My plan for this week was to write an article that one Patrick Chapin suggested I write. I had every intention of sticking to this plan… until the Vancouver results came in. After I picked my jaw up off the floor, I realized there wasn’t really anything else I could possibly write about this week; if anyone can tell me they saw that Top 8 coming, I’m sincerely impressed. Rude Awakening in the maindeck takes home the crown? No Ideal, but two TEPS? Death Cloud makes it, but Doran and Dredge don’t? Two seventy-five card identical copies of U/G Tron? Wow. About the only predictable part about this result was that an expert wielding a Next Level Blue build hoisted the trophy.
Vancouver is rare in that we actually have access to the Top 64 decklists, which is more in line with what one would have expected. Doran, Dredge, Ideal, Goblins, Zoo, Death Cloud, Affinity, Next Level Blue, and so forth. Not quite in the proportions I would have expected, but all represented nonetheless. Still, however wise or unwise this may be, PTQ players tend to sideline these Top 64 results to focus almost exclusively on the eight that get front-page coverage.
Whenever we get a surprising Top 8 like this, there’s always a bit of a frenzy. Deck switches begin. Card prices go up. Emergency, last-minute playtesting happens (or doesn’t). Even if you aren’t one of the guys thinking “that U/G Tron deck looks sick,” abandoning your current weapon of choice to jump aboard a new train, you know that other people are doing exactly that, and that you must be prepared for them.
In either case, you’ve got a week to prepare. My article goes up on Thursday, so I won’t be as much short-term help as I’d like to be – and besides, I’m sure I won’t the only one discussing this topic – so in order to overlap as little as possible with the other writers, while still maximizing your Vancouver takeaways, I’ve decided to write about a topic that has more long-term usefulness: the process of rapidly dissemination a Top 8 result.
Looking at a new tournament result and figuring out how it will impact your deck choices (and the metagame going forward) is a critical skill to have whenever a tournament shakes things up. Mark my words, Vancouver will shake things up, and although this article might not be as helpful as it could be because you’ll read it on Thursday, my goal is that the next time something like this happens, you’ll be able to sue this as a reference right there on Sunday Night to give some direction to your learning process.
Where to begin?
Step 1: Note who played which Archetypes in the Top 8
This is basic. You need to know not only which archetypes made a showing, but also who played them. If a “name” player did well with a deck, there is a higher probability that it will be picked up by PTQers. If an unknown pilot did well with it, it will generally be less popular unless it looks very strong, gets a lot of press, or is especially innovative and exciting. Variations of existing archetypes, piloted by unknowns, and which include questionable card choices, are often left by the wayside despite posting the Top 8.
This is an important first step, because it informs how your gauntlet will be affected by the results. Neither Michael Gurney nor Hunter Coale are household names, but taking a look at their different approaches to Next Level Blue and Chase Rare Control, respectively, can help you anticipate which will have a bigger impact on the PTQs.
Coale’s build has no particularly surprising numbers: four copies of most spells, except threes for Trinket Mage and Shackles, with a pair each of Cryptic Commands and Explosives batting cleanup. Understandably, Miren, Academy Ruins, and Tormod’s Crypt are each one-ofs. Besides the Sunbeam Spellbomb in his board (a fascinating Trinket Mage choice) and the two Tsabo’s Decrees, nothing really stands out as questionable.
Gurney’s build, on the other hand, reads like a Jim Roy list. One Venser, one Putrefy, one Smother, one Shackles, two apiece of Counterbalance and Sensei’s Divining Top, three Dark Confidants, and a sideboard that is nearly all one-ofs and two-ofs. While every single one of these card choices might be one hundred percent justified, few PTQ players will take the time to determine that. Most will write the list off as “a mess,” assume Gurney made the Top 8 more on luck than on (deckbuilding, at least) skill, and move on. If you do a more thorough analysis and conclude that his choices have a lot of merit, do not assume that other PTQ players will have been so thorough; doing so can skew your playtesting towards a matchup that you are not likely to face.
When a new variant of an existing archetype pops up that does look like it might be adopted, take care to note the defining characteristics that separate it from the established builds. “Previous Level Blue,” the Next Level Blue variant Cheon rode to victory, has Ancestral Vision but no Trinket Mage. If your opponent suspends an Ancestral in your next PTQ, make sure you know you’re up against Previous Level and not Next Level, and do not feel obliged to play around Trinket Mage if it might hurt your chances at victory. PLB also distinguishes itself by splashing Red and Black, but not White – though in this format, be careful… anyone can splash anything whenever they please, so do not be quick to judge a deck Next Level or Previous Level by its splash colors alone. Take it as a clue, and nothing more.
Step 2: Examine the Card Choices of the Top 8 Decks
Go down the list, deck by deck, and scrutinize each one for technology. (It shouldn’t take that long – there are only eight of them!) Was there anything in these decks that was not in your gauntlet builds? If the deck passed muster in the previous step, make sure to update your decks with the new technology; the players piloting those decks will.
Pay close attention to the sideboard cards. You can’t expect people to copy sideboards card-for-card, as players will generally adapt their boards based on what decks they are expecting at their next tournament. However, they will pick up on technology if they think that tech will help solve problems they are looking to solve. Tsabo’s Decree hasn’t gotten much press, but it made two different sideboards in this Top 8 — including the winning list. Though their maindecks disagreed slightly, both TEPS players had identical sideboards, including three copies apiece of Slaughter Pact and Pact of Negation. Expect TEPS to wield those this season, and don’t think for a moment that your Gaddock Teegs are safe post-board.
