Buying High And Selling Low After The Pro Tour

This is it. The high water mark for Dragons of Tarkir singles. Remember how it seemed like every decent card in Khans of Tarkir was $8-$15 about three
weeks after set release? Our current market is just like that for the latest expansion. It’s all downhill from here.

So why the heck is my article this week about buying cards from Dragons of Tarkir? Have I gone totally bananas? Perhaps, but I’d appreciate it if
you’d hear me out before picking up your oversized butterfly net and booking a flight to Los Angeles. In Magic finance, things are always more complex than
they appear at first glance.

First of all, nothing solidifies the Standard metagame quite like a Pro Tour. Even though we live in in a world where you have to walk into a Grand Prix
prepared to face multiple copies a rogue deck that 4-0’ed a daily event on MTGO the previous night, most Magic players don’t change up their strategies
that often. For the most part, people will select a deck that did well at a PT, build it themselves, and stick with it for anywhere from three months to a
year. If you’re looking to find the cards that should have the greatest demand at your LGS over the next few months, the Top 8 from Pro Tour Dragons of
Tarkir is the best place to start.

This sort of emulation is nothing new, but it has become more pronounced over the past few years. Now that Pro Tours are directly linked to set releases,
they have become something akin to the final word on each new expansion. Deckbuilders will continue to innovate with Dragons of Tarkir cards, but it’s very
rare that a top tier deck emerges between a Pro Tour and the following set release. If an obvious deck (say, Mono-Blue Devotion) doesn’t show up at the Pro
Tour, amateur deckbuilders assume that the strategy was considered, tested, and discarded by the big pro teams. Demand for those cards tank very quickly as
people move away from big picture format innovation and gravitate toward modifying known powerhouses. Cards that people have been holding for the past few
weeks in case they found a home at the PT will start to flood the market, and prices will drop hard.

For the most part, Magic finance is a game of buying low and selling high. I write a lot about how to play the seasonal trends and build your collection by
making smart speculation purchases. After a Pro Tour, however, there is a window where it makes some sense to buy high and sell low. Let’s consider the
following two cards:

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon showed up in five of the top 8 decks at the PT. Current retail price: $39.99.

Narset Transcendent showed up in zero of the top 8 decks at the PT. Current retail price: $34.69.

StarCityGames is ahead of the curve here. If you look both cards up on a site that is commonly used for ensuring even trades, Ugin and Narset’s values are
within twenty cents of each other right now. The pertinent question isn’t which of these cards you’d rather own-that should be obvious-but just how far you
should be willing to adjust your prices in order to make a deal involving them. If you’re giving up a tanking staple, can you safely value Ugin at $45?
What about $50? As long as you’re getting the right card in return, can you value Narset at $30? Could you safely go as low as $25?

I hesitate to set a line in the sand. In the right deal, I’d trade a Narset at $25 and I’d buy Ugin at $50, but for the most part, that kind of drastic
price adjustment is unnecessary. You should never be afraid to adjust your prices to the situation at hand, though, and in the world of smartphone-enabled
trading, giving your partner ‘value’ is often the best way to make a favorable deal. After all, I can point at several top tier decks right now that need
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon to function. If you’re betting on Narset over the short term, you’re hoping that either the Jeskai Tokens or U/W Control deck that
didn’t make much of an impact at the Pro Tour will carry her demand into your FNM. It might happen, but the odds aren’t nearly as good.

This holds true for lower profile cards as well. If you’re betting on Shorecrasher Elemental, you’re all-in on a Mono-Blue Devotion deck that hasn’t shown
up outside of a third place finish at South Carolina States. Ojutai Exemplars, Sarkhan Unbroken, and several other $5+ Dragons of Tarkir cards have had
even less visible success than Narset. While some of these spells will end up making an impact before they rotate out of Standard, they’re probably all
going to bottom out first. Trading them away below retail in order to get out early might prevent you from having to ride them all the way to the bottom of
the market. If you give a steep trade discount on these cards, you can dazzle some people with what appears to be an amazing deal when all you’re really
doing is trading them away at next week’s price.

On the flip side, you’re going to need something to trade for. Your first focus should be on the Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged staples that no longer
have that sexy short-term upside-Siege Rhino, Dig Through Time, the fetchlands, and Tasigur, the Golden Fang have already spiked, dropped, and settled at a
reasonable price. This isn’t always an option, though. Some people are hesitant to trade cards that aren’t being drafted any more, and if you play in a
small community, you may have already exhausted all of your trade options for these cards. On the other hand, everyone knows that Dragons cards are going
to drop, and some people are eager to trade them at a loss in order to get out before the inevitable fall. While I don’t love trading for newer cards at
the height of their value, at least we know that there will be demand for new staples like Atarka, Silumgar, and Icefall Regent over the next few months.
Sometimes, taking a small loss on cards like this in order to ensure that your Standard collection will still be desirable in a couple of weeks is well
worth it. Even though Dragons of Tarkir as a whole will never be worth more than it was at the end of last weekend, trading for these cards today might
still prove to be the right move.

