Welcome back everybody! A couple of weeks ago Matt Pavlic invited me to join him and the Everyday Eternal crew on their podcast and I was happy to accept.
Recording with them was a lot of fun and I suggest you go check out the result here. The reason I mention this-other than blatant
self-promotion, I mean-is that one subject that came up is one that goes back to the days when the only Eternal format was Vintage: the metagame divide
between Europe and North America. For some reason, Europeans always seem to do things differently from their counterparts on the other side of the pond.
This is something most long-time players are aware of but that often is overlooked by the cursory observer for one simple reason: Europe doesn’t have a
regular, large-scale tournament circuit like the SCG Open Series to give the European metagame visibility.
What Europe does have, however, is the awesome Bazaar of Moxen tournament (BOM for short) that happens once or twice a year in France and draws a huge
number of players from all over Europe to compete for an incredible prize pool. And it just so happens that the latest edition happened last weekend. And
while I was sadly unable to go to Annency once again, the organizers have given me the perfect opportunity to shine a spotlight on what the EU meta looks
like by providing not only the Top 8 decklists but a full metagame breakdown. So what I’ll be doing today is to first take a look at those eight
best-performing lists-there are a couple of surprising things to observe-and then draw conclusions and comparisons concerning the overall shape of the
metagame.
Source Data
I know some of you couldn’t care less about my babbling and only want to see the lists and numbers. This section is for you – a good analysis needs data to
work from, after all. Everything in this part is taken straight from the BOM homepage but collected here for
your convenience.
The Top 8 lists (out of 535 players):
Creatures (11)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (26)
Spells (20)
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (23)
Spells (19)
Creatures (30)
- 1 Llanowar Elves
- 4 Wirewood Symbiote
- 4 Quirion Ranger
- 1 Viridian Shaman
- 2 Birchlore Rangers
- 3 Heritage Druid
- 4 Nettle Sentinel
- 4 Elvish Visionary
- 2 Craterhoof Behemoth
- 4 Deathrite Shaman
- 1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
Lands (19)
Spells (11)
Sideboard
Creatures (27)
- 4 Mother of Runes
- 3 Serra Avenger
- 3 Flickerwisp
- 4 Stoneforge Mystic
- 2 Mirran Crusader
- 4 Phyrexian Revoker
- 4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1 Brimaz, King of Oreskos
- 2 Spirit of the Labyrinth
Lands (22)
- 11 Plains
- 4 Wasteland
- 3 Karakas
- 4 Rishadan Port
Spells (11)
Creatures (2)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (22)
Spells (32)
Creatures (4)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (22)
Spells (32)
Creatures (25)
- 3 Mother of Runes
- 2 Mangara of Corondor
- 2 Aven Mindcensor
- 2 Stoneforge Mystic
- 4 Leonin Arbiter
- 4 Phyrexian Revoker
- 4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 4 Spirit of the Labyrinth
Lands (26)
Spells (9)
Creatures (4)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (22)
Spells (31)
The metagame breakdown:
|
Archetype |
Players |
%Aggro |
%Total |
|
Death and Taxes |
25 |
16.8% |
4.7% |
|
Jund |
22 |
14.8% |
4.1% |
|
Canadian Threshold |
17 |
11.4% |
3.2% |
|
Merfolk |
12 |
8.1% |
2.2% |
|
UR Delver |
12 |
8.1% |
2.2% |
|
Patriot Aggro |
11 |
7.4% |
2.1% |
|
MUD |
7 |
4.7% |
1.3% |
|
Maverick |
6 |
4.0% |
1.1% |
|
Goblins |
5 |
3.4% |
0.9% |
|
Burn |
5 |
3.4% |
0.9% |
|
Mono Black |
4 |
2.7% |
0.7% |
|
Aggro Loam |
2 |
1.3% |
0.4% |
|
Affinity |
2 |
1.3% |
0.4% |
|
Zoo |
1 |
0.7% |
0.2% |
|
Other Aggro |
18 |
12.1% |
3.4% |
|
Total Aggro |
149 |
|
27.9% |
|
Archetype |
Players |
%Control |
%Total |
|
BUG Midrange |
96 |
45.9% |
17.9% |
|
UW Miracles |
46 |
22.0% |
8.6% |
|
Stoneblade |
23 |
11.0% |
4.3% |
|
The Rock (Junk) |
11 |
5.3% |
2.1% |
|
BUG Control |
3 |
1.4% |
0.6% |
|
Landstill |
2 |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
CounterTop |
2 |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
Lands |
2 |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
B/G Explorer |
2 |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
Other Control |
22 |
10.5% |
4.1% |
|
Total Control |
209 |
|
39.1% |
|
Archetype |
Players |
%Combo |
%Total |
|
35 |
19.8% |
6.5% |
|
|
Storm |
33 |
18.6% |
6.2% |
|
Elves |
32 |
18.1% |
6.0% |
|
Painter |
25 |
14.1% |
4.7% |
|
Dredge |
13 |
7.3% |
2.4% |
|
Reanimator |
10 |
5.6% |
1.9% |
|
Enchantress |
4 |
2.3% |
0.7% |
|
2 |
1.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
Belcher |
2 |
1.1% |
0.4% |
|
Other Combo |
21 |
11.9% |
3.9% |
|
Total Combo |
177 |
|
33.1% |
There’s one problem with the metagame breakdown in that for some reason whoever compiled it seems to have unified Team America (aka BUG Delver) and
Shardless BUG-two totally different decks-into one “BUG Midrange” category…or nobody played Delvers with their Deathrite Shamans, though that seems a lot
less likely than human error. Still, I don’t think that makes this breakdown useless, it’s just a little inconvenient.
