Welcome back to my Financial Value of Kaladesh series! There are going to be two parts left in this series – this article and a final article on Monday of next week. In today’s article, I’m going to look at the broader implications of the Masterpiece series. I’m also going to explore the value of foil cards in general. Oh, and there will be some discussion about the newly previewed cards in Kaladesh – how about that!
Masterpieces
On Monday, Wizards of the Coast revealed the existence (and full list) of Masterpiece cards. We’ve been preselling all thirty Masterpiece cards since Tuesday morning. Mark Rosewater said that the Masterpiece cards will appear approximately every four booster boxes, or 1.5 per booster case. This represents 166 booster packs. In order to determine the average value of what a Masterpiece card adds to a booster box of Kaladesh, we’ll use the following formula:
(Summed Value of All Expeditions/30) / 4
It’s the average value of a Masterpiece card divided by four booster boxes.
Current value of the Masterpiece cards:
5x $40 – Cataclysmic Gearhulk, Combustible Gearhulk, Noxious Gearhulk, Torrential Gearhulk, Verdurous Gearhulk ($200 total)
10x $50 – Champion’s Helm, Chromatic Lantern, Cloudstone Curio, Gauntlet of Power, Hangarback Walker, Lightning Greaves, Mind’s Eye, Rings of Brighthearth, Sculpting Steel, Static Orb ($500 total)
2x $60 – Scroll Rack and Solemn Simulacrum ($120 total)
1x $70 – Steel Overseer ($70 total)
2x $80 – Chrome Mox and Painter’s Servant ($160 total)
1x $100 – Lotus Petal ($100 total)
3x $120 – Aether Vial, Sword of Feast and Famine, Sword of Light and Shadow ($360 total)
3x $150 – Crucible of Worlds, Sol Ring, Sword of Fire and Ice ($450 total)
1x $180 – Mox Opal ($180 total)
2x $200 – Mana Crypt and Mana Vault ($400 total)
Total value: $2540
Average Value of a Masterpiece card: $84.66
Average Value added to a box of Kaladesh: $21.16
So here are some thoughts about the Masterpiece Series in general!
1) The variance in value on these cards is pretty wide. With Gearhulks starting at $40 and Mana Crypt / Mana Vault landing at $200, there’s no real assurance that you’re getting anywhere close to that $21.16 in potential value from a box of Kaladesh. Twenty of the 30 cards are under $100 (and seventeen out of the 30 are in the $40-$60 range), so I’d feel more comfortable saying that the median value ($60) is a lot safer to count as the value for adding to a box. In this case, we’re looking at a still-healthy $15 added in value per box of Kaladesh.
2) Expeditions absolutely drove down the value of rares (and mythics) for Zendikar block. I’d expect a similar devaluation of Kaladesh rares/mythics as people try to open packs to get Masterpiece Series cards. The extra amount of Kaladesh that is likely to be opened (since sales keep going up) is offset by the larger number of Inventions in this set (30) versus Expeditions in Battle for Zendikar (25).
The value of foils has been in the decline over the past few years. This applies to foils that are in Standard-legal (at the time) sets, and not older foils. This is very important to note! It used to be the case that the average value of a good foil was approximately 2x the value of the non-foil equivalent card. These days, it’s closer to 1.5x the value. Why the change?
The demand on foils has always been disproportionately low to the supply of foils. I’ve talked about this many times over the years, so I’ll refer back to one of my previous articles: Fifteen Fun Facts About Foils! The relevant passage:
By every discussion that I’ve had with Pete Hoefling (the owner of StarCityGames.com), and other people who deal in Magic, foil cards are probably relatively underpriced compared to scarcity. To get a playset of foil Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker (remember, statistically we’re talking 1 in 2880 for a foil playset of any given card), you’re looking at 8640 booster packs of product, or 240 booster boxes! … At $80 a box, you’re looking at $19,200 worth of boxes!
Mythic rares appear every eight packs, so you’d open a regular Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker about once every 80 packs (1/80 shot). Foil mythic rares, as stated above, are once every 216 packs, so with ten mythic rares in the set, you’d need 2160 packs (1/2160 shot). This makes a foil Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker 27 times rarer than a non-foil Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker.
