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In The Know #2: Vintage Play Scenarios Examined

In the second installment of this excellent series, Josh examines two fresh scenarios involving Gifts and Uba Stax decks. Armed with the collective insights of a variety of top Vintage players, the correct play is dissected and discussed. This time, however, there is dissension in the ranks… do you agree with the decisions?

Hello again, gentle readers… and welcome to another edition of In The Know. This week I’ll be looking at two Gifts scenarios: one involving hand decisions, and another tackling a mid-game countering decision. In response to the feedback I got last time – mostly all positive – I attempted to put more leeway in the scenarios.

For this set of scenarios we have: Jesus Roxas (REB), Ben Kowal (Kowal), Matt Ladwig (Hydra), Jim Gaffney (Godot) and Peter Olszewski (DicemanX).

Scenario 1

You have Gifts (you run a maindeck Rebuild and Rack and Ruin).
Opponent has Uba Stax.
You are on the draw.

Mulligan or no?

Your opening hand is as follows:

Volcanic Island,
Underground Sea,
Black Lotus,
Thirst for Knowledge,
Mystical Tutor,
Pithing Needle,
Burning Wish.

Question #1: Do you mulligan?
1a: If you mulligan, why?

Question #2: If the Uba Stax player plays a Mishra’s Workshop, Mox, Uba Mask, what would your initial play be?

Question #3: If you were on the play, what would your initial play be?

DicemanX
1) I would keep any hands with two lands, a Pithing Needle, and a Mystical Tutor (with the idea of going land, Pithing Needle on Wasteland, followed by an upkeep Mystical Tutor for Ancestral Recall, depending on what my opponent plays). This guarantees a turn 2 Ancestral Recall barring a Strip Mine (low chance) or Chalice of the Void for one (which is unlikely, since they will either Chalice for zero without Null Rod, or save it to make a Chalice for two). If they don’t Null Rod/Chalice, you have a useful Lotus that you can easily turn into a Rack and Ruin or Thirst for Knowledge, which is fantastic.

The Burning Wish is like a temporary mulligan to six as it is, but you cannot be sacrificing hands where you have stable mana sources (thanks to the Pithing Needle) and a good tutor (which can find Rack and Ruin or Ancestral Recall) in the hopes of finding something better. And what could be better? Three basics, a fetchland, and a Rack and Ruin? You have to hope that this hand can hold up, because its success is contingent on their hands/initial draws. If they have the wrong “answers” and start flailing away with Goblin Welder, Null Rod, Crucible of Worlds, and Chalice of the Void, then your opening hand was worth it.

The two biggest issues with this match-up is the Gifts deck’s ability to generate stable mana sources and not lose permanents to Smokestack. Uba Mask can also be a problem, although at least it doesn’t mess with the manabase – it just nails your ability to develop it by cutting off certain draw spells. Card drawing is essential to see enough lands, but if they get Uba Mask online to deal with card drawing you can assume (or hope) that they won’t see other lock pieces (if they do, then they might have hit their nut draws, and you can’t worry about that). That gives you some time to find your artifact removal, or Gifts into more mana/whatever is relevant at that time.

2) My play would be land, Pithing Needle on Wasteland. There is no longer any major reason to hold back on the Lotus (Brainstorm and Thirst for Knowledge are disabled for the time being, and you want to sidestep any topdecked Chalices for zero), so I would play it too – you certainly want to represent a Mana Drain to discourage a ridiculous Chalice for two or three, or a Smokestack. If they play another damaging artifact during their turn then you still have the option of Tutoring up a Rack and Ruin and nailing their stuff with the Lotus.

3) My initial play would be Underground Sea, Black Lotus, go. I don’t mind if they plop down Wasteland and kill the land, because I can still Mystical for Ancestral Recall and have a second land to play it – if they have the two Mox and Chalice for backup then okay, they “win,” but chances are more likely that they will pass the turn with nothing else.

I also want the Lotus represent a Mana Drain to discourage a big artifact from hitting play, but even if they go for it – and play Mask, for instance – I can Thirst for Knowledge in response, and even have the Needle to discard if absolutely necessary (or Burning Wish and whatever I drew off the Thirst that I deemed useless). I can also Thirst in response to Null Rod, and use Mystical Tutor at end of turn to get Ancestral Recall if need be. Then, on my turn, I can play my second land to use Ancestral Recall, and cast Pithing Needle on Wasteland as well.