The Top 8
Well, a couple of things stand out instantly when compared to American Top 8s. First, Delver of Secrets is conspicuous only in his absence. That’s right,
the feared insect that has been so dominating the US circuit hasn’t even made it to the elimination rounds in Europe. Even more shocking to observe,
however, is the fact that the by far most played color in this top eight is not the traditional blue but white. Six of the eight decks decided to
give Plains a chance compared to only four blue decks. Not only that, the non-blue decks significantly outperformed those sporting Islands and Brainstorms
with only one blue deck making it out of the quarterfinals, only to fall to a deck that had every color but blue in the finals.
Taking a closer look at the different lists, all three Miracles decks are quite close to what we could call the established list: base UW with lots of
basic lands, splashing red for Red Elemental Blasts and Pyroblasts to help with other blue decks in particular and the typical cantrips, removal,
countermagic, Counterbalance, miracles and Jace setup rounded out with a couple of flex cards. Nothing to write home about, the Top 8 saturation itself
aside. The one thing I find curious is that all three players came to the conclusion that having exactly two Stoneforge Mystic and one Batterskull in the
board is the correct configuration, though maybe running three Batterskulls (essentially) postboard is what it takes to beat the clock.
Meciek Berger’s Elves list isn’t particularly unusual either, aside from the maindeck Ruric Thar, the Unbowed and discard plus Swan Songs in the sideboard.
However, Europe generally is heavier on combo than the U.S. in my experience, so hedging in that direction makes a lot of sense. The last truly
traditional-looking list is the Death and Taxes Nick Steyns used to reach the semifinals. Sideboard Ensnaring Bridge and double Wilt-Leaf Liege
aside-someone really hates losing to Liliana of the Veil, I presume-his deck is exactly what I’d expect to play against when my opponent starts the game
with Plains, Aether Vial.
Wenzel Krautman, the other player able to present that opening, would likely send my head spinning during the game. Instead of turning into an actual
Stoneforge-beatdown deck to profit from Death and Taxes’s prison elements, he goes into total lockdown mode. By cutting all the beatdown creatures other
than two lonely Stoneforge Mystics, he manages to make room for a crazy package of hatebears:
Two Aven Mindcensors plus four Leonin Arbiters play hell with fetchlands to support the mana denial theme and allow him to rely not only on Wasteland and
Rishadan Port to attack the opponent’s mana but also on Ghost Quarter. Seeing as very few Legacy decks have more than a couple of basic lands-with quite a
few sporting none at all-and the creatures, it’s as if we’re back in the bad old days of having 4 Strip and 4 Wasteland in Vintage (if you didn’t play back
then, it was rather frustrating to say the least). This incredible focus on prisoning the opponent out of playing spells continues with all-star Thalia and
the return of the traditional Mangara of Corondor–Karakas lock to put the nail into the opponent’s coffin.
Running Born of the Gods darling Spirit of the Labyrinth as a four-of even makes sure the opponent can’t use the traditional Legacy answer to mana denial,
cantripping into more lands, to get out of the lock. Wenzel’s hardcore prison list is not only innovative to me but quite scary. I know the decks I usually
play, combo especially, definitely would like to dodge this pile of hate and play against a more traditional list that commits at least some cards to doing
useless things like just attacking me. I wouldn’t be surprised if an approach like this became industry standard in Legacy at some point.
