The experts all agree: preordering cards is a bad idea.
It’s a supply and demand thing. During the preorder period, the supply of brand new cards is effectively zero. Making matters worse, demand is high and hype is through the roof. After all, so many cards seem great until you actually play them. Immortal Servitude seemed like a nice little casual spec in theory—I had no idea at the time that they would table in nearly every Gatecrash Draft I played in. Aurelia’s Fury seemed bonkers, but it’s now almost worthless.
People know this, yet they choose to preorder cards anyway. This is mostly due to the Jace Affect. When people realized that they could have preordered Jace, the Mind Sculptors for $25 each, they began overreacting in order to avoid missing the next hot card. This phenomenon existed long before Jace, but it may always remain the best example. And thanks to Boros Reckoner, the idea of searching for a breakout card is fresh in everybody’s minds. We all want to be the one to hit on the next big thing.
In trying to figure out the complete preorder puzzle, I’ve devised another hypothesis to help explain why people go so nutty over buying cards they’ve never gotten to play with. I call it the Spring Set Theory.
Each fall, players get excited about the new block. They preorder dozens of cards in preparation for what always looks to be the most fun Standard format in years. Invariably, however, 95% of these purchases end up being a bust. Even the best cards in the fall set drop in price over the first six months after release, leaving early buyers feeling burned. The winter brings a similar situation—people buy in prior to release and watch the prices fall like a rock.
By spring, however, the bloom is off the rose. Standard has gotten stale and is close to rotation. The block mechanics that seemed revelatory in September have become old hats. Player are gun shy about preordering any more cards, so they finally exercise some much needed restraint and wait until the prices invariably drop.
A funny thing happens, though. Unlike in fall and winter, many of the cards in the spring set rise in price soon after release. Players kick themselves for missing out on the latest tech and are forced to shell out more money later for the cards that matter. Not wanting to miss out on the next round of staples like they did in spring, players preorder cards from the fall set in record numbers, starting the cycle again.
If this is true, it stands to reason that we speculators should pay particularly close attention to Dragon’s Maze. Perhaps we should even preorder a bunch of cards, counting on increased demand from a set that won’t be as widely opened as Return to Ravnica or Gatecrash. In order to see if this theory holds water, I’m going to look back at the last two blocks and analyze price movements from release. Not only can we get to the bottom of my spring set theory, but we can take another look at the practice of preordering as a whole. Are there ever times when it makes sense to go in early? Let’s find out.
Let’s start with Innistrad, the incredibly popular fall set that is almost two years old now:
Innistrad Cards Currently Higher Than Release Day Price
Liliana of the Veil $60 – Release Price $35 – Highest Price $70 – Lowest Price $16
Snapcaster Mage $25 – Release Price $15 (Rose to $30 ASAP) – Highest Price $30 – Lowest Price $15.
Geist of Saint Traft $25 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $15
Isolated Chapel $16 – Release Price $6 – Highest Price $16 – Lowest Price $5
Clifftop Retreat $10 – Release Price $6 – Highest Price $16 – Lowest Price $3
Hinterland Harbor $10 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $12 – Lowest Price $4
Woodland Cemetery $10 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $16 – Lowest Price $4
Olivia Voldaren $10 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $4
Champion of the Parish $6 – Release Price $2.50 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $2.50
Army of the Damned $4 – Release Price $3 – Highest Price $6 – Lowest Price $1.50
Stromkirk Noble $4 – Release Price $2.50 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $2
Innistrad Cards Currently the Same as Release Day Price
Sulfur Falls $7 – Release Price $7 – Highest Price $12 – Lowest Price $4
Innistrad Cards Currently Lower Than Release Day Price
Garruk Relentless $10 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $10
Past in Flames $2.50 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $1.50
Mikaeus, the Lunarch $2 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $2
Adding it all up:
Legitimate preorder breakouts: 2 (Liliana, Champion of the Parish)
Multi-format staples at a favorable price: 2 (Geist, Snapcaster)
Standard staples/casual cards at an excellent price: 1 (Stromkirk Noble)
Standard staples/casual cards at a reasonable discount: 7 (the 5 lands, Olivia, Army of the Damned)
Slight losses: 0
Massive losses: 3 (Garruk, Past in Flames, Mikaeus)
Well, uh, this is awkward. If you invested in a marquee card from Innistrad other than Garruk at release, you’ve been able to play with it for a year and a half without giving up the chance to sell it at a profit. With such a strong fall set in the books, it appears my theory might be dead before we’ve even run the rest of the numbers.
