As some of you may know, there is a Legacy format on Magic Online… or at least, there’s a format with a very similar banned list to Legacy that people can choose to play… if there were other people to play with. Legacy is in an unsustainable state on Magic Online, and serious changes to the format management need to occur immediately for the continued success of Legacy as a format.

Three months ago, I sold my entire Legacy collection on Magic Online. This is why I haven’t produced videos since then. The format represented too much tied-up capital relative to the amount I was able to play. I miss playing Legacy on Magic Online and feel that I am not playing as strong of a paper Magic game without access to Magic Online. My several-thousand-dollar investment into the game simply couldn’t be justified without being able to play it frequently.

Legacy events are going the way of old Extended: no significant amount of play at all. Peter Jahn, of PureMTGO, has compiled statistics on how many Daily Events have fired each week:

Week ending: Fired

November 18 0
November 26 0
November 11 0
November 4 0
October 28 0
October 21 0
October 14 0
October 7 1
September 30 2
September 23 4
September 16 5
September 9 0

[http ://puremtgo .com /articles /state –program –october -20 th]

Right now, there are 30 Legacy Daily Events scheduled every week, and a Premier event every other week or so. Out of this twelve-week period, only twelve Daily Events fired. This is out of line with both historical Legacy trends and peer formats, such as Classic, which has enjoyed a handful of events every week.

Legacy is in a historical downswing. There are no major paper events in the near future in the United States. Historically, Legacy has had boom periods immediately prior to large events, such as GP Columbus, GP Providence, and the MOCS Legacy tournaments. Nevertheless, this does not fully account for the downswing; Legacy has been successful through this boom-bust cycle for several years.

Legacy fulfills an important role in the Magic Online economy.

Legacy and to a lesser extent Modern are important formats for the long-term health of Magic Online. Primarily, they create a reason for cards to exist. If Legacy wasn’t played, then once cards rotated out of Standard and Extended, the only thing propping up their value would be playability in Commander—a format that barely exists on Magic Online due to its own set of problems—and Pauper, the all-commons format!

Legacy, Modern, and Classic also allow for older draft formats to be continuously played. Long-forgotten formats such as Ravnica draft are good and popular formats, but their financial viability is at least partly based on the playability of cards in older formats.

Does Legacy actually make Wizards money?

Yes. Absent a robust Legacy format, sets like Master’s Edition or whole releases such as Mirage Block would see far less demand than they do currently. Even something like Time Spiral block, whose value is largely derived from Modern and Legacy cards, wouldn’t see nearly as many queues firing as it does currently. It is in Wizards’ best interest to generate demand for out-of-print cards due to the unique distribution of Magic Online packs.

Additionally, imagine the hypothetical Magic Online world where there were three formats: Limited, Standard, and Block. Once cards rotate out of Standard, there is no reason for individuals to keep any cards from the set, at all. They would instead just be redeemed, a process that costs Wizards a significant amount of money. Therefore, a strong Legacy format creates a reason for players to redeem fewer sets than they would otherwise.

What Went Wrong?

Issue 1: Mental Misstep Legacy was degenerate

In late August and September, Legacy was an interesting, albeit degenerate, format. This is a deck that has won quite a few Daily Events:

U/R Standstill

Michael Caffrey

Test deck on 12-04-2011

Legacy

Creatures (3)

3 Grim Lavamancer

Planeswalkers (1)

1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Lands (25)

Spells (31)

Sideboard

The preponderance of slow, grinding decks created a solid barrier to the format; most successful decks were of the Stoneforge Mystic and Ancestral Vision variety. These decks, or more importantly the quantity of them, and the manner in which games played out created an environment that excluded many decks from the format, including decks that were successful just months prior, such as Junk.

Although a variety of competitive decks continued to be played in paper throughout the Misstep era, Magic Online only featured the most competitive of players and consequently only strong, Misstep-based decks. The Mental Misstep era wasn’t ended on Magic Online until October 11, two weeks after the paper bans came into effect, creating a rather outdated format. There was only about a week between the banning of Mental Misstep and Innistrad’s Release on Magic Online. With multiple formats competing for players’ time and tickets, Legacy was put on the back burner, while Innistrad Sealed and Draft tournaments took center stage. The release events have faded away into the past, but Legacy still isn’t getting the numbers it historically had.

