Beginning in January 2015, your local store will be able to sanction any format imaginable for FNM. Vintage, Legacy, Commander, Mini-Masters…it’s all on
the table. For some, this is earth-shattering news. One reader sent me an email asking if this was the beginning of the end for Standard, and another asked
me if this meant an incoming price spike for all things Commander. Could the year of the casual player be about to begin?
I doubt it. There are probably a handful of small shops that can get a few dozen people for their Commander tournaments while being unable to drum up any
interest for Standard or Draft, but beyond that I can’t imagine too many places deviating from the two most popular formats in order for something far more
niche. Don’t forget: it was already possible to run a Commander or Legacy event on Friday night, you just couldn’t call it FNM or give away the promo
foils. Any store big enough to have a casual crowd in addition to their competitive players likely ran one of these pods in addition to their sanctioned
event, and any store small enough not to have any competitive players already had the option to run these events instead of buying into the FNM program.
I’m in favor of the changes, and it’ll be nice for some of the cooler stores to have the option of running, say, a Modern or Commander FNM once a month as
a change of pace, but I don’t expect it’ll come to a lot more than that.
That said, it will be nice to see some of the lesser known and non-competitive formats get a little more exposure. If your journey through Magic finance
only extends as far a Standard, Modern, and Legacy, you’re missing out on some pretty important opportunities. Since we’re on the cusp of a new era in
Magic tournament sanctioning, I want to take a multi-week look at the history and potential future of alternative formats. This week will focus entirely on
Commander, by far the biggest dog in the fight, but next time I’m going to briefly cover a bunch of lesser known formats in the hopes of gaining a
financial edge in case any of them experience a major jump in popularity. After all, most of today’s valuable Commander staples sat in bulk bins for years,
just waiting to be picked up.
Commander is especially interesting because it essentially replaced 60-card Constructed as the format of choice among casual players. 60-card casual still
exists on kitchen tables and in dorm rooms, but by the time a player gets to the point where they’re playing down at the local store every week, they’re
either running Commander or a competitive format. How did this come to pass, and what might the future of Commander finance look like? Let’s find out.
A (Personal) History of Commander
I played my first game of Commander in December 2007. My good friend Eric Levine had just begun his successful judging career, and he was there when
Commander (then called Elder Dragon Highlander) was only being played by a few hundred travelling judges. The idea of a format where splashy old cards
could find new life appealed to us both immediately. He sleeved up a Boros deck with Brion Stoutarm as his general, and I sleeved up a hundred Esper cards
and Dromar, the Banisher. Neither of our decks had a plan. Neither had much synergy. I still remember him beating me in that very first game with Heat
Shimmer, a card that I had assumed was unplayable in every non-Limited form of Magic. I was hooked immediately. If Dromar and Heat Shimmer were good cards
in this format, I had to play more.
It seems weird to say just six years later, but news spread much slower in 2008. The smart phone tipping point hadn’t occurred yet, Twitter wasn’t a thing,
and if there was a Reddit, no one knew about it yet. Most people discovered Commander by watching others battle it out at their local store with giant
stacks of wonky cards. By the end of the year, Commander was everywhere. Shards of Alara may not have been designed with Commander in mind, but it was
certainly the first set where a large group of players had a stake in which creatures were and were not legendary. Everyone built around Mayael, the Anima
and Kresh, the Bloodbraided. Competitive Commander leagues sprung up, though many of them were still run with a misguided competitive mentality that lead
to some pretty cutthroat 8-player chaos games. In response, people began to build incredibly cutthroat decks that could either kill everyone or lock down
the game in four or five turns. About a year after Commander first went wide, decks had become more powerful and synergistic but also quite a bit more
homogenous. The decks that were 99 fun old cards plus a weird dragon Commander could no longer compete with even a poorly tuned Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
or Sharuum the Hegemon list. Everyone ran Coalition Relic and Sol Ring. No one ran Heat Shimmer.
Financially, Commander playability did not impact the price of a card all that much for another two years or so. Mana Reflection didn’t break the $1 mark
until September of 2010. It was still just $2 in March of 2011 before climbing to $5 by August. It was in this multi-year lag that I built up the bulk of
my collection through trading, hitting multiple events each weekend in order to grind the trade tables. My philosophy was simple: trade tournament playable
cards to competitive players for their Commander cards at book value and then turn around and trade those Commander staples to causal players at a premium.
