With Mono Red decks taking top spots all over the world, including the last StarCityGames.com Open Series event, as well as winning Japanese Nationals, it is poised to take over Standard if people don’t do something about it. New cards from M11 might help stem the bleeding, but Obstinate Baloths out of the sideboard might not even save you, and especially so once the new Red Leyline is legal…
If you haven’t seen this card, that is because you either don’t believe in spoilers, or live under a rock. This Leyline hasn’t been talked about much, but I think that is mostly because people don’t understand exactly what it means for the Red deck, nor do they actually plan on playing a Red deck themselves. If you have never played against Sulfuric Vortex, then you probably can’t grasp just exactly what this newer (albeit worse) version means to a Red mage. Slinging burn spells only to have them effectively countered via a life-gain spell or ability is pretty disheartening, but this card essentially replaces Unstable Footing. It is even free to put into play and has the upside of destroying Kor Firewalker and company.
For these reasons, along with the increasing popularity of Searing Blaze decks, my Eldrazi Monument incarnations from the previous two weeks have been invalidated. Eldrazi Monument decks rely on early mana acceleration to take control of the game, and Red Decks attack from a very tough angle for you to dodge. Cards like Ball Lightning are very tricky to play against, and deciding whether or not to trade your creatures for paltry amounts of damage from cards like Hellspark Elemental is impossible. If you decide to dedicate enough sideboard slots to these kinds of decks, then you will most likely be able to overpower them, but by doing so you are limiting a lot of the sideboard cards that helped in mediocre matchups.
Dragon’s Claw, Kor Firewalker, and Obstinate Baloth are great starts, but they are clunky and occasionally hard to cast. Sure, these cards are good against them, but even when drawn in multiples they can be beaten if you don’t have any pressure or additional removal accompanying them. So, where does that leave us? Some might say that the answer is metagaming to beat a heavy Jund and Mono Red field, while still having some game against a variety of other decks. That would be the life, wouldn’t it? The problem with this theory is that there is no deck in the format that can beat both of them. Either you lose to one, or you lose to both. There is no middle ground without picking up either deck for yourself.
Vengevine decks are a great example of something that is favorable against Jund, yet lacks against Mono Red. While Obstinate Baloth might be the bee’s knees against Jund and Mono Red, you will still have a tough time finding a way to stay alive long enough to cast your stubborn 4/4 against a bevy of hellfire and brimstone. With a flurry of removal, and possibly some Leyline of Punishment shenanigans, you will rarely be able to get your mana producers online fast enough to put up any decent kind of fight. I know for a fact that I would rather face any other deck in Standard than Mono Red when I’m playing GR/x Eldrazi Tokens, because Searing Blaze is actually the stone nuts against me, killing my mana dork and dealing me three damage in the process. If they have a Goblin Guide into Searing Blaze start, there is really nothing you can do if they have anything in their hand to follow it up.
With all of this in mind, I present you with a question: can you beat Hell’s Thunder? Let’s think about that question for a moment, because it is not as simple as you might think. Sure, your deck plays Path to Exile, and you can permanently deal with it if you aren’t tapped out. But what if you are tapped out? Is a one-sided Flame Rift with Unearth your undoing? The only real deck in Standard that can contain the monstrosity that is Mono Red is UW Control. I think that your old-school version of UW with Baneslayer Angels, Gideon Jura, Path to Exile, Wall of Omens, and the rest of the usual suspects is just what you need if you want to be able to beat the Hell’s Thunder decks. If you have a very defensive strategy post-board, there is not a whole lot they can do. Additionally, cards like Celestial Purge and Flashfreeze make for a knockout punch, and especially so when combined with Kor Firewalker. Unfortunately for most decks, it is very unlikely they will be able to play all, or even most, of these in their sideboard. It is actually really difficult to consistently cast a WW creature on the second turn in three-color decks. Shocker. It is also much harder when your opponent is casting Forked Bolt on your first two creatures. Dagger. It is even worse when they can cast Earthquake at almost any conceivable point in the game to completely wreck you. For these reasons, I implore you to move away from Green-based aggressive decks. If you don’t, Searing Blaze will getcha. Hell, it will probably kill you even if you try really hard to beat it. There is a reason that for the last two weeks, everyone and their brother has tried to dodge Mono Red at major tournaments. Mono Red is everyone’s worst matchup when you ignore it.
