In the world of baseball analytics, a player is said to ‘own’ a skill once they’ve demonstrated proficiency of it.
For example, imagine a baseball player who steals 30 bases and hits 12 home runs in 2013. In 2014, the same guy steals just 8 bases but hits 31 home runs.
Without knowing more about the guy in question, there could be a lot of reasons for this disparity in production. The player could have been fighting a
hamstring injury all last year, he might have gained weight and strength, his coach might have de-emphasized the running game, he might have changed his
swing on his own, or perhaps he just got really lucky with a bunch of balls barely clearing the fence for cheap homers in 2014. He might never steal 30
bases again and he might never hit 30 home runs again, and we can’t say for sure without knowing more.
What we do know, however, is that this is a player who is capable of hitting 30 home runs and stealing 30 bases. He owns both of those skills, and that’s
true even if they don’t pan out ever again. When it comes to projecting future outcomes for this player, most analysts will keep the ownership of those
skills in mind. A player who has proven they can hit 30 home runs in the majors is often a safer and more valuable asset than a prospect who is projected
to have 30 HR power but has never proven it. In baseball, owning a skill is a very valuable thing.
I look at new Magic cards in much the same way. When I do my set review, every card is an unproven rookie. Some show more promise than others, but
everything is still comfortably in the realm of theoretical projection. Every card is a potential bust until proven otherwise.
That all changes after the first weekend of actual tournament results. Regardless of where the format goes from here, cards like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
and Tasigur, the Golden Fang have proven themselves capable of winning a StarCityGames Standard Open. That doesn’t mean they’ll keep winning every week, of
course, but it does mean that they’ve demonstrated that skill enough to say that they own it.
This type of thinking is especially important whenever a set makes a broad impact right away. Most of the time, small sets only contribute a tiny handful
of meaningful cards to Standard’s best decks. I’ve probably written more words about Voice of Resurgence than the rest of Dragon’s Maze combined, and Born
of the Gods was a bust outside of Brimaz, Kiora, and Courser of Kruphix.
Fate Reforged is different. The set didn’t turn Standard on its head, but if the week one results hold up, we’re looking at one of the deepest and most
powerful small sets in recent memory. There’s a lot to unpack here, so I’d like to start by going through the winning decks from last weekend and focus on
the Fate Reforged cards that made it to the top tables of the Washington DC Standard Open. After that, we’ll take a look at the spells from Fate Reforged
that have been MIA so far. We’ll wrap up the article by taking a quick look at older cards whose values are being affected by the shifting metagame.
Overall, the important thing to remember is that proven cards always make the safest investments. It’s possible that Ugin, the Sprit Dragon will never Top
8 another event and Ojutai, Soul of Winter will find a winning deck and become the most impactful card in Fate Reforged, but it isn’t particularly likely.
When making trades early in the life of a set, focus on the cards that are beginning to show that they own a skill. That’s where the best odds of hitting
on a spec always lie.
Fate Reforged Cards That Showed Up To Play
Creatures (4)
Planeswalkers (7)
- 2 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
- 2 Kiora, the Crashing Wave
- 1 Garruk, Apex Predator
- 2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
Lands (25)
Spells (24)
Crux of Fate – $7 (Up from $2)
U/B Control was already one of the best decks in the format, but Perilous Vault was always something of a weak point in that deck’s approach. It’s
necessary, but it’s also slow, cumbersome, vulnerable to removal, and it kills your own planeswalkers. With Crux of Fate, control decks like this one can
drop a ‘walker or two and then wrath the board, allowing their pilot to gain crucial tempo and card advantage. Even though Crux of Fate is just a two-of
here, it’s probably the most important card in the deck. As you’ll see below, it also plays a crucial part in the midgame strategy for Frontier Siege-based
ramp strategies. $7 might be a little optimistic long term, especially if the next set brings some playable dragons, but there’s no reason Crux can’t hold
at $4-$5 minimum while acting as a solid role-player going forward.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon – $35 (Up from $30)
Ugin is another key part of the board control plan here, acting as a resilient source of mass removal while sticking around to wreak havoc for the long
haul. My biggest worry about Ugin in my set review was that eight mana would just be too much for a Standard environment dominated by Goblin Rabblemasters
and Siege Rhinos. That doesn’t seem to be the case. $35 is high for any Standard mythic, especially one that isn’t ever going to be played as a four-of, so
I do think the price will drop off toward a more reasonable $25-$30. Excitement and set marketing should keep the price in that rage though, especially now
that we know that this card can help take down a major Standard event. If you need these now, feel free to grab them at retail.
