I used to call the first week of a new Standard format “Overreaction Week.”
Those days are over.
Back in the Return to Ravnica era, the SCG Tour event the week after the Prerelease was the first real chance for anyone to test their new Standard decks in a competitive setting. As a result, there would almost always be a card or two that wildly overperformed based on a small sample size as well as a lack of time for metagame adjustments. This would lead to an obscene price spike and a lot of bad financial decisions. Anyone who bought Boros Reckoner for $12 or World Breaker for $25 knows what I’m talking about.
Things are different now. Back then, Magic Arena wasn’t even a twinkle in Wizards of the Coast’s eye and new sets weren’t released on Magic Online until several weeks after the Prerelease. Now, new sets drop on Arena and Magic Online the Thursday before the Prerelease. By the time you’re reading this, brewers have already had more than ten days to innovate and iterate on Throne of Eldrane Standard. Archetypes have been tested, discarded, honed, and perfected. There have even been multiple high-profile Standard tournaments already, including Arena’s Fandom Legends. It’s safe to say that we know more about Throne of Eldraine Standard today than we’ve known about any other Standard environment ever at this point on the Magic calendar.
That doesn’t mean everything is set in stone, of course. Metagames still evolve. Cards still rise and fall in price and popularity based on what else is seeing play. If you’re holding out hope that a no-show mythic like Outlaws’ Merriment will eventually find a home, I’m not going to tell you to give up hope. Almost every card in Throne of Eldraine still has a chance at spawning a top-tier deck at some point.
But good cards tend to rise to the top and stay there. For example. Teferi, Time Raveler has been a key part of the metagame since the day it was printed, and I can’t imagine that changing over the next year. At this point, we know enough about Throne of Eldrane for me to start making some calls about which cards might end up being the next Teferi or Search for Azcanta – and which might get lost in the shuffle.
Buying High and Selling Low
I spent a lot of time in this column talking about buying low and selling high, but that isn’t always the best move. Early in the life-cycle of a new set, buying high and selling low is often the best play.
Consider Mox Amber and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. When these two cards were first previewed, Mox Amber was $28 and Teferi was $13. These kinds of mistakes can happen early on in a preview season, and I don’t blame anyone for not pre-ordering Teferi.
But let’s take a look at where these two cards were about a week after Dominaria‘s Prerelease. By that point, it was already pretty clear that Teferi, Hero of Dominaria was the real deal. It was the breakout hit of that Standard format’s first week of play, and it had already climbed up to —the price where Mox Amber began.
And speaking of Mox Amber, that card had already begun to fall. By Week 1, it was down to about $22 and it was pretty clear that it wasn’t going to find a home – at least not right away.
At the time, the “buy low, sell high” move would have been to sell Teferi at $28 and buy Mox Amber at $22. That would have been a mistake. As you probably remember, Teferi, Hero of Dominaria ended up being a $50-$55 card for several months while Mox Amber bottomed out at $15. It has since regained some value thanks to Modern play, but you would have had plenty of time to buy in at $10-$12 if you were patient.
In retrospect, the right move would have been to buy high on Teferi and sell low on Mox Amber. At the time, you probably could have traded five copies of Mox Amber for four copies of Teferi. A few months later, the Teferis would have been worth $200+ and the Ambers just $75.
This doesn’t always work, but if there’s ever a time to utilize this strategy, it’s right now. Throne of Eldraine prices are still in flux, and some values are still based more on pre-order prices than on actual demand. If you can take advantage of this before the market shakes out, you’ll do quite well for yourself.
On to the cards!
Winner: Realm-Cloaked Giant
I was quite high on Realm-Cloaked Giant in my Throne of Eldraine set review, and it does indeed appear as though the mythic sweeper will emerge as one of the metagame’s key cards. It’s certainly possible that folks will adjust by adding more Giants to their deck, but for now it appears as though this is that card that makes Golos Ramp one of the metagame’s first decks to beat.
As I said in my set review, a card that can do double duty as both sweeper and threat is almost certain to find a home somewhere due to its incredible versatility. I just expected it to end up in a control deck, not a ramp deck.