Throughout the history of Magic, Red decks have always existed in some form or another. From the “no card limit” days of 20 Black Lotus, 20 Wheel of Fortune, 20 Lightning Bolt, all the way to Devastating Red, mages have been putting Mountains into play and setting the world on fire. It’s what they like to do, and you can almost always point out the “noob” or “idiot” who beat you last week with a Turn 1 Lightning Bolt. Those people stick out in your head. However, what could an experienced player playing a Red deck accomplish? Sean McKeown touched on this subject last week, and presented a very detailed argument for the “good player” to start picking up the Mountains in “The Fallacy of the Red Deck.” But, I don’t think the list he presented is what is really giving people problems lately. With that in mind, here is the deck that won Japanese Nationals this past weekend, and I’ll let you compare the two:
Creatures (18)
Lands (25)
Spells (17)
And Sean’s version of Devastating Red:
Creatures (18)
Lands (24)
Spells (18)
Sideboard
I would much rather play against Sean’s version, since it is more susceptible to removal spells. Day of Judgment is also somewhat more problematic, but that can be “solved” with is Devastating Summons and Goblin Bushwhacker combo, catching his opponent with their virtual pants down. However, the other version seems mostly immune to removal outside of Path to Exile, which in turn helps you cast a larger Earthquake. But, that is just my opinion, and do with it what you will. While he does make some good arguments, I can’t help but wonder if his efforts are in vain, or even counterintuitive. From history, we can see that Red Mages tend to do much better when people aren’t really expecting to face off against them more than once or twice in a given tournament. With a tuned list, a Burn player can easily take down an unprepared tournament if he (or she) makes the right call, has a good list, and he plays perfectly. If everyone can see the elephant in the room before he falls on top of you, what is the point of trying to be the elephant when everyone can just step out of the way?
Another valid argument in favor of playing with Mountains is that, even with the very limited amount of people who play it, even fewer people play the deck perfectly, or even bring a good list to the tournament. I know that I have personally been on both sides of this wall, and it feels so much better when you’re casting Jackal Pup instead of Mons’s Goblin Raiders. Even through this, Red decks have survived everything from Loxodon Hierarch to Kitchen Finks, and sometimes even blowout cards like Sphere of Law. They find ways to adapt, and WotC generally gives them enough weapons to combat the hate cards facing them. R&D doesn’t like creating cards that don’t interact with the opponent very much, so they tend to create answers in the form of “hate” cards. These are in turn fought off by Red mages with anti-hate cards like Sulfuric Vortex or Flaring Pain. Some games involve both players playing their own trump, but the deciding factor is often how much sideboard space to dedicate to these “answers,” as well as figuring out how to keep from diluting your deck with answers. I’m not one to quote people, but there is an old saying that says “your opponent can draw as many cards as he wants, just as long as he’s dead.” Somewhat akin to the Philosophy of Fire, which delegates certain values to damage dealt by creatures and spells, this mantra should be chanted by anyone who has ever “wasted” a burn spell by throwing it at their opponent’s face. If they’re dead, they can’t kill you.
So, that gives us three camps in which to set up shop.
1) Play Hell’s Thunder.
2) Play lots of hate cards.
3) Play a deck that is naturally solid against Mono Red.
If you choose option 1, then you are a very brave man. While Mono Red might be very good at the moment, it can go from awesome to terrible in a very short time-frame. I know that every time I play the “best deck” in a format, Johnny Sunshine and all of his friends play the anti-deck because they were “sick of losing to it at FNM.” These situations can get very sticky for someone playing a deck with so many clear vulnerabilities. Exploiting these vulnerabilities is something the least weathered of players can accomplish, if they are simply adding Kor Firewalker to their White Weenie maindeck. While this is not something you should plan on facing every round, you should expect something like this to come up at some point in your career if you are continually playing with the known best deck in every format. I know that I was bashed plenty of times by Mono Red decks when Faeries was the best deck in Standard, and I eventually threw my Bitterblossoms away for fear of Volcanic Fallout. However, there is always a right time and a wrong time to play the best deck, and figuring that out for yourself at any given tournament is what separates the good players from the great players. Sometimes the overall power level of a deck is just too intoxicating to play anything else, and sometimes you die to Anathemancer.
Now, I know for a fact that most die-hard Red mages haven’t put down their Lightning Bolts since the release of M10, and I can definitely find value in a decision based on principle or love of a certain kind of Magic. It is rare that you find someone as devoted to an archetype as the gung-ho Mono Red players (except for Mono Black Control players, who have been given many a gift in M11), but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Just playing the deck you know best will often give you better results than if you tried something new that you had never played before. Just because someone says one deck is better than another doesn’t mean you will prosper with it without playing it a lot. If you enjoy something, why change what you’re doing? This is especially true if the deck you are playing is providing you with better results than everything else you have tried. I’m not saying you should never play a different deck besides Mono Red, but if that’s what suits you, then by all means burn your heart out. Mono Red plays some of the most powerful spells in Standard, and a lot of the most powerful cards even found in Extended.
