Breaking Down Mythic Championship VII’s Top 8 Decks And What Comes Next

Throne of Eldraine‘s arrival to Standard lead to a format dominated by Simic ramp decks and Simic flash decks. Some were built around Field of the Dead and some were not. At that point, Wizards of the Coast banned Field of the Dead.

As some feared, this format was also dominated by the same things, except now without Field of the Dead decks. After the most homogeneous Mythic Championship ever (a record that will probably hold for Mythic Championships), WotC dropped three more bans on the format.

Yeah, banning cards is a messy business. Still, it’s better that they took a strong position, especially since we appear to have ended up in the part of the range that involves Simic continuing to be super-resilient. While initial online events appeared to have their pace set by Jeskai Fires decks, followed by Jund Sacrifice, Golgari Adventure, and various Knights decks, it appears it was only a matter of time (and incentive) before some of the best deck-builders and deck-tuners in the world figured out the necessary adjustments to bring Simic back to tippity-top Tier 1, including taking half of the Top 8 spots at this past weekend’s Mythic Championship VII.

This may sound alarming at first blush, but there’s more to the story. First of all, this deck was nowhere near as popular or dominant, and now that it’s a known quantity, there are adjustments players can make. Second of all, this tournament featured just 67 players, 32 of which are MPL. When three of the best players team together and all do well with the same deck, there is some amount of selection bias; =some amount of the deck’s win rate is propped up by higher average pilot skill.

Regardless, this format was more diverse than before, and hopefully we are only just starting to see the beginning of the evolution of the format, as players adjust to last week’s tech. For starters, here’s the Simic Flash deck in question that Seth Manfield, Brad Nelson, and Javier Dominguez all piloted to a Top 8 finish:

Brad, Seth, and Javier all played basically identical lists, with Javier playing a second Kenrith’s Transformation in the sideboard instead of the Aether Gust.

Oko really was providing some much-needed utility against problematic threats (and not just a complete rate-monster). Kenrith’s Transformation is obviously not in the same ZIP code as Oko in terms of rate; however, you could do a lot worse than a two-mana cantrip, especially when you’re talking about a color combination traditionally pretty near the bottom of the list for quality removal.

With fifteen counterspells maindeck, there’s just nobody in the format that’s going to have more permission. Aether Gust is a card we’ve been talking about a lot since the bans, as there’s just not really many (any) viable decks where it’s dead, and early-game interaction is much appreciated.

The rest of these counterspells are all about exploiting the lack of fast aggro in the format. The tempo-based threats they protect exploit the lack of control in the format. With next to zero strategies outside the midrange space, the format was ripe for a tempo-based strategy to capitalize on it.

That term is frequently misunderstood, but all it means is that this strategy seeks to temporarily delay opponents until it can get something on the battlefield that can build an advantage every turn, or at least further an attack, and then delay opponents from stopping it, hopefully building enough advantage to make up for the resources used to do all this delaying. The key is the trading of resources to gain temporary advantages that it can combine with threats that attempt to leverage this extra time to build other advantages, whether in damage or material, such as extra cards.

This is in contrast to aggro, which tries to win the game before the opposing player can execute their gameplan, or control, which seeks to neutralize opposing threats long enough to reach a position where the control deck can sacrifice tempo to build long-term advantages. One way to think of the difference between tempo decks and control decks is with regards to how much they are built on building and nursing an advantage versus stopping opposing attempts to build advantages.

As a reminder, midrange decks tend to play aggro against control and control against aggro (that’s the range they are the middle of). Combo decks can take many forms, sometimes assuming characteristics of one or more of the other primary strategies; however, they are generally most loudly about their redefining the rules of engagement and what the objective of the game is. While aggro decks win before opponents can execute their game plan and control decks stop other people from executing their gameplan, combo decks are about executing their gameplan as quickly, reliably, and effectively as possible. 

Somewhat similarly, ramp decks are also about executing their gameplan; however, they are often more focused on being reliable than quick, and they are generally more aligned with traditional advantages that lead players to win games (such as powerful permanents, dealing damage, and/or card advantage), whereas combo decks are often more about assembling particular combinations of cards.

Nightpack Ambusher is such a defining card in this strategy. It’s not the sort of card that actually “establishes control” against most opposing strategies. Rather, it’s a card that can sneak when the timing is right, and then start building a modest advantage every turn you can keep things from getting too out of hand. Each of those counterspells aspires to delay bad stuff from happening for a turn. If you’ve got a Nightpack Ambusher going, you might not need to delay things very many turns before the extra 3/3 a turn really adds up.

What happened to Brineborn Cutthroat?