This was before the days of smartphone trading, and most casual players didn’t mind losing a little value in order to get the cards they wanted. Going back
over my records, here are a few of the kinds of deal that were my bread and butter back in 2010, complete with historical pricing data:
· Trade #1: My Celestial Colonnade ($4.50) for his Liliana Vess ($4) & Mana Reflection ($1)
· Trade #2: My Mana Reflection ($1) for his Knight Exemplar ($3)
· Trade #3: My Knight Exemplar ($3) for his Goblin Guide ($5)
These trades are kind of funny in retrospect, right? Here’s what the trades look like with today’s values:
· Trade #1: My Celestial Colonnade ($20) for his Liliana Vess ($9) & Mana Reflection ($20)
· Trade #2: My Mana Reflection ($20) for his Knight Exemplar ($3)
· Trade #3: My Knight Exemplar ($3) for his Goblin Guide ($30)
As a brief aside, this sort of historical hilarity is part of why I am so frustrated by present-day trading. These days, 90% of players will refuse to make
a deal unless the prices on their phone are even to within a quarter. That makes it nearly impossible to make some deals, even if they’re good for both
parties over the long haul. Did I win the Mana Reflection/Knight Exemplar trade? Did I lose it? Does it matter? If you’re trading with the future in mind,
trust your instincts, not the prices on your magic telephone.
At any rate, Commander and Commander finance had both matured by the middle of 2011. At this point, Wizards of the Coast had begun designing with Commander
in mind. This meant that many of the fun, old cards that the format was created to exploit were no longer powerful enough to see play. Each new set brought
bigger and crazier creatures and spells, many of which could dominate a game on their own. With combo decks already considered ethically dubious to play in
the format, Commander soon became a battle of disciplined synergy vs. ramp and haymakers. Sheldon Menery and the Commander Rules Committee has since worked
tirelessly to tweak league rules and banned lists in order to encourage fun and creativity, and their influence has been wildly successful in some circles
and irrelevant in others. The idea of a Magic format where ‘win the game as fast as possible’ isn’t the sole object is very tricky to manage, and it’s
still impossible to know what you’re in for when you ask a stranger if they’d like to play Commander with you. In many long-running playgroups, however,
the format is vibrant and chock full of innovation.
Commander finance, on the other hand, had become dull and predictable by this point. All of the older format staples had spiked and plateaued, so
speculators began turning toward newer sets in the hopes of uncovering the next Woodfall Primus or Lightning Greaves. Scars of Mirrodin was the first set
where financial writers really began predicting which $1 rares would become Commander staples a few years down the line. For the most part, we were right.
My ‘low values cards to target‘ list from Scars of Mirrodin included Asceticism
and Genesis Wave, both of which became pricey Commander staples.
These days, the biggest driver of Commander finance is the threat of reprints. With a new Commander product released each year, at least a dozen previously
expensive format staples are massively reprinted every November, which causes the price to tank at least temporarily. And since my local Target still has
four of the five Commander 2013 decks in stock, I doubt the price of any of those cards is going to rise much any time soon. This makes a long-term
investment in any expensive Commander card fairly risky. While I still like speculating on Commander cards that are $2 or less, I’ll almost never go in on
anything higher, even if I think a $5 staple has $10-$15 upside. The risk of reprinting is just too great. The exception? Iconic block cards and recent
mythic rares. Aurelia, the Warleader is a good example of a card unlikely to be reprinted any time soon.
Reprints or not, trading for expensive Commander staples is still sometimes the right call. This is especially true if you can get them at a discount from
a competitive player. While most players are unwilling to trade any of their cards too far below book value these days, moving in on Commander staples can
be a fine way to lock in value when you’re ditching rotating staples or dropping Standard stock. Got a binder full of steadily falling Jeskai Ascendancies
right now? You probably won’t be able to move them for Coursers of Kruphix or Thoughtseizes, but you can probably get someone to trade you a Winding
Canyons or a couple of Mimic Vats at full value.