Magic Online has significant challenges compared to paper Magic, as switching decks is, for many people, more difficult due to a lack of close, personal relationships between players and a trading interface that makes borrowing cards harder. This constrains many players to decks that might be ineffective against Mental Misstep, forcing them to either lose or not play.

Although this explains the issues Magic Online experienced in the depths of Mental Misstep, it doesn’t fully explain the current predicament. Other causes may still be responsible.

Issue 2: The Rise of Modern

In late August, Wizards launched the Modern format on Magic Online. As a competing format to Legacy, Modern has enjoyed some success but not nearly the success that one could expect. Over the three-week period from September 30 to October 21, only a handful of Modern events have fired. Again, the September banned and restricted update came into effect the same time Legacy was updated, creating a period where the paper and digital formats failed to line up. In the month that followed, only a handful of Modern events fired, representing a very real problem: Wizards has divided Eternal players into two groups, with neither group having enough players to launch Daily Events.

Issue 3: Relative Cost

Magic Online is typically far cheaper than paper counterparts. Cards such as Imperial Recruiter, Moat, or The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale cost only fractions of what they cost in real life. However, Force of Will is the poster child for excessively priced cards on Magic Online. When two decks are compared side by side, the paper decks are almost always more expensive than the digital decks. However, Magic Online suffers from an image problem. Many players I have talked to perceive Force of Will as being “too expensive” for a virtual card. These are the same players that will regularly draft, play Commander, or enjoy other formats.

It is not an issue of refusing to buy virtual objects. Rather, the mental barrier of spending $100 on a single virtual card is a very real psychological barrier, preventing the format from enjoying more popularity than it could otherwise enjoy.

Issue 4: Availability

No matter how many tickets someone may have, it means little when cards simply aren’t for sale on the open market. Due to flagging Legacy attendance, many Legacy players have sold out of the format. Many dealers currently have 20+ copies of the expensive cards in stock. There is still one card which has availability issues. Lion’s Eye Diamond is, at the time of writing, incredibly hard to find right now. A cursory glance at the classifieds has no sellers actively selling the card. Even among the major bot chains, one of them has three available; another has zero. Card availability is a very serious issue on Magic Online right now and one not easily rectified. Especially as metagames shift and previously forgotten cards become the next big thing, there simply aren’t enough cards in the marketplace.

For several weeks this past summer, I attempted to purchase Natural Orders to play NO RUG. I spent hours, across several days, trying to lock up a set. I picked up three easily from a major bot chain, but the fourth one… nobody had them for sale at that point. Even though the price was 35 tickets at the time, I offered 40, and later 45, without getting a single sale. The market inefficiencies contribute to poor availability but are not the only sources of the problem.

Issue 5: Relevance

On Magic Online, many formats are solely a means to an end. Countless Innistrad Drafts culminate in a PTQ or Grand Prix finish. However, Legacy online is an end unto itself. For much of the year, there is no end game for Legacy. Outside of major events, such as the Magic Online Championship Series or a North American Grand Prix, there is no real reason for an individual to play Legacy over any of the other formats. There are no PTQs and few Grand Prix level events. While StarCityGames.com produces a great event series, few people spend hours or weeks preparing exclusively for one of these events. One of the biggest challenges is to make individuals care about Legacy as a format and play it regularly.

How can Magic Online be fixed?

A fundamental issue with any fix of Legacy is that a halfway solution isn’t a solution at all. That is, any solution needs to galvanize a large enough number of players to start playing the format to have Daily Events firing on a regular basis. This, in and of itself, is the goal: Continual Legacy events indicating long-term format health. Once this critical mass occurs, the format can be both successful and self-sustaining.

1. Increase Card Availability / Decrease Card Cost

Some single cards are incredibly difficult to find. There is only a handful on the market at any given time, as most collectors and long-term players rarely sell cards they play with. Players shouldn’t have to spend hours trying to construct their decks, scouring bots simply trying to find cards.

