It’s Monday, T-minus five days until GP Atlanta, and I’m pumped. I’ve been playing Extended for the last three months, and I have a
pretty good read on the metagame. If you haven’t been paying attention, don’t worry; I’m going to get you in tip-top shape for the
trade tables. Let’s start with a simple question: “What’s the most expensive rare in Extended?”
That’s right! Thoughtseize retails for $30 at the moment. That makes it the most expensive rare and the fourth most expensive card in Extended.
The only cards that are more expensive are:
Jace, the Mind Sculptor 99.99
Primeval Titan 39.99
Vengevine 36.99
I was totally broadsided by the current price of Thoughtseize. The way I found out was that someone on Twitter posted a despairing remark about
Thoughtseize being $30. My first reaction was, “No way!” I went to StarCityGames.com and looked it up; there it was with its $30 price tag.
After doing a Twitter poll and asking people at the PTQ about the pricing of different Extended cards, I noticed that a lot of people are missing
information on the real price of cards. I knew that I wanted to write about it, so I pulled up the most recent PTQ data and the data from the Magic
Online daily queues. I made a list of every card from the best performing decks, and that’s what I’m going to show you today. Let’s
start with the mythic rares.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor 99.99
Primeval Titan  39.99
Vengevine        36.99
Koth of the Hammer     24.99
Gideon Jura     19.99
Venser, the Sojourner   19.99
Lotus Cobra     17.99
Eldrazi Monument         16.99
Baneslayer Angel         14.99
Elspeth Tirel     14.99
Elspeth, Knight-Errant   11.99
Wurmcoil Engine          11.99
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn           9.99
Jace Beleren    9.99
Molten-Tail Masticore    9.99
Linvala, Keeper of Silence        7.99
Sarkhan Vol     7.99
Sun Titan         7.99
Iona, Shield of Emeria  6.99
Master of the Wild Hunt 3.99
Rafiq of the Many        3.99
It’s important to note that some of these prices are driven by Standard as well as Extended. I’m not going to talk about all the cards on the
list. Instead I’m going to pick a couple that I think have potential to rise in price and some cards that I think are important to take note of for
other reasons. Let’s start with the pick-up recommendations.
Mythics to Pick Up
It’s hard to actually generate value on the cards that are higher on the list because it’s more likely that these cards are at peak value
or close to it. I’d rather pick up cards that have potential to grow. The cards that interest me most on this list are.
Wurmcoil Engine
This card is one of the go-to cards against Jund in Extended, especially in the sideboard of Faeries. When a format is new, you have to watch cards to
see if they’re going to be mainstays in the format or decks that run them. This card is a mainstay in the Fae sideboard, and it’s also finding
its way into the maindeck of most 4CC builds; even though this deck is falling out of favor for now, 4CC will still be a player this season. The amount
of play that this is seeing would justify a higher price tag if a promo hadn’t been printed.
Linvala, Keeper of Silence
I’ve been talking about this card for some time now. It’s the kind of card that people are going to continually need, and its full-price
potential has yet to be realized. Naya and Mythic Conscription are both decks that have been starting to pop up in the Extended metagame. Many of these
decks are running 3-4 Linvalas in the sideboard to battle opposing Fauna Shaman, mana creatures, and Knights of the Reliquary. I expect this card’s
price to rise over the PTQ season as these decks grow in popularity. There’s also a U/W Control List that may also start making use of Linvala in the
sideboard.
Sun Titan
Speaking of U/W control, Sun Titan has found his home as a four-of in the UW list. It turns out that bringing back cards like Kitchen Finks or
Vendilion Clique is pretty good. I didn’t crunch the data, but I’m pretty sure that Sun Titan is the most-played Titan in Extended.
It’s in the sideboard of Wargate / Omen decks, and it’s even run in the sideboard of Naya. Once the supply dries up on this guy, he’s going
to start rising in price. My recommendation is to start picking these up now, especially if you can get the promos cheap.
Mythics to Note
Magic finance is not all about what to pick up and what to sell. If I could sum Magic finance up in one word, it would be “information.” 90% of my
conversations in the Magic world start like this, “Medina, what do you think of X?” Information is important because it helps you make
decisions on the fly, which is crucial to trading profitably. Let’s look at some mythics that need to be looked at.
Vengevine
Note the price of Vengevine. The combination of its lack of play in Standard and the Survival banning took the price down to $30 for a small amount of
time. Now that Naya decks in Extended are running Vengevine, and PTQ season is starting to gear up, the price is back to the $35 to $40 price range.
Why do I mention this? Who care what the price was, right? The truth is that people tend to be either behind or too ahead in their pricing.