One Hundred Commander Cards Worth More Than You Think
Presented without individual comment, here are a hundred Commander cards whose value surprised me. This isn’t the definitive list of the most expensive or
the most iconic cards in the format – there are over a thousand I could have chosen, and the list of ‘staples’ is virtually endless and entirely
subjective. This is simply a list of cards that made me do a slight double-take when I saw their current value.
Why spend time looking at random prices? When I was at Grand Prix: Los Angeles last weekend, I spent some time visiting the vendor booths and picking out
cards that had been wildly underpriced and missed by everyone else who was there. Sometimes just the knowledge which cards are randomly valuable can pay
off big.
1. Admonition Angel – $7
2. Asceticism – $7
3. Ashenmoor Liege – $7
4. Aura Shards – $6
5. Austere Command – $7
6. Balefire Liege – $8
7. Basilisk Collar – $8
8. Beacon of Immortality – $6
9. Black Market – $11
10. Boon Reflection – $6
11. Caged Sun – $5
12. Cloud Key – $6
13. Coalition Relic – $6
14. Coat of Arms – $8
15. Contamination – $6
16. Copy Enchantment – $6
17. Creakwood Liege – $13
18. Darien, King of Kjeldor – $6
19. Darksteel Plate – $5
20. Death Baron – $15
21. Deathbringer Liege – $15
22. Debtors’ Knell – $10
23. Defense of the Heart – $13
24. Desertion – $7
25. Doubling Cube – $8
26. Dragon Broodmother – $13
27. Dragonmaster Outcast – $13
28. Eight-and-a-Half-Tails – $8
29. Eladamri’s Call – $9
30. Eldrazi Conscription – $10
31. Elvish Piper – $8
32. Felidar Sovereign – $11
33. Font of Mythos – $7
34. Forced Fruition – $7
35. Gauntlet of Power – $12
36. Genesis – $11
37. Genesis Wave – $6
38. Geth, Lord of the Vault – $5
39. Godsire – $9
40. Grave Pact – $12
41. Greater Good – $9
42. Helix Pinnacle – $7
43. Hellkite Overlord – $8
44. Immaculate Magistrate – $7
45. It That Betrays – $13
46. Jenara, Asura of War – $10
47. Joraga Warcaller – $6
48. Kargan Dragonlord – $7
49. Karmic Justice – $8
50. Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund – $12
51. Khalni Hydra – $15
52. Kor Haven – $8
53. Lighthouse Chronologist – $10
54. Lord of Extinction – $15
55. Lord of the Undead – $9
56. Maelstrom Nexus – $7
57. Magistrate’s Scepter – $5
58. Magma Sliver – $7
59. Mangara of Corondor – $5
60. Marrow-Gnawer – $12
61. Martial Coup – $5
62. Massacre Wurm – $5
63. Minamo, School at Water’s Edge – $9
64. Mirari’s Wake – $7
65. Mirri’s Guile – $16
66. Momir Vig, Simic Visionary – $7
67. Necroskitter – $6
68. Nirkana Revenant – $14
69. Omnath, Locus of Mana – $10
70. Parallel Evolution – $5
71. Phyrexian Altar – $15
72. Phyrexian Arena – $12
73. Phyrexian Tower – $15
74. Planar Portal – $4
75. Platinum Angel – $8
76. Primalcrux – $15
77. Puppeteer Clique – $6
78. Quicksilver Amulet – $7
79. Rhystic Study – $4
80. Rings of Brighthearth – $10
81. Sapphire Medallion – $11
82. Scarecrone – $7
83. Seedborn Muse – $13
84. Sen Triplets – $16
85. Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon – $9
86. Sliver Legion – $50
87. Sliver Overlord – $20
88. Sygg, River Cutthroat – $6
89. Test of Endurance – $6
90. Tidespout Tyrant – $8
91. Timber Protector – $8
92. Time Stretch – $6
93. Transcendent Master – $6
94. Urabrask the Hidden – $6
95. Voidslime – $9
96. Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger – $15
97. Weathered Wayfarer – $7
98. Winding Canyons – $9
99. Worn Powerstone – $4
100. Wound Reflection – $6
The Next Generation of Commander Staples
As you can see from the list above, there are a couple of tipping points when it comes to Commander rares. Cards from the pre-mythic (and pre-Commander)
era tend to be worth the most, followed by cards from Shards of Alara and Zendikar Block. Most casual rares from Scars of Mirrodin on are $5 or less simply
due to a relative lack of scarcity.