What is Standard likely to look like over the next few months and which cards will stay hot even after the Pro Tour buzz has subsided? Let’s find out:

Atarka Red

Martin Dang

1st Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (15)

Lands (20)

Spells (25)

Sideboard

There’s been some variation of Mono-Red Aggro kicking around the format since last summer, though the green splash is new. Atarka Red is full of cheap
commons and uncommons, so as long as you’re willing to drop $20 on a set of Stoke the Flames, your path to building it is fairly easy. This deck is going
to be really popular online, as burn decks generally are.

While single deck aggro cards have limited upside, it’s nice to see Zurgo Bellstriker getting some love here. I have to believe that some variant of
Mono-Red Aggro will continue to be viable, and I’d expect Zurgo to come along for the ride. That means the potential for price spikes toward $5-$6
depending on tournament finish, local demand, and distance to set rotation. Trading for these at $3.75 right now is fine if you need them.

Mana Confluence is another interesting card from a financial perspective. I expected it to make a bigger impact in Standard than it did, but since we’re
fairly close to Theros block rotation, I can’t recommend buying in now even if Atarka Red takes off. I can’t see this going above $15 regardless, so
there’s simply not enough profit potential to warrant a speculation buy. Mana Confluence is still a juicy post-rotation pick-up, though, and I’ll be
telling everyone to buy it at $5 this August.

Unfortunately for those of you looking to actually play this deck in PPTQs, Mana Confluence isn’t optional if you’re a serious player. Atarka’s Command is
an awesome addition, and the deck does not function as well without it. It’s not quite as good as Boros Charm was in previous iterations of mostly Mono-Red
Aggro decks, but three damage plus a team pump is sweet. If you have to buy or trade for Mana Confluences now, just know that your best bet will be to ride
them down through rotation and sell them in 2-3 years when the price rebounds.

As for Atarka’s Command itself, I can’t recommend buying right now unless you absolutely have to. At almost $8, there’s really only one direction for this
card to go over the short term. Atarka’s Command might show up in Modern at some point, but we’re not there yet. Zurgo is only $3.75, remember, and it sees
a similar amount of Standard play right now. I like Atarka’s Command more, but it’s very hard for any multicolored Standard rare to stay above $5 for long.

U/B Control

Shouta Yasooka

2nd Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (6)

Planeswalkers (1)

1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Lands (26)

Spells (27)

Sideboard

If I had to pick a breakout deck from the Pro Tour, this would be it. I’ve been riding the Dragonlord Silumgar hype train since my set review, so it was nice to see him
strutting his stuff on Magic’s biggest stage last weekend. Financially, Silumgar’s price hasn’t gone as nuts as Dragonlords Atarka or Ojutai. That’s
because he isn’t as important to his archetype-Adrian Sullivan didn’t run a single copy of Silumgar in his 75, and the other two U/B Control decks in the
Top 8 are running him as two-ofs. You simply can’t afford to stuff your deck with too many legendary six-drops, so the upside here is minimal. Silumgar is
a fantastic casual card, though, and I’d expect demand to keep him in the $12-$15 range for a while. That’s pretty close to current retail, so buying a
copy or two right now is fine if you need it.

Icefall Regent is another card I liked from the outset. I didn’t expect it to find a home this soon, though. As Standard transitions toward a format with
big haymakers (a trend that is likely to continue when Battle for Zendikar bring us a batch of band new Eldrazi), Icefall Regent’s stock will continue to
rise. $5 seems about right, so there’s very little upside or risk here. I’m fine trading for these at current retail if you need them, but the speculation
window is long closed.

If you’re looking for sleeper picks from this deck, both Crux of Fate and Silumgar, the Drifting Death feel undervalued to me. At $1.99, Silumgar, the
Drifting Death should find a home in basically every U/B Control shell. That should see him settle in closer to $4-$5. Crux of Fate is one of the best
cards in this deck, and that should lead to a $5-$6 price tag at some point soon. Casual demand helps a lot there as well-anyone building a Dragon deck for
their kitchen table tournament wants as many copies of this as they can get. $3.49 is too low. I’m buying.

