After waxing lyrical on the Blue cards from Coldsnap, Julien turns his attention to the Black selection. He reveals his current favorite triple-Coldsnap draft strategy, and presents a handy table that uncovers the math behind the ripple mechanic. Wanna know the probability of hitting your ripple spells at any time in the game? Look no further…Black’s up next, and this article includes a chart that shows you the expected number of ripple copies you will hit, depending on the number of cards left in your deck and how many of those are copies of that ripple spell. I have to say that, so far, Black/Red has been my favorite archetype to draft; there are so many playable cards, and therefore you can pick the snow lands higher than you would usually. This deck can also be drafted two ways: the aggressive black/red deck, optimally using the red Goblin Rimerunner, or the more defensive variant that tries to stay alive with regenerating creatures and have the large amount of available removal spells win you the long game.
Balduvian Fallen
I’m not a fan of creatures with an upkeep cost, as they deny you some mana making it harder for you to play more spells, but Balduvian Fallen makes up for that as it’s just huge for its cost. 4/5, 5/5, 6/5… then you might choose to sacrifice it, but it’s probably already dealt fifteen damage on its way out, or traded for a higher casting-cost creature. Black/Red decks don’t have a lot of big creatures, so Balduvian Fallen is always a great addition.
8/10
Chill to the Bone
While you might not be able to destroy exactly the creature you want at all times, you will always be able to kill something good with it. I’ve rarely seen cases in which a player didn’t like drawing Chill to the Bone. In Black/Red decks, one of your main problems can be Ronom Hulk. All of your regenerating creatures are snow, and Chill to the Bone works well against the 5/6 beatstick. I always try to have two copies in my Black/Red decks.
8/10
Chilling Shade
The quality of this creature, of course, depends on the number of snow lands that you’re running. In most Black/Red and Black/Blue decks, you will be looking for as many snow lands as possible, and if you think you’ll be able to activate this with about one out of three mana sources, it is well worth it. If you don’t have that many snow mana sources, it can still be fine, but you probably want another three-drop to replace it. I’ve noticed that it’s not big deal picking up Chilling Shades; they often come around after the first eight picks, so there’s usually no real harm in picking up a few.
6/10
Deathmark
Normally I’d only play cards like this one only in the sideboard, but Deathmark is just so powerful that it’s worthy of maindeck play. Most of the time, if I haven’t picked too many playable cards yet, I prefer picking up a card that I don’t need to sideboard out, because picking up Deathmark requires you to have one more playable in your sideboard. But in this format, I’ve found that most of the time you will have plenty of playable spells, so picking up a Deathmark early in the draft isn’t that harmful.
8/10
Disciple of Tevesh Szat
As I’ve said before, this is the key common against Blue/White decks as they don’t have a lot of cards that deal with it, but they do have creatures that die to it. It is not often a problem getting your hands on four-casting cost spells for Black-based decks, especially Black/Red, and that’s a reason to pass it in preference of another good spell… but I always want to make sure that I have about two copies of this in case I play against Blue/White. You don’t necessarily have to play them in the maindeck; they’re not nearly as good against Green decks as they are against White/Blue decks, and you’ll often have other creatures with the same casting cost. It’s still a reasonably decent man against such decks because of the second ability.
7/10
Feast of Flesh
It obviously gets better when you’ve got multiples, but the first one has been surprisingly useful to me. Disciple of Tevesh Szat. Squall Drifter, Surging Sentinels, Orcish Bloodpainter, Boreal Druid, and Bull Aurochs are all commons that everyone will play that don’t survive the first Feast of Flesh. After that, every copy you draw is simply a good removal spell, so the only copy that might not be worth it is the first one… but it often is. I’m surprised how late these seem to go round. If you notice that no one is picking them up, don’t be afraid to do it yourself.
7/10
Garza’s Assassin
Unless the casting cost is too much to ask from your deck, Garza’s Assassin is amazing. The recover ability might seem risky – and it is – but when you’re attacking, removing another blocker with it will deal him damage as well, and gain you card advantage. Besides, the ability is optional, and Garza’s Assassin is already a very good card without the recover effect. As a first pick in your first pack, the casting cost might scare you, but remember that you’re only two colors 95% of the time in this format. You’ll be able to cast it if Black is one of your colors, so it’s about as committing as first-picking a single colored mana spell.
9/10
Grim Harvest
First it’s a Raise Dead, then whenever you have it with enough mana open, your opponent can’t choose to trade creatures anymore as you can simply fetch them back. It is a very expensive trick though, and I don’t think the format is slow enough to make this card with it, although in some matchups it’s a good sideboard card. In the previous format, this card would have been much better, but this one is all about curving. Having to keep mana open to gain a one-card advantage over two turns is just not good enough.