I’ll be very curious to see if any of the Scars Block casual rares end up making that next leap toward the $10-$15 range. If they do, I will be much more
likely to buy in bigger on the current crop of Commander format staples. Since overall Magic growth has plateaued a little over the past few years though,
it is also possible that these newer staples will never reach those heights. I’ve got some socked away, but I’m not betting my retirement on it, so to
speak.
Below are a few of the top Commander staples that have been printed within the past few years. Every card on this list feels underpriced to me right now,
and I expect all of them to grow with time. If you like long, low risk speculation targets, here you go:
- Angel of Serenity – $2
- Ashen Rider – $2.50
- Assemble the Legion – $1
- Aurelia, the Warleader – $5
- Baleful Force – $0.50
- Bane of Progress – $2
- Boundless Realms – $1
- Chromatic Lantern – $5
- Crypt Ghast – $1.50
- Cyclonic Rift – $3
- Deadeye Navigator – $0.75
- Diluvian Primordial – $0.50
- Edric, Spymaster of Trest – $6
- Gruul Ragebeast – $0.50
- Hellkite Tyrant – $1.50
- Hushwing Gryff – $3
- Luminate Primordial – $0.50
- Molten Primordial – $0.50
- Prime Speaker Zegana – $2
- Progenitor Mimic – $3
- Prophet of Kruphix – $2.50
- Rune-Scarred Demon – $4
- Scourge of Fleets – $0.50
- Sepulchral Primordial – $0.50
- Sire of Insanity – $0.50
- Sphinx of Uthuun – $0.50
- Ulvenwald Tracker – $0.50
- Xenagos, God of Revels – $5
A More Competitive Commander?
If sanctioned Commander does take off, it is possible that the format will become faster and more cutthroat very quickly. While I can’t find a ton of
research on what might happen to Commander under those restrictions, what information I can find points to (surprise!) U/W as the top color pair in the
format. Grand Arbiter Augustin IV and Geist of Saint Traft are two of the four best generals according to this analysis of competitive Commander from about a year ago, with Zur,
the Enchanter and Edric, Spymaster of Trest finishing out the top tier.
It is also worth noting that most people who play the 1v1 version of Commander play under a separate banned list that was set up by the French Magic
community. In this version of Commander, players start at 30 life instead of 40. Edric and Zur are banned, along with Oloro and Derevi. French rules also
ban both parts of the Crucible of Worlds/Strip Mine lock and most of the broken mana rocks – Sol Ring, Mana Vault, Mana Crypt, Ancient Tomb, Grim Monolith,
etc. With those cards banned, ramp is generally limited to the green decks where, in my opinion, it belongs. You can find the full banned list here. It’s also worth noting that this list is separate from the normal Commander banned list, which is why
you might be surprised to find Griselbrand running around as a legal general.
The Duel Commander metagame actually seems very healthy right now. You can check it out here, and a quick
perusal reveals a meta where aggro, control, and combo exist in roughly equal quantities. Geist of Saint Traft, Marath, Will of the Wild, Maelstrom
Wanderer, and various Elfball strategies are the most common decks, but it appears as though there are dozens of reasonable paths to a Top 8. While Duel
Commander is mostly a European phenomenon right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come to the US within the next year or two. Unfortunately for us
speculators though, there aren’t any real spec opportunities here. Duel Commander decks tend to operate differently than their multiplayer kin, but that
generally means running more Modern and Legacy staples. The more competitive Commander gets, the more it tends to run cards that are already good in other
formats. That doesn’t help all that much.
Ultimately, I would not be shocked if a schism is in store somewhere in Commander’s future. As the competitive players build tighter and tighter decks, the
original soul of the format – getting to play random stuff from the back of your trade binder – gets buried deeper underground. The fact that Wizards of
the Coast supports Commander now is nice, but it has also caused an incredible amount of power creep that bothers many older players. I wouldn’t be
surprised if we eventually end up with two forms of Commander – a multiplayer format with incentive-based scoring categories and a Duel Commander world
using a modified version of the French banned list. Of course, it’s also possible that another new casual format will emerge and change the game all over
again. That’s an exploration for next time though!
