Hello everyone, and welcome to a special edition of Ben’s Ten! In this week’s column, I’m going to take a look at the top ten cards that have gone up since January 1. Between the spoiling of Dark Ascension, the start of the Modern PTQ season, the beginning of the 2012 StarCityGames.com Open Series, and Grand Prix Orlando, there has been a lot of movement on cards just three short weeks into the year.
I weighted the cards on this list based on three factors:
- How much did the card rise in value? This is just a sheer dollar amount. Combine this with:
- What percentage growth did the card have? And you have two empirical pieces of evidence for the rise in value for a given card. Is it more valuable for a $10 to go to $20 (since it was already a high dollar card to begin with) or for a $0.75 card to go to $2.50 (a higher percentage raise but a lower dollar amount increase)? To answer this question, we have the third factor!’
- Will the card continue to rise in value? This is the tiebreaker! Will the card keep going up in price, or is it stable or, heaven forbid, is it poised to head back down in price?
Let’s take a look at my list!
#10: Shivan Reef
January 1st Price: $3.49
Current Price: $4.99 (+$1.50 / +42%)
Will it continue to rise? Yes
Thoughts: The Splinter Twin deck is the early frontrunner for the “best” deck of the current Modern PTQ season. While it’s too early to tell how the full season will pan out, especially with Dark Ascension shaking things up in just a few weeks, blue/red decks in general have been pretty popular. Past in Flames/Storm decks have also seen play, and Shivan Reef is one of the few painlands seeing play in the Modern format.
The “enemy” painlands are in shorter supply than the Allied ones. The enemy ones were in Apocalypse, 9th, and 10th Edition, while the Allied ones were in Ice Age, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 10th Edition (in addition to being reprinted periodically in box sets). This also contributes to the rise in value of Shivan Reef; if it were, say, Underground River, we may not be seeing a rise in price due to the supply that’s out there.
#9: Isolated Chapel
January 1st Price: $4.99
Current Price: $7.99 (+$3 / +60%)
Will it continue to rise? No
Thoughts: This one jumped the day that Sorin, Lord of Innistrad was spoiled. Will Black/White Tokens be a deck? Likely, in both Standard and Modern. In Modern, Godless Shrine, Marsh Flats, and Fetid Heath all take precedence over Isolated Chapel—so I think this early peak on Isolated Chapel is about where it’ll land, even if B/W is a contender.
#8: Primeval Titan
January 1st Price: $17.99
Current Price: $24.99 (+$7 / +39%)
Will it continue to rise? Yes
Thoughts: There were eight copies of Primeval Titan in the Top 8 of Grand Prix Orlando last weekend, including four copies in the winner’s deck!
Creatures (16)
- 4 Solemn Simulacrum
- 1 Birds of Paradise
- 2 Acidic Slime
- 4 Grave Titan
- 4 Primeval Titan
- 1 Glissa, the Traitor
Lands (25)
Spells (19)
Back before Primeval Titan was reprinted in M12, this jolly green giant was frequently in the $35-$50 range (depending on the Constructed season at the time). If Primeval Titan continues to be played in Standard (hint: it will be), there’s a lot of room it has to go in order to reach its former price range. Because there’s twice the supply out there as when it hit $50, it won’t hit $50 again—but I can see Primeval Titan hitting the $30-$35 range again.
#7: Leyline of the Meek
January 1st Price: $0.99
Current Price: $2.99 (+$2 / +200%)
Will it continue to rise? No
Thoughts: Much like Isolated Chapel, this is another card that is being speculated on right now as a contender for a Black/White Tokens deck in Modern. I personally do not think this tech will end up being played, but I have heard from many who swear by the early token boost this card gives. Even if it does rise, I don’t see it going up to more than $5; but I think right now the rise in price on this is because everyone was bought out at once by speculators, and a new supply (by having cards on a buylist) has not yet emerged. Give it a week or two to stabilize.
#6: Chord of Calling
January 1st Price: $3.99
Current Price: $7.99 (+$4 / +100%)
Will it continue to rise? Yes
Thoughts: Without Green Sun’s Zenith in Modern, Chord of Calling is the next best card for Elf Combo decks to do their thing. This’ll see play during the Modern season and should rise to $10-$12 if Elf decks (or other creature-based combo decks that run green) end up posting decent finishes.