As I stated in my last article, there are 121 cards on a Magic print sheet. This means that for rares/mythics, you have two each of the 53 rares and one each of the fifteen mythics on that print sheet. Assuming a perfect distribution (you buy 121 packs and get all 121 rares and mythics from that print sheet), you’d open a mythic rare once every 121 packs.
I’ll use Cataclysmic Gearhulk as our example. Let’s look at the odds here:
Non-Foil: One every 121 packs (one every 3.36 boxes)
Regular Foil: One every 96 boxes (approximately 1.25 mythic/rare foil per box)
Masterpiece Foil: One every 120 boxes (approximately one Masterpiece card per four boxes)
And the prices on Cataclysmic Gearhulk:
Non-Foil: $8
Regular Foil: $15-$20 (not yet priced, but it’ll start in this range)
Masterpiece Foil: $40
Let me put this in perspective: a Masterpiece Cataclysmic Gearhulk is 35 times rarer than a non-foil Cataclysmic Gearhulk but is only five times the price. A regular foil Cataclysmic Gearhulk is 28 times rarer than a non-foil Cataclysmic Gearhulk, but is only two to two-and-a-half times the price. There’s a huge disparity between rarity and value here, and it can be explained simply by the lack of demand on foils – the number of people who want or care about foils is extremely disproportionate to the supply at this point!
So back to the original premise. Wizards of the Coast has said that Magic has been doing extremely well. Hasbro quarterly stockholder meetings support this – Magic has undergone a significant growth since the release of M10 (seven years ago!), and the amount of product sold at each set release now is a multiple higher than it was that seven years ago.
If foils were disproportionately cheap versus their rarity back when I wrote my first foil article (for Conflux, also released in 2009), the problem could only get worse as more packs have are opened every release! I think that there is a very real possibility that the majority of foils (even the good ones) will have virtually no value over the non-premium versions in the very near future; the exceptions will be foils that crossover to Legacy/Vintage play (these players have more demand for foil cards), but the subset of cards affected by this is maybe five to ten cards a set, tops?
The Masterpiece Series is a way for Wizards to re-insert a sense of excitement and demand for premium cards in their booster packs. I’d even go so far as to say that there is negative value for Magic to having regular foils as a sales driver in booster Packs!
Why is this? It’s pretty clear that the demand for Standard-format booster pack foils continues to bottom out/decline. At the same time, there are several products and programs that Wizards uses foils for that would benefit greatly by a higher scarcity of foils! Imagine this scenario:
1) Wizards of the Coast discontinues printing foil cards in booster packs, except for Masterpiece Series cards.
2) Wizards of the Coast continues to print foil, date-stamped versions of all of the rares and mythics in a set for Prerelease kits.
3) FNM continues to feature foil versions of key common and uncommon cards in Standard-legal sets.
I’d argue that the increase in demand for #2 and #3 would far outstrip any negative effects of foils coming out of booster Packs. This would also decrease costs for Wizards (no more seeding/printing foil sheets for regular Magic sets), and restore the value that foil cards have to players, as the supply would drastically reduce – making them have some value again against non-foil versions of those cards.
Okay, that’s enough about foils for now. Let’s talk cards!
Authority of the Consuls (Started at $1, currently $1): A welcome sideboard card in Modern should Splinter Twin ever reoccur in the format. It also shuts down any other combos that require creatures to enter the battlefield untapped (Sneak Attack, Elves). It probably won’t see maindeck play (it’s worse in Standard than Blind Obedience was), but it does have Constructed applications in older formats, making me believe it has potential to rise above bulk at some point.
Bomat Courier (Started at $1, currently at $2.50): I don’t think that this will stay at $2.50, but it is a viable option for Red Burn decks in Legacy – the ones like this one that run nineteen one-drop spells, eight free/cheat spells, and can likely have Bomat Courier draw three cards. Discarding your hand doesn’t matter if your hand is either empty or all lands, and you can likely cast everything you draw off the Courier immediately.
Combustible Gearhulk (Started at $5, currently at $6): This is one of the rare playable “punisher mechanic” cards. There’s talk about it being in Sneak and Show in Legacy, so it has some cross-format appeal. It’s also a huge body no matter what (six for a 6/6 first striker), so I think that Combustible Gearhulk will make the grade into Standard and potentially Modern as a “fair” card and as a “cheat/free” card in Legacy (even as a one-of).