Except, of course, we already knew Innistrad block cards would be hot this month. This happens every year as the cards from the oldest set in Standard become scarce during the spring PTQ season. Innistrad is holding up a little better than average, but its performance isn’t all that unusual.
Should you have preordered a set of Innistrad? Take a look at the lowest price for each of those cards. Only Geist of Saint Traft, Snapcaster Mage, and Champion of the Parish were at their lowest point during the preorder period—the rest were available for a lot less later on. It’s true that you could have preordered these cards and ended up okay, but you also could have made a lot more buying them at rock bottom in December 2011 or so.
It’s also worth noting that there were no true Boros Reckoner style breakouts in Innistrad. Liliana was the best one, but you could have gotten her for less than the preorder price a few months ago. The three top cards have all gone up in value, but none of them started below $15. And the other two $10+ cards in the set—Past in Flames and Garruk Relentless—are only worth a fraction of what they sold for at release.
Let’s extend the analysis to Return to Ravnica and see if there are any more answers there:
Return to Ravnica Cards Currently Higher Than Release Day Price
Sphinx’s Revelation $30 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $30 – Lowest Price $5
Angel of Serenity $20 – Release Price $6 (Rose to $10 ASAP) – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $6
Temple Garden $15 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $18 – Lowest Price $10
Deathrite Shaman $13 – Release Price $4 (Rose to $6 ASAP) – Highest Price $18 – Lowest Price $4
Return to Ravnica Cards Currently the Same as Release Day Price
Overgrown Tomb $10 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $8
Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice $5 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $2.50
Return to Ravnica Cards Currently Lower Than Release Day Price
Jace, Architect of Thought $10 – Release Price $25 – Highest Price $50 – Lowest Price $10
Rakdos’s Return $10 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $5
Abrupt Decay $10 – Release Price $12 (Rose to $15 ASAP) – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $6
Hallowed Fountain $10 – Release Price $12 (Rose to $15 ASAP) – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $10
Blood Crypt $8 – Release Price $10 (Rose to $12 ASAP) – Highest Price $18 – Lowest Price $8
Vraska the Unseen $8 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $5
Steam Vents $7 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $7
Supreme Verdict $5 – Release Price $6 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $4
Armada Wurm $3.50 – Release Price $8 (Rose to $15 ASAP) – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $3
Loxodon Smiter $3.50 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $5 – Lowest Price $3
Chromatic Lantern $3.50 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $5 – Lowest Price $2
Rest in Peace $3 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $4 – Lowest Price $3
Mizzium Mortars $3 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $6 – Lowest Price $2
Lotleth Troll $3 – Release Price $6 (Rose to $10 ASAP) – Highest Price $12 – Lowest Price $2
Dreadbore $3 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $3
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius $3 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $2
Detention Sphere $2.50 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $2
Rakdos, Lord of Riots $2 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $2
Cyclonic Rift $2 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $4 – Lowest Price $1.50
Legitimate preorder breakouts: 3 (Sphinx’s Revelation, Deathrite Shaman, Angel of Serenity)
Multi-format staples at a favorable price: 4 (The four non-Steam Vents shocklands)
Standard staples/casual cards at an excellent price: 0
Standard staples/casual cards at a reasonable discount: 1 (Troistani)
Slight losses: 7 (Abrupt Decay, Loxodon Smiter, Chromatic Lantern, Rest in Peace, Mizzium Mortars, Cyclonic Rift, Supreme Verdict)
Massive losses: 10 (Jace, Vraska, Rakdos’s Return, Steam Vents, Armada Wurm, Lotleth Troll, Dreadbore, Niv-Mizzet, Detention Sphere, Rakdos)
While you may have felt good about preordering all of the good cards from Innistrad, doing the same for Return to Ravnica would have done you as much good as flushing a pile of money down the toilet. Return to Ravnica simply has too many good cards in it, and since the set is still in print, the overall value of the set has to come out to less than the cost of simply opening more booster packs. For now, this is keeping the prices of these cards suppressed, though eventually most of these cards will rise in price along with the value of the out-of-print booster boxes.