This Week’s Trends
– As expected, Khans of Tarkir prices are in freefall. We all knew this was coming – the set is awesome, but it’s being opened in such massive quantities
that the prices are simply unsustainable. As much as I hate selling into a bear market, I strongly recommend moving all of your Khans cards as soon as
possible. I do love many of these cards long-term – Dig Through Time, the fetchlands, Siege Rhino, and more – but a price floor is coming, and it won’t be
pretty. Sell now and buy back in around Christmas.
– As Abzan continues to cement itself as the most popular deck in the format, Thoughtseize has started to quietly rise in price again. While I had
previously argued that Thoughtseize would likely drop again before set rotation, I’m reevaluating that call based on a half-dozen conversations with other
folks in the finance community along with its current growth. There’s a very real chance that Thoughtseize is only going up from here. If you don’t have
your set, get it now.
– Speaking of Abzan, it had a nice showing at Grand Prix Los Angeles, though it didn’t take down the tournament. That honor belonged to Daniel Scheid’s G/R
Monsters build. Check it out:
Creatures (25)
- 1 Hornet Queen
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 3 Polukranos, World Eater
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 4 Stormbreath Dragon
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 2 Genesis Hydra
- 2 Rattleclaw Mystic
- 1 Ashcloud Phoenix
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (23)
Spells (7)
This deck’s success shouldn’t come as a surprise. This was the type of deck making the most waves before the Pro Tour, so it should be no shock that it’s
still quite good. The only card in here that jumps out at me as a decent spec is Crater’s Claws – even though the majority of Khans cards will be dropping
over the next few weeks, I still believe that this is a $3-$4 card long term.
– I’d also like to talk for a moment about Brad Nelson’s awesome Mardu Midrange deck:
Creatures (15)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (25)
Spells (16)
I still believe that Butcher of the Horde is right there with Siege Rhino and Mantis Rider as a pillar of the format, it just needed to find the right
shell. This could be it. If the deck had broken out at the Pro Tour instead of a GP, Butcher would have shot up to $10 before falling back down, but
because it didn’t, the card is just $3. Keep an eye out – if Butcher takes down an event over the next few weeks, it’s a buy even in this economy. If
you’re a believer in Mardu though, I’d pick up Chained to the Rocks. It’s majorly undervalued at just a buck.
– If you live on the west coast and play Magic, you’ve undoubtedly seen the hype for ‘Grand Prix TBD’ on Memorial Day weekend of 2015. While it’s
impossible to say whether or not this will be Grand Prix Vegas, Part II with Modern Masters II, all signs are pointing in that direction. Channel Fireball
and Cascade Games are running the event, which means that it will almost assuredly be on the west coast somewhere. And I’ve had multiple Channel Fireball
folks tell me that the GP will be associated with ‘a very exciting set release.’ Sound like Modern Masters to me!
Because of that, it may be time to sell your Modern Masters boxes. The price will very likely come down as soon as Modern Masters II is formally released,
though it’s equally possible that the price will surge again when the set is spoiled. If MMII doesn’t have some of the heavy hitters at mythic rare or if
the Limited format isn’t as great, demand for the first run sealed boxes could be quite massive. It really just depends how similar the sets end up being.
– As always, Travis Woo is doing crazy things in Modern and the prices are responding. His latest plan involves Narset, Enlightened Master and Goryo’s
Vengeance alongside multiple ways to keep on attacking – Fury of the Horde, Relentless Assault, and Waves of Aggression. Waves of Aggression has already
spiked a little and should be taken out of your bulk and sold immediately. The others are still lagging. While this deck looks fun, I can’t imagine it will
lead to all that much. Narset’s value is going to be exclusively based on Standard playability, so I can’t recommend a buy here. Goryo’s Vengeance has been
high on my radar for months, and I like the card a lot as a spec…just not in this particular deck. If you want to buy in though, feel free – it is oozing
with unabused potential right now.