This means that either they checked the price of Vengevine a few weeks ago, and they still think it’s worth $30, or they see that it’s
seeing a lot of play, and they overprice it to $45; this is what happens when you don’t have the information. You have to rely on old information
to make guesses. Before I move onto the next mythic, I’m going to blow your mind really quick.
I know someone who traded a Vengevine for six Venser, the Sojourners yesterday at a PTQ. No, it wasn’t me, and yes, I’m just going to leave
it at that.
Koth of the Hammer
This is another one that people continually overprice; some people think that Koth is still worth $40. You can see from the data that it’s not. I
don’t think that a mono-red card can really ever be too high in price. I don’t quite understand the psychology behind this phenomenon, but
if you look back at the red cards over time, they rarely ever break $20 and stay there.
The Twins (Elspeths)
I would keep an eye on both Elspeths. Elspeth, Knight-Errant is seeing play in the Naya deck that I talked about above; it also sees sporadic Legacy
play. I expect Knight-Errant to go up over the Extended season. Elspeth Tirel is seeing a small amount of play in Extended, and it’s seeing play
in the Caw-Go deck in Standard. Naturally, this will see a small bump in price, but I’m still not convinced that it has what it takes to really take
off.
Rares
We talked about Thoughtseize in the beginning of the article, but now let’s talk about the other rares that are in the format. It’s a long
list, but maybe you can print it out for Atlanta.
Thoughtseize    29.99   Sold Out
Mutavault         19.99   Sold Out
Bitterblossom  15.99  Â
Cryptic Command        14.99  Â
Reflecting Pool 14.99Â Â Â
Verdant Catacombs      13.99  Â
Scalding Tarn   12.99  Â
Arid Mesa        11.99  Â
Misty Rainforest           11.99  Â
Noble Hierarch 11.99  Â
Prismatic Omen 11.99Â Â Â Sold Out
Demigod of Revenge   9.99     Sold Out
Figure of Destiny         9.99    Â
Goblin Guide    9.99    Â
Maelstrom Pulse          9.99     Sold Out
Marsh Flats      9.99    Â
Stoneforge Mystic        9.99    Â
Vendilion Clique           9.99    Â
Knight of the Reliquary 8.99    Â
Fauna Shaman 7.99    Â
Flooded Grove 7.99    Â
Ratchet Bomb  7.99    Â
Creeping Tar Pit           6.99    Â
Sunken Ruins   6.99    Â
Cascade Bluffs 5.99Â Â Â Â Â Sold Out
Fetid Heath      5.99     Sold Out
Murmuring Bosk           5.99    Â
Mystic Gate     5.99    Â
Sower of Temptation    5.99    Â
Twilight Mire     5.99     Sold Out
Basilisk Collar  4.99    Â
Celestial Colonnade      4.99    Â
Coralhelm Commander 4.99    Â
Fire-Lit Thicket  4.99    Â
Fulminator Mage          4.99    Â
Student of Warfare       4.99    Â
Summoning Trap          4.99    Â
Glen Elendra Archmage 4.49Â Â Â Â Â Sold Out
Ball Lightning   3.99    Â
Blackcleave Cliffs        3.99    Â
Consume the Meek       3.99    Â
Consuming Vapors       3.99    Â
Darkslick Shores          3.99    Â
Graven Cairns  3.99    Â
Leyline of Sanctity        3.99    Â
Obstinate Baloth          3.99    Â
Oran-Rief, the Vastwood           3.99    Â
Raging Ravine  3.99    Â
Ranger of Eos 3.99
Reveillark         3.99
Scapeshift       3.99
Seachrome Coast         3.99
Wooded Bastion          3.99
Birds of Paradise         3.49
Gaddock Teeg 3.49
Mistbind Clique 3.49
Scion of Oona 3.49
Secluded Glen 3.49
Day of Judgment         3.25
Glacial Fortress 3.25
Chameleon Colossus    2.99
Copperline Gorge         2.99
Dauntless Escort          2.99
Drowned Catacomb      2.99
Elvish Archdruid           2.99    Â
Ezuri, Renegade Leader 2.99Â Â Â Â Â
Genesis Wave  2.99    Â
Hell’s Thunder  2.99    Â
Joraga Warcaller          2.99    Â
Knight of the White Orchid        2.99    Â
Lavaclaw Reaches        2.99    Â
Memoricide      2.99    Â
Necrotic Ooze  2.99    Â
Primal Command          2.99     Sold Out
Regal Force     2.99     Sold Out
Windbrisk Heights        2.99    Â
Honor of the Pure         2.75    Â
Leaf-Crowned Elder      2.49    Â
Razorverge Thicket       2.49    Â
Runed Halo      2.49     Sold Out
Sovereigns of Lost Alara          2.49
Eldrazi Conscription     1.99
Great Sable Stag          1.99
Mosswort Bridge          1.99
Stirring Wildwood         1.99
Sunpetal Grove 1.99
Sword of Vengeance    1.99
Sygg, River Cutthroat   1.99
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle     1.99
Wall of Reverence        1.99
Wargate           1.99
Cruel Ultimatum 1.49
Fracturing Gust 1.49
Leyline of Punishment  1.49
Mul Daya Channelers    1.49
Tunnel Ignus     1.49
Cloudthresher   0.99
Conqueror’s Pledge      0.99
Gilt-Leaf Archdruid       0.99
Grim Poppet    0.99
Mark of Asylum 0.99
Sunblast Angel 0.99
Identity Crisis   0.75
Caldera Hellion 0.49
Manabarbs       0.49
Masked Admirers         0.49
Of those cards, here are the cards that are sold out on Star City Games.