That leaves us with our two finalists. Jean-Mary Accart, better known as Lejay, one of the few lord masters of Doomsday and GP Paris Top 8 competitor, has
been one of the champions and innovators of Shardless BUG for a while now and his lists always have spice compared to what everybody else is doing. I
especially like the two Toxic Deluge in his maindeck. Shardless BUG usually wins by grinding out overwhelming card advantage and a three-mana Wrath of God
to gain back any tempo lost by suspending Ancestral Visions and casting planeswalkers and Gray Ogres seems like a perfect fit for that strategy.
The cool things don’t end here, though. Lejay has often been greedy enough to add the fourth color for sideboard utility with the Shardless deck (same with
Doomsday, actually, now that I think about it). Before it was a minimal red splash to enable Whipflare from the sideboard; now he’s instead supporting
Meddling Mages to help deal with the combo menace, a brilliant angle of attack as BUG usually doesn’t have any hateful permanents, likely leaving
opponent’s stranded without answers to Pikula in game two.
He has used this approach in the past. His maindeck configuration dominates fair decks but largely sacrifices the unfair matchups, relying simply on four
Force of Will as disruption, while a strong sideboard allows him to turn things around in games two and three.
Niklas Kronberger, the man who finally stopped him and took the crown, definitely did so in style, reviving a real blast from the past: Four-Color Loam.
Like Jean-Mary, he went with minimal maindeck disruption-only Chalice of the Void and a multitude of ways to Wasteland his opponents-and a very greedy
gameplan. His deck combines a removal package of Punishing Fire (his reason to be red) and Abrupt Decay with Liliana of the Veil and Dark Confidant in
black; a minimal Green Sun’s Zenith package (Scavenging Ooze, Tarmogoyf, and Gaddock Teeg) that likely serves especially to provide more access to his
primary white card, Knight of the Reliquary; and finally the insane card-advantage and Wasteland-lock “engine” that is Life from the Loam.
Incredible greed and value in the maindeck dominate fair decks, while his sideboard turns towards the roughest pieces of hate imaginable to really lock
things down postboard. Choke and Thrun, the Last Troll will ruin Miracles and other blue decks; Golgari Charm and a couple of Disenchant effects take care
of True-Name Nemesis and equipment; and the additional Gaddock Teeg and three (!) Ethersworn Canonists complement the Chalices against Storm. Against other
graveyard decks he has also chosen the nuclear option in Leyline of the Void. I really like that Niklas has accepted that he shouldn’t be trying to do cute
things and tweaking with his sideboard cards, seeing as he doesn’t have cantrips to dig into them. Instead almost everything he will board in is utterly
backbreaking against his targets.
The only common combo deck largely ignored in the sideboard is Sneak and Show, and between Knight of the Reliquary finding Karakas and the ability for
Gaddock Teeg to stop Sneak Attack from being cast, he probably doesn’t need that much help there.
To be honest, the list isn’t that exceptional in the way it is built but mainly remarkable because Aggro-Loam has been out of favor for a while now. That
might be quite the oversight, though, as very different shells abusing the Ravnica sorcery have put up results both at GP Paris and in several Open Series
events earlier this year. It really looks like most of us have overlooked a hole in the metagame for a while now. Even though I can’t really explain why Loam decks should be doing well right now, the number of times they turn up high in the results in spite of the small amount of play they see
is becoming quite the indicator that something is up.
Metagame Considerations
By far the most played archetype in the metagame breakdown with 17.9%, more than twice the representation of the next closest archetype, is “BUG Midrange.”
Sadly, as mentioned before, that is likely to be the amalgamation of both Shardless BUG and Team America tempo decks, though, so that shouldn’t be
surprising. Even assuming an even split between the two, however, the two BUGs would still be the two most popular decks in the room, so it is safe to say
that both are quite popular in Europe at the moment.
The second- (or third-) most popular deck, however, strongly deviates from what is going on in the U.S. Instead of the StoneBlade shells so common in the
U.S., UW Miracles carries the control mantle in Europe, taking up 8.6% of the metagame compared to Stoneforge Mystic’s puny 4.3%.
The only other decks coming even close to this kind of representation, with around 6% each, are the format’s three premiere combo decks: Elves, Show and
Tell (I assume this bundles Sneak and Show and the different Omniscience builds), and Storm.