Speaking of Golos Ramp, it is pretty clearly the deck to beat in Standard right now. It was incredibly popular at SCG Philadelphia over the weekend, and a lot of otherwise powerful decks are going to end up falling by the wayside because they don’t have a good answer to Field of the Dead. If the Standard metagame seems odd right now, it’s likely because of the pressure that these Golos decks are putting on the format.
These decks aren’t cheap, either. Brian Gottlieb’s version of Golos Ramp runs four copies of Hydroid Krasis and three copies of Teferi, Time Raveler, while some of the newer brews swap out the Teferis for copies of Oko. All three of these cards are among Standard’s elite right now, defining the metagame as part of multiple top-tier decks. Expect their prices to keep trending upward over the next week or two.
As for Golos itself, $3 is too low for the key card in one of the format’s best decks. Unless this deck falls by the wayside completely, which I doubt, then you can expect this card to end up in the $5-$6 range at least. Remember: Core Set 2020 doesn’t have a lot of expensive cards in it, so there’s a lot of room for gains here.
The same is true for Golos’s partner in crime, Field of the Dead. That card is sold out at $6 right now, and it seems destined to be re-stocked at $7-$8 at least. The card sees play in Modern and Legacy, too, so don’t expect it to come down in price any time soon.
Going back to Realm-Cloaked Giant, the card is also showing up in Jeskai Fires, another deck that I’m keeping a close eye on and will cover in greater detail a little later. Because of all this action, I’m pretty shocked that it’s only gone up $1, from $5 to $6. Such disrespect for a card that has really proven itself over the past week and a half! $10-$15 seems like a reasonable goal here and I’m definitely going to snag a set of these at just $6 per copy.
Winner: Once Upon a Time
While I don’t expect Once Upon a Time to see a surge in price, it’s hard not to call this card a success story. It was a bit of a no-show during the first week of Fandom Legends, which made some people think it might end up being a bust, but it’s been fairly omnipresent since then. The Golos Ramp decks love it too, as do Bant Ramp and Simic Flash. It’s even starting to see some play in Modern, appearing in decks like Neobrand and some of the Mono-Green Tron lists.
It’s possible that Once Upon a Time will end up below $10 for a while once Throne of Eldraine bottoms out this winter, but this card reminds me of Assassin’s Trophy: a card that started out with an unreal amount of hype before settling in as an above-average removal spell. It doesn’t look like Once Upon a Time will be getting banned in Modern or anything, but it’s a super-solid utility spell that might end up in the $20+ range next fall. I feel good about snagging these at current retail.
Loser: Garruk, Cursed Huntsman
Garruk has actually seen a little more play than I expected (I expected it would see no play), but this six-mana planeswalker is far from the future format staple that some people thought it would become. I was low on Garruk when it pre-sold at $23, and now it’s down to $12 and dropping. Big splashy casual planeswalkers like this rarely end up too far below $10, but I still feel like Garruk is going to end up being a $6-$7 card before long. I’m a fan of moving on from this one at current retail.
Push: Bonecrusher Giant and Murderous Rider
I was a huge fan of both Bonecrusher Giant and Murderous Rider in my set review, but the jury is still out on how impactful they’ll end up being. Murderous Rider was second only to Oko in terms of Throne of Eldrane cards that gained value since the start of preview season, but the current metagame isn’t exactly friendly to black cards. Bonecrusher Giant was a little less heralded, but it has the same problem right now. With blue, green, and white cards hogging the spotlight, there hasn’t been a lot of room for either of these two powerful Adventure spells.
That said, I still think that both cards are solid buys right now. Nearly all the red decks we’ve seen so far are running Bonecrusher Giant, and ditto Murderous Rider in black. Even the Esper Control decks that are built around sweeping the battlefield multiple times a game run Murderous Rider. At some point, red and black will regain large chunks of the metagame share. And when they do, Bonecrusher Giant and Murderous Rider will increase in price.