G/R Devotion

Ondrej Strasky

3rd Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (32)

Lands (24)

Spells (4)

4 See the Unwritten

Sideboard

G/R Devotion is not a cheap deck. Courser of Kruphix, Polukranos, World Eater, and Sylvan Caryatid aren’t as pricey as they once were, but the bevy of
rares and mythics you need here does add up. Dragonlord Atarka is the pricest card in the deck, which makes sense considering how important it is. Unlike
Silumgar, who is a two-of in his own archetype, Atarka has been showing up as a four-of in multiple decks. Add that to the casual Dragon multiplier, and
you have the recipe for a $20 card.

Can Atarka maintain that figure? That depends on the success of the other decks that use her. A bunch of the G/R Dragons builds I’ve seen have been focused
entirely on the smaller Dragons (Stormbreath Dragon, Thunderbreak Regent), but a bunch of them climb the curve all the way to Atarka at seven. If both of
those decks stay tier one and Atarka ends up as a four-of in both, we’re looking at $25-$30 mythic rare. If not, she’ll likely fall back toward $10-$15.
I’d never speculate on a $20 Standard rare, but if you asked me to guess what the most valuable card in the set will be a month from now, Dragonlord Atarka
would be my choice. Grabbing a personal playset now is perfectly reasonable.

Whisperwood Elemental was also a four-of in this G/R devotion deck, but I don’t expect it to see the same kind of price hike. The G/W Devotion deck that
had previously been a force in Standard did not end up at the top tables of the Pro Tour, which makes me worried about the short-term future of its
staples. Whisperwood Elemental found a new home in this deck, but I’m bearish on both Deathmist Raptor and Mastery of the Unseen right now. I’m going to
have to see better results from G/W Devotion, G/W Aggro, or Chromanti-Flayer before I can recommend Deathmist Raptor as a hold. At $19.99, this card is
more expensive than Dragonlord Atarka. I’d happily trade a Raptor for an Atarka right now based on the PT results.

You can snag copies of Surrak, the Hunt Caller for less than $3 on StarCity right now, and that’s my favorite buy in Magic at the moment. Even though he’s
got double green in his casting cost, Surrak has popped up in G/R Devotion, G/R Dragons, Temur Aggro, Abzan Aggro, and all matter of random Jund and Bant
Midrange brews. I love cards that have a home in an established deck while also having a shot at breaking out in multiple rogue archetypes. The floor and
ceiling are both pretty high here. Get your set now.

See the Unwritten didn’t spike because of Atarka-it jumped because people are pumped about Battle for Zendikar. The fact that it is already seeing high
level play bodes really well for its future, though. At less than $5, there’s a ton of upside here. I’m holding my copies for now, and there’s still a shot
it’ll hit $20 when the first mythic Eldrazi titan is spoiled.

Rattleclaw Mystic is another staple from this deck that I absolutely love. If Atarka is going to keep being a thing (it is) and Sylvan Caryatid rotates (it
will), Rattleclaw Mystic will only grow in importance. You can snag SP copies for $1.55 on StarCity still, which is a fantastic deal. There’s no reason not
to own a set or two right now.

G/R Devotion

Thomas Hendriks

7th Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (35)

Planeswalkers (2)

2 Xenagos, the Reveler

Lands (23)

Sideboard

This is a very different take on G/R Devotion, focusing more on the Genesis Hydra plan that has been popular for the past several months. Genesis Hydra
would have spiked by now if it was ever going to, so I can’t really recommend it as a buy. Ditto for Hornet Queen and Xenagos, the Reveler, which are just
too close to set rotation to excite anyone at the moment. Ah well.

$5.45 is still too high for an unproven mythic like Shaman of Forgotten Ways, but seeing it in this deck puts it back on my radar somewhat. This card has
$10-$15 upside in the right environment, so I’ll be monitoring the evolution of this deck pretty closely going forward. If this version of G/R Devotion
catches on, Shaman of Forgotten Ways might become a nice little trade target.

G/R Dragons

Jason Chung

5th Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (30)

Lands (23)

Spells (7)

Sideboard

The midrange power that this deck packs is unreal, and I expect it to be more popular than the G/R Devotion deck at FNMs and other local events.
Thunderbreak Regent is the key new card here, though Surrak is almost as important at a quarter of the price. Even though I like Thunderbreak Regent a lot,
$11.95 is an untenable price tag for a rare that isn’t multi-format or even multi-deck staple. It might sustain an $8-$10 price tag for a while, but
there’s no upside here. Unless you’re playing this as your primary Standard deck right now, I’d sell.

