After a long hiatus, I bring you the data I know you all crave in your hearts.
2004-06-06 New Jersey (40 players)
1. 4C Control
2. TriniStax
3. GAT
4. Workshop Slavery
5. EBA
6. GAT
7. GAT
8. Food Chain Goblins
2004-06-06 Dulmen (79 players)
1. 4C Control
2. Hulk Smash
3. Affinity
4. Dragon
5. 4C Control
6. Belcher
7. 4C Control
8. Affinity
2004-06-13 Castricum (62 players)
1. Gobvantage
2. 4C Control
3. Stacker
4. Food Chain Goblins
5. Dragon
6. Vengeur Masque
7. 4C Control
8. Hulk Smash
2004-06-13 Minneapolis (68 players)
1. 4C Control
2. Belcher
3. 7/10 Split aka Big Fat Deck
4. 4C Control
5. Affinity Stacker
6. Workshop Slavery
7. U/B TPS
8. 4C Control
2004-06-19 Kalamazoo (54 players)
1. Trinistax
2. 4C Control
3. Dragon
4. Food Chain Goblins
5. TnT
6. Two-land Belcher
7. Hulk Smash
8. Control Slaver
2004-06-20 Turin (66 players)
1. 4C Control
2. Dragon
3. Affinity
4. R/G Madness
5. TPS
6. R/U/G Control Madness
7. 4C Hulk Smash
8. 4C Hulk Smash
2004-06-27 Bologna (54 players)
1. TPS
2. Dragon
3. MonoBrown Stacker
4. Hulk Smash
5. U/B TPS
6. MonoBrown Stacker
7. U/G/B Control Madness
8. U/B TPS
Seven tournaments totaled (40,54,54,62,66,68,79 = 423 players, 60.4 average players)
11 4C Control (1,1,1,1,2,2,4,5,7,7,8)
6 Hulk Smash (2,4,7,7,8,8)
5 Dragon (2,2,3,4,5)
5 TPS (1,3,5,5,8)
4 Food Chain Goblins / Gobvantage (1,4,4,8)
4 Stacker (3,3,5,6)
3 Belcher (2,6,6)
3 Affinity (3,3,8)
3 GAT (3,6,7)
3 Madness (4,6,7)
2 Trinistax (1,2)
2 Workshop Slavery (4,6)
1 7/10 Split (3)
1 EBA (5)
1 TnT (5)
1 Vengeur Masque (6)
1 Control Slaver (8)
(1) Tightening
Six-Month Metagame Occurrence Percentages
MEAN% – Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May., Jun.
12.7% – 12.5, 10.0, _9.7, _9.7, 14.6, 19.6 4C Control
10.3% – _7.5, 12.5, 12.5, _8.5, 10.4, 10.7 Hulk Smash
_6.5% – 12.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3, _5.4 Madness
_6.2% – _2.5, _5.0, _4.2, _8.5, _8.3, _8.9 Storm Combo
_5.5% – _2.5, _5.0, _5.6, _6.9, _4.2, _8.9 Dragon
_5.1% – _5.0, _5.0, _5.6, _1.4, _6.3, _7.2 FCG / Gobvantage
_4.7% – _5.0, _5.0, _2.8, _5.6, _4.2, _1.8 TnT
_4.6% – _7.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _2.1, _3.6 Stax
_4.3% – _7.5, _5.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1, _7.2 Stacker
_4.1% – _0.0, 12.5, _5.6, _4.2, _2.1, _0.0 Rector
_3.4% – _2.5, _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _6.3, _5.4 GAT
_3.4% – _2.5, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3, _1.8 Control Slavery
_3.1% – _5.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _4.2, _0.0 Landstill
_2.9% – _2.5, _0.0, _5.6, _2.8, _6.3, _0.0 Fish
_2.6% – _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _5.6, _2.1, _3.6 Workshop Slavery
_2.0% – _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1, _5.4 Belcher
_1.9% – _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _2.8, _2.1, _0.0 MUD / wMUD
_1.9% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _0.0, _1.8 Vengeur Masque
_1.7% – _5.0, _2.5, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0 Goblin Sligh
_1.6% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _5.4 Affinity
_1.6% – _2.5, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0 R/G Beatz
_1.4% – _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _2.1, _0.0 Oshawa Stompy
_1.0% – _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _1.8 EBA
_0.9% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 SuperGro
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0 Sligh
_0.6% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4, _2.1, _0.0 Monoblue
_0.9% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 MadDragon
_0.9% – _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0 U/rPhid
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0 Modular
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.1, _1.8 7/10 Split
No decks fell into the”0.5% abyss” this month, and 7/10’s second appearance put it on the chart. The most significant change by far is the order of the decks. Decks like FCG, Belcher, Stax, GAT, Affinity and 4C Control leapt upwards in percent appearances, while SuperGro, MonoBlue, and Goblin Sligh moved down, as befits decks that are almost strictly worse than their newer counterparts.
