We have a few new cards to discuss today as we round the home stretch towards the end of preview season! Here are the new cards spoiled since yesterday’s article, and some price changes that occurred in the past 24 hours.
How I Review:
Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragons of Tarkir.
Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Magic Origins aka Magic 2016) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (Remember: new block
structure! Big set / Small set + Big set / Small set is the new schedule.)
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
The first Doran-type effect since Lorwyn. The differences between this and Doran:
1) Assault Formation doesn’t affect your opponent’s creatures.
2) Assault Formation costs two, Doran costs three.
3) Doran is (effectively) a 5/5 creature. Assault Formation is an enchantment.
4) Assault Formation has a (minor) pump effect.
5) Assault Formation allows your defender creatures to attack.
#5 is the only major upside that Assault Formation has over Doran – but do you want to build a Wall deck? Maybe! There are actually some pretty insane
walls in Modern that are already fringe playable, and the cost on Assault Formation is cheap enough that you could reliably be attacking with your walls on
turn 3. For instance:
That’s just the tip of the iceberg!
Note that the shroud on Wall of Denial keeps it from going into this discussion.
This isn’t even counting things that generally wouldn’t be playable at all without Assault Formation (such as Guardians of Meletis, Murmuring Phantasm, or
Doorkeeper), so I feel confident in saying that Assault Formation bears at least looking at!
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Absolutely tournament playable. Even if it never gets +1/+1, it’s still a 3/2 creature with reach and trample for two mana. It is an on-curve aggro creature with an upside to boot!
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Rarity: Mythic Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
Accidentally priced this as a bulk rare thinking it was a rare card (previous Wrath effects like this are usually rare). Now it’s priced like a bulk mythic. Should have casual appeal, but the mana cost is too expensive for tournament play.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $6 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $4 |
See also: Sliver Hive. For all intents and purposes, this is Sliver Hive for Dragons, and so I see the price trajectory going in the exact same direction that Sliver Hive did. Sliver Hive had fewer copies printed (Dragons is going to see a higher print run than M15), but Haven of the Spirit Dragon will see more tournament play, so I see the demand/supply on these two balancing out.
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Rarity: Rare Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
I look at Pyreheart Wolf as the comparison for Ire Shaman. Pyreheart Wolf had both undying, and could give your other creatures the “must be blocked by two or more creatures” clause. Ire Shaman can come down a turn earlier (1R), has a higher base power (2), and can become a cantrip 3/2 at four mana. Very playable in Standard, both pre-and-post Megamorph.
Changes Since Last Article
Deathmist Raptor: From $5 to $6 – Based on demand.
Mirror Mockery: From $1 to $1.50 – Based on sales volume.
Pack Value
To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M)/121
That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other
players. So I’m omitting the value of any Rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
34 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
Arashin Foremost: $2
Atarka’s Command: $5
Den Protector: $2
Haven of the Spirit Dragon: $4
Ire Shaman: $2
Ojutai’s Command: $6
Stratus Dancer: $2
Thunderbreak Regent : $5
Total Rare Value: $56
14 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled! Here are the ones $4 and up!
Deathmist Raptor: $6
Dragon Whisperer: $6
Dragonlord Atarka: $10
Narset Transcendent: $50
Ojutai Exemplars: $10
Sarkhan Unbroken: $30
Total Mythic Value: $153
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($112) + 1M ($154) = $266
$266/121 = $2.20 value per pack, or $79.20 per box.
I’ll talk more about this on Friday, but there are a lot of good uncommons in this set – enough to affect the value of the box price. This
set is also going to be wildly popular for Commander play, leading to a higher-than-average price on foil cards as a whole.