Cultivator’s Caravan (Started at $2, currently at $2): I think Vehicles are being undervalued as a whole in this set, so just file this one under “I think people are going to really flock towards Vehicle decks in Standard once they see how over-the-curve most of these are.”
Dovin Baan (Started at $20, currently at $20): Almost directly comparable to Kiora, the Crashing Wave. Kiora started at $25, stayed at around $15-$20 for the first year it was in Standard, and then dropped to the $6-$8 range the rest of the time it was Standard-legal. No reason to think Dovin Baan will have any different of a trajectory.
Dynavolt Tower (Started at $1, currently at $1): I think this is likely to stay at bulk price, but do keep in mind it’s a repeatable Lightning Bolt in a set where it looks easy to generate Energy if that’s what you really want to do. I think this could be a real sleeper card, because I can see it being activated three or four times a game in a devoted Energy-producing deck, and that’s essentially multiple Lightning Bolt value out of one card.
Metalwork Colossus (Started at $1, currently at $1): Another card that is likely to stay at bulk price, but you should never discount creatures which have usable built-in mana reduction abilities. Metalwork Colossus works fantastically with Vehicles (they reduce its cost, and it can Crew pretty much any Vehicle the turn it comes down). I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think we’ll see a Standard deck that ramps turn 4 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship; Lightning Bolts an opposing creature; andthen drops Metalwork Colossus on turn 5 (using it to swing for six with Skysovereign, plus Lightning Bolting another creature).
Midnight Oil (Started at $1, currently at $1): It took a little while for Underworld Connections to pick up in Standard. It eventually settled in the $2-$3 range, a lot on the back of the power of Devotion. This is better than Underworld Connections aside from Devotion decks – it doesn’t cost you mana past the first turn, you always draw two cards, and you don’t lose life using it (at least, not unless you discard!). The best comparison I would draw on this card is that it’s an improved Grafted Skullcap for black only. Remember – removing counters and drawing a card is an effect, not a payment! Even if there are no counters left on Midnight Oil, you still draw an extra card a turn.
Scrapheap Scrounger (Started at $3, currently at $3): I’ll say for Scrapheap Scrounger what I said for Prized Amalgam – pick them up now. They are going to be good in multiple formats and it’s only going to go up long-term. The fact that this makes Prized Amalagam (which is now in the $5-$6 range) even better is a great argument for picking these up before they go up in value.
Smuggler’s Copter (Started at $1, currently at $4): Everything about this card is good – it’s a Looter il-Kor on both attacking and blocking, has evasion, and can be powered by tokens – plus it’s a 3/3 for two mana. Again – Vehicles are really, really good.
Toolcraft Exemplar (Started at $3, currently at $3): Legacy-playable in Aether Vial decks. It’ll almost always be a 3/2 creature on the attack, and honestly, if it never gets first strike, you’re still way, way ahead on the curve by getting a 3/2 offensive creature for two mana. Another card that should cross over a lot to Modern, and a little to Legacy.
Bulk Rares ($1 or less, not likely to go up in value)
Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter
Hey, and now it’s box value formula time!
Rares ($2+)
Animation Module: $2
Blooming Marsh: $6
Bomat Courier: $2.50
Cultivator’s Caravan: $2
Ghirapur Orrery: $2
Inventors’ Fair: $2
Kambal, Consul of Allocation: $2.50
Panharmonicon: $3
Smuggler’s Copter: $4
Spirebluf Canal: $7
Rare Total: $61
Mythics ($5+)
Chandra, Torch of Defiance: $60
Dovin Baan: $20
Nissa, Vital Force: $25
Noxious Gearhulk: $6
Rashmi, Eternities Crafter: $8
Saheeli Rai: $25
Skysovereign, Consul Flagship: $6
Verdurous Gearhulk: $15
Mythic Total: $203
2R ($122) + 1M ($203) = $325
$325 / 121 = $2.68 per rare/mythic/pack average.
Masterpiece Series cards add $15 in box value (median price, as discussed above), so the current average value of a Kaladesh box is approximately $111.48. There should be no mythics and seven rares left in this set that have not yet been revealed. See you all on Monday of next week!