Data Period – # unique archetypes (per T8) [number of archetypes in each Top 8] = [average]
2003-09&10 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 6,8,5,7,8 = 6.8
—–Mirrodin legal
2003-11&12 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 4,7,5,6,8 = 6.0
—–Restriction: Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Lion’s Eye Diamond
2004-Jan – 26 archetypes (4.4 / T8) 6,8,7,7,7 = 7.0
2004-Feb – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,7,7,7,7 = 6.8
—–Darksteel legal
2004-Mar – 34 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,8,8,7,7,6,7,6,7 = 6.9
2004-Apr – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0
2004-May – 21 archetypes (3.5 / T8) 7,6,6,5,7,7 = 6.3
2004-Jun – 18 archetypes (2.6 / T8) 6,5,7,6,8,6,5 = 6.1
—–Fifth Dawn legal
354 cardnames in Q4 2003 (10)
262 cardnames in January (5)
267 cardnames in February (5)
372 cardnames in March (9)
335 cardnames in April (9)
271 cardnames in May (6)
276 cardnames in June (7)
The ever-decreasing number of winning archetypes, along with the distinct trend away from eight-archetype Top 8s, should make clear that Steve Menendian’s wet dream of a focused Type One isn’t far away. Last month, I showed how each tournament after the fifth should be expected to add 22 cardnames to the month’s total. Since May was already below average cardnames for its number of tournaments, June’s count, merely five higher, also says good things about the format’s winnowing of outdated decks.
(2) 4C Control and Hulk Smash: What’s Really Going On, Here?
Why is 4C Control so dramatically outperforming the much-vaunted Psychatog? Especially since most of the format’s braintrust believes that 4CC loses when they go head-to-head, the dramatic and climbing success of Exalted Angel/Skeletal Scrying decks is unusual. There’s always the stock Ben Kowal answer – namely that Tog is a horrible turn 4 combo deck which should properly lose to everything – but I get the feeling that the answer lies somewhere between JP’s”Tog is awesome” and Kowal’s theory.
The first thing to point out is popularity of the decks. Ideally this isn’t a factor, but in Type One more than any other format, the players have a”talent bias” to pick controlling decks. Given the choice between two good decks, they’ll take the more reactive (or interactive, if you want to think of it that way) option. Everyone knows Psychatog mirror matches are boring and take forever, so why not just play the one that’s more fun?
The other thing is that 4CC is better against both Fish and FCG than Hulk is. The popularity of both of these decks to budget players (and five-proxy metagames) means that Tog players are more likely to fall victim to these, even if it has a better performance against some other top performers. The 4CC player has the”no bad matchups” advantage, while Tog has been accumulating a slate of them since March. (Remember when everyone thought that Mindslaver would be the death of Tog? Spiketail Hatchling and Goblin Warchief are apparently much more lethal.)
Exalted Angel may not kill all at once, but while she’s working, she has a couple of benefits over Psychatog. First, dealing with creatures doesn’t delay the kill, because 4CC is more than happy to sit on”Spirit Link” life. Tog instead has to rush to win under these conditions, because bothering to block will add turns to the opponent’s lifespan. There is also the matter of Force of Will, which is directly at odds with Psychatog’s need to feed. Every use of Force sets Tog back significantly, while 4CC doesn’t really mind.
(3) Sundering Titan Oddities
When I saw that there were thirteen Titans in my final count for June, I had to check my data, because there was only one 7/10 deck and one TnT – where were all those Titans coming from? One of the big culprits was Kalamazoo’s first big T1 event. Featured within were four Titans in the winning Trinistax list (two maindeck, two sideboard), and two more in a much weirder Worldgorger Dragon sideboard.
I haven’t heard any discussion at all about these uses, so I thought I’d highlight them for my”legions” of”fans”. (I’ll have to ask Knutter Butter how many people read these things some time.) [And I’ll have to refuse Pippy Longstocking the info for top secret reasons. – Knut] The Stax use makes sense as opposed to Karn, Silver Golem, because it’s still mana denial and ends the game even faster. When pressed, the deck can almost behave like 7/10, which is a pretty strong transformation to have on hand. Titan as a replacement for Verdant Force (there’s still Jolly Green Giant in the board, in case you didn’t look) is unusual but not totally out of nowhere. Given the import of 4CC matchups recently (and Dragon’s trouble with that deck), Titans are one answer that probably hasn’t been getting enough thought.