4/10
Gristle Grinner
There are many five mana 3/3 creatures with mediocre abilities that make them playable, and Gristle Grinner is one of them. He’s hard for your opponent to block when you’ve got mana open, as he might expose himself to two-for-one trades, and you’ll often have a lot of removal in a Black deck. Black decks are also often overloaded on four-drops that are just better on turn five than Gristle Grinner (like Zombie Musher), but if you really need to fill out your slot, it’s always playable.
5/10
Gutless Ghoul
It’s not just a Gray Ogre; the ability has made quite a difference for me in some longer games. If it sticks around after the first few turns, it can gain you a lot of life, although it’s also fine to trade it for something in the early game. The ability makes this card very playable, and the fact that it’s a snow creature also helps a lot in Blue/Black and Red/Black decks.
7/10
Haakon, Stromgald Scourge
Unless you’ve got some sick combo I don’t know about, casting Haakon is a long shot, and you should leave it to Constructed decks. The ability to return this, and maybe some other guys, is very powerful against some control decks. From the top of my head I can think of only Faith’s Fetters to solve it, but in Black decks you’ll have ways to get rid of your own guy as well, like Lyzolda, the Blood Witch… or just another Haakon. Then again, you do need some way to discard it in the first place, and it is probably not worth the trouble.
1/10
Herald of Leshrac
The late-game winner for when you need it, but in this format you don’t want to play too many high-casting cost spells as it’s just too fast for that. If you have a lot of removal – and Black decks tend to have that a lot – you will be able to survive until the late game. You can play Herald of Leshrac to finish it off. The necessary late-game winner, if you need it.
6/10
Krovikan Rot
Against some decks, you’ll be happy to just trade it off for his two-drop, but I’ve seen it do a lot more against more control-like decks, like Blue/White. You’ll destroy one of his tappers or Frost Drakes, and then he won’t be able to trade a creature when he’s blocking anymore since there’ll always be good targets for this once recovered. It’s merely playable against some decks, but it can be very good against others.
7/10
Krovikan Scoundrel
Two-drops with two power like this one will be as good, as they compare to the other available creatures in the two-slot. Unfortunately for the Scoundrel, most decks have access to much stronger two-drops, but I’ve had a few aggressive Black/Red decks that really needed this in the two-slot. It’s a late pick, and in Black/Red you should be content to pick a few up. They will make your deck sometimes, because of the lack of two-drops in that color combination.
6/10
Martyr of Bones
One mana 1/1 creatures aren’t usually very useful in Limited unless they produce mana or have another great ability… and Martyr of Bones doesn’t have a great ability. Sometimes it’s okay to side in against a deck with many copies of Sound the Call, but apart from that its ability is pretty useless and it shouldn’t be played.
2/10
Phobian Phantasm
If your manabase can support it, Phobian Phantasm is a great creature. Your opponent has to get rid of him quickly, to halt the quick clock this creature creates. It’s almost unblockable, and in most cases it will be a must-kill for your opponent, but you’re probably going to have to sacrifice it after a few turns. I’ve seen a lot of decks with as many as ten Swamps, but still it’ll be hard to maintain. If it sticks around for three or four turns, that’s fine as well. It’s also an Illusion, which helps Krovikan Mist, but that’s a small detail.
7/10
Phyrexian Etchings
While it may look completely unplayable to you, I’ve drafted a deck in which it was one of my better spells. It was nearly mono-Black, splashing a few Red cards, with five copies of Feast of Flesh to make the card-drawing more effective, and the danger of lost life less threatening. I had a lot of other removal spells in this deck, and the overall casting cost wasn’t too high. If you’ve drafted a cheap controllish deck like that, and you’re playing lots of Black (say, ten swamps), this card can be much better than it looks.
In Constructed, look out for this card. If the Time Spiral block brings us some good mono-Black control cards, and perhaps a card to combo nicely with Phyrexian Etchings, it can become huge. If there’s another Cabal Coffers-effect, it will be especially good, because you can stay ahead of the cumulative upkeep.
6/10
Rime Transfusion
I’m not a fan of creature enchantments that do not work straight away, and Rime Transfusion’s power isn’t exactly stellar. This format has a lot of snow creatures, so it doesn’t even guarantee that it’s unblockable. If your deck is very aggressive, I can understand that you might play this card, but I’ve not seen a deck that needed another playable like this.