I doubt all of the cards on the loser’s list will rise to the winner’s list by next spring, but some of them certainly will. Regardless, this helps illustrate the dangers of preordering from fall sets, especially when you factor in that the highest price most of these cards hit was in the week or so after release before dropping like a stone.
In terms of which cards should have been preordered, I was all over Angel of Serenity from the start and made some good money on that card. Obviously, Sphinx’s Revelation would have been a great one to get right as well, and those that did are probably feeling like geniuses. People who preordered the shocklands probably aren’t disappointed either. Everyone took a loss. Most people took a big one.
Let’s move on to the winter sets, shall we?
Dark Ascension Cards Currently Higher Than Release Day Price
Huntmaster of the Fells $25 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $35 – Lowest Price $15
Falkenrath Aristocrat $20 – Release Price $9 – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $3
Hellrider $8 – Release Price $2 – Highest Price $18 – Lowest Price $1.50
Gravecrawler $7 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $13 – Lowest Price $5
Geralf’s Messenger $4 – Release Price $3 – Highest Price $12 – Lowest Price $3
Predator Ooze $4 – Release Price $2 – Highest Price $5 – Lowest Price $1.50
Dark Ascension Cards Currently the Same as Release Day Price
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $4 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $3
Dark Ascension Cards Currently Lower Than Release Day Price
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $15 – Release Price $60 – Highest Price $60 – Lowest Price $10
Mikaeus, the Unhallowed $6 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $3
Vorapede $3 – Release Price $7.50 – Highest Price $7.50 – Lowest Price $2.50
Havengul Lich $2.50 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $2.50
Vault of the Archangel $2.50 – Release Price $3 – Highest Price $4 – Lowest Price $1
Drogskol Reaver $2 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $1.50
Grafdigger’s Cage $2 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $1.50
Legitimate preorder breakouts: 2 (Falkenrath Aristocrat, Hellrider)
Multi-format staples at a favorable price: 1 (Huntmaster of the Fells)
Standard staples/casual cards at an excellent price: 0
Standard staples/casual cards at a reasonable discount: 3 (Gravecrawler, Geralf’s Messenger, Predator Ooze)
Slight losses: 1 (Vault of the Archangel)
Massive losses: 6 (Sorin, Mikaeus, Vorapede, Havengul Lich, Drogskol Reaver, Grafdigger’s Cage)
The results here are a little more mixed than Innistrad, which is surprising to me. In general, winter sets seem to do a little better over the long term since they’re opened less. Here, though, there was a lot of hype surrounding a couple of mythics (Sorin, Havengul Lich, and Drogskol Reaver) that never did all that much as well as the debacle that was Grafdigger’s Cage. If you only bought Huntmasters or Zombies, you probably did okay, though.
Even though I classify Hellrider and Falkenrath Aristocrat as breakouts here, it’s important to remember that both cards were available for less than their preorder price months after release. Factoring that in, this was an absolutely miserable set for preordering.
