It’s week two of the Financial Value of Magic 2015, and I can’t help but repeat myself – BOY does this set look good! Who would have thought that the most anticipated set since Return to Ravnica would be a Core set? In today’s article, we’ll take a look at the sixth Planeswalker in the set (Garruk) along with a few other rares spoiled over the weekend!
How I review:
Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.
Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe the card will be at by the time the next set (Khans of Tarkir) comes out.
Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now, when M16 is released.
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Starting Price: $2.50 Current Price: $2.50 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
The closest comp I could find to Chief Engineer is Grand Architect. Grand Architect started at $4, jumped as high as $5, and then dropped to the $2-$2.50 range, even when it was seeing fringe play to power out Wurmcoil Engine. Chief Engineer is much the same type of card. I’d say objectively it’s slightly less powerful than Chief Engineer (adds only one effective mana per creature, rather than two), but never underestimate the power of being both splashable (1U versus 1UU), cheaper (two versus three), and more useful in a multi-colored deck (all artifacts gain convoke, versus only being able to use blue creatures to add two mana to your mana pool).
Long story short, the price of Grand Architect was tanked because it was mass-printed in an event deck. I see Chief Engineer hitting the same value as Grand Architect ($2) for the long-term in Standard.
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Starting Price: $6 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $10 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
So before the reprint, Chord of Calling was up to $40. This was part a function of demand (Birthing Pod decks in Modern, Commander favorite) and part of this was a function of supply (Ravnica was heavily printed for its time, but is short-printed given modern-day demand on Magic cards). I started Chord of Calling at $6, and it was bought out in seconds. I raised the price to $10, and it keeps selling through. I think within a month, supply and demand will meet and Chord of Calling will stabilize at $6-$8. For now, Chord could get as high as $15, but I think that $10 is the reasonable ceiling before MTGO sets hit redemption.
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Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $25 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $15 |
Let’s get this out of the way – seven mana is a lot to pay for a Planeswalker. Garruk is only the second Planeswalker to just straight-up have four abilities, but I think we can all agree that between the mana cost and the abilities on Garruk, we aren’t looking at Jace, The Mind Sculptor version 2.0 here. Garruk is incredibly versatile (kill any creature or planeswalker, or put a legitimate threat on the board), but again – seven mana. That’s a lot to pay for a card that doesn’t put a one- or two-turn clock on the board. Garruk will see play in ramp decks and will be a huge favorite in Commander, but I can’t see his value going anywhere but down from where it is right now.
On the other hand, Garruk, Apex Predator has outsold the other three new planeswalkers in this set so far, and he’s only been spoiled for half a day at the time of writing – so the demand has to count for something, right?
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $1.25 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
The immediate comparison here is to Compulsion, but Compulsion allowed you to discard any card – or sacrifice Compulsion itself – to filter cards. On the flip side, I could see Necromancer’s Stockpile giving a huge amount of reach to Modern zombie decks, especially ramping up the power of Gravecrawler in that format. I’d keep an eye on the Stockpile, because it might be a sleeper hit in this set.
Changes since Friday:
Hushwing Gyff: From $2.50 to $4
Perilous Vault: From $8 to $10
Phyrexian Revoker: From $3 to $2
Soul of Shandalar: From $8 to $6
PACK VALUE
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M) / 80
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other players. So I’m omitting the value of any Rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
31 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Avacyn, Guardian Angel: $3
Battlefield Forge: $3
Caves of Koilos: $3
Chasm Skulker: $2
Chief Engineer: $2.50
Chord of Calling: $10
Genesis Hydra: $2.50
Hushwing Gryff: $4
Llanowar Wastes: $4
Ob Nixilis, Unshackled: $4
Phyrexian Revoker: $2
Preeminent Captain: $3
Return to the Ranks: $2
Shivan Reef: $6
Sliver Hive: $4
Spirit Bonds: $2
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth: $12
Waste Not: $10
Yavimaya Coast: $4
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard: $2
Total Rare Value: $85
Thirteen out of the Fifteen Mythic Rares have been spoiled
Ajani Steadfast: $20
Chandra, Pyromaster: $8
Garruk, Apex Predator: $25
Liliana Vess: $8
Nissa, Worldwaker: $25
Perilous Vault: $10
Soul of Innistrad; $5
Soul of New Phyrexia: $15
Soul of Shandalar: $6
Soul of Theros: $10
Soul of Zendikar: $5
Total Mythic Value: $137
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($85) + 1M ($137)) = $307
$307/121 = $2.54 value per pack, or $91.44 per box.
There are still two Mythics left to spoil (likely Sliver King and Chain Veil, based on hints from Mark Rosewater) and a whole slew of Rares and Uncommons. I’ll see you tomorrow when we get closer to having a full picture of the value of Magic 2015!
Previous Daily Financial Value Of Magic 2015 Articles
6/24 – Sliver Hive; Soul of Innistrad
6/26 – Avacyn, Guardian Angel; Crucible of Fire; Perilous Vault; Phyrexian Revoker