In any case, I cannot start worrying about their disruption spells. I will be seeing at least three new cards in case of emergency, and maybe more depending on their first turn play.

REB
1) I wouldn’t mulligan, especially if I knew my opponent was playing Uba Stax. It’s a solid enough hand, though obviously a fetchland over either dual would have made it far better. It even has early access to Tinker and Ancestral Recall, should you feel the need to tutor them up for one reason or another. Sure, the hand has Burning Wish – which is like a six-card starter in this situation – but there’s nothing I can do about that. The thing I’d be most concerned about here is the lack of counters, but against Uba Stax this hand has enough tools for that not to be a problem.

2) I would play a land, play Pithing Needle naming Wasteland, play Black Lotus and pass the turn. This play does a few things:

A. Obviously, the dual I play here getting hit by Wasteland would be disastrous, which is why I would opt to cast the Needle naming Wasteland at this point.
B. Playing the Lotus here maximizes your options for the future. If Chalice of the Void or Sphere of Resistance comes down, the Lotus would be a hindrance to cast. It also allows for a Mana Drain bluff.
C. I would probably play the Volcanic Island first, because I might want cast Thirst at the end of their turn, untap, cast Mystical Tutor during my upkeep, and then play a Black spell if I drew one off Thirst in my main phase. Opening with the Volcanic Island can also trick certain players (you know who you are) into thinking you are playing Control Slaver and not Gifts. Neither of these things really matter all that much, but leaving options open and getting every little possible edge are good things.

3) On the play, I’d still keep the hand. If I knew that my opponent was playing Uba Stax, I’d do what I did above. If not, opening with Lotus, Thirst for Knowledge in order to dig for a fetchland and/or a counter seems like the right play. Waiting until the opponent’s turn only gives them more time to dig for a way to counter your Thirst – up to four additional cards with a Brainstorm – if they are playing counters, so that’s a bad idea.

General Conclusion for Scenario 1

For question 1, both players decided not to mulligan (I’m sure some would be surprised that anyone would, but I’ve gotten a few) because the hand was simply too good to pitch back. They also agreed on question 2 that land, Lotus, and Needle was the best play for not getting destroyed on subsequent turns.

On question 3 however, we have a difference in opinion, which I actually expected. Part of it comes down to asking yourself if you’re willing to name blind Needle against Uba Stax, and another is how you want to answer whatever Uba Stax may do on its turn. Peter simply accepts that if they have the right threats, you’ll be in deep trouble, meanwhile Jesus (teehee) was generally of the opinion that keeping the manabase stable is one step towards winning as-is.

The game state

Scenario 2
Your playing Gifts (Thirst for Knowledge, maindeck Pithing Needle).
You are on the draw.
Your opponent is playing an unknown blue deck and has mulliganed to six.

It’s turn 2, and you have an Island and Polluted Delta in play.
Your opponent has Island, Volcanic Island, and Mox Emerald out.

Your hand:

Mana Drain,
Thirst for Knowledge,
Pithing Needle,
Mox Pearl,
Mox Jet,
Polluted Delta,
Gifts Ungiven .

You have nothing in the graveyard.

Your opponent has four cards in hand and a Polluted Delta in his graveyard.

Question #1: Do you play anything on your turn? Why or why not?

Now, here’s some dead space before the next part of this, for those of you playing at home.

After you cast anything/pass the turn, the opponent casts an end-of-turn Thirst for Knowledge.

Question #2: Depending on your earlier play, what’s the optimal response?

Question #3: Would knowing your opponent having Black Lotus and Yawgmoth’s Will in hand, with 2 cards (one of which you now know to be Thirst for Knowledge. Lucky cheaters) change the way you would play this out?

Kowal
1) I would play the Mox Jet and pass the turn so I can keep my options open. It ensures I have 2U to cast Thirst for Knowledge, and gives me something to do on my opponent’s end step. Causing them to tap out gives me a window to resolve Gifts Ungiven for spells that win. Assuming the worst-case scenario, I still have the UU online for Mana Drain.