(4) Pip’s Watch List
In terms of appearances per Top 8:
Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May., Jun.
_2.8, _3.4, _3.1, _3.3, _4.0, _4.0 – 28 Yawgmoth’s Will
10.4, _8.5, 10.2, _9.3, 13.8, 10.3 – 72 Mana Drain
_5.2, _7.4, _6.3, _6.3, _8.5, _8.9 – 62 Cunning Wish
_7.8, _6.4, _4.7, _8.9, _4.2, _6.0 – 42 Mishra’s Workshop
_6.4, _4.0, _4.0, _3.6, _4.0, _4.6 – 32 Bazaar of Baghdad
_1.6, _5.6, _4.0, _4.7, _4.0, _4.6 – 32 Dark Ritual
_2.4, _3.4, _1.3, _3.8, _3.2, _4.6 – 32 Thirst for Knowledge
_3.0, _3.2, _3.4, _2.1, _4.5, _2.9 – 20 Intuition
_1.6, _0.0, _3.0, _1.3, _1.8, _1.9 – 13 Elvish Spirit Guide
(I’m assuming 2 Yawgmoth’s Will, 8 Mana Drain, and 6 Cunning Wish for the two missing 4CC decklists.)
Last month I took a lot of flak for even suggesting that Mana Drain was allowed to ever be a serious restriction candidate, so luckily I don’t have to stick my neck out again; the data doesn’t show anything threatening except a continued high average Yawgmoth’s Will count. (Let’s hope it goes down again – the end of November was practically a format-wide flamewar about whether cards should ever be banned in Type One.)
I heard someone joke about Skeletal Scrying being the new Fact or Fiction the other day, and while that may be true, and it may be”better” in that it isn’t able to be Red Elemental Blasted, I didn’t bother including it here on account of it being so utterly fair. Direct your complaints to my inbox, if you have any.
(5) Card Counts
Missing: 2 4CC lists.
40 Island
36 Mountain
16 Swamp
11 Forest
43 Ancestral Recall
39 Time Walk
36 Mox Ruby
35 Demonic Tutor
34 Black Lotus
33 Mox Jet
33 Sol Ring
32 Mox Sapphire
29 Mox Pearl
27 Vampiric Tutor
25 Mana Crypt
26 Yawgmoth’s Will
24 Strip Mine
23 Mox Emerald
23 Fact of Fiction
23 Mystical Tutor
20 Tolarian Academy
19 Library of Alexandria
18 Mana Vault
17 Memory Jar
16 Tinker
15 Mind Twist
15 Lotus Petal
12 Timetwister
10 Wheel of Fortune
9 Windfall
8 Necropotence
8 Balance
6 Chrome Mox
5 Mind’s Desire
5 Gush
5 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
4 Crop Rotation
4 Entomb
4 Mox Diamond
4 Regrowth
3 Channel
3 Fastbond
3 Lion’s Eye Diamond
2 Time Spiral
2 Frantic Search
2 Stroke of Genius
1 Burning Wish
1 Grim Monolith
1 Enlightened Tutor
124 Force of Will
119 Brainstorm
108 Polluted Delta
104 Underground River
78 Wasteland
74 Volcanic Island
70 Duress
64 Mana Drain
62 Red Elemental Blast
56 Cunning Wish
50 Goblin Welder
45 Blue Elemental Blast
45 Rack and Ruin
45 Tormod’s Crypt
44 Chalice of the Void
43 Tropical Island
42 Mishra’s Workshop
39 Skeletal Scrying
39 Trinisphere
35 Tundra
33 Arcbound Crusher
32 Dark Ritual
32 Flooded Strand
32 Bazaar of Baghdad
32 Thirst for Knowledge
31 City of Brass
30 Squee, Goblin Nabob
29 Null Rod
29 Swords to Plowshares
27 Triskelion
26 Wooded Foothills
26 Xantid Swarm
25 Fire/Ice
24 Accumulated Knowledge
23 Stifle
23 Naturalize
22 Psychatog
22 Gorilla Shaman
21 Deep Analysis
21 Coffin Purge
21 Pernicious Deed
21 Pyroblast
21 Misdirection
20 Taiga
20 Intuition
20 Exalted Angel
20 Bayou
19 Tangle Wire
18 Ancient Tomb
18 Blood Moon
