One of the things I can do is to look at my weak points — and one of them is mulligans. I’m better than many at mulliganing, but in Limited I still have issues of knowing when to mulligan, mainly because the decks and matchups are much more complicated than Constructed. Constructed decks are tightly-focused, but Limited decks can have several basic plans to victory. As such, I think it might be interesting if I took a couple of games and analyzed them from opening hand to finish… So, in fact, that’s precisely what I did.One of the minor joys of being Not A Pro with a weekly column is that you have to write. This is, at times, extremely humiliating.
See, most of the Big-Name Pros can just not write when they’re having an off couple of weeks. “I’m sorry I haven’t written, but I haven’t had much to say,” they shrug, mentioning their recent run of awful luck in passing as they finally discuss the winning streak they’ve just launched back into. Then they talk about their recent wins.
The Mid-Level Pros, on the other hand, can discuss their run of awful finishes and get sympathy from the crowd because, well, they’re pros. “Sure, your last decent finish was in Pro Tour: Futtbuck in 1998,” people mutter sympathetically. “But we know in our hearts that you’re a solid player, and some day you’ll rise back to the top!” So they write about their good days, and if they don’t finish in the second day of a Grand Prix or they can’t seem to get a handle on drafting the latest set, well, that’s just their learning curve.
But when someone like me goes on a bender, it gets humiliating. I have nowhere to hide. I gotta write about something, and if I can’t distract you with another topic, then I have to talk about my awful 1-4 losing streak with a deck that should have won (not one, but two frickin’ Naclatl War Prides).
You want to know when I’ve had a bad week? It’s when I don’t talk about Sealed. It’s like the old joke:
Q: How can you tell when the teacher has a hangover?
A: Hey, class! It’s movie day!
Yup — if I’m talking about fundamental theory, it’s because I sucked out so bad that week that the vacuum created by my suckage caused a tornado of suckitude to spring up in my vicinity and Hoover everything I had into a spinning vortex of sucktacularity.
Suuuuuuck.
That said, I may well be terrible. The other problem is that unlike many other players, who have the luxury of blaming every loss on bad beats, I must believe that my losses are my own damn fault. Sure, that kid ripped a big stupid dragon, but I should have been able to play around it.
I know that luck and randomness do play a role in Magic. But if I assume every time I lose is due to pure luck, then I obscure my own role… And furthermore, a weekly article entitled “I Went 0-9 Because Everything Bad In The Universe Conspired To Make My Life A Living Hell” is not a particularly compelling piece of writing. Hey, if you think this is whining, trust me. I could do worse.
So not only do I have to show up and go, “Here, folks, here’s how I lost,” but I have to admit in public that in fact, that loss was entirely of my own making. And then have everyone in the forums agree with me.
This is not pleasant. But take yer medicine, kid.
Still. One of the things I can do is to look at my weak points — and one of them is mulligans. I’m better than many at mulliganing, but in Limited I still have issues of when to mulligan, mainly because the decks and matchups are much more complicated than Constructed. Constructed decks are tightly-focused, but Limited decks can have several basic plans to victory. As such, I think it might be interesting if I took a couple of games and analyzed them from opening hand to finish.
When I lose, it’s frequently due to “not enough gas” or “I couldn’t draw enough land.” But did I have enough land in my opening hand to justify? Or did I keep a weak hand when I shouldn’t have?
Let’s show you what I knew when I began. Then you can tell me what I should have done. Then let’s talk about what actually happened.
Game One.
I’m on the play in the first game of a three-game match. I do not know what my opponent has.
Opening Hand:
2 Plains, 2 Forests, 1 Gemhide Sliver, 1 Icatian Crier, 1 Tromp the Domains
Question: Should I keep this?
Okay, okay, trick question. If you answered anything but, “I don’t know — what else is in your deck?” then you lost. (Not that this hand doesn’t tell you a lot about how my deck functions, but hey.)
Here’s the deck — and we can debate the card pool at some other time. This isn’t an article on “How to build decks for Sealed” — it’s an article on playing with what you have. This is what I had.
All right, all right — there’s a little discussion on deckbuilding. Which is to say:
1) The plan for this deck was to either plop down a lot of little 1/1s and Tromp, or the get a Spectral Force out, or both. Because a lot of 1/1s die in this format, I should have maindecked the Pendelhaven Elder over something. As it was, I sided it in a lot.
2) I was fairly sure that Dryad Arbor wasn’t that good, but I wanted to verify this fact. In fact, it tended to die early and die often, or to be stuck in the summoning sickness mud when I desperately wanted to cast a Tromp.
3) There should have been one basic Mountain in there somewhere for the flashback on Strangling Soot; Gemhide’s just not reliable enough.
That said, here’s the hand again:
Opening Hand:
2 Plains, 2 Forests, 1 Gemhide Sliver, 1 Icatian Crier, 1 Tromp the Domains
Do you keep?