Gatecrash Cards Currently Higher Than Release Day Price
Sacred Foundry $16 – Release Price $12.50 – Highest Price $16 – Lowest Price $12.50
Stomping Ground $16 – Release Price $12 – Highest Price $16 – Lowest Price $12
Boros Reckoner $15 – Release Price $3 (Rose to $4 ASAP) – Highest Price $30 – Lowest Price $3
Godless Shrine $15 – Release Price $13.50 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $13.50
Blind Obedience $6 – Release Price $2 (Rose to $5 ASAP) – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $2
Gyre Sage $3 – Release Price $2 – Highest Price $5 – Lowest Price $2
Gatecrash Cards Currently Lower Than Release Day Price
Obzedat, Ghost Council $20 – Release Price $25 – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $18
Domri Rade – $15 – Release Price $25 – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $15
Breeding Pool $12 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $12
Prime Speaker Zegana $10 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $7
Aurelia, the Warleader $8 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $8
Watery Grave $10 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $10
Master Biomancer $8 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $8
Gideon, Champion of Justice $6 – Release Price $25 (Rose to $30 ASAP) – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $6
Aurelia’s Fury $5 – Release Price $30 – Highest Price $35 – Lowest Price $5
Duskmantle Seer $4 – Release Price $15 (Rose to $20 ASAP) – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $4
Lazav, Dimir Mastermind $4 – Release Price $10 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $4
Frontline Medic $4 – Release Price $6 – Highest Price $6 – Lowest Price $4
Legion Loyalist $3 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $6 – Lowest Price $3
Mind Grind $3 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $4 – Lowest Price $3
Firemane Avenger $2 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $4 – Lowest Price $2
Legitimate preorder breakouts: 1 (Boros Reckoner)
Multi-format staples at a favorable price: 4 (the not Watery Grave shocklands)
Standard staples/casual cards at an excellent price: 0
Standard staples/casual cards at a reasonable discount: 2 (Blind Obedience, Gyre Sage)
Slight losses: 5 (Obzedat, Frontline Medic, Legion Loyalist, Mind Grind, Master Biomancer)
Massive losses: 9 (Domri, Breeding Pool, Prime Speaker, Aurelia, Aurelia’s Fury, Gideon, Duskmantle Seer, Lazav, Firemane Avenger)
It’s important to note that every single mythic rare in Gatecrash—every last one—has come down in price since the preorder period. All of them except for Obzedat and Prime Speaker Zegana are at their lowest price ever. Aurelia’s Fury—which started as a $30 card—is down to $5. This is likely going to be the bottom for Gatecrash singles until set rotation, so if you like any of these cards as speculation targets, buy in now.
Again, you probably aren’t kicking yourself for preordering the shocklands, especially when they go up in price again this fall. A few of you were also lucky enough to get in on Reckoner from the start, which you’re probably thrilled about even though it’s dropped from $30 to $15. Otherwise, preordering cards from this set was a miserable experience for you. Even Domri Rade, which sees a good amount of play in Standard, is selling for just $15.
So far, we have a pretty clear pattern in these fall and winter sets. Each set has between zero and three legitimate breakout cards, a couple of Tier 1 playables that have gone up in price, a few obvious staples (usually lands) that have maintained their value, and a whole bunch of hyped-up cards that were far more powerful in theory than practice. Will the spring sets be any different?
Avacyn Restored Cards Currently Higher Than Release Day Price
Restoration Angel $20 – Release Price $4 (Rose to $6 ASAP) – Highest Price $20 – Lowest Price $4
Bonfire of the Damned $18 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $50 – Lowest Price $5
Griselbrand $15 – Release Price $8 (Rose to $10 ASAP) – Highest Price $18 – Lowest Price $6
Craterhoof Behemoth $8 – Release Price $3 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $2
Entreat the Angels $8 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $30 – Lowest Price $5
Silverblade Paladin $6 – Release Price $2.50 – Highest Price $12 – Lowest Price $2.50
Terminus $5 – Release Price $3 (Rose to $4 ASAP) – Highest Price $13 – Lowest Price $3
Champion of Lambholt $3 – Release Price $1.50 – Highest Price $4 – Lowest Price $1
Exquisite Blood $3 – Release Price $1 – Highest Price $4 – Lowest Price $0.75
Wolfir Silverheart $2 – Release Price $1 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $1
Zealous Conscripts $2 – Release Price $1 – Highest Price $5 – Lowest Price $0.75
Avacyn Restored Cards Currently the Same as Release Day Price
Cavern of Souls $25 – Release Price $25 – Highest Price $30 – Lowest Price $20
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight $8 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $5
Avacyn Restored Cards Currently Lower Than Release Day Price
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $12 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $12
Avacyn, Angel of Hope $12 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $10
Sigarda, Host of Herons $8 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $6
Vexing Devil $7 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $5
Temporal Mastery $6 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $6
Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded $2 – Release Price $25 – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $2
Bruna, Light of Alabaster $2 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $1.50
Legitimate preorder breakouts: 9 (Restoration Angel, Bonfire of the Damned, Griselbrand, Craterhoof Behemoth, Entreat the Angels, Silverblade Paladin, Terminus, Wolfir Silverheart, Zealous Conscripts)
Multi-format staples at a favorable price: 1 (Cavern of Souls)
Standard staples/casual cards at an excellent price: 0
Standard staples/casual cards at a reasonable discount: 2 (Champion of Lambholt, Exquisite Blood)
Slight losses: 2 (Avacyn, Vexing Devil)
Massive losses: 5 (Tamiyo, Sigarda, Temporal Mastery, Tibalt, Bruna)
While some of the cards in this set that broke out don’t seem all that impressive now, it’s the historical pricing data that begs a closer look. A bunch of cards on that top list were available for between $1 and $5 and ended up selling at $10+ for a significant amount of time. This set had more breakout cards in it than all the other sets we’ve looked at put together.