Currently, new cards are added to the market through draft and sealed events, run every couple months. This small influx of cards will increase short-term supply, but in a couple months, the problems reemerge. Card availability needs to be solved over the medium or long term for Legacy to be successful.

One of the most straightforward ways to increase supply is to duplicate all current uncommons and rares from non-redeemable sets. These include many of the older Modern sets, making that format easier to get into as well. If Player A has a playset of Force of Wills, then after this duplication, they will have two playsets. Since nobody actually needs to own two playsets of anything on Magic Online, this player will be incentivized to sell off his or her extra cards—cards that can be bought by new players looking to enter the format.

Duplicating existing cards not only pushes more cards on the market, but also decreases the cost of individual cards. Dramatically reducing the barrier to entry will make it easier for players to invest in a variety of Legacy decks. Even players that receive a windfall from the duplication can invest in fringe Legacy cards, like Goblin Welder or Grim Monolith, increasing deck diversity over the long term.

There is some associated risk here. The price will most likely not fall by exactly half, and players that sell ahead of the curve or players that sell after the split will gain value over the other group. This isn’t a serious problem. Players that lose some minor amount of value should be relieved they can play their format again. In the long term, prices will recover as the format gains popularity.

There is no direct, inherent cost to Wizards in doing this. Their servers no longer store individual cards as unique objects; rather the quantities are stored in their databases. This means there is no additional hardware cost required.

There will be an indirect cost; players will be less likely to open packs and play in events with out-of-print packs. Historically, early formats were poor Limited formats, but players still played in events. MED1 events are particularly notorious, as Force of Will is one of only a few valuable cards. The real question is why would players want to play in events that aren’t actually enjoyable to play in?

2. Increase Prizes

In Block Constructed, or even Standard, it is relatively easy for a good player to win back his or her deck cost. This is a very simple example, designed to illustrate my position. In the real world, some rounds will be easier and others harder.

Case Study – Player A: 60/40 against the field
4-0: 12.96%
3-1: 34.56%
No Prize: 52.48%
Expected Value: .1296 * 11 + .3456 * 6 = 3.4992 packs / event

Case Study – Player B: 50/50 against the field
4-0: 6.25%
3-1: 25%
No Prize: 68.75%
Expected Value: .625*11 + .25 * 6 = 2.1875 packs / event

Case Study – Player C: 40/60 against the field
4-0: 2.82%
3-1: 9.22%
No Prize: 82.08%
Expected Value: .0282*11 + .0922*6 = 1.2032 packs / event

Let’s assume packs can be sold to bots at 3.25 tickets / pack. This is a reasonable estimate, as pack prices are highly variable, between 3 and 4 tickets depending on overall supply.

Player A would make 11.4 tickets per Daily Event, for a net gain of 5.4 tickets

Player B would make 7.1 tickets per Daily Event, for a net gain of 1.1 tickets

Player C would make 3.9 tickets per Daily Event, for a net loss of 2.1 tickets

This assumes all opponents have equal skill level and ignores many factors, such as bonus tickets from selling the end of season promotional cards, as well as catching byes in the first two rounds. But these statistics serve as an effective baseline for conversation.

An average Standard Constructed deck from last season cost $165. For Player A, playing two Daily Events a day sees his or her investment returned in only 15 days. For Player B, the definition “average” player, they can recoup their investment in three months. A longer period, to be sure. But it is still possible to turn a real profit solely by playing Standard. (This discounts selling cards after playing with them.)

An average Block Constructed deck is even cheaper, averaging on the order of $60. For Player A, they could turn a profit in just a week. Player B still only takes a month to come out ahead of the game.

Now let’s look at Legacy. The average deck is $975. For Player A, they would need to play for three months before seeing a profit, while Player B needs to spend more than a year grinding out Daily Events to make money off their initial investment..

(Prices courtesy of: http ://puremtgo .com /articles /state –program –september -16 th )

Herein lies the problem. Legacy decks as a whole are priced out of many players’ budgets. Even the best players, the dedicated grinders, must spend an incredible amount of effort to turn even a small profit from Legacy play.