Part of what makes Seth, Brad, and Javier’s list such a breakthrough is the use of Paradise Druid instead of Brineborn Cutthroat. While it’s “thematic” to a flash deck, it doesn’t actually build an advantage each turn it’s on the battlefield, other than potentially dealing some damage. It also doesn’t really pressure opponents into needing to play into your permission, if you’re not playing a lot of proactive instants that help grow it, without opponents cooperating. By contrast, it can be a much more threatening Izzet card, since those decks have more instant-speed card draw and burn spells, both growing the Cutthroat and pressuring the opposing life total.

Instead of little advantages, Seth, Brad, and Javier built their strategy around individual threats that could build incremental advantage, yet could also potentially win a game on their own. In addition to the Nightpack Ambusher, they relied on Nissa, Who Shakes the World and Hydroid Krasis to get ahead, two of the strongest cards in the format.

Part of what makes this specific execution really interesting is the fusing of tempo and ramp, two strategies that are not naturally particularly harmonious. The key to being able to blend them, in this special case, is the overwhelming power of Nissa and Krasis, combined with the giant blind spots in the format they were able to identify.

You see, it’s not that unusual to primarily rely on a mere ten to twelve major sources of advantage. Faeries used Bitterblossom, Ancestral Vision, and Mistbind Clique. The recent Mono-Blue Aggro decks used Curious Obsession, Tempest Djinn, and perhaps some amount of Spectral Sailor or Mu Yanling, Sky Dancer.

While the number of advantage generators isn’t anything unusual, the use of 26 land, along with four Growth Spirals and three Paradise Druids, certainly is. Why so much mana? 

Well, for starters, Once Upon a Time being banned means we’re going to need more mana, and Growth Spiral and Paradise Druid were already the best options, assuming you’ve decided you don’t want Gilded Goose.

Gilded Goose is more about a super-early burst with some late-game potential flexibility. It gives you a little acceleration early, but isn’t reliable. It gives you some incremental value later, but isn’t game-winning. By contrast, the above list wants reliable acceleration early, asking its accelerator to make multiple mana over the course of the first four turns. It also wants to emphasize game-winning bombs, major advantages that can win on their own, making it less inclined to invest in the incremental value of buying extra Food over time.

With 33 mana sources and cheap cantrips, this deck is really functioning as a kind of ramp deck that happens to use counterspells as its primary form of ramping. While a traditional ramp deck invests its early turns into making more resources it can use for big threats, this list uses cheap permission to buy it enough time to play more resources that can be used for big threats. With just two Aether Gusts and two Brazen Borrowers, it’s got next to nothing in the way of defense for problematic permanents, at least Game 1. Instead, it just hopes Nightpack Ambusher; Nissa, Who Shakes the World; or Hydroid Krasis can overpower whatever threat happens to stick. Really, though, this deck is preying on the lack of aggressive threats in the format in general. When most people barely have fifteen real threats in their deck, sometimes, you really can just hang out, not dying, and then ride a Nissa to victory.

Andrea Mengucci (who, like Seth, Brad, and Javier, has had a very impressive year) piloted a more traditional Simic Ramp deck to his Top 8 finish, albeit with the slightly off-center, almost throwback, Elementals sub-theme:

With sixteen potentially game-winning threats, this list doesn’t have much more than the Simic Flash deck above; however, the ways both decks try to get into a position to cast those powerful threats are basically opposites. While the Flash list has just seven accelerators, instead using its fifteen permission spells and a couple of bounce spells to buy time, Andrea’s list has 28 land plus fourteen accelerators, not to mention four of the extra threats serving as even more acceleration.

While Seth, Brad, and Javier’s list was all about trying to delay opposing threats in order to buy enough time to drop a game-winning one, Andrea’s list is basically all proactive fuel: cards that make mana and cards that turn mana into extra cards, which can then be used to make even more mana and draw even more extra cards.

To understand Quasiduplicate, the most important card to consider is Risen Reef. Yeah, you can target a Cavalier of Thorns, and that’s cool, but it’s the Reef that really pulls the room together. While the first Risen Reef gives you one extra card, the second one gives you two extra cards, while greatly increasing the chances of getting ahead on mana, and ensuring any Leafkin Druids are real advantages and Cavalier of Thorns is backbreaking.

A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you’re talking real money.

Everett Dirksen*

Jump-started Quasiduplicate on a Risen Reef and now you’re talking about real card draw!

While Simic may have put the most players into the Top 8, it was Piotr Glogowski at the helm of Jund Sacrifice that stole the show. With a win of his MPL Split, Glogowski has the benefit of not having to play Day 1 of competition before beginning his unstoppable run, 5-0’ing Day 2 before sweeping Day 3.