Tasigur, the Golden Fang – $10 (Up from $3)
Tasigur is fantastic and versatile, but $10 is probably not a sustainable price for this guy. I understand why the hype around Tasigur caused such a large
bubble last weekend-he was very impressive on camera in several different decks, after all, and many of the pros gushed about him being one of the most
powerful cards in the set. That will probably prove itself true, and I expect we haven’t even seen the best of Tasigur, but unlike Courser of Kruphix, this
guy probably isn’t a four-of in the optimal Tasigur deck. We’re going to see a lot more of the Golden Fang going forward, but I still expect a price
correction of 30-40%. If you can trade your copies of Tasigur at $10 retail this week, do it. He should drop toward $6-$8.
Silumgar, the Drifting Death – $1.50 (Same as pre-order price)
Strictly sideboard cards don’t have much upside, but Silumgar, the Drifting Death has a ton of casual appeal and is solid in multiple matchups. His price
isn’t going any lower than $1.50, so buying in now is totally fine.
Creatures (12)
Lands (23)
Spells (25)
Monastery Mentor – $27.49 (Down from $30)
Monastery Mentor was the most hyped card in Fate Reforged, so it’s no surprise to see it show up as a four-of in the second place deck last weekend. My
biggest fear about this card was that a glut of amazing three-drops would overshadow it, but in this build at least it does good work alongside the equally
powerful Goblin Rabblemaster. I’d like to see Monastery Mentor show up in a few different brews (or see this version of Boros Aggro continue to gain
ground) before I can call Monastery Mentor a good buy at $27.49, but the chances of this card busting out entirely have just gone down considerably.
Because Monastery Mentor is a four-of in most decks that want it, though there’s a chance of this being a $30-$40 mythic come spring. I’m waiting to see
how Monastery Mentor does in the next week or two, but I understand anyone who wants to buy in now based on this deck’s finish as well as the card’s
potential in Eternal formats.
Soulfire Grand Master – $19.59 (Down from $20)
Soulfire Grand Master was a maindeck one-of, so we need a little more information before determining whether or not the card is at all good in Standard. I
haven’t spoken to Danny Goldstein, but it’s certainly possible that he either didn’t have the fourth Seeker of the Way before the event began or he just
wanted to test Soulfire Grand Master without having to rely on more than one copy. It did seem underpowered on camera all day in DC though. The price is
holding pretty firm, and I doubt we’ll see any movement until more data is collected. This is a push for now, but I’m not a believer.
Outpost Siege – $0.49 (Same as pre-order price)
Outpost Siege is so weirdly similar to Chandra, Pyromaster that I figured it wouldn’t see much play in Standard. The interaction with Monastery Mentor and
Goblin Rabblemaster is incredible though, and it really does give this deck a ton of reach. The financial upside is low because Outpost Siege only really
works with those other two cards, but that should be enough to pull it out of bulk range. Grab a few copies this week.
Valorous Stance – $1.35
I don’t usually talk about uncommons, but Valorous Stance was all over the place last weekend, and I expect it to be as big a part of the format going
forward as Stoke the Flames. It won’t hit $5 because it’s not from an under-opened base set, but I could easily see it trading briskly at $2-$3. Getting a
set now for $1.35 a copy is fine.
Creatures (23)
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 3 Courser of Kruphix
- 3 Anafenza, the Foremost
- 3 Wingmate Roc
- 4 Rakshasa Deathdealer
- 4 Siege Rhino
- 2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (25)
Spells (11)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang also shows up here, this time as a maindeck two-of. I love the card’s potential, but he shouldn’t be worth more than a powerhouse
fall mythic like Wingmate Roc, which is a three-of here.
Creatures (12)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (25)
Spells (20)
Here’s another appearance for Ugin, Tasigur, and Crux of Fate in a Sultai shell. While the first place deck was a planeswalker control strategy, this one
is more of a ramp deck with several control elements.
Frontier Siege – $3.15 (Up from $2)
If you asked me to rank the sieges for Constructed play before last weekend, I wouldn’t have put either the green or red variant at the top. So much for my
siege evaluation skills, I guess. While the ‘dragons’ mode on this card is pretty spicy with Hornet Queen, you’re really playing this for the extra four
mana each turn split between your main phases. In my set review, I downplayed this in Standard because I figured players would mostly be trying to ramp
into one big spell per turn, and the lack of card advantage would catch up to you if you were playing a four-mana ramp spell in a midrange deck.
Ali Aintrazi got around this problem by dropping Frontier Siege in a Sultai shell, giving him access to both Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise as well
as a bunch of varied top-end threats. This deck actually seems pretty loose to me ( Brian Kibler more or less agrees), which makes me think
that we haven’t seen the best Frontier Siege can do yet. There’s a lot of upside here, and we might be looking at a $5+ card before long. I’m trading for
these at $3.
