And here’s the last Daily Financial Value of Born of the Gods article. Thank you for tuning in the past two weeks! I’m going to break this review into four parts.

Part 1: Reviewing the last two rares

Part 2: General Thoughts about Born of the Gods / Box Value

Part 3: Foils to watch

Part 4: Last Thoughts about Born of the Gods

Part One: The Last Two Rares

Starting Price: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card, by the time this article goes live.
Future Price – Short Term: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Born of the Gods.
Future Price – Medium Term: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Journey into Nyx) comes out.
Future Price – Long Term: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the next winter set is released (name unknown still).

Early playtest results from Fated Retribution are fairly positive. Think of Fated Retribution as a Rout that you always have to pay the two extra mana on, but which kills Planeswalkers to boot. There’s a place for this card in Standard (though likely not more than as a one- o -two-of), and it’s got the chops to make it in casual play.

Fated Retribution

Starting Price: $1.50

Current Price: $2

Future Price (Short Term): $2

Future Price (Medium Term): $1.50

Future Price (Long Term): $2

Plea for Guidance

Starting Price: $1

Current Price: $1

Future Price (Short Term): $0.50

Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50

Future Price (Long Term): $0.50

Double isn’t always better. Case in point: Plea for Guidance is essentially a double Idyllic Tutor. Idyllic Tutor has value due to casual play, and it took a looooong time to get there with much less of a supply out there than Plea for Guidance/BOTG is going to have. This will likely be a bulk card for a long, long time.

Part Two: General Thoughts On The Set And Pack Value

So all of the Rares have been spoiled now, and here’s what the box value looks like (not counting Uncommons, Commons, or foils):

RARES
Astral Cornucopia: $2
Courser of Kruphix: $4
Eidolon of Countless Battles: $3
Hero of Iroas: $2
Pain Seer: $12
Satyr Firedancer: $3
Spirit of the Labyrinth: $8
Temple of Enlightenment: $5
Temple of Malice: $5
Temple of Plenty: $5
Total Rare Value: $49

MYTHICS
Brimaz, King of Oreskos: $30
Ephara: $10
Flame-Wreathed Phoenix: $10
Karametra: $10
Kiora, the Crashing Wave: $25
Mogis, God of Slaughter: $20
Phenax: $10
Xenagos, God of Revels: $25
Total Mythic Value: $140

(2R ($98) + 1M ($140) ) = $238

$238 /80 = $2.98 value per pack, or $107.28 per box.

This is not particularly strong for a set release, especially when you figure that a lot of these cards will depreciate in price after the hype dies down, and after the MTGO redemptions take place.

So what’s it mean when a set is likely going to underperform against the average, as far as demand/values go?

Fewer packs will be opened and fewer sets will be redeemed. This is just common sense – the less popular a set is, or the less powerful it’s perceived to be, the fewer packs of that set are going to be opened.
The singles that are most popular will be disproportionately expensive compared to all the other singles. This happened with Worldwake, Dark Ascension, and Rise of the Eldrazi (three other sets where there were a below-average total number of “good” rares and mythics). This is part of how Jace hit $100, and why the Eldrazi are all spiking heavily (and rose quickly when they were standard legal) – people are going to pay a premium to get the specific card that they want, rather than take a crack at a pack and end up with (on average) a not-in-demand card.
The two marquee rares in the set right now (Pain Seer and Spirit of the Labyrinth) are being overhyped. There are rares that I will look at and say “This is a can’t miss smash hit Rare”. Snapcaster Mage was one. Neither Pain Seer nor Spirit of the Labryinth have the chops to be ubiquitous in multiple formats. Combined with my second point, this means that people will be opening packs for the Mythics and flooding the market with Rares, which leads me to:
The Mythics are the cards in this set that are going to hold value. One of the great things about Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash was that there were a ton of high-demand and value Rare cards, which made pack opening a win-win proposition – even if you didn’t get a card that you specifically wanted, chances are on average it would be a $2-$4 card that you could trade for another $2-$4 card you wanted. (Or, a Shockland for a Shockland, pretty much even-up). Since I envision there will be so few Rares worth opening in this set, it’s the Mythics that are going to drive value. Say hello to $50 Baneslayer Angel territory for whichever Mythic(s) in this set become tier-one tournament cards.