Of course, correlation isn’t causation, so we can’t call the Spring Set Theory proven just yet. It is possible—likely, actually—that the number of breakout cards in this set was driven by the fact that miracle and soulbond were massively underrated at first glance and the prices were skewed by this until people actually started to play the cards. Of the nine breakout cards in the set, three are miracles and two have soulbond.
It’s also worth noting that this set did have a few cards that tanked, most notably Temporal Mastery and both planeswalkers. That said, Temporal Mastery was an obvious stay away, and there was plenty of money to be made buying and selling Tamiyo at different points in her run. It’s worth noting yet again that preordering $40 cards is always foolish. Here’s a full list of cards in Standard right now that presold for $30+:
Liliana of the Veil $60 – Release Price $35 – Highest Price $70 – Lowest Price $16
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $15 – Release Price $60 – Highest Price $60 – Lowest Price $10
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $12 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $12
Garruk Relentless $10 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $10
Vraska the Unseen $8 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $5
Temporal Mastery $6 – Release Price $40 – Highest Price $40 – Lowest Price $6
Aurelia’s Fury $5 – Release Price $30 – Highest Price $35 – Lowest Price $5
If you had bought a set of each of these cards at release, you’d have spent $1,260. The current retail value is $484. Without the Lilianas, it would be half that much.
Regardless, our data is still inconclusive. Because Gatecrash isn’t out yet and we need another spring set to look at, I’m going to pull the numbers from New Phyrexia. Instead of using the current post-rotation prices, however, I’m going to be using data from April of last year as the “current” price. The lowest prices will also be for lowest pre-rotation value.
New Phyrexia Cards Higher Than Release Day Price as of April 2012
Sword of War and Peace $40 – Release Price $20 (Rose to $25 ASAP) – Highest Price $50 – Lowest Price $20
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite $30 – Release Price $6 – Highest Price $30 – Lowest Price $5
Phyrexian Metamorph $9 – Release Price $2 (Rose to $4 ASAP) – Highest Price $9 – Lowest Price $2
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur $6 – Release Price $5 – Highest Price $10 – Lowest Price $3
Spellskite $4 – Release Price $2 – Highest Price $12 – Lowest Price $2
New Phyrexia Cards the Same as Release Day Price as of April 2012
Phyrexian Obliterator $25 – Release Price $25 – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $12
Birthing Pod $4 – Release Price $4 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $2
New Phyrexia Cards Lower Than Release Day Price as of April 2012
Karn Liberated $16 – Release Price $50 – Highest Price $50 – Lowest Price $10
Batterskull $15 – Release Price $25 – Highest Price $25 – Lowest Price $12
Surgical Extraction $8 – Release Price $15 – Highest Price $15 – Lowest Price $5
Urabrask the Hidden $3 – Release Price $8 – Highest Price $8 – Lowest Price $3
Puresteel Paladin $2 – Release Price $6 – Highest Price $6 – Lowest Price $1
Legitimate preorder breakouts: 5 (Sword of War and Peace, Elesh Norn, Metamorph, Spellskite, Birthing Pod)
Multi-format staples at a favorable price: 0
Standard staples/casual cards at an excellent price: 0
Standard staples/casual cards at a reasonable discount: 1 (Jin-Gitaxias)
Slight losses: 0
Massive losses: 5 (Karn, Batterskull, Surgical Extraction, Urabrask, Puresteel Paladin)
Again, the spring set here showcases a $40+ card going down in flames while a few two-dollar cards broke out and became multi-format staples. It’s worth noting that the three biggest value losers in this set—Karn, Batterskull, and Surgical Extraction—are all Modern and Legacy staples. You could have done worse than in preordering these cards, especially after Karn’s rebound over the winter. Over all, both this set and Avacyn Restored brought a lot to the Constructed Magic table, and there were more opportunities to make money speculating on these two sets than any of the others.
