Welcome to the second and final week of my Daily Financial Value of Fate Reforged series! The majority of the set has been spoiled at this point, and the cards spoiled today were pretty impressive by-and-large. Let’s go straight into discussion!
How I Review
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Fate Reforged.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set comes out. (Dragons of Tarkir).
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now, when the Winter 2016 expansion is released!
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Three observations about Arcbond: 1) It’s too situational to be good in Standard, but will likely be very good in Commander and casual formats. 2) It’s likely a complete wrecking ball in Limited. 3) My autocorrect keeps wanting to change the name of this card to “Arcbound.” Thank you, Magic lexicon!
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $0.75 Current Price: $0.75 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Four mana for a 4/4 is par for the course, and the abilities on Daghatar are aimed more at Limited play than Constructed play. With the amount of Fate Reforged that is going to be opened to get at the mythic rares, this card is going to stay bulk for a long while due to oversupply.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Is the black Warrior deck one that might emerge as a contender in Standard? There’s a real push for it. Mardu Strike Leader is decent as a 3/2 for three (though not great – just decent for black), and the ability is strong. I just don’t think it’s good enough though and will likely fall quickly into bulk pricing.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
While casual players hate self-mill, Tasigur is going to be a Constructed powerhouse, especially since Standard is so grindy right now.
Tasigur probably has the best raw stats-to-delve ratio of any creature that is Standard-Legal (beating out Hooting Mandrills and Soulflayer with a significant +1 toughness). His regrowth ability works really, really well with delve (get rid of the cards you don’t want to draw back). I don’t think it’s unrealistic to play Tasigur on turn 3 in Standard and then start drawing extra cards the very next turn if need be. In the lategame, you’re going to start drawing two or more cards a turn.
I see Taisgur as being a staple creature in midrange and control decks in Standard. It’s really, really good, and it’ll be hurt in price because casual players won’t want a card that mills themselves for two.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1.50 Future Price (Long Term): $1.50 |
The first truly bulk mythic of the set.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
The obvious and immediate comparison for Warden of the First Tree is Figure of Destiny. Both start as a 1/1 for one. Warden of the First Tree can only be
played with green mana; Figure of Destiny could be played with red or white. For the decks that want to play the cards, this is negligible, but it halves
the colors that can play it. Advantage (slight): Figure of Destiny.
Creature Type: Human > Kithkin. Human actually matters from time-to-time in Modern. Kithkin really doesn’t anymore. Advantage (very slight): Warden of
the First Tree
First Activation: R/W into a 2/2 against 1(W/B) for a 3/3. Both curve properly from turn 1 to turn 2, so I view this one as a wash.
Second Activation: (R/W)(R/W)(R/W) for a 4/4 against 2(B/W)(B/W) for trample and lifelink. Figure of Destiny has a huge advantage here. Going to a 4/4 is
huge, and costing three instead of four is huge. The only advantage for Warden of the First Tree here is that the requirement to grow it is slightly less
color-intensive. Advantage (large): Figure of Destiny
Third Activation: 6x (R/W) for Figure of Destiny for an 8/8 first strike flyer. 3 + 3x (B/W) for an 8/8 lifelink trampler. Advantage: Warden of the First
Tree.
I’d consider this one a pretty major advantage but not enough to make up the gap on the first ability. It’s a lot easier to slot non-mana producing lands
in your deck (or to fix colors) when you only have three mana-specific colors instead of six mana-specific colors. And while flying is more of an evasive
ability than trample, both are fine on an 8/8 body. I’d rather have an 8/8 lifelinker than an 8/8 first striker in this case. One can be chump blocked
(Figure) and one cannot (Warden).
How does Warden of the First Tree stack up against Figure of Destiny? Equal in the earlygame, worse in the midgame, better in the lategame. In the end,
Figure of Destiny hit a high of $25-$30 when it was Standard-legal, and that’s with it being massively printed as the release foil card for Eventide.
Figure of Destiny has dropped a lot in value since it’s been reprinted in a Duel Deck, Modern Masters, and in Premium Deck Series: Fire and Lightning. I
think Warden will start approaching Standard-legal Figure values, since it’s very, very playable, and it’s a mythic.
Changes Since Last Article
Flamewake Phoenix:
From $2 to $5 – People are picking up that this card is really good for Standard, and possibly even better for Modern (thank you Faithless Looting!).
Monastery Mentor
: from $25 to $30 – Going to sell out of this very soon.
Monastery Siege
: From $1.50 to $2 – Selling very well at $1.50, enough to bump slightly to $2
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/80.
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
27 out of the 35 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Crux of Fate: $2
Frontier Siege: $2
Mardu Strike Leader – $2
Monastery Siege: $2
Soulflayer: $3
Total Rare Value: $18
9 out of the 10 Mythic Rares in Fate Reforged have been spoiled!
Brutal Hordechief: $10
Monastery Mentor: $30
Warden of the First Tree – $10
Total Mythic Value: $123
In addition, the five Khans fetchlands are going to be featured in Booster Packs in the land slot. See the the previous articles for the math on this but:
If the Khans Fetchlands appear 2x per Land sheet, they add $45 in value to each Fate Reforged box.
If the Khans Fetchlands appear 1x per Land sheet, they add $22.50 in value to each Fate Reforged box.
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($36) + 1M ($123) = $159
$159/80 = $1.99 value per pack, or $71.64 per box without Fetchlands.
With Fetchlands appearing at 10 per 121 packs opened, this is a $116.64 value per box.
With Fetchlands appearing at 5 per 121 packs opened, this is a $94.14 value per box.