2) In my opinion, the optimal response would be to Thirst for Knowledge in response. If they Force of Will your Thirst, you’ve effectively countered their draw spell by forcing two cards from their hand. If they don’t, your card draw resolves, and you definitely have something worth getting rid of via Thirst for Knowledge to ensure you make out on the deal. If I draw Force of Will with Thirst, I wouldn’t use it. Force will be put to much better use helping defend my Gifts Ungiven later, and it’s unlikely that my opponent will cast something game-ending on his own turn with additional backup earned via Thirst for Knowledge.

3) My opponent has a crappy graveyard, with only Black Lotus and Thirst for Knowledge to work with. While I’ll be the first to admit a Brainstorm or something un-intimidating still turns this Will into a very broken effect, I’m likely to be sitting on five amazing cards and some mana myself. If my opponent shows no additional gas outside of Lotus and Thirst, or possibly even some gas like the aforementioned Brainstorm, I’d let the Will resolve. Allowing them to draw four cards while preserving my stacked hand – while removing their Will from the game – is a fair trade to make. The only reason I would ever counter a Will that early and that weak is if I had only counters going on for me, or if I had Mana Drain online and needed the Drain mana to win the following turn. Neither of these is true, so my solution works fine for me.

Hydra
1) So it’s the top of the 8th inning, with players on 1st and 2nd and one out. Your relief pitcher has been starting to lose it, so you need to… Err, oops. Wrong scenario.

The hand in question offers a lot of ways to play it out. Since you’ve already played your land for the turn, it’s a question of whether or not to play out Moxes, and if so, how many? Pithing Needle is a potential asset in this scenario, as the Volcanic Island clearly points your opponent towards either Control Slaver or a Gifts variant. If he’s playing Control Slaver or Brassman-style Gifts, then Needle can cut off one of their respective win conditions, if it hits play and the opponent has no answer. However, until you have evidence to suggest which build, the Needle needs to stay in hand.

Due to the fact that Pithing Needle is a possible asset at this point and you have the third land in hand, I’d only play one of the two Moxen in my hand. Since it’s on-color, Jet would get the nod. That way, if my opponent doesn’t play anything, I can cast Thirst at the end of his turn and not have to discard the Pithing Needle if I don’t draw into another artifact. If I draw into another Needle then I can pitch the first without issues and keep my Mox. Otherwise, I will still have the mana to cast Gifts Ungiven next turn.

2) The opponent is tapped out, so walking into a Mana Drain is out of the question, meaning he can only protect this Thirst with Force of Will or Misdirection. At this point, my opponent is already behind a card and him using Force of Will/Misdirection on Mana Drain – should I choose to counter – would put him behind two cards. If he does Force/Misdirect, then the last card has to be an artifact or he needs to draw one, or else he’s put himself in a very awkward position.

If he doesn’t counter, then he will have four cards (three in hand plus one off of the draw step) to do whatever he wishes with on his turn. In this early stage of the game, he lacks the mana to truly abuse the “free” turn he bought himself unless he was holding back multiple artifact mana, which would also limit the number of cards he has that could do anything truly threatening. If he’s holding Tinker, Time Walk, and Black Lotus, top decking into Ancestral Recall, then obviously I’d be in a bad position… but the chances of him holding such a hand are small.

Then there’s the option of using Thirst yourself and seeing if you can dig for Force of Will. In this early stage of the game I don’t think this is the right play, as you’ll be setting yourself behind four cards (Thirst, random artifact, Force of Will, and random Blue card), which would put you on equal footing with your opponent.

The final available option is doing nothing and allowing your opponent to potentially refill their hand. Since you’re already at an advantage card-wise, I don’t feel this is the wisest of choices either.

With all of this in mind, I would break the Delta for a Volcanic Island and then Mana Drain. If he has the Force or a Misdirection then the scenario I described above would take place, and I have more than enough strong cards in my hand to overpower all but the most broken draws off of the Thirst. If he doesn’t, then unless he has an already broken hand I have a chance to use the Drain mana to pull ahead with card advantage next turn.