Part Three: Foils To Watch

FOIL COMMONS (Starting Price > $0.50)

Nullify: $0.75 – Remove Soul plus an occasional pseudo-Annul (though hitting only Auras isn’t that great).

Revoke Existence – $1 – based on Scars of Mirrodin Foil Value.

Satyr Wayfinder: $0.75 – Semi-Mulch on a creature.

FOIL UNCOMMONS (Starting Price > $1)

Bile Blight – $4 – Standard staple.

Drown in Sorrow – $3 – Infest with an upside.

Fanatic of Xenagos – $3 – On the curve for a Red/Green beatdown deck, regardless of tribute.

Kiora’s Follower – $2 – Even if not played in Standard, has a price precedent for casual play in Seeker of Skybreak and Aphetto Alchemist.

Meletis Astronomer – $2 – Undervalued to start. Works great in an Enchantress build.

Peregrination – $3 – Check the price on foil Explosive Vegetation, Skycloud Claim, Kodama’s Reach and Cultivate. Has a prior history of hitting this price tier for this type of effect.

Ragemonger – $2 – It took over a decade for Edgewalker Foil to hit $2. I expect Ragemonger Foil to take a price hit below the $2 mark quickly after release.

Searing Blood – $4 – Will be a staple Red Burn spell in Standard.

Springleaf Drum – $4 – Lorwyn Foil version is $10. 40% of that price to start sounds fair, and this has a price memory upside.

Thassa’s Rebuff – $2 – Should see some play in Mono-U devotion decks.

FOIL RARES (Foil Price > Double the non-Foil Version and higher than $2.99 ($3) OR > $10)

Astral Cornucopia – $5 – Commander appeal.

Courser of Kruphix – $10 – Cross-demand from Standard and Commander players.

Eidolon of Countless Battles – $8 – People are putting this on the “Voice of Resurgence” train.

Fated Retribution – $5 – Should see Standard and Commander play.

Felhide Spiritbinder – $4 – This has been a big spec target, but I don’t think it’ll pan out.

Gild – $4 – People are talking about this as a sideboard card for Black decks in Standard.

Hero of Iroas – $6 – Huge casual appeal for Enchantress players.

Pain Seer – $20 – Overhyped card, would trade these off ASAP.

Satyr Firedancer – $10 – Might be underpriced, as this is a foil that Legacy and Modern players are excited about.

Spirit of the Labyrinth – $25 – Going to be sought after as a four-of by a large number of Legacy players.

FOIL MYTHICS

Brimaz – $60 – The most sought-after card in this set.

Champion of Stray Souls – $6 – Commander interest.

Chromanticore – $6 – Should drop in price to $3-$4 for the foil version.

Ephara, Karametra, Phenax – $20 – In line with what the “bad” Theros Gods started at for the foil versions.

Flame-Wreathed Phoenix – $20 – I think this will drop in value as I don’t think it’s Standard playable.

Kiora, the Crashing Wave – $60 – Foil Planeswalker.

Mogis, God of Slaughter – $40 – Community is viewing this as the Black/Red finisher of choice. I just don’t see it personally, but the demand is there (It’s the Mythic we’ve sold the second most-of behind Brimaz).

Xenagos, God of Revels – $50 – I think this is going to be the breakout card of this set in Standard.

Part Four: Last Thoughts About Born Of The Gods

As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think Born of the Gods is a particularly strong set. There are almost no “staple” commons, the Uncommons are generally not appealing, and the Rares have a higher chaff-to-good-card ratio than we’re used to seeing out of a Magic expansion.

I predicted earlier that people are going to be paying a premium on the few “better” cards in this set rather than cracking singles. This also means that in the short-term, the supply of Rares (which appear twice as frequently when compared to Mythics) will exceed demand in the market. If you’re into buying cards for the long-term, this is actually a very good set. Generally my articles deal with “a year out” from release. Here’s a list of cards that are inexpensive now, I expect to drop to the $1 range over the next 1-6 months, and I think will be $2 or more two and a half years from now (when the set rotates out of Standard, and the 2016 Modern season rolls around):

Astral Cornucopia (Precedent – Chromatic Lantern)

Fate Unraveler (Precedent – Underworld Dreams)

Heroes’ Podium (Precedent – Door of Destinies, Coat of Arms)

Those are the three cards that I think are going to be at their lowest point while they are in Standard, but long-term have a lot of upside in value.

Hope you all enjoyed this article series, and I’ll see you for Journey into Nyx!