It’s time for the second installment of my Financial Value of Fate Reforged series! This is my quarterly set of articles, where I give my thoughts/feelings/guesses of the values of new cards as they are spoiled. Since yesterday, there has been another dozen or so cards spoiled that I need to discuss. Let’s dive right in!
How I Review
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Fate Reforged.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set comes out. (Dragons of Tarkir).
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now, when the Winter 2016 expansion is released!
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $15 Future Price (Medium Term): $12 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
My immediate comparison here is with Hellrider. Hellrider hit $15 (as a rare) from a set that didn’t have a lot of money cards (Dark Ascension). Brutal Hordechief exchanged haste for a true drain effect, plus the ability to completely wreck your opponent’s ability to mount a defense. Should be a serious player in Standard.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
I have an unnatural liking that I took to Martial Law. This is even better than Martial Law (Dragons side) because you can use it the turn it enters the battlefield (you don’t have to wait until your next turn to neutralize a creature). I think this one has a chance in Standard, because it gives control a true way to neutralize a creature each turn (including hasty creatures!) for free.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Interesting for casual play, but too slow/narrow for serious Constructed play. If you want ramp, play green/artifacts.
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Dromoka the Eternal |
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1.50 Current Price: $1.50 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Bulk rare. Right now getting some love, but a 5/5 for five with a marginal combat-based ability isn’t going to be winning any huge competitions any time soon. Works well in Commander Doubling Season-style decks at least.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $5 Future Price (Medium Term): $5 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
This set is seriously lacking in money rares (they are all in mythics – more on this later), so it’ll be hard for a rare to get much higher than bulk value. Flamewake Phoenix is extremely comparable to Chandra’s Phoenix, which hit the $5-$6 mark despite being printed three times (M12, M14 and Buy-a-Box promo). I think the ability/trigger on Flamewake Phoenix is going to hit very often, making this card a staple of red decks in Standard (and possibly even good enough to see Modern play, due to Faithless Looting). Right now, this is my new choice for the card in this set that is mostly likely to appreciate in value long-term.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1.50 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
This is going to be a Commander staple for a long, long time. In addition, both modes are good enough to see Standard play (self-Howling Mine variant, or self-Frost Titan variant). Currently being undervalued, but not flashy/broad enough to have a huge upside.
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
It’s no secret that in the broad scope of Magic’s history, creatures have been underpowered and spells overpowered. Wizards has been working on getting this balance more in line for years now, so we’re at the point where I can look at a creature like Shaman of the Great Hunt and say “Okay, this is the new normal for ‘good’ but not ‘amazing.’
The problem with Shaman of the Great Hunt is that all three of the abilities don’t really work well together. As a two-toughness creature, Shaman of the Great Hunt is not often going to live long enough to use the ferocious card-drawing ability. At four mana, you’re not going to want to play a 4/2 creature just to hold it back and draw cards/make your other creatures very situationally larger. Last of all, the +1/+1 ability caused by hitting opponents in combat has been traditionally a very weak ability unless it comes down super-earlygame (see Slith Firewalker). Because of this, I just think Brutal Hordechief is the better card for a four-drop aggressive deck. Yes, they are different colors – but with both being only a single colored mana to cast to begin with, Brutal Hordechief is the better card that an aggro deck wants.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.75 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.75 |
Shu Yun can theoretically get huge on its own – but if you’re playing a Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck, there’s only so many three-drop spells you can have in the deck, and Monastery Mentor is likely the better card. If you’re just playing a non-combo deck, Shu Yun is a really, really odd fit. Yes, you can bolt something and then double strike for eight on turn 4, but more likely Shu Yun will just die the turn it enters the battlefield as a two-toughness creature.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Worse at killing creatures than Doomwake Giant (which comes down a turn earlier), but much better than Doomwake Giant as a win condition. Should see some play, but six is a lot to pay for what is effectively a -1/-1 effect.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
This is the type of card that control players would love to be able to have one-of in their deck so they can draw it on turn 6 and blow out the opponent. Unsummon + Clone seems really strong, but you just can’t have too many of these in your deck because of the off-chance that you draw it in your opening hand. Playable, but not a four-of.
Changes to the Previous Article
This set is starting to remind me a lot of Rise of the Eldrazi. When Rise first hit, there were very, very few rares that held any significant
value, but the mythics were just all really appealing cards (either for the competitive or casual player). This set is looking to be the one that is most
mythic-heavy in value. What’s this mean for card value? Singles value on mythics should stay stable (since people will likely hunt down the specific
mythics they need), but the Rares in this set should have a depressed value since people will be opening packs at a two-to-one ratio against rares in order
to get the high-value mythics.
Monastery Mentor
: from $20 to $25 – And I see this hitting towards $30 by Monday, given current E-bay and website sales trends.
Soulfire Grand Master:
From $20 to $25 – see Monastery Mentor. These are likely the two power cards in the set, and both are playable in older formats as well, so they should
hold value.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
: From $25 to $30 – I don’t see Ugin holding value as highly as the two white mythics, but people who want to use Ugin right out of the gates are willing
to pay a premium to get ahold of him “right now.”
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/80.
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
24 out of the 35 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Crux of Fate: $2
Frontier Siege: $2
Soulflayer: $3
Total Rare Value: $9
7 out of the 10 Mythic Rares in Fate Reforged have been spoiled!
Brutal Hordechief: $10
Monastery Mentor: $25
Total Mythic Value: $107
In addition, the five Khans fetchlands are going to be featured in Booster Packs in the land slot. The land slot consists of:
10 Alternate Art Lifegain Taplands from Khans
5 Khans Fetchlands
My guess that if we’re looking at a 121 card sheet:
10 each Lifegain Tapland (50 Total)
2 each Khans Fetchland (10 total)
And then one of the taplands will get an eleventh printing, making it slightly more common than the other lands (which is what sometimes happens with 20
lands on a 121 count land sheet). It’s entirely possible there are only one of each Khans fetchland per print sheet, so let’s crunch that math as well.
The average value of a Khans fetchland is approximately $15. If there are ten Khans fetchlands per sheet, they will appear once every 12.1 booster packs.
This would be close enough to call it an average of three per booster box, or $45 in value added to each Booster Box. If there are five Khans fetchlands
per print sheet, they will appear once every 24.2 packs – or you’ll get 1.5 per box. This would add $22.50 in value to a booster box.
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($18) + 1M ($107) = $125
$125/80 = $1.56 value per pack, or $56.16 per box without fetchlands.
With fetchlands appearing at 10 per 121 packs opened, this is a $101.16 value per box.
With fetchlands appearing at 5 per 121 packs opened, this is a $78.66 value per box.
About two-thirds of the set is now spoiled, so the remaining cards should all be revealed by next Friday at the latest!
A special thank-you to Wizards of the Coast Content Manager Blake Rasmussen for chiming in on yesterday’s article to clarify that English booster packs of
Fate Reforged will not contain basic lands in the land slot!
I look forward to your comments, and can’t wait until Monday to discuss the next batch of cards!