#5: Splinter Twin
January 1st Price: $2.49
Current Price: $4.99 (+$2.50 / +100%)
Will it continue to rise? No
Thoughts: Even if this is the best deck in Modern, this is not a popular deck to play. What I mean by this is that Splinter Twin decks are not fun to play. In a metagame where you could choose either this or a more fun deck to play, and both decks have a roughly equal chance to win, you’re not going with Splinter Twin. For Splinter Twin to go up in price much more, it’d have to get to the level where the card needs to be banned; and if/when that happens, the value on Splinter Twin plummets. Catch-22.
#4: Elspeth, Knight-Errant
January 1st Price: $19.99
Current Price: $29.99 (+$10 / +50%)
Will it continue to rise? Yes
Thoughts: Another card that is being touted for a Black/White Tokens deck; except Elspeth both has a pedigree of a high price, and Elspeth would be a key card in this deck (alongside Sorin). The Duel Deck version of Elspeth will keep the value of Shards Elspeth from going too crazy, but there are enough people who prefer not to play the foil version of a card that the Shards version will hit $40-$50 if Black/White Tokens starts winning Modern PTQs.
#3: Proclamation of Rebirth
January 1st Price: $2.99
Current Price: $9.99 (+$7 / +234%)
Will it continue to rise? No
Thoughts: The top card in the list where the current price is being driven more by short supply than on actual use. The Martyr of Sands / Proclamation of Rebirth deck (with Windbrisk Heights) is taking Magic Online by storm, but it has two big factors working against it:
- The deck hasn’t been winning at a good rate so far, and
- Grafdigger’s Cage hoses the heck out of this deck, and Grafdigger’s Cage is going to see a lot of Modern and Legacy play.
Once people start digging this card out of their bulk rares and selling them to vendors for real money, I think the supply will outstrip the demand by a pretty good pace. I give this until Valentine’s Day to start dropping in price, so I’d advise to cash out now.
#2: Thoughtseize
January 1st Price: $20
Current Price: $40 (+$20 / +100%)
Will it continue to rise? Yes
Thoughts: Thoughtseize has doubled in price since Modern season began, and Thoughtseize is going to continue to rise because both Modern and Legacy players are looking at it to protect Gravecrawler combo decks. Last year, Thoughtseize topped out at $50 when Extended season was going in full swing. I expect it to be there again during this Modern season; it’s one of the cyclical cards that jumps a lot in value during Modern/Extended PTQ season and then hibernates the rest of the year.
I also think that Thoughtseize is a prime candidate to be reprinted in M13, since it’s both a Modern card that needs reprinting to rein in its value, and it’s a simple enough card (both in name and ability) to see printing in a Core Set.
#1: Runechanter’s Pike
January 1st Price: $0.75
Current Price: $2.50 (+$1.75 / +233%)
Will it continue to rise? Yes
Thoughts: There were four copies of Runechanter’s Pike in two decks of the Top 8 decks at Grand Prix Orlando. Delver Blade has been all over the Top 8 of both StarCityGames.com Opens and StarCityGames.com Invitational Qualifier events.
Runechanter’s Pike has been taking the place of the Elemental Swords, which is a huge accomplishment. Given that the Swords were hitting the $12-$40 range in Standard, Runechanter’s Pike has a lot of room to grow. I believe it’s being pretty undervalued right now, and there are plenty of sorceries/instants in the Black/White Token decks that would lead to further play for this piece of Equipment.
$2.50 is nowhere near the ceiling for a piece of equipment that is seeing extensive Standard play; I’d expect this to hit $5 within the next couple of weeks without breaking a sweat, and that’s why I’m picking Runechanter’s Pike as the top card that has risen in value so far this month!
As always, feedback is appreciated and encouraged in the forums! Tune in this Friday for my Financial Value of Dark Ascension article. Until then, have a blast at your local Dark Ascension Prerelease and may you open many a Sorin!
P.S. If you have any general questions, comments about SCG, or would just like to shoot the breeze about Magic, I can always be reached at Ben@StarCityGames.com!