Unfortunately, even as we reach the end of this article, I cannot state with any certainty that the Spring Set Theory is any closer to being fact. Much like soulbond and miracle, Phyrexian mana was a brand-new out-there ability that was misevaluated at first. In fact, three of the five breakout cards utilize Phyrexian mana.
The last few spring sets have had more breakout cards in them than fall and winter sets, which leads me to believe that there is a large seasonal cycle at work. Instead, this quality is likely due to the fact that the spring sets lately have contained a really powerful new mechanic designed to shake things up near the end of the block. While people spend a lot of time analyzing the new fall mechanics, these spring abilities sometimes go overlooked. In the past, this has led to some sub-$3 rares turning into $10 bills overnight. These are the type of cards that speculators look for, making these sets seem much more robust than they are.
Will Dragon’s Maze follow the trend? If it does, the underrated breakout mechanic will have to be fuse—there are no other choices. It’s too early to say right now, but I’m going to be taking an extra-long look at all of the fuse cards in my set review. People might be underrating them right now, as their true versatility won’t be entirely clear until we get to play with them. If Dragon’s Maze does end up having a couple of breakout cards in it, I bet some of them will have this ability.
This Week’s Trends
– StarCityGames.com raised their buy price on Jace, the Mind Sculptor to $100 and their sale price to $150. This has prompted the rest of the Internet to raise their prices accordingly—you can’t find Jace for under $100 anywhere anymore. Some people think this is insider trading due to a potential unban of the card in Modern, but I would bet my entire collection on this not happening. Wizards of the Coast views Jace as a mistake, and with products like Modern Masters coming out, they’re not going to reintroduce a $100 format staple that is far too powerful and no fun to play against.
Where might Jace end up? I can’t see him climbing much past $150, though he might stay there for a while. Wizards of the Coast would have to reprint the card as a Judge foil or something for the price to come down, and I believe the planeswalkers don’t currently play well with their watermarking/foiling process. They’d have to fix that problem first, meaning I don’t think any promo is forthcoming. Meet the “new” Black Lotus. Heck, a foil Jace costs more than an Ancestral Recall.
– Thanks to the Beck half of Beck // Call, Cloudstone Curio disappeared everywhere last week as people think about building an Elves style combo deck in Modern. This deck is probably going to be real, so I’m not all that interested in selling my Curios at the moment (they’re currently going between $8 and $10). If you see any for less than $5 still, jump on them.
– The whole Internet was bought out of Felidar Umbra last week. Feel free to go on ignoring it/having never even heard of that card.
– Rakdos’s Return is going to be well positioned if the format slows down and Jund gets any new tools in Dragons’ Maze. I like this card as medium-term pick up.
– The reveal of Varolz, the Scar-Striped has caused two cards to jump in price: Lotleth Troll and Death’s Shadow. People won’t be playing much Modern over the next few months, so I don’t see Death’s Shadow jumping higher than the $3 it’s currently selling for unless the deck turns out to be absurd. The Troll is a better buy, but I’m still cautious—I want to see a winning decklist first.
Until next time –
– Chas Andres