Winner: Oko, Thief of Crowns
If it wasn’t clear before, it should be clear now: Oko, Thief of Crowns is going to be the most expensive card in Throne of Eldrane for the next year at least. Oko is currently selling for $40 – up from a pre-order price of $20 – and it might not be done gaining value. $40 is a reasonable long-term price tag for Oko if the rest of the set pans out the way I think it will, but it’s possible that Oko will end up at $50 or even $60 over the short-term as demand begins to surge and supply hasn’t yet risen to meet it.
Right now, the Oko deck that I’m most excited about is this Bant Ramp brew that Caleb Durward piloted to victory in last week’s Fandom Legends event. It’s yet another deck that leans on Teferi, Time Raveler and Hydroid Krasis, this time alongside new Throne of Eldrane cards like Gilded Goose and Oko. Nissa, Who Shakes the World is also in the mix this time, which makes sense – she was one of the most powerful cards in last season’s Standard environment, too.
Oko might eventually end up in the $20-$25 range again, but that would require the Standard metagame to end up taking a hard turn away from Simic as well as a lack of adoption in Modern. I strongly doubt that either of those things happen. Oko shares a color identity with Hydroid Krasis, another Top 5 card in the format right now, and I also suspect that this three-mana planeswalker will end up finding a home or three in Modern before long. That’s the recipe for a card that’s going to end up being quite valuable for quite some time.
I can’t really ever recommend buying a Standard card for $40, since you’re already scraping up against the format’s price ceiling, but I’ll make an exception here. If Oko ends up being a four-of in Golos Ramp as well as the Bant Ramp and Simic Flash decks, supply isn’t going to be high enough to meet demand for months. Sometimes you have to pay up for mythic rares that warp the format, and Oko is getting dangerously close to that place.
Winner: Fires of Invention
Fires of Invention hasn’t seen its price tag increase yet, but I expect that to change over the next week or two. There are four Fires decks registered in the current Fandom Legends event, and I think we’re only scratching the surface of what this card can do.
When I first saw Fires of Invention, my only question was whether WotC made the drawback too harsh. It’s pretty clear at this point that they did not. While Fires might not be overpowered, it’s still an incredibly solid engine that’s likely to see a lot of play going forward. It’s a buy at $3.
Speaking of Fires of Invention, the current iteration of this deck runs four copies each of Bonecrusher Giant, Cavalier of Flame, Cavalier of Gales, and Deafening Clarion. Both of the Cavaliers are mythic rares from Core Set 2020, and they’re still just $5. If this deck ends up on top of the metagame at any point, these cards will double in value at least. I’d snag them now if you’re on the fence.
Loser: The Royal Scions
Remember when Oko and The Royal Scions were both pre-ordering for $20? Since then, Oko has jumped to $40 while The Royal Scions have tumbled all the way down to $13. Here’s hoping you guessed correctly!
I was really hoping that Izzet Phoenix would come back into vogue with Throne of Eldraine, but that simply hasn’t happened yet. This deck did take 16th place at Fandom Legends last week, but that’s not enough for me to place it anywhere near the format’s top tiers. Other than that, this card has been a no-show almost everywhere.
I still like The Royal Scions, and it’s the sort of card that could end up being $30+ later in the year if the metagame shifts back toward Izzet. It might end up seeing play in Modern at some point, too. But for now, this thing isn’t done dropping in price. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Royal Scions is down to $6 or $7 by the end of the month, and I’m trading these away at current retail.
Push: Questing Beast
At $20, Questing Beast is currently the second-most-expensive card in Throne of Eldraine. But is it worth the hype? I’m still not sure. It was showing up a lot in sideboards during the first few days of the format, and then it more or less disappeared. Now it’s back in decks like Matt Nass’s Bant Midrange and Caleb Durward’s Bant Ramp.
Questing Beast’s price tag has been pretty stable, too. Demand has been strong, but not strong enough to cause the price to shoot up like Oko, Thief of Crowns. Expect this to continue. Considering how good green is in the format right now, Questing Beast is going to have every chance to succeed. I don’t see this card ending up in the $30+ range ever, but $15 seems like the realistic short-term floor and snagging these at current retail is fine.