Creatures (25)
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 2 Boon Satyr
- 4 Soldier of the Pantheon
- 3 Anafenza, the Foremost
- 4 Rakshasa Deathdealer
- 4 Siege Rhino
- 4 Warden of the First Tree
Lands (24)
Spells (11)
Sideboard
Warden of the First Tree – $7.49 (Down from $10)
Warden of the First Tree is no Figure of Destiny-and it’s pretty darned awkward when facing down Courser of Kruphix-but it does a decent job of coming down
early and doing a little of everything while dodging Glare of Heresy and threatening to go big in the lategame. I was down on this guy in my set review,
but after last week’s results I’m starting to believe that Warden will have a decent place in the format. At just $7.50, there’s some upside here. Warden
could double in price as soon as this week if it ends up as a four-of in one of the top two or three decks. Feel free to buy in at retail if you’re an
Abzan Aggro or Midrange player.
Creatures (16)
- 2 Stormbreath Dragon
- 4 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 4 Mantis Rider
- 4 Seeker of the Way
- 2 Shaman of the Great Hunt
Lands (25)
Spells (20)
Shaman of the Great Hunt – $8.25 (Up from $8)
I don’t get why Warden of the First Tree went down in price, while Shaman of the Great Hunt gained value. One of these cards proved itself a lot more than
the other last weekend, and it’s not the one that went up in price.
Regardless, this Jeskai Aggro list is super interesting, and it’s great to see how much variety there is in a strategy like this compared to, say, the R/W
Aggro list with Monastery Mentor. Shaman of the Great Hunt plays really well into what this deck wants to do, swinging with haste while occasionally
drawing a couple of extra cards to refuel for the endgame. I like decks that can pull double duty, and this build is certainly optimized to take advantage
of the Shaman’s versatility. Demand is probably narrow enough that Shaman will lose value though, and I’d expect the price to be closer to $5 than $10
before long unless this specific build becomes a dominant strategy. I’m selling at current retail, though not desperately.
Creatures (23)
- 4 Hornet Queen
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 4 Eidolon of Blossoms
- 3 Doomwake Giant
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (23)
Spells (12)
Going beyond the Top 8, we find the Doomwake Giant/Eidolon of Blossoms deck also taking advantage of both Ugin and Frontier Siege. I’m still gobsmacked
that both constellation cards are below $2 retail considering how well they’ve done. I guess very few FNM grinders and casual mages want to build this deck
for some reason. At any rate, here’s another reason why Ugin should hold value and Frontier Siege should be a nice gainer.
Creatures (18)
- 3 Akroan Hoplite
- 4 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 2 Butcher of the Horde
- 2 Seeker of the Way
- 4 Monastery Swiftspear
- 3 Brutal Hordechief
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (23)
Spells (18)
Brutal Hordechief – $8.29 (Down from $10)
It’s too early to say whether Brutal Hordechief will be good enough to push this deck over the top. Mardu Aggro has been solidly tier two since the release
of Khans, and last weekend didn’t do anything to change that. Much like Shaman of the Great Hunt, it’s doubtful this will see enough play to sustain a
price greater than $5-$6 unless Mardu takes off in a big way.
Creatures (34)
- 1 Hornet Queen
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 2 Polukranos, World Eater
- 1 Nylea, God of the Hunt
- 2 Sylvan Caryatid
- 2 Arbor Colossus
- 2 Boon Satyr
- 4 Voyaging Satyr
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 4 Eidolon of Blossoms
- 4 Genesis Hydra
- 4 Temur Sabertooth
Lands (23)
Spells (3)
If you haven’t seen how this combo deck works yet, it uses Temur Sabertooth to bounce either Voyaging Satyr (with a Nykthos in play) or Karametra’s
Acolyte. You also need Temur Ascendancy to give them haste. If you have a way to tap for seven mana, you can loop these to generate infinite mana. At that
point, an infinitely big Genesis Hydra goes and gets Nylea, God of the Hunt, which gives the Hydra trample. There are also a bunch of other cute
interactions with Singing Bell Strike (on your own mana producer), Polukranos, Eidolon of Blossoms, and other big green things.
This is a janky, fragile, and non-interactive deck, but it’s also very cool. The only essential Fate Reforged card here is Temur Sabertooth, an uncommon
that is financially irrelevant, but I wanted to bring it up here because it will probably become a tier 2-3 part of the metagame that is worth knowing
about on the trade tables.