Notice when discussing prize payouts that all Daily Events pay out more than they take in. This disparity indicates that Wizards feels it is okay to run events with value added to them. Taking this idea further, there is no reason Legacy couldn’t shift to a prize payout of 13 boosters for 4-0 and 8 boosters for 3-1, increasing the expected value for Player B to 9.14, representing only a three-ticket profit per event. Modest, yes, but still enough to incentivize people to play the format.

The additional boosters don’t even need to be of the current set. Rewarding 4-0 players with a sealed pack that can be opened for a subset of high-value Legacy cards or handing out points that can be redeemed for individual cards can provide a market solution to reward individuals for playing Legacy.

(I would also be in favor of expanding this system to a variety of unique events that never, or rarely, fire. These include 100-Card Singleton, Standard Singleton, Kaleidoscope, and Classic.)

3. A Lame Duck Format

Mercadian Masques is set to release at the end of the year. This represents the last large set that is not on Magic Online and matches paper Legacy with digital Legacy, barring only a small handful of cards that aren’t particularly relevant. While Mercadian Masques may start a renaissance of competitive Legacy, it is doubtful. The most relevant Mercadian Masques block cards are minor sideboard cards like Submerge or Misdirection (and Rishadan Port, but that card is seeing almost no play in paper, with Goblins, Death and Taxes, and Lands variants not played).

4. Set Up a Consistent Schedule of Nix-Pax Drafts

Every week on Magic Online should bring with it a new set of no-tickets-required draft. There are enough old formats for players to enjoy that these can be rotated through over a long period of time, without experiencing the same draft format too often. When older formats are made available, large numbers of players flock to the events and play in them.

This should be done regardless; the formats have all been run in the past and represent format diversity to allow players the opportunity to play the formats they want to play most. There is no reason that this draft format needs to have weeks go by without a new set, as it does currently.

5. Theme Decks

Check out this decklist:

Exiler

Magic Online

Test deck on 03-27-2011

Legacy

Creatures (26)

Lands (22)

Spells (13)

Sideboard

It seems relatively solid for a Legacy deck. This is the “Exiler” deck, from the Magic Online Deck Series. Featuring a number of strong Legacy cards, including Mangara of Corondor plus Karakas and Stoneforge Mystic plus Umezawa’s Jitte, this deck held down the price of Stoneforge Mystic for a time in Standard.

Unfortunately, Wizards only produced two decks from this line and stopped for some reason. The other, “Boltslinger,” was a powerful mono-red deck, complete with 4 Goblin Guide and 4 Chain Lightning.

There is no reason this series couldn’t be expanded to other decks, as a way of easing format staples into circulation. The issue with this plan is how dramatically it will interact with the secondary market. These decks originally sold for only $30 and largely just kept Standard-legal cards in check. Stoneforge Mystic had a $6 version the entire time it was in Standard because of this deck. An expansion to this series would undoubtedly border on printing more prominent Modern and Legacy staples, suddenly distorting the price in an unhealthy manner, wiping out value from individual collections and retailers.

I hope this article has given you some opinions on how Legacy can grow as a format on Magic Online. I’m excited to hear your ideas in the feedback below for what should be done to help fix this problem. My personal view is duplicating cards will solve most of the problems, but it is one of several options Wizards of the Coast can use to fix Legacy. I think we can all agree that the way Legacy is managed now will not lead to long-term success of the format.

The Invitational

The StarCityGames.com Invitational in Charlotte is just two weeks away. I will be donating all prize money from the event to Gamers Helping Gamers, a charity that provides scholarship money to younger Magic players. I feel it is important to give back to the community, especially when it has contributed a lot to where I am in life.

I don’t know what I’m playing in either format right now and don’t play very much Standard, so if anyone has a solid decklist feel free to send it my way. For Legacy, I’m leaning towards the incredibly powerful Maverick deck (G/W), either with or without Punishing Fires. Maverick is very well positioned right now, as the control decks in the format have few answers for Knight of the Reliquary and Thrun, the Last Troll. There are also a large number of flexible sideboard options for the deck to counter most strategies. Unfortunately, the deck doesn’t play Brainstorm.

Michael Caffrey

mchain on Magic Online

@mchainmail on Twitter