3/10
Rimebound Dead
The controllish variants of Black decks will look for this (and Zombie Musher) to keep up the defenses against bigger creatures without trample. You will want snow lands in the most common Black decks anyway, so finding a source to regenerate them with isn’t a big deal. When you can’t regenerate it, or when you’re playing against another defensive deck, it can be as bad as any 1/1 creature for one mana, but in some matchups it can be very helpful.
6/10
Surging Dementia
With the help of Roel van Heeswijk and Jasper Blaas, I made a chart that shows the expected number of ripple spells hit, having a certain number of cards left in your deck with a certain number of copies of the ripple spell:
| 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 40 |
2.06
|
1.50
|
1.09
|
0.79
|
0.55
|
0.37
|
0.22
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
| 39 |
2.18
|
1.57
|
1.14
|
0.82
|
0.57
|
0.38
|
0.23
|
0.10
|
0.00
|
| 38 |
2.31
|
1.66
|
1.19
|
0.85
|
0.59
|
0.39
|
0.23
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
| 37 |
2.47
|
1.75
|
1.25
|
0.88
|
0.61
|
0.40
|
0.24
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
| 36 |
2.64
|
1.85
|
1.31
|
0.92
|
0.64
|
0.42
|
0.25
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
| 35 |
2.83
|
1.96
|
1.38
|
0.97
|
0.66
|
0.43
|
0.26
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
| 34 |
3.04
|
2.09
|
1.46
|
1.01
|
0.69
|
0.45
|
0.26
|
0.12
|
0.00
|
| 33 |
3.29
|
2.23
|
1.54
|
1.06
|
0.72
|
0.47
|
0.27
|
0.12
|
0.00
|
| 32 |
3.58
|
2.40
|
1.63
|
1.12
|
0.75
|
0.48
|
0.28
|
0.13
|
0.00
|
| 31 |
3.91
|
2.58
|
1.74
|
1.18
|
0.79
|
0.50
|
0.29
|
0.13
|
0.00
|
| 30 |
4.29
|
2.79
|
1.86
|
1.25
|
0.83
|
0.53
|
0.30
|
0.13
|
0.00
|
| 29 |
4.69
|
3.04
|
1.99
|
1.32
|
0.87
|
0.55
|
0.32
|
0.14
|
0.00
|
| 28 |
5.05
|
3.32
|
2.14
|
1.41
|
0.92
|
0.58
|
0.33
|
0.14
|
0.00
|
| 27 |
5.30
|
3.64
|
2.32
|
1.50
|
0.97
|
0.60
|
0.34
|
0.15
|
0.00
|
| 26 |
5.55
|
4.01
|
2.52
|
1.61
|
1.03
|
0.63
|
0.36
|
0.15
|
0.00
|
| 25 |
5.80
|
4.37
|
2.76
|
1.73
|
1.09
|
0.67
|
0.37
|
0.16
|
0.00
|
| 24 |
6.05
|
4.63
|
3.04
|
1.87
|
1.17
|
0.71
|
0.39
|
0.17
|
0.00
|
| 23 |
6.30
|
4.88
|
3.35
|
2.04
|
1.25
|
0.75
|
0.41
|
0.17
|
0.00
|
| 22 |
6.54
|
5.13
|
3.69
|
2.23
|
1.34
|
0.79
|
0.43
|
0.18
|
0.00
|
| 21 |
6.77
|
5.38
|
3.97
|
2.46
|
1.45
|
0.85
|
0.46
|
0.19
|
0.00
|
| 20 |
6.99
|
5.62
|
4.22
|
2.73
|
1.58
|
0.91
|
0.48
|
0.20
|
0.00
|
| 19 |
7.19
|
5.85
|
4.46
|
3.03
|
1.73
|
0.98
|
0.51
|
0.21
|
0.00
|
| 18 |
7.37
|
6.07
|
4.71
|
3.31
|
1.91
|
1.06
|
0.55
|
0.22
|
0.00
|
| 17 |
7.54
|
6.27
|
4.94
|
3.56
|
2.13
|
1.15
|
0.59
|
0.24
|
0.00
|
| 16 |
7.67
|
6.46
|
5.16
|
3.79
|
2.40
|
1.26
|
0.63
|
0.25
|
0.00
|
| 15 |
7.79
|
6.61
|
5.36
|
4.03
|
2.65
|
1.40
|
0.69
|
0.27
|
0.00
|
| 14 |
7.88
|
6.75
|
5.54
|
4.25
|
2.89
|
1.56
|
0.75
|
0.29
|
0.00
|
| 13 |
7.94
|
6.85
|
5.69
|
4.45
|
3.13
|
1.76
|
0.82
|
0.31
|
0.00
|
| 12 |
7.98
|
6.93
|
5.82
|
4.63
|
3.34
|
2.02
|
0.91
|
0.33
|
0.00
|
| 11 |
8.00
|
6.98
|
5.91
|
4.77
|
3.54
|
2.22
|
1.02
|
0.36
|
0.00
|
| 10 |
8.00
|
7.00
|
5.77
|
4.88
|
3.71
|
2.43
|
1.16
|
0.40
|
0.00
|
| 9 |
8.00
|
7.00
|
6.00
|
4.96
|
3.84
|
2.64
|
1.33
|
0.44
|
0.00
|
| 8 |
8.00
|
7.00
|
6.00
|
5.00
|
3.94
|
2.79
|
1.57
|
0.50
|
0.00
|
| 7 |
—
|
7.00
|
6.00
|
5.00
|
4.00
|
2.91
|
1.71
|
0.57
|
0.00
|
| 6 |
—
|
—
|
6.00
|
5.00
|
4.00
|
3.00
|
1.87
|
0.67
|
0.00
|
| 5 |
—
|
—
|
—
|
5.00
|
4.00
|
3.00
|
2.00
|
0.80
|
0.00
|
| 4 |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
4.00
|
3.00
|
2.00
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
| 3 |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
3.00
|
2.00
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