The Decision, and my Confidence:
I kept, with some reservations. I thought this could go very poorly if my opponent had removal, but it had the potential to be backbreaking if I ramped properly. Still, it had a Tromp and four land and some early action.
My opponent turned out to be:
Opponent playing G/B/r. Informed me he was “a total Timmy.”
What happened:
Turn 1:
My opponent suspends Corpulent Corpse. I draw Dryad Arbor.
Turn 2:
My opponent casts Edge of Autumn. I draw Quilled, and cast the Gemhide.
Turn 3:
He casts Vampiric Sliver — ugh. I draw Bound in Silence and cast the Icatian Crier.
Turn 4:
He casts Thornweald Archers and Epochrasite, and attacks, natch. I draw Bound in Silence and discard something I didn’t note to Icatian.
Turn 5:
He does nada. I draw Strangling Soot and discard something to Icatian.
Turn 6:
I didn’t write down what I drew here, but he Death Rattled my Icatian. In response, I ditched and made another couple of tokens.
Turn 7:
He casts Augur of Skulls, then charges in with Corpulent Corpse. I Strangling Soot it, then Tromp before he can make me discard it. Game over.
I got lucky, though — everything I drew that game was, quite literally, a 1/1. One Sulfurous Blast or Subterranean Shambler and it would have been game over.
Game 2.
The Opponent:
Same opponent, second game. I’m on the play.
Sideboarding:
My sideboarding consisted of taking Centaur Omenreader out, and putting Pendelhaven Elder in. I did not, because I was very stupid and had “Dryad Arbor” mentally put in the land pile, side it out against a B/R deck. Bad planning, Indy.
The Opening Hand:
Dryad Arbor, 2 Plains, Swamp, Pendelhaven Elder, Marshalling Cry, Forest
Question: Should I keep this?
The Decision, And My Confidence:
I kept it, but not before groaning to realize that I’d left in the Dryad Arbor. (Here’s where I’d love to lie and tell you that I took it out, but remember what I said about taking my beatings? Um, yeah.)
What Actually Happened:
Turn 1:
I stupidly led with Dryad Arbor, hoping to at least get some time with it.
Turn 2:
He casts Thornweald Archer. I draw Llanowar Empath.
Turn 3:
Sure enough, he Ichor Slicks my Arbor. Fortunately, I had both drawn and played Search For Tomorrow — sometimes, God looks out for idiots — and still had three land. (The question of whether he should have Ichor Slicked my Arbor is something I’ll leave up to you — I probably would have saved it for a better target, myself.)
Turn 4:
I drew a Tromp the Domains — and quietly pumped the first — then Llanowar Empathed into a Lumithread Field. He casts Chromatic Star and a Trespasser il-Vec.
Turn 5:
I drew a Forest, but it was enough to cast a Lumithread Field with popping mana. He, on the other hand, is distinctly short on Mountains, and pops the Chromatic Star to cast a Grinning Ignus.
Turn 6:
I draw and cast a Moorish Cavalry, and he Death Rattles it. How rude.
Turn 7:
I draw and cast a Knight of Sursi; he casts a Deepcavern Imp, and I know he’s in trouble when he discards a Boldwyr Intimidator to it.
The rest is anecdotal. He’s stuck on five lands, and my next draws are Lucent Liminid and Pulmonic Sliver. He tries discarding everything he draws to the Trespasser in an attempt to race, but at two life I Tromp and it’s bye-bye.
Game 3.
A new opponent, a new match. I know nothing. I’m going first.
The Opening Hand:
Forest, Forest, Plains, Swamp, Lucent Liminid, Knight of Sursi, Lumithread Field
Question: Should I keep this?
The Decision, And My Confidence:
I felt good about holding onto this one. I had plenty of mana and plays on turns 1 and 3, with a decent ramp-up if I drew a Plains. I have enough mana-fixing that I think that’s not a problem.
What Actually Happened:
I did not draw a Plains until turn 9. However, I did helpfully draw Knight of the Holy Nimbus on turn 2 and Pulmonic Sliver on turn 5, leaving me with three dead cards in hand. (To add insult to injury, I drew a Greenseeker on turn 10.)
Meanwhile, my opponent keeps a slow but potent hand. Here’s what his plays look like:
Turn 3: Suspends Arc Blade.
Turn 4: Sparkspitter.
Turn 5: Nightshade Assassin, targeting my Lumithreaded morph; I save it, natch, but the Assassin’s in play.
Turn 6: Arc Blade resolves, casts Corpulent Corpse.
Turn 7: Deathspore Thallid.
Turn 8: Deepcavern Imp (strangely, he cast this after combat, leading me to believe he had some truly awesome Madness spell).