3) I don’t think so. My evaluation of Pithing Needle remains the same, as Lotus and Will is in both Control Slaver and Gifts, so I would still play the Mox Jet and then pass the turn. In this scenario I’d still try to Drain the Thirst, as I know that my opponent can’t possibly have a counter outside of a random Daze. That would give him Lotus, Will, and two cards on his turn. Depending on the two remaining cards left, it would be foolish on his part to attempt Will. There is no real benefit to it unless he’s holding/drawing into Ancestral Recall. Without a card like that the best he could muster would be recasting Thirst for Knowledge, which doesn’t scare me nearly as much as a Will enabler on the Will turn as it does during my turn. I’d expect my opponent to draw, perhaps play a land and pass the turn with that hand, allowing me to use the three mana from Drain to develop.

Godot
1) I play the Mox Jet to bluff Thirst for Knowledge, and pass the turn. I have no intentions of casting the Thirst at this point, but it gives the opponent something extra to think about. Given the information I have thus far, I can’t reliably put my opponent on a specific Blue-based control deck, but since the Mox Jet is strictly superior to the Mox Pearl, there’s no harm in playing it. However, the relative value of the Mox Pearl and Pithing Needle change significantly depending on what my opponent is playing, so it’s better to hold them back until I have more information. This way I can make an informed decision when I do cast Thirst for Knowledge.

Another option is to play both Pearl and Jet to accelerate into Gifts Ungiven, but at this point I don’t have enough mana/protection to accelerate into a game winning Gifts pile, and there really isn’t a safe card advantage pile. Right now, Gifts is a weak play, which makes this an inferior option.

2) I let the Thirst for Knowledge resolve. If I was holding Force of Will as well as Mana Drain then I would consider countering it, depending on how badly my opponent appeared to want it to resolve. With only one piece of countermagic, Thirst is not worth countering for a few reasons. First, as a pure card advantage/quality engine, Thirst for Knowledge is not particularly threatening. Second, my opponent played Mox Emerald. Since they played the Emerald, it doesn’t appear likely that they have a low value mana artifact to pitch. As a result, there’s a greater likelihood that they’ll pitch something that gives away what deck it is – Needle, Slaver, Time Vault, miscellaneous big artifact, etc.

With Thirst on the stack I can reliably put my opponent on Thirst Gifts or Control Slaver, but this doesn’t exactly help me. I still don’t know how to properly value the Mox Pearl and Pithing Needle. Whether I can put them on a specific deck after the Thirst resolves determines how I play out the rest of the game. If they are playing Thirst Gifts, then my default plan becomes to play land and Mox Pearl on my next turn to set up Thirst for Knowledge (with Pithing Needle to pitch) with Mana Drain backup on their next end step. I am fine with playing a long game against the mirror, but this changes if they are playing Control Slaver.

Control Slaver excels at winning a long attrition war, so I’ll be more aggressive to try and win in the mid-game. In this case, I will run out the Thirst on their end step, and even if they counter it I’m still holding Drain, business spells, and a strong answer. In the worst-case scenario, I still don’t know what deck it is and on their end step my play will greatly depend on what mana they have in play (and if they did anything on their own turn). My most likely course of action is to play like my opponent has Thirst Gifts, since it’s the more popular deck in the current metagame.

3) No.

General Conclusions for Scenario 2

Now, this is interesting. Everyone pretty much agreed that playing the Mox Jet and then passing the turn is the move you want to be making. They also agreed that even if the opponent had two broken cards in hand, it wouldn’t change their minds on the course of action they chose. However, we have three different opinions of the optimal response to an opposing Thirst for Knowledge. To recap:

Kowal: Cast own Thirst for Knowledge in response.
Matt: Cast Mana Drain on Thirst for Knowledge.
Godot: Let Thirst for Knowledge resolve and then assess options.

Note that there are a few things in common in each person’s reasoning. Everyone realized that they’re well ahead at this stage of the game. All of them have accepted they currently lack the deck information required to make completely optimal play decisions.

So now that you’ve seen three people answer, what do you think? I expect to see some decent responses in the forums (or TMD), especially since a few of you wanted to see division on opinions. Remember that the people I’ve asked to do write-ups have not seen the other responses until now… so maybe we’ll even see a few of the people here defend their decisions. If there’s a particularly good write-up for this scenario/defending one of the decisions, I’ll even add it to the next article.

In conclusion, congrats to my friend Rich Shay for winning Richmond SCG Day 1 with a “dead” deck. I guess now I can do a Control Slaver scenario again, eh?

Joshua Silvestri
Email me at: JoshDOTsilvestriATgmailDOTcom
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