As for option 2, you have a few things you can try out. M11 is shaping up to be a great set, and is giving people the ability to fight against the onslaught of Blightnings and the like. I know I’ve mentioned this guy a few times already, but every Green mage is going to want to find themselves in the possession of four Obstinate Baloths from the start. He is your answer to Blightning. He is your answer to Hell’s Thunder. He is your answer to Searing Blaze. Now, with that said, Red mages can adapt to these strategies as well, using the aforementioned Leyline of Punishment. However, if they choose to dilute their deck with these anti-hate cards, or just don’t have it in their opening hand, it can be a virtual dead card for the remainder of the game. The best way to beat Mono Red is figuring out your deck’s route to victory, then using every resource in your power to facilitate this goal. Most Eldrazi Monument based decks would be wise to side those Monuments out for games 2 and 3, because it is pretty much a dead card when playing against Mono Red. They are looking to kill all of your early creatures while getting in a little damage, and ultimately dealing you the last few points via direct damage. Eldrazi Monument doesn’t help in this regard, and does little to win the game when you have one or two measly guys sitting in play. Sure, sometimes it can win the game, but even rags become riches on occasion.
The best method to beat red with hate cards is to figure out the best hate cards for whatever colors you are playing. However, if you are playing a three-color deck, try not to focus on cards that have a difficult requirement to cast them, such as Kor Firewalker in a Mythic Bant deck. The WW-casting cost is going to severely limit your ability to cast him before your opponent runs you over, if only due to the high number of Forests the deck plays. While it is correct to play that many forests, don’t expect your Birds of Paradise or Noble Hierarch to live long enough to cast the little Dragon’s Claw-with-legs. It probably won’t happen. Even Rhox War Monk is easier to cast, and does a fine job at wrecking them if they don’t have a Flame Slash. If they’re spending two burn spells on him, then that’s usually enough to buy you time to set up your end-game, whether that be Gideon Jura, Baneslayer, or Sovereigns of Lost Alara. Wall of Reverence is another awesome sideboard card that a lot of people have forgotten about, and you would do well to try it out yourself. Even though you are playing an aggressive deck, often you will have to become the control deck against Mono Red, leaving you in a very awkward spot. They are likely coming out of the gates with Goblin Guide, Hellspark Elemental, or Ball Lightning, and the best way to recuperate from this is with a big wall that gains life. If you ever stick Wall of Reverence on the third or fourth turn, they are going to have a lot of trouble dealing with it. Even if your Wall of Reverence only blocks a Ball Lightning while gaining you 2-4 life in the process, he has still put the Red mage in a precarious position, which is exactly where you want them to be.
The third and final group does not have very many options. White decks are inherently good against Red decks in this format, if only because of the existence of Path to Exile as a removal spell, as well as Kor Firewalker as an easily-cast sideboard card. UW Control and White Weenie are two very solid options for a metagame full of this much Jund and Mono Red. I would expect White or UW Weenie decks to become popular for a short period of time, if only due to the fact that they can legitimately maindeck Kor Firewalker without getting laughed at. Firewalker is pretty sick against Jund too, as their only real answer is Maelstrom Pulse, but Leech does a fine job at attacking through him. He’ll probably gain you a few life points and stall some Bloodbraid Elves, which is nice, but you never want to be put into the control role against Jund, because many of their aggressive draws just pummel people into the dirt.
UW Control is a very viable choice for the next few events, and especially so once they gain access to Mana Leak. Whether or not people actually know it yet, Mana Leak will define the new Standard, and if you are playing a deck that is weeks old, you will likely fold to the card that was almost “too good for Extended.” Mana Leak gives Blue decks a “new” option which they haven’t seen since the Reign of Jund, and hopefully it will give them a new foothold on a metagame as hostile as this one. Decks that rely on Planeswalkers to win might not have a shot anymore, since waiting two or more turns to cast your Planeswalker is rarely a viable option. However, running them into a viable Counterspell is not something they’ve had to endure for quite some time, and I am happy to say that I welcome it with open arms. Thanks Mana Leak. You’ve made Standard fun again! Now, I can definitely see why WotC waited so long to reprint Mana Leak, as that card would have made Faeries an even bigger annoyance than they already were, but now every deck is a clunky midrange deck that does nothing for the first few turns, aside from the Mono Red decks. That is one reason they have been so successful, since they exploit the weaknesses of a format that doesn’t get started until Turn 4.
As far as I’m concerned, M11 is shaking things up in an awesome way, and I couldn’t be more excited for Nationals. I have a few PTQs left this season, and I’m hoping to get there one way or another. I don’t know what’s going to happen to me if I don’t qualify for Amsterdam, but it probably won’t be pretty. Just don’t stand in my way and I promise you won’t get hurt.
Thanks for reading.
Todd
strong sad on MTGO