18 Shivan Reef
16 Smokestack
16 Goblin Piledriver
16 Goblin Lackey
16 Metalworker
16 Juggernaut
15 Artifact Mutation
15 Goblin Warchief
14 Defense Grid
14 Shattering Pulse
14 Animate Dead
14 Necromancy
13 Skirk Prospector
13 Decree of Justice
13 Elvish Spirit Guide
13 Sundering Titan
13 Worldgorger Dragon
12 Sphere of Resistance
12 Tinder Wall
12 Goblin Recruiter
12 Goblin Ringleader
12 Land Grant
12 Quirion Dryad
12 Skullclamp
12 Goblin Charbelcher
12 Food Chain
12 Wild Mongrel
11 Dance of the Dead
11 Basking Rootwalla
11 Bird of Paradise
11 Gempalm Incinerator
11 Mishra’s Factory
11 Damping Matrix
11 Chain of Vapor
11 Mindslaver
11 Oxidize
11 Su-Chi
11 Tendrils of Agony
11 Disenchant
10 Survival of the Fittest
10 Seat of the Synod
10 Hydroblast
10 Siege-Gang Commander
9 Ground Seal
9 Goblin Sharpshooter
9 Berserk
9 Rebuild
9 Echoing Truth
9 Platinum Angel
8 Petrified Field
8 Mogg Fanatic
8 Circular Logic
8 Chromatic Sphere
8 Verdant Force
8 Hurkyl’s Recall
8 Pyrostatic Pillar
7 Lightning Bolt
7 Goblin Matron
7 Smother
7 Disciple of the Vault
7 Roar Of The Wurm
7 Shrapnel Blast
7 Frogmite
6 Karn, Silver Golem
6 Sleight of Hand
6 Solemn Simulacrum
6 Gilded Lotus
6 Myr Enforcer
6 Root Maze
6 Goblin Vandal
6 Duplicant
6 Careful Study
6 Lightning Greaves
6 Great Furnace
5 Morphling
5 Badlands
5 City of Traitors
5 Withered Wretch
5 Glimmervoid
5 Gemstone Mine
4 Elvish Lyrist
4 Spoils of the Vault
4 Compulsion
4 Standstill
4 Anger
4 Illusionary Mask
4 Brain Freeze
4 Lim Dul’s Vault
4 Eladamri’s Vineyard
4 Goblin Goon
4 Living Wish
4 Hermit Druid
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Phyrexian Negator
4 Meddling Mage
4 Flametongue Kavu
4 Intruder Alarm
4 Ambassador Laquatus
4 Pentavus
4 Ebony Charm
4 Thoughtcast
4 Plagiarize – WTF of the Month!
4 Welding Jar
4 Maze of Ith
3 Volrath’s Shapeshifter
3 Cabal Therapy
3 Demonic Consultation
3 Future Sight
3 Uktabi Orangutan
3 Genesis Chamber
3 Tsabo’s Web
3 Arrogant Wurm
3 Darksteel Citadel
3 Gilded Drake
3 Serendib Efreet
3 Ornithopter
3 Crucible of Worlds
3 Fiery Temper
3 Violent Eruption
3 Shatter
3 Merchant Scroll
2 Sphere of Law
2 Unmask
2 Rishadan Port
2 Transmute Artifact
2 Darksteel Colossus
2 Dismantling Blow
2 Circle of Protection: Red
2 Ghastly Demise
2 Energy Flux
2 Hibernation
2 Scavenger Folk
2 Masticore
2 Memnarch
2 Firestorm
2 Myr Moonvessel
2 Quirion Ranger
2 Vault of Whispers
2 Caller of The Claw
2 Wall of Roots
2 Powder Keg
1 Zuran Orb
1 Ray of Revelation
1 Wonder
1 Barbarian Ring
1 Viridian Zealot
1 Viridian Shaman
1 Coretapper
1 Shoreline Ranger
1 Karplusan Forest
1 Buried Alive
1 Terminate
1 Staff of Domination
1 Bosh, Iron Golem
1 Gaea’s Blessing
1 Echoing Decay
1 Monk Idealist
1 The Abyss
1 Jester’s Cap
1 Silent Arbiter
1 Meltdown
1 Oblivion Stone
1 Capsize
1 Ghitu Fireslinger
1 Tainted Pact
1 Krosan Reclamation
1 Deconstruct
1 Tradewind Rider
1 Dwarven Blastminer
1 Forcefield
1 Static Orb
1 Starstorm
1 Snuff Out
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Flowstone Hellion
1 Submerge
1 Bone Shredder
Philip Stanton
prstanto at uiuc.edu
Moderator on TheManaDrain.com