Turn 9: He discards a swamp, but I Strangling Soot the Corpse as it charges into combat. Since he only has one forest, he then suspends Cyclical Evolution.
Turn 10: Vampiric Sliver.
My draws, on the other hand, in order, are:
Forest
Knight of the Holy Nimbus
Tromp the Domains
Spirit en-Dal (not a Plains! Bleah!)
Pulmonic Sliver
Quilled Sliver
Forest
Strangling Soot
Plains!
Greenseeker
Plains
…but at that point, it’s too late. I cast the Lucent Liminid and the Pulmonic, hoping to Tromp before he kills me… But at that point he had four tokens on the Deathspore and two blockers in the air, plus Arc Blade and Cyclical Mutation coming online next, so as long as he doesn’t screw it up he wins. I Tromped, but a timely Death Rattle from him made the whole exercise not really a concern.
Game 4.
The Opponent: Same guy.
Sideboarding:
I took out the Dryad and the Spirit en-Dal, and put in a regular Forest and the Elder. Boy howdy, I also suck at Limited sideboarding. I am playing first.
The Opening Hand:
Two Forests, Wrap in Vigor, Lucent Liminid, Death Rattle, two Plains
Question: Should I keep this?
The Decision, And My Confidence:
I felt reasonably good about that mulligan, because against a B/R deck with a lot of removal, betting the farm on one creature just didn’t seem good enough. Sure, I had Wrap, but no Swamps for the Death Rattle, and no plays before turn 5. I’ll stand by this toss.
Unfortunately, the second hand was worse: Centaur Omenreader, Knight of Sursi, Gemhide Sliver, Spirit en-Dal, Strangling Soot, one Plains. Okay, I could have suspended Sursi and hoped — perhaps this is where I made an error – but I dislike one-land hands, especially when I’ll be depending on Gemhide against B/R.
Down to five… And it’s a single forest, joined by Moorish Cavalry, Wrap in Vigor, Gemhide Sliver, and Strangling Soot. This might work. Might.
What Actually Happened:
It was that sort of awful game where for a moment, I had hope. There was precisely one decision I made that had any impact, and the rest was rote.
The play, in fact, was on turn 3. I had drawn a Forest (yay!) and a Spirit en-Dal, and spent turn 2 laying the Gemhide. My opponent, on the other hand, had cast a Sword of the Meek on turn 2 and Wormwood Dryad on turn 3.
It is my Turn 4. I had both a Search for Tomorrow and a Strangling Soot in hand, and just enough mana to cast one. Should I:
a) Strangle the Wormwood Dryad in response to him equipping it, thus costing him tempo and buying me more time?
b) Cast Search for Tomorrow and take my beating?
c) Or hell, should I have burned the Strangling Soot at the end of his turn 3, destroying precious removal in the hopes of buying any time?
I’m not sure; I’m too used to holding removal back, and I didn’t like the idea of burning a Soot on a 3/1 when he had five other cards in hand. As it was, I Searched, and it didn’t matter — instead of equipping the Wormwood, he merely attacked and then Nightshade Assassined my Gemhide, revealing a Deathspore Thallid. The next few attacks were ugly, and he finished me off by Arc Blading my despero-blocking Knight of Sursi and swinging for the win.
Game 4.
The Opponent: Someone borrowed, someone new; it’s a new match and I am clueless. I am going second.
The Opening Hand:
3 Plains, 2 Forests, Strangling Soot, Quilled Sliver
Question: Should I keep this?
The Decision, And My Confidence:
I mulliganed. I had one play, and with only two Swamps in the deck I didn’t feel confident that the Soot would be there when I needed it.
My next hand:
2 Forests, Spectral Force, Dryad Arbor, Llanowar Empath, Quilled Sliver
Not great, but it’s at least kind of workable if I draw something. But here’s what he did:
Turn 3: Wall of Roots
Turn 4: Castle Raptors
Turn 5: Durkwood Tracker
Turn 6: Morph, leaving WG open – unmorphs Whip-Spine Drake at EOT
Turn 7: Stuffy Doll
Turn 8: Stonewood Invocation on the Raptors.
Whereas I drew:
Turn 1: Moorish Cavalry
Turn 2: Plains
Turn 3: Plains
Turn 4: Plains, cast Llanowar Empath past a Plains and an Edge of Autumn into…. A Forest.
Turn 5: Spectral Force.
The “Spectral Force on turn 5” is nice, but not when I have nothing on defense to work with. You may note that I drew nothing for the aerial attack, and it took me down in short order.
Of course, that was an ugly land pocket. Come on, man, that was effectively six lands (or five lands and a cycling Autumn)!
Game 4.
The Opponent: Same guy.
The Sideboarding: In goes a Return to Dust, out goes a… Something I apparently forgot to write down at the time. But I assure you that something did go out, yessiree! I love my note-taking!