Like the previous step, this is quite basic – but you’d be surprised how many people miss it. Previous Level Blue has a Rude Awakening in the main. Did that catch your eye? Probably so. Did you also notice the two Repeals and the four Cryptic Commands? Other Next Level Blue variants have had as few as two Commands and zero Repeals for bounce effects, often looking to Engineered Explosives – which are entirely absent in Previous Level Blue – to deal with problem permanents. This should greatly inform your in-game decisions as to whether or not you should play around a bounce effect; Previous Level has six, so watch out for them. Likewise, Next Level generally played either Force Spike or Spell Snare, while Previous plays both. If an opponent Force Spikes your turn 1 play, can you stop playing around Spell Snare? Not anymore.
As for Death Cloud and U/G Tron, consider that this is the first time either deck has gotten some real time in the limelight. Patrick Chapin has dedicated multiple articles to Next Level Blue, and TEPS was a heavy hitter last season, but neither is true for Death Cloud or U/G Tron. Those jumping ship on their existing decks to pick up either of these decks based on their results at Vancouver will play these maindecks (and likely similar sideboards), and many experienced Death Cloud and Tron players will “update” to the Vancouver builds as well.
For these two decks, I suggest updating your gauntlet maindecks (if not sideboards) to reflect the lists that made Top 8 here, and adding Previous Level Blue to the mix, in addition to whatever Next Level Blue you were testing against (I expect both will see play after this tournament). We were fortunate that only one Death Cloud and one U/G Tron build surfaced in the Vancouver lists; gauntlet choices get stickier if divergent builds appear in the same Top 8. When that happens, Step 1 becomes more important than ever, as you try to project how people will accept them. Does one “clearly” look better than the other? If so, it may be reasonable to infer that other people will come to the same conclusion, meaning you should include only that build in your gauntlet. Do they both look reasonable? Are they different enough that you should include a copy of each, or should you just test against one while keeping the card choices of the other in mind? Will some players try to blend the two lists together, borrowing elements of each? These are all good questions to ask when this happens, though we were fortunate enough to not see it here.
Step 3: Read all the Coverage
This is more time-consuming than the other steps, but it is also important. Start with the Top 8 matches, to further familiarize yourself with those decks. Ben Lundquist, the designer of the U/G Tron build that put both of its pilots (the other being Zack Hall) into the semifinals, remarked the following during the match: “I wish I hadn’t taught you how to play this mirror match.” What play prompted this comment? Gifts for Tormod’s Crypt, Mindslaver, Life from the Loam, and Tolaria West – cast with Ben’s Simic Signet on the stack, when it could not yet produce the Blue Ben needed to produce a counter.
If you are a U/G Tron player, remember that play. Note that including Tolaria West in the package is better than just a Tron piece or Academy Ruins, as West can repeatedly fetch out Tron pieces and Academy Ruins when recurred via Life from the Loam. Even if you are not a Tron player, look at this play and realize what it means if you let a Gifts Ungiven resolve; your opponent could be completing the entire Tron and fetching Academy Ruins and searching up Mindslaver off as little as a single Gifts. If you have not been testing against U/G Tron prior to this event, you will have some catching up to do, and reading about plays like this in the coverage can help a lot.
Don’t limit yourself to the Top 8, though. Moving on to TEPS (but staying with Ben), look at the round 9 feature match. Lundquist Condescends Paquette’s Seething Song for three, when Paquette has two open, and Paquette pays for it with a Cabal Ritual. If you haven’t played against TEPS since last season, you may need to brush up on plays like this if you go with U/G Tron. If you’re inclined to game with Next Level or Previous Level, pay attention to Cheon’s match against Jason Fleurant, especially game 3, for some examples of how to use Cryptic Command as a tool for racing.
None of these plays are necessarily rocket science, but even discovering one play per tournament that you did not think of can make a significant impact on your play at the next PTQ. My examples were both from matches in which one player eventually made Top 8, but you can learn plenty from reading coverage of matches where neither player ended up in the elimination rounds.
Step 4: Consider a Deck Change
So far I’ve talked a lot about updating your gauntlet, but there is a very real chance that you may want to switch decks based on the results of a tournament. There are a lot of factors that can go into this decision. For one, how will your existing deck handle the surge in popularity of the new archetypes in the Top 8? Are you still in good shape in an environment that includes these decks? Moreover, which decks will decrease in popularity due to the results of this tournament? I can see Doran declining in particular after Vancouver; was your matchup against Doran one of the key selling points of your deck?
If you do decide to adopt one of the tournament’s top-finishing lists, make sure not to make the mistake of thinking you are the only one who will do so. There will be mirror matches, and the list you choose may not be set up for them. You can have an edge if you playtest that mirror, or – even better – make some tweaks to put yourself over the top, but make sure you do not switch to a deck and then show up unprepared to fight a mirror match with it.
For Vancouver, I think the most common candidates for a switch would be Previous Level Blue first, Ben Lundquist U/G Tron build second, and the Pact-fueled TEPS lists third. If Cheon’s win has finally sold you on Counterspells and Vedalken Shackles, remember that you will not be the only person in the room with Ancestral Recalls. If the fact that both players wielding Ben’s list made it to the semifinals convinces you to pick it up, don’t think that you will be the only one with that list at the next tournament.
I hope this has been helpful, and wish everyone good luck at their PTQs. It’s a brave new Extended out there, and I’m excited to see what Vancouver does to it.
See you next week!
Richard Feldman
Team :S
[email protected]