Winner: Kenrith, the Returned King
The last card I want to talk about this week is Kenrith, the Returned King. It’s the Buy-A-Box promo for Throne of Eldraine. I hadn’t pegged this one as a Standard-playable card, but it’s actually quite good in Golos Ramp, where it can act as a mirror-breaker as well as a way to deal with troublesome battlefield stalls.
Right now, the nonfoil copies of Kenrith from Collector Boosters are worth twice as much as the foil Buy-A-Box copies. Not only are they a lot more scarce, but playing foils in tournaments is always a risk due to potential warping / marked cards issues. With Nexus of Fate last season, a judge could issue a proxy for you since the card was only available as a foil. That isn’t true for Kenrith, though, so if you’re worried about this problem, make sure that you buy the nonfoil.
Kenrith doesn’t seem like the kind of card that’ll be super-valuable long-term, though. I don’t think it’ll see a ton of play outside of Golos Ramp, and I doubt that deck will ever want more than one or two copies. But short-term, the available supply of nonfoil Collector Booster copies is likely to be far outstripped by demand. It’s okay to grab one of these if you need it, and it might increase in price over the next week or two as folks scramble to build Golos Ramp themselves, but this is not the next Nexus of Fate. Not even close.
This Week’s Trends
Paradoxical Urza continues to be the hottest deck in Modern, and its staples were the biggest gainers of the week in that format. Mox Amber jumped almost $15 this week, and it’s finally back over its pre-order price for the first time. Meanwhile, Urza, Lord High Artificer and Paradoxical Outcome both saw meaningful gains as well. Even Engineered Explosives is starting to get in on the action.
Creatures (6)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (18)
Spells (33)
It’s possible that Paradoxical Urza will fade into the background once we see what Emry, Lurker of the Loch brings to the table over the next couple of weeks, but something tells me that demand is going to remain high. This deck is just too good to end up being a flash in the pan, and I expect its staples to continue being hot commodities.
Also up this week in Modern? Jeskai Ascendancy. This card is a key combo piece in Whirza Emry, a new combo deck that uses Emry, Lurker of the Loch in the powerful Whirza shell. I’m a big fan of both Whirza and Emry in Modern, and I suspect that this deck will continue to do well in some form or other. Note that Sai, Master Thopterist is a key card in a lot of these decks, and the Core Set 2019 rare is still readily available for just $3. It seems primed for a buy-out to me.
Late last week, the first round of Brawl decks and Collector Boosters were shipped to big box stores in the US. Even though there is no official MSRP anymore, most of the Brawl decks were being sold for $21 with Collector Boosters clocking in at $27. The Brawl decks are a slam dunk at that price, and you should pick them up if you see them. They will be restocked at some point, but you should be able to crack and sell the singles for more right now if you want.
Because of this, it’s highly likely that the Brawl-exclusive cards are going to end up sinking like a stone over the next couple of days. Even though you can crack and flip your Brawl singles for a profit right now, I’d rather hold them until this current wave of product sells through. Conversely, I’d start targeting singles as soon as this week if you’re looking to buy a card or two for yourself.
The Collector Boosters are a bit more meh – you can buy them here at Star City Games for $30, so $27 isn’t much of a discount. Just be aware that some big box stores appear to be mispricing these because they’re a new product, so you might be able to buy them for $5-$6 if you’re incredibly lucky. If you see them for sale at your big box store without a clear price tag, I’d suggest taking them up to the counter and seeing what they ring up as. You never know!
Speaking of new products, there’s going to be a silver-bordered My Little Pony set sold on October 22nd on HasbroPulse.com. The set will have just three cards, and it’ll sell for $50. This is similar to the HASCON box set from 2017, which currently has a $150 (!) card in Grimlock, Dinobot Leader.
The My Little Pony set might not be as scarce, since it’ll be readily available online instead of at a one-shot convention, but quite a few of those HASCON boxes were sold online after the event and the My Little Pony box seems to be generating a lot more excitement so far. This might be a long-term hold, but buying a copy when they go on sale is a no-brainer. The cards are quirky, fun, and likely to remain expensive for a very long time.