But I am going first.
The Opening Hand:
Wrap in Vigor, Edge of Autumn, Plains, Return to Dust, Lumithread Field, Death Rattle, Pulmonic Sliver
Question: Should I keep this?
The Decision, And My Confidence:
A mulligan. I am utterly happy with this mulligan, at least as far as mulligans go; one land and a hand of expensive spells means that I shall not get to cast anything. I’m cool.
Unfortunately, the best hand isn’t much better, but I keep this one:
Spectral Force, Knight of the Holy Nimbus, Lumithread Field, Marshalling Cry, Plains, Forest
My opponent keeps a very slow hand. He doesn’t do much at all, in fact, before turn 5:
Turn 5: Castle Raptors
Turn 6: Stuffy Doll, suspend Knight of Sursi
Turn 7: Llanowar Reborn, Durkwood Tracker
Not much, you might think, but certainly not a bad play. Except that I had this:
Turn 2: Cycle Marshalling Cry into Quilled Sliver.
Turn 3: Cast Icatian Crier, draw a Plains.
Turn 4: Draw a Forest! OMG! Lay Lumithread field, beat for a bit.
Turn 5: Search for Tomorrow into a Swamp, just in case I draw the Tromp the Domains. Discard something to Icatian Crier.
Turn 6: I draw Tromp the Domains! How lucky! Now all I need is to a) amass an army, and b) wait for my Blue opponent to tap out. At the end of his turn, I drop the Quilled Sliver to the Crier.
Turn 7: Drop the Knight of the Holy Nimbus to the Crier at his end of turn, lay a Dryad Arbor.
Turn 8: Tromp.
It’s so cute. He has one Blue open, three guys, and infinite 4/4 guys coming at him, and he actually assigns blockers. I don’t get the people who don’t just cede when lethal damage is on the way; some folks just have to let MODO do it for ‘em, I guess.
Game 4.
The Opponent: Same guy as before. I’m on the draw.
The Opening Hand:
2 Forest, 2 Plains, Marshalling Cry, Edge of Autumn, Quilled Sliver.
Question: Should I keep this?
The Decision, And My Confidence:
I kept it, but I wasn’t overly thrilled. I was thinking that I was on the draw, and I had Edge of Autumn and a cycler, so I’d draw into more action. Maybe. I hoped.
How It Actually Went:
Turn 1:
He suspends Ivory Giant. I draw Lucent Liminid.
Turn 2:
He casts Edge of Autumn, and I’m so inspired by him that I feel the urge to do likewise on my turn. (I drew a Forest.)
Turn 3:
He suspends Nantuko Shaman. I draw a Plains and cast Quilled Sliver, cycling the Marshall to get a Knight of the Holy Nimbus.
Turn 4:
His Shaman comes in and hits me, and then he goes into a suspending frenzy as he suspends Infiltrator en-Kor and Knight of Sursi. I draw a Bound in Silence, and cast the Lucent Liminid.
Turn 5:
He attacks me. Why not? Then he casts a Wall of Roots, and I note with amusement that he has no Blue mana sources aside from Caliform Pools. I, on the other hand, draw a Pendelhaven Elder and cast that.
Did I attack with the Liminid? I don’t think I did, but my notes do not say.
Turn 6:
His Ivory Giant comes on-line, and he gets confused enough to stack it the wrong way and his Infiltrator en-Kor comes into play just in time to get tapped. (It wouldn’t have mattered anyway, since I would have just pinged it with Quilled Sliver, but still.)
I take the hit, flash back the Marshalling Cry to make sure our life totals are in the same range, then cast Bound in Silence on his Ivory Giant, beginning to stabilize the board.
Turn 7:
He attacks with the il-Kor. I Sliver it. He flashes me a Stonewood Invocation. That’s bad, and I’m down to three.
Turn 9:
He casts D’Avenant Healer. This is worse, because I’m down to three and now his en-Kor can kill me if it gets through. In the meantime, my draws have been Greenseeker, Greenseek-during-my-upkeep-and-still-draw-a-Plains, Greenseek-during-my-upkeep-and-still-draw-a-damn Forest, Strangling Soot.
Turn 10:
He attacks with il-Kor. I Sliver it, and he Archers it. In response, I Strangling Soot, and he removes two counters from the Calciform Pools to Logic Knot it for like infinite mana. GG.
That was a little frustrating. Two turns using the Greenseeker, getting four lands. Any action would have helped… But no. That’s the way the game works, I guess, and I go 1-2 in matches. Ugly.
The Weekly Plug Bug
Hey! My webcomic Home on the Strange is still, surprisingly, up and running! This week involves a cheap “Clerks” joke — check it out!
Sincerely,
The Ferrett
TheFerrett@StarCityGames.com
The Here Edits This Site Here Guy