Only four other archetypes have managed to even crack the 4% mark: the aforementioned Stoneblade, Death and Taxes, Jund, and Painter. I suspect Painter was
mainly mono-Red Imperial Painter with people trying to hammer people with Blood Moon for fun and profit, a solid approach given the greedy manabases people
love, and yet harshly punished by the strong presence of both Death and Taxes and Miracles with their felt million basic lands.
That leaves us with one clear loser in the European metagame, a clear indication how the mighty have fallen in a sea of Miracles, different styles of BUG
decks and Death and Taxes. There were fewer Canadian Threshold (aka RUG Delver) decks than Painter’s Servant decks! Even if you add U/W/R, U/R, and RUG
Delver together, they don’t match the metagame percentage of Miracles. Heck, Junk manages to match UWR’s slice of the metagame and Dredge is actually more popular than Owen Turtenwald’s GP-winning archetype.
Naturally we have to assume that the misreporting of BUG Delver decks as obscures the fact that Delver decks as a whole likely made up the largest metagame
slice, but the margin is so small that it very much seems like Europe has dealt with the insect plague that seems to be going on in the U.S. This is
further supported by the fact that there isn’t a single human fly in the whole Top 8, either.
Speaking of the Top 8, the last thing I’d like to look at is conversion rate. Now clearly, with just the Top 8 lists available, nothing we’re going to see
here is of any statistical significance (at least I don’t think so, I’m no statistician to say for sure) but I think it’s still an interesting facet to
consider.
First, blue has been losing out here. Counting Painter, Affinity and Dredge as non-blue decks (because they deviate massively from what we usually call
“the blue decks” in Legacy) and ignoring the “other categories,” fewer than 200 players-a little more than a third-chose to relinquish the power of blue
cards for this tournament. However, the Top 8 is 50% blue decks only, meaning non-blue decks significantly outperformed their metagame slice. Similarly, of
the four blue decks, three lost out in the quarterfinals, once again allowing non-blue decks to outperform blue decks, a trend continued in the finals when
Aggro Loam destroyed Shardless BUG.
Once again, obviously this is no statistically significant argument against blue dominance in Legacy, but in my opinion it is at least strong anecdotal
evidence that it is in fact possible to successfully not play Brainstorm in the format, given enough experience and dedication. In this particular
case, playing Brainstorm actually made you less likely to find yourself in the Top 8-just mull that over if you’re arguing nothing can be done about
Stoneblade, Delver and Brainstorm crushing the SCG Open Circuit repeatedly and that player preference isn’t the driving factor behind Brainstorm’s success.
Speaking of keeping blue under control, there seems to be a good reason Europeans are eschewing Delver of Secrets, too. In spite of a reasonable number of
combined Delver decks-especially assuming a relevant part of “BUG Midrange” is actually Team America-none of them made it to the Top 8.
The same is true for the combo decks, interestingly enough. Out of a combined 18% of the field, the three major combo decks (Show and Tell, Storm, and
Elves) managed to pass on exactly one representative to the elimination rounds. Not a huge deviation (1/8th is about 12%) but a clear sign that combo can
be kept in check as well, Delvers or no Delvers.
So if you consider Legacy stale and Delver and Brainstorm dominant, maybe that isn’t actually true. Maybe someone just needs to put some work in and, you
know, actually try to do something different then just complain and decide “can’t win without Brainstorm, might as well play it.” Maybe, just maybe, a look
to the old continent can give you some inspiration what to do about it. May I suggest Wenzel’s crazy-looking Death and Taxes list as a prime example of
what hasn’t even been tried yet?
If anything, what the BOM results indicate to me is that Miracles is possibly the secret best deck in the format and that innovation and surprise value are
still being rewarded more than just jamming whatever the internet is hyping up lately.
Signing Out
I’d have loved to do a more effective analysis of how the conversion rates relate to the provided metagame breakdown, but sadly the only list I know of
beyond the Rop 8 is the seventeenth-place performance of fellow Berlin Stormer Kai Thiele with ANT (good work man!). Hopefully someone from the BOM
organizers will decide to give us the full Top 32 when they have a little more time after the weekend. In an event with more than 500 players, just the Top
8 really isn’t all that telling, after all.
That’s it from me for today. I hope moving the focus from the US to Europe for once was refreshing to you guys but please-please!-don’t play that Death and
Taxes list anywhere I’m likely to run into you. It seems utterly terrifying to play against with the decks I love. Other than that, feel free to innovate
and adopt as much as you like. Legacy remains fresh because we keep it that way. Remember that!