Hello everyone, and welcome back to my daily series of Financial Value articles about the newest set. This time around, we’re going to discuss the third set of the immensely popular Return to Ravnica block—Dragon’s Maze! There have been a couple of cards previewed previous to today, so we’ll catch up on everything that has been revealed so far.
We’re going to try formatting this slightly differently this time! There is a wide variance in price between when a card is spoiled, when a card is first released, and the price by the time the next set comes out. Accordingly, I want to format this article to be the most useful in the immediate future, and in the later future.
Starting Price: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card, by the time this article goes live
Future Price—Short Term: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Dragon’s Maze
Future Price—Medium Term: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (M14) comes out.
Future Price—Long Term: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now, when the next spring set is released (Journey Into Nyx).
Adding these other price quantifiers should give you a better idea of where I believe cards will be over the lifetime of the card in Standard. With that said—let’s start from the top!
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Beck // Call |
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Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $6 |
I’ve brought this up previously when we last saw split cards—sometimes the “good” side of the card is hurt by the side that probably isn’t going to see play. I say this because the “Call” half of Beck // Call might as well not exist. There’s one deck that is (currently) going to want this card—Combo Elves. Combo Elves in Modern, Combo Elves in Legacy, and potentially Combo Elves in Standard.
There’s a precedent for Beck // Call, and that card is Glimpse of Nature. Glimpse of Nature is good enough to be banned in Modern. Glimpse costs one less mana but has a big drawback—it only triggers on creatures cast and not ones that enter play. This opens up the deck for some Elves that were previous played in this deck but had fallen out of favor—most notable among these is Wirewood Hivemaster.
I put Beck // Call as a longer-term winner (but a short-term loser) mainly because I think this deck will be most potent in Modern (where it will be resurrected by Beck // Call), but Modern season won’t be back around in full force (even with Modern Masters coming out) until December of next year. Beck // Call foils will be in high-demand by Legacy players (so scoop those up!), but I think this card will drop in the short term before it goes back up again rounding into next year’s Modern PTQ season.
Also note: Cards that I believe will be the big winners of the printing of Beck // Call are Cloudstone Curio, Wirewood Hivemaster, Wirewood Symbiote, and Birchlore Rangers.
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Maze’s End |
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Starting Price: $6 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2.50 |
This is a great card for Commander (Thawing Glaciers anyone?), and I believe it will also find a place in Standard in control-style decks as a card advantage engine. The problems with Maze’s End are 1) There are a bazillion of them that are going to be given out like candy as the Dragon’s Maze Prerelease promo, and 2) It’s a slow card-advantage card. We’ve already dropped the price twice on this card (from $6 to $5 and then to $4), and sales have still been sluggish, so I think it’ll end up as a bulk mythic for a while after release.
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Melek, Izzet Paragon |
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1.50 |
Great Commander, less spectacular as the wrong half of Future Sight (the one that doesn’t let you play lands off of the top of your deck so you can get to business spells). I believe the foil version of Melek will be disproportionally high in price compared to the non-foil version, but I believe this will be in, or slightly above, the bulk rare range before long after release.
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Ral Zarek |
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Starting Price: $30 Current Price: $30 Future Price (Short Term): $40 Future Price (Medium Term): $25 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
Let’s ignore the “all planeswalkers are hyped beyond belief!” starting price point for planeswalkers in general. After many, many years of planeswalkers blindly starting in the $30-$50 range as a preorder item, I finally feel comfortable pricing them up according to the following criterion, in order of importance:
1. Will they be part of a Tier 1 or Tier 2 LEGACY archetype?
2. Will they be part of a Tier 1 Standard archetype?
3. Will they be part of the Tier 1 Modern archetype?
It’s as simple as that. The planeswalkers that have held long-term value are the ones which see Legacy play. Jace, the Mind Sculptor is at $120 now and is banned in Modern. Liliana of the Veil is up to $60, and the foil version is clocking in at a hefty $200. Elspeth, Knight-Errant will still set you back $30 because it gets love in Legacy sideboards frequently enough.
Meanwhile, Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded is sitting in the $1-$2 bins waiting for someone to send him some love!
Let’s take a look at Ral Zarek and see which criterion it will meet:
1. Will it be part of a Tier 1 or Tier 2 Legacy deck? Likely not. It’s four mana; the plus ability does not affect the game state enough in Legacy (compared to Elspeth, Liliana, and Jace TMS); and the -2 ability is outclassed by Ajani Vengeant in most cases.
2. Will it be part of a Tier 1 Standard archetype? Probably. The first ability allows you to let your creatures break through for the attack or defend after combat. It also gives mana acceleration in a color combination that normally does not get reusable mana acceleration (untap lands, yo!). The second ability gets creatures off the board or hits the player in the head for a significant two whacks. I’m leaning towards Ral seeing a bunch of Standard play, which would land him in the same range as cards like Garruk, Primal Hunter or Sorin, Lord of Innistrad.
3. Will Ral Zarek be part of a Tier 1 Modern archetype? Possibly, but I don’t feel as strongly about Ral Zarek in Modern as I do in Standard.
Because I think Ral will be successful in Standard, be marginal in Modern, and be a non-factor in Legacy, I compare him in long-term price to Sorin, Lord of Innistrad and Garruk, Primal Hunter—solid $20 up until the point where they are getting ready to rotate (both Garruk and Sorin have started to slide—Garruk because M14 is close at hand and Sorin because he was just reprinted in a Duel Deck).
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Render Silent |
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Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $3 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Counterflux is down to $0.75. Counterflux started its life as a $3 preorder card. I don’t see why Render Silent (especially doing double duty as the Buy-a-Box promo) would have a different trajectory from Counterflux. I actually dropped our preorder price from $4 to $3 after I did research on our Counterflux price trajectory.
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Ruric Thar, the Unbowed |
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Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $5 Future Price (Short Term): $4 Future Price (Medium Term): $3 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Revealed as one of the Intro Pack rares. Remember a cycle of really awesome legendary creatures that got people stoked when they were introduced but also were the featured cards in their respective Intro Packs? Let’s have a looksee!
M13 legendary creatures that were the featured cards for their Intro Pack:
Starting Price: $2
Short-Term Price: $3.50
Current Price: $2.50
Starting Price: $2
Short-Term Price: $1
Current Price: $1.50
Starting Price: $2.50
Short-Term Price: $1.50
Current Price: $2
Starting Price: $4
Short-Term Price: $6
Current Price: $1.50
Yeva, Nature’s Herald
Starting Price: $7
Short-Term Price: $4
Current Price: $1
The lesson here? Unless Ruric Thar sets Standard on fire (I don’t believe he will), his target price range is going to be between $1.50 and $2.50. My own bets are at the $2 range; this is also why I’m being very conservative in pricing Melek, Izzet Paragon (though we don’t know if Melek is in an Intro Pack yet).
See you all tomorrow for the first update to the Financial Value of Dragon’s Maze!
- Ben Bleiweiss
- General Manager, StarCityGames.com