I doubt Crater’s Claws will ever be a format powerhouse, but with SP copies at $0.99 there’s a little bit of room for profit. You can generally trade for
these at a buck without much trouble because most people don’t consider it a Standard-playable card, and there’s a chance it’ll stabilize in the $2-$3
range at some point soon. It’s a nice low-risk, low-reward throw-in.

Abzan Control

Marco Cammilluzzi

6th Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (10)

Planeswalkers (5)

Lands (26)

Spells (19)

Sideboard

Abzan Aggro

Brad Nelson

14th Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (21)

Lands (26)

Spells (13)

Sideboard

Abzan had a very good Pro Tour. Multiple flavors of this deck were all over the top tables, and once you discount people’s Draft records you can see that
Abzan was actually underrepresented in the Top 8. I expect it will continue to be tier one strategy moving forward.

Even though Marco Cammilluzzi didn’t run Dromoka’s Command in his controlling Abzan deck, the card did show up in most of the aggro and midrange lists.
Much like Atarka’s Command, Dromoka’s Command is a solid rare that will probably see Eternal play at some point. It isn’t currently seeing quite enough
play to justify its price tag, though. I love both Dromoka’s Command and Atarka’s Command long term, but the Pro Tour price bump here is just too steep for
me to recommend it as a buy. Only trade for these if you need them right away or if you think that Bant Midrange will join Abzan in the top tier of
Standard decks going forward.

This is your weekly reminder that Siege Rhino is underpriced. It was underpriced at $3 last winter, and it’s underpriced at $6 today. This is still the
cornerstone of Standard, and it’s a Modern playable card. I will always trade for these at current retail.

Bant Megamorph

Craig Wescoe

10th Place at Pro Tour on 04-10-2015

Standard

Creatures (28)

Lands (24)

Spells (8)

Sideboard

Den Protector was the day one buyout target this time around-that spicy little card that always seems to show up out of nowhere, spikes while the Pro Tour
is still going, but doesn’t quite make it into the Top 8. You can make money on these kinds of jumps if you act fast, but more often than not the price
drops off pretty quickly after the PT ends.

In this case, Den Protector has the unique advantage of being an excellent casual card. I’m pretty sure that I’ve never built a green Commander deck
without Eternal Witness, and Den Protector is a fine addition to most of those decks as well. That should keep the card around $3 even if Wescoe’s deck
doesn’t catch on. If it does, Den Protector could spike again. I don’t like it as a spec buy at this point, and I’m selling the copies I bought before the
Pro Tour hype, but if you need a copy it’s fine to grab it at current retail.

I spoke a little bit about Deathmist Raptor earlier, and I’m still fairly conflicted about the card. On the one hand, it’s a mono-colored three-drop mythic
that’s been a four-of in multiple winning decks already. On the other hand, one of those decks has fallen out of favor, the other didn’t quite get there,
and it’s the third most valuable in the entire set. With G/W Devotion falling so far, I’m selling Deathmist Raptor right now, but I wouldn’t fault you for
holding onto your set if you believe that it’ll find another home soon.

Dragonlord Ojutai is a good card, but $20.35 puts him at a higher price point than Dragonlord Atarka. With U/B Control establishing itself as the go-to
control deck in the format right now, Ojutai will need either this deck or Josh Utter-Leyton’s 11th-place Esper Control deck to gain market value in order
to succeed. I like that Ojutai is the finisher in two different winning strategies, but they’re fighting for the same small share of a fairly established
metagame. I expect Dragonlord Ojutai to fall back toward Silumgar territory in the $12-$15 range while Atarka continues to rise in price.

Overall, it was a fantastic weekend for a set that many were calling ‘Dragon’s Maze II’ during spoiler season. Far from being a bust, we’ve got an
expansion that will continue to impact Standard for months to come. I, for one, welcome our new Dragon overlords.

This Week’s Trends

-The finance community continues to hype up foil copies of Tasigur, the Golden Fang as the ideal long-term spec target. I agree. While the price has
steadily risen over the past few months, I can’t really see it dropping off at any point. I also like buying regular copies of Tasigur, even though
their price continues to drop. The card is so good that I have to expect you’ll have a chance to sell them at $10 or more if you’re patient enough.

-Even though it seems like Standard prices are rising fast, the overall format index is relatively flat. While the good Commands and Dragonlords are
shooting upward in price, tons of other cards have started to drop. Narset Transcendent, Monastery Mentor, Sarkhan Unbroken, Sorin, Solemn Visitor,
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, and Shaman of the Great Hunt are all trending down. In addition, rotational fears have started affecting Theros block
staples like Brimaz, Ashiok, and some of the Temples. This process will only accelerate as spring turns into summer. If you have any pricey Theros
block cards that you aren’t using, start making your plans to sell them or trade them away.