| 2 |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
2.00
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
| 1 |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1.00
|
0.00
|
| 0 |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0.00
|
(If anyone wants a full explanation for the statistics in the table, ask for it in the forums)
This card shows that, for example, if you have six copies of Surging Dementia left in your deck, and you’re playing first and didn’t take any mulligans, and you’re playing it on the second turn… this would result in an average of 1.63 copies, so a total average of 2.63 cards would be discarded. Assuming you play Surging Dementia on the second turn and you don’t mulligan (which is the most common situation when you’re playing many copies of Surging Dementia), these two rows are relevant:
| 32 |
3.58
|
2.40
|
1.63
|
1.12
|
0.75
|
0.48
|
0.28
|
0.13
|
0.00
|
| 31 |
3.91
|
2.58
|
1.74
|
1.18
|
0.79
|
0.50
|
0.29
|
0.13
|
0.00
|
If you’ve got a total of nine copies, your opponent will discard an average of 4.58 copies (when you are drawing first) and 4.91 (playing first), and so on. There’s a bit more to this card than these statistics though. Once the early game is over, discard spells become a lot less powerful, as you probably won’t be able to make your opponent discard many spells. This means that there is a contradiction: if you’re playing at least one Surging Dementia in your deck, you will always play many copies (as it’s too weak with too little copies), meaning that more cards in your deck are useless once late-game has started… which is a reason why you wouldn’t want to play it. The real reason to play it is that it can win you games if you do hit a lot of copies, and how many copies you need to make that work depends on how desperate your deck is for a way to win games.
Drafting them is another issue. You don’t want to pick them up too early, because it’s a bit risky to pick up a card that you might not even play over a card that you will always play, but if you wait too late to pick them up they might be gone already. My advice is to try and table one copy in a weak booster, and if that works, you can be reasonably sure that no one else will pick them up before you do. Still, most of the time you need around seven to make them good, and an eight-man draft has an average of five copies of each common.
5/10
Tresserhorn Skyknight
A big flying guy, but it’s very expensive, and the ability isn’t really useful. If you really need something to finish the game, this five-power flying creature can be of service to you, but it’s not going to make your deck 90% of the time.
3/10
Void Maw
This one is big… really big. By itself, it’s a decent body for its cost, but Black usually has a lot of removal, making it bigger and bigger. Black doesn’t have access to a lot of good big guys like this one, that’s why I value it more than most commons and uncommons.
8/10
Zombie Musher
Dimir House Guard is back, and I’d say that most of the time it’s about as good as House Guard used to be. While it’s a bit slow, you will always find a good use for it, be it to slowly kill your opponent or prevent yourself from being killed by huge ground creatures. It’s never amazing, but it’ll always find its role since its abilities both work the majority of the time.
7/10
…
Black seems to be a powerful color, with many playable cards but no real insane commons. The best card is a fine removal spell in Chill to the Bone, and after that is a whole bunch of good cards, but they’re not amazing by any means. Black is a safe color to draft, as you’ll always get enough playables, but in some drafts you’ll need more than a “good” deck to win the whole thing.
That’s it for Black. Tomorrow, Red!
Julien