Creatures (15)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (25)
Spells (17)
Whisperwood Elemental – $9.49 (Up from $6)
I was very high on Whisperwood Elemental in my set review, and enough people agreed with me to bump the price up to $10. In order for it to maintain that
price tag though, it’ll either have to become an Abzan Midrange staple or someone will have to actually build around it. Either is possible, though the
card didn’t really do much last weekend – one 12th place-finish isn’t the coming out party I had hoped for. The price hasn’t come down at all though, so
most people seem to be waiting to see what happens next with Whisperwood Elemental. I’m holding for now, though if it goes another weekend without a Top 8,
I’ll be selling fast.
Fate Reforged Cards That Were Conspicuously Absent
Flamewake Phoenix – $4.09 (Down from $5)
Flamewake Phoenix showed up in a few Mardu Midrange decks that sputtered out in the 30-40th place range. If there’s a good home for this card, we don’t
know what it is yet.
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death – $2 (Down from $3)
If Alesha pans out, someone is going to have to build around her in a big way. As is, the more obvious three-drops have been successful in crowding her out
of the metagame entirely.
Mardu Strike Leader – $1.85 (Down from $2)
B/W Warriors was MIA last weekend and has yet to cross into Standard at all. Keep an eye on Mardu Strike Leader, because the card is key to that strategy.
Torrent Elemental – $4.85 (Up from $2)
Most of the price increase here happened before the first weekend of results. I’m not convinced that Torrent Elemental is unplayable in the new Standard as
much as Sultai Reanimator seems to have lost ground thanks to Fate Reforged. A few Sidisi decks did do decently well while featuring Torrent Elemental
(check out their lists here and here), but it’ll take more than one-ofs and two-ofs to drive this
price anyway. My expectation is that Torrent Elemental will drop back toward $3 before long.
Temporal Trespass – $3.69 (Down from $8)
As expected, Temporal Trespass was nowhere to be seen last weekend and is heading toward bulk mythic territory. (Author’s Note: this sentence is going to
look pretty embarrassing when Temporal Trespass Top 8s the Legacy Open this weekend.)
Soulflayer – $1.85 (Down from $3)
Someone might build a deck around Soulflayer at some point soon, but for now it seems to be a strictly worse Tasigur, the Golden Fang. It’s heading toward
bulk rare territory fast. Sell if you can.
And that’s about it, which means that over 2/3rd of the hyped cards in Fate Reforged ended up at or near the top tables last weekend. If that number ends
up holding or increasing over the next few months, we would be looking at one of the most successful small sets in the history of Magic.
Older Cards With Shifting Values
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver – $10.99 –
Ashiok has been on the rise all week, and it’s an important card in the U/B-based control strategies. It benefits a ton from Crux of Fate and might hit
$15-$17 if the deck emerges as a weekly top table contender.
Anafenza, the Foremost – $6.65
– Anafenza has been on the rise since late December, and she continues to see more and more play in different Abzan brews. She could hit $10 by next month
if this trend continues.
Hornet Queen – $5.49
– Hornet Queen is an integral part of the green-based ramp and control decks. It’s also from M15. That means we could see a spike to $10 at any point.
Siege Rhino – $5.85
– Siege Rhino is still the most important card in the entire format, so its price should keep rising. Fate Reforged did nothing to stop this beast.
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant – $6.75
– Whip strategies might come back strong, but they weren’t very effective last week. Sidisi’s brief reign might be at an end.
Temur Ascendancy – $0.99
– This card could hit $2-$3 if the deck is real. If not, it should still trade easily at a buck to people looking to brew with it. Grab ’em out of your
bulk.
This Week’s Trends
– Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, Sliver Hivelord, and Waste Not continue to rise. Grab these M15 goodies cheap while you can. The casual gods from Journey into
Nyx and Born of the Gods have also bottomed out and started to rise in price a little – they’re fantastic long-term casual holds. Also up recently:
Mycosynth Lattice, Rings of Brighthearth, Doubling Season, and Scarecrone. Did you know that all four of those cards are worth more than $15 apiece?
– Over in Modern, Geist of Saint Traft, Vengevine, Scapeshift, and Liliana of the Veil are all still on the move in reaction to the B&R list
announcement. I’m staying away until we start to see some results.
– I don’t know how reliable this is because I can’t find any data, but there’s a rumor going around that people are brewing with Eureka and Ugin in Legacy.
Eureka is a reserved list powerhouse and Cube staple from Legends, so its upside is basically infinite-we’re talking The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
prices. I don’t want to cause a run on Eurekas or anything, but I’ve bought a few simply because the downside is almost nothing, and the upside is huge. If
you’ve got an extra $100 lying around, you could do worse.
– Ezuri, Renegade Leader foils were all bought out a few days ago. This card doesn’t see any Eternal play, so it’s probably a reaction to the Tiny Leaders
format, which is catching fire. For now though, you might want to do a search for interesting legendary creatures that cost three mana or less and think
about buying a copy or two.