There’s just three more days left of Financial Reviews: today, tomorrow, and Friday. Almost every remaining rare and mythic were spoiled today, along with a new powerful uncommon. Let’s discuss the new cards spoiled since yesterday!
How I Review
Starting Price: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card, by the time this article was written (usually by midnight on the day of publication).
Future Price – Low: The lowest price I believe this card will hit while it is Standard legal, post-release.
Future Price – High: The highest price I believe this card will hit while it is Standard legal, post-release.
Rarity: Mythic
Starting Price: $10
Current Price: $15
Future Price – Low: $8
Future Price – High: $20
Thoughts: Six mana is a lot to pay for a planeswalker. At that mana cost (and up), a planeswalker needs to be able to seize control of the game by itself. I don’t think Chandra is quite there – all three abilities are very strong, and all three are immediately usable, but none of the three will turn around a game against midrange or control. The –X ability won’t clear out Siege Rhino (or most Eldrazi) and the +1 ability doesn’t give you blockers. The discard/draw ability is also very strong, but chances are that you aren’t going to have mana to use those spells until the next turn, having just cast Chandra.
In short: I think Chandra will see play as a one-of in a bunch of decks, but won’t be prevalent as a four-of like Gideon has been for the past few months. I expect a spike up to $20 leading up to release, but I also think that Chandra will drop down to a more modest $8-$10 before long.
Drana’s Chosen
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $0.50
Current Price: $0.50
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $0.50
Thoughts: I actually haven’t been able to say this much in this set – but bulk rare! This set has very few completely-bulk rares. Also, Allies as a tribe don’t look like they’re going to be a thing for Constructed play.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $0.50
Thoughts: In a set with so many good rares, there’s got to be some cards that might have ordinarily held some premium value, but end up not being playable. Fall of the Titans is one such card – even with the surge cost, it’s going to be difficult to get this to work earlygame (to stop aggro threats) or lategame (to stop multiple Eldrazi).
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $0.50
Current Price: $0.50
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $0.50
Thoughts: One of the most interesting cards printed in a while. Interesting does not equal good, and this is a bulk rare alternate win condition card, just like Battle of Wits and its ilk.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $2
Current Price: $2
Future Price – Low: $1
Future Price – High: $1
Thoughts: The worst of the four Oaths. Doesn’t hit players (first ability), and rarely matters/triggers with two damage on the second ability. May not end up in completely bulk ($0.50) land due to name and theme with planeswalker decks, but it’s not going to see a lot of tournament play.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $1
Thoughts: We see cards like this every set – Countermagic that is just off being playable in Standard. This’ll usually be four mana, which makes it too highly-costed to be playable. If super-heavy control becomes a metagame choice, this’ll be a trump card off the sideboard (at least until someone over-trumps it with Sphinx of the Last Word). Should end up at bulk pricing.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $4
Future Price – Low: $2
Future Price – High: $6
Thoughts: Reminds me of where Scuttling Doom Engine started. This is a better card – it has haste (a huge difference), can be splashed in virtually any deck that cares to run it, and works great with the established B/x Eldrazi deck in Modern. Add in that the opponent is going to lose two-to-one card advantage taking Reality Smasher out more often than not, and we have a staple that’ll see a lot of Standard play, and a decent amount of Modern play.
Rarity: Uncommon
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $2
Future Price – Low: $2
Future Price – High: $3
Thoughts: This is likely the best prowess creature since Monastery Swiftspear. Haste and flying are both key abilities to have on a prowess creature. 1/3 flyer for two mana is already on the curve as a flyer, so we’re basically looking at a very playable card.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $3
Future Price – Low: $2
Future Price – High: $4
Thoughts: Probably will shoot up a dollar after release, but I don’t think this’ll be a card that holds value. I mean I get it – people are stoked that this is better than Elvish Warrior, but when was the last time you wanted to play Elvish Warrior in a Constructed format? Vigilance won’t matter much while this is a 2/3. By the time you get to six lands, you’re probably better off having had Dragonmaster Outcast. If Allies or Elves were a thing in Standard, I’d be more bullish on Sylvan Advocate, but I think that all of the text on it won’t matter a ton in actual Constructed play.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $4
Current Price: $4
Future Price – Low: $3
Future Price – High: $6
Thoughts: Let me just say this now – this set pushed the hell out of Eldrazi as a tribe. This is another amazing creature that will be a staple in Standard and will be immediately added to the Modern Eldrazi deck. This card has many of the best elements of Vendilion Clique, and it isn’t legendary. While it loses flash (against Clique), it gains the ability to be run in virtually any deck. In addition – and I’ll state this again – you can machine gun out any important cards from your opponent’s hand using this plus Eldrazi Displacer (including during your opponent’s draw step). I’m not entirely unconvinced that this particular card/effect isn’t one that will be mandatory to play in Urzatron decks in Modern, in addition to Eldrazi decks.
Pack Value
There are 42 Rares and 12 Mythics in this set. Expeditions add $0.80 per-pack value, so we start at $0.80 and add the following:
2R + 1M (Each Rare is printed twice against each Mythic) / 96 (84 Rares/12 Mythics) * 36 (36 packs/box)
Mythics of Note ($4+)
Chandra, Flamecaller: $15 (NEW)
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet: $8 (+$2 since last update)
Kozilek’s Return: $15 (+$5 since last update)
Kozilek, the Great Distortion: $15
Mirrorpool: $6 (+$1 since last update)
Total: $94
Rares of Note ($2+)
Hissing Quagmire: $4
Needle Spires: $3
Oath of Chandra: $2 (NEW)
Oath of Gideon: $2
Oath of Jace; $2
Oath of Nissa: $5 (+$1 since last Update)
Reality Smasher: $4 (NEW)
Sylvan Advocate: $3 (NEW)
Thought-Knot Seer: $4 (NEW)
Total: $53
2R ($106) + 1M ($94) = $200 / 96 = $2.08 value per pack.
Add in $0.80 for Expeditions = $2.88 per Pack, or $103.68 per box.
I think it’s also time to add in some other factors, such as:
Full-Art Basic Lands (36 per box): $9 per box @ $0.25 each (being conservative on value on these). Wastes (20 per box) = $5 per box @ $0.25 each (though I think this’ll be closer to $0.50 each, but I’m being conservative here).
This adds another $14 per box, to bring us to $117.68.
There are also three uncommons that have premium value – Reflector Mage ($1.50), Spatial Contortion ($1), and Stormchaser Mage ($2). Assuming 60 Uncommons, we’re looking at 108 UC per box, which is 1.8 copies of each Uncommon on average per box. $4.50 * $1.8 = $8.10, bringing our box value to $125.78.
This is before we factor in foil cards, or the remaining Rares/Mythics (6 Rares and 1 Mythic left to go).
While I don’t think that this value will sustain in the long term, I do believe that this is a realistic value for boxes for at least a few weeks (3-4) after release, as the supply opened takes time to catch up to demand. There are quite a few cards that I expect will drop in value a month out (and I’ve stated as such), but I also think that by virtue of there being so many playable colorless Eldrazi cards, that the good rares in this set will actually maintain value due to being in such high demand, since they can be played across decks in Standard. It doesn’t hurt that the Eldrazi Modern deck looks like the real deal and will buoy these prices further.