Welcome to the last day of my first week of Financial Value of Battle for Zendikar! In today’s article we’ll take a look at the new cards spoiled
since yesterday and then look at the overall trend in values of this set.
Back in the day, Jilt was one of those cards that was just off the cusp of tournament playability. While Jilt was more versatile in its ability to
be cast (1U versus a hard-capped 2UR), Brutal Expulsion can hit planeswalkers (Jilt can only hit creatures), Brutal Expulsion can Remand spells (Jilt can
only target creatures), and Brutal Expulsion can exile permanents. Given the higher curve that many Standard decks hit these days, I feel that Brutal
Expulsion has quite a place in Standard. Against aggressive decks, you get to bounce one creature and kill another. Against control decks, you have a soft
counterspell to force through what you want. A very playable card.
Awakening Zone hit around $4-$5 when it was Standard-legal and dropped down because it’s been reprinted to heck and back. From Beyond is comparable to
Awakening Zone (one more mana for two upside effects – getting a larger token, and being able to sacrifice From Beyond to tutor an Eldrazi), and so even
though it costs one more mana, I think it’s going to be a card that sees play in both Standard and casual tables.
Five mana to get multiple Allies onto the battlefield is decent, but so far it looks like the worthwhile Allies are going to be in the 3-5 mana range,
meaning you’re likely going to get two relevant Allies for five mana. That’s above the curve as far as straight reanimation spells go these days. If
there’s a reason to play Allies, March from the Tomb is going to be an integral part of the deck. I’m still not betting on Allies though.
Yet another gratuitous red Phoenix. The last few iterations of this card have failed, so I think that’ll be the case with Akoum Firebird as well. Starting
it at $4, but I think it’ll quickly drop to the $1.50-$2 bulk range.
Trends This Week
Eldrazi cards – The majority of these are trending downwards so far. Many Eldrazi at the $1-$1.50 range have dropped in value by $0.50 – $1. The exceptions
to this are Fathom Feeder, which started at bulk ($0.49) and has gone up to a solid $1.50, and Smothering Abomination, which started at $1 and went up to
Greenwarden of Murasa – Started at $6, went up to $8.
Zada, Hedron Grinder – The biggest mover upwards this week. Started at $1, up to $4. I still don’t think Zada is a viable Standard card, but a lot of
people are excited about brewing with her.
Yesterday, I estimated the pack value of a basic land and a one-a-case Zendikar Expedition at $1.22. Some people felt that my $0.50 estimation on basic
lands was too high (though I stand by it based on both our presales and Ebay auctions finishing at $0.50-$0.75), but let’s go with $1 to round it down.
There are 121 cards on the rare/mythic print sheet. This is accounted for by 53 rares (each printed twice on the sheet) and 15 mythics (each printed once).
So the formula for figuring out pack value is:
(2R * 1M)/121
Rares That Are $2+:
Bring to Light: $2
Brutal Expulsion: $2
Canopy Vista: $10
Cinder Glade: $10
From Beyond: $2
Lumbering Falls: $5
Prairie Stream: $5
Ruinous Path: $5
Shambling Vent: $5
Smoldering Marsh: $8
Smothering Abomination: $2.50
Sunken Hollow: $10
Mythics That Are $5+:
Gideon, Ally Of Zendikar: $25
Ob Nixilis Reignited: $20
Oblivion Sower: $5
Ulamog, The Ceaseless Hunger: $22.50
Undergrowth Champion: $10
Void Winnower: $5
2R ($145) + 1M ($121.50) = $266.50
121 Rares/Mythics on the sheet: $266.50/121 = $2.20
Added value from Lands/Expeditions: $1 ($3.20)
So right now, the average pack value is $3.20, or a box value of $115.20 as-is. Now a lot of the cards (especially rares) are going to go down a lot in
value as people open packs and the value of a box drops to meet the demand of people opening for mythics and Zendikar Expeditions. However, with that $1
start in pack value, it’s going to be very difficult for the total value of a booster pack to drop below $3 ($108 a box) even with mass depreciation across
the board. That would require that all of the rares and mythics in the set to add up to $242 or less in value after depreciation, and that’s not likely
going to happen.
See you all next week!