Jund Sacrifice takes the Cauldron Familiar / Witch’s Oven / Trail of Crumbs combo to a pretty absurd conclusion.

For starters, Mayhem Devil and Korvold, Fae-Cursed King give us even more payoffs for our engine when we get Cat Food going, bouncing in and out of the battlefield.

Again we see smart metagaming allowing for the exploitation of a lack of early aggression. Massacre Girl can do so much anyway, potentially winning singlehandedly. Besides, Murderous Rider and Thrashing Brontodon aren’t nothing.

Instead of a bunch of some other sub-theme, like Adventures, planeswalkers, or interaction, Głogowski actually adopted a little bit of a ramp gameplan himself. While Gilded Goose is to be expected in a Trail of Crumbs deck, Beanstalk Giant is a little bit of an interesting replacement for Once Upon a Time.

While Beanstalk Giant can provide a two-for-one, it’s really about getting Casualties of War online faster. In head-to-head semi-mirrors involving Casualties of War, you really want to be the first to cast one.

This card is extremely strong, is well-positioned in the format, and kind of caps how big you can really aspire to be, as there’s really nothing bigger that matches up well against it. It may seem extreme to play four copies, but I’m a big fan and would play five if I could.

Miguel da Cruz Simões rocked a similar list, though with a couple of District Guides and a Midnight Reaper in lieu of Beanstalk Giant. He also ran three Wicked Wolves and a Vraska, Golgari Queen instead of the two Murderous Riders and two maindeck Massacre Girls.

While this more traditional approach is definitely solid, I prefer the more ambitious, “crazier” dedication to Casualties of War in Głogowski’s list.

While it would appear that Simic Flash/Ramp is getting the most initial traction on Arena, I think Jund Sacrifice is the real deal as will also prove to help shape next week’s metagame, both as one of the best decks and as an important informer of what kinds of cards and strategies are playable.

While I think Edgewall Innkeeper is an incredible card, I’m concerned that the Golgari Adventures deck doesn’t have much more room to grow. You’ve got to dedicate so many slots to Adventure cards to really get your money, and there just aren’t that many to choose from. As mentioned above, I’m also super into Casualties of War, and the Adventures decks are generally not the best suited to playing that kind of a game. That said, they aren’t completely off it, as evidenced by Chris Kvartek’s sideboarded copies:

The use of a full playset of Vivien, Arkbow Rangers and three copies of The Great Henge is an interesting direction that might suggest we haven’t seen all there is to Adventures decks after all.

The extra card advantage and incremental battlefield advantage is interesting alongside Rotting Regisaur, but they do both make it more than it would be on its own. Unlike previous builds relying on cards like Massacre Girl or Nissa, Who Shakes the World, this list hits from these less common angles, taking advantage of how little removal is getting played in the format. Personally, I prefer Jund Sacrifice to Golgari, but Kvartek’s innovative take on the archetype has me wanting to reconsider the strategy, at least giving it another shot.

Finally, with his 73rd Top 8, Paulo Vitor Damo Da Rosa just kind of flexes on everyone with a fairly stock, albeit well-tuned Fires of Invention deck.

Everyone was sort of targeting this deck going into the tournament, but it’s a testament to PV’s skill that he still managed to slog through the hate and put up another big finish with such a known element. It’s not that the strategy is bad, by any stretch of the imagination. Much the opposite, it’s quite good and was popular for a reason.

With so much focus likely to shift towards fighting Simic and Jund, Fires of Invention might be poised to regain a little ground (assuming they’ve got a plan for Casualties of War). Personally, I know I’m interested in working with Teferi in the weeks to come. That’s a pretty solid card against Simic, and it’s not like it’s a bad card in general.

Maybe there’s finally space for a control deck on the horizon, like Esper or something, but I’m just not sure there are the tools for fighting both Simic and Jund without leaving yourself wide open against the next wave of Knight decks that are sure to come.

Embercleave is too strong to not find a home, and even if this isn’t a great format for aggro, these most recent decks have cut removal and early defense to such a laughable degree, it’s only a matter of time before someone strikes back with some sort of Embercleave fast aggro deck.

* One of the most famous misattributed quotes; Everett Dirksen never actually said this. He talked about a few billion here, a few billion there, on several occasions, but never actually said the part about “pretty soon, talking real money.” Allegedly, he was asked about this on a plane once, and said he confirmed that he never said that and that a newspaper guy misquoted him; however, that he thought it sounded so good, he never bothered denying it.