Thoughtseize
Mutavault
Prismatic Omen
Demigod of Revenge
Maelstrom Pulse
Cascade Bluffs
Fetid Heath
Twilight Mire
Glen Elendra Archmage
Primal Command
Regal Force
Runed Halo
I always use the “sold out” information as a tool for finding what’s going to be hot. The first thing that I want to note is that three of
these cards are filter lands. Specifically, the filter lands are from Eventide, which is a set that wasn’t opened as much as Shadowmoor. I recommend
picking these up as early as you can in the season, i.e. now. You should ship them in the middle of the season when things are at their height.
The other thing that you should notice is that the other cards in this list are associated with two of the “best decks” (with the exception
of Prismatic Omen). Thoughtseize and Mutavault are mainstays in Fae, and Maelstrom Pulse is a mainstay in Jund. Demigod of Revenge is becoming a staple
in Jund now with the addition of Fauna Shaman. I’ve noticed a rush for these in the last week, and I don’t expect them to stay at their
current price for long.
Rares to Pick Up
Naturally, you want to pick up any of the cards listed above if you can get a good deal, but I’ll give you my picks for cards that I think still
have more room to grow.
Primal Command
This card is a player in the Elf Combo deck in Extended. It helps you get combo pieces as well as cash in on your early-game mana advantage by putting
a land on top of your opponent’s deck. It’s also run in some versions of Conley Woods‘ Necrotic Ooze deck. This card is really cheap right
now, and if either of these strategies takes off, then you can expect to see the card jump.
Glen Elendra Archmage
The success of this card is tied to two things: the success of Reveillark decks and the rise of 4CC or non-creature combo decks. Reveillark has been
making an appearance in the Extended dailies on Magic Online. I expect that as the Extended metagame evolves, this card will become more and more
relevant.
Ranger of Eos
This guy was a role player in the artifact deck that was doing well for a moment. I haven’t seen the artifact deck lately; I suppose that
it’s because of the rise of “real” creature decks, like Mythic Conscription, Naya, and Jund. The good news is that Ranger is also a
player in Naya and in a mono-white deck that’s starting to see play. Every time I trade this card, a little voice in my head tells me not to.
There are a lot of subtleties to be found in the list of rares above. If you’ve been watching trends, then you’ll notice that cards like Leyline
of Sanctity, Summoning Trap, and Fulminator Mage have been rising in price. It’s hard to get behind cards like this because their strategies
either haven’t proven themselves or the cards haven’t proven themselves as role players. For example, Wargate lists have dropped Leyline
from their 75. Fulminator Mage is good with Reveillark and in the Ooze deck, but does it have what it takes to be a staple? These are the kind of
things that need to be considered when making investments.
Uncommons
It’s easy to get good value on Extended uncommons, so before I get out of here, I want to give you a list of uncommons that should be in your
trade binder when you hit the trade floor in Atlanta.
Anathemancer .49
Bloodbraid Elf 2.99
Boggart Ram-Gang 1.99 Out of Stock
Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender .99
Cunning Sparkmage .49
Flame Javelin 1.99
Guttural Response .99
Hellspark Elemental 1.99
Heritage Druid .99
Inquisition of Kozilek 1.25
Joraga Treespeaker 1.49
Kitchen Finks 3.99
Path to Exile 3.99
Shriekmaw .99
Spectral Procession 1.99 Out of Stock
Tattermunge Maniac 1.99
Tectonic Edge 1.99
Volcanic Fallout .99
Wall of Omens 1.99
War Priest of Thune .49
Woolly Thoctar .49
That’s all I have for today, guys. Thanks for reading, and see you in Atlanta!