Spoiler: Eye of Ugin or Eldrazi Temple is getting banned. I would guess and recommend Eye of Ugin, but I guess we will see, won’t we?
The real question isn’t whether the Eldrazi will dominate. Because they will. And to an absurd degree. The real question is which GP will be the most-dominated Day 2 of any Modern GP ever. Hell, one of those GPs won’t even be the second all-time!
Wait, this means you can just play an anti-Eldrazi deck and clean up, right? Nassif on speed dial and all that? Right?
Sorry you gotta find out this way, but sometimes the bad guys win. Sometimes, no matter how many people want to fight the good fight, the bad guys have enough power to overcome the will of everyone else put together, take the prize, destroy the lives of their enemies, and pardon everyone they cut a deal with along the way.
I’m playing Eldrazi in Detroit. Let me just make that clear.
Figuring out which Eldrazi deck to play, or if we should just brew our own?
Now that’s an interesting question.
See, it’s not that there isn’t an interesting an evolving metagame. Because there is. You can play any Eldrazi deck you want!
But don’t take my word for it. Let’s look at the results from the first big Modern event since Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch, where Eldrazi strategies as a whole had a better win rate than any archetype ever that was at least 8% of the PT field (pretty sure this is true, but if I’m wrong, I’d love to be corrected).
After a long day of battles, just 65 of the 725 competitors managed to hit records of 7-2 or better and advance to Day 2. Here’s the Day 2 metagame of #SCGLOU:
#SCGLOU Modern Metagame
|
Archetype |
Day 2 Metagame |
|
Eldrazi |
47.7% |
|
Affinity |
7.7% |
|
Infect |
6.2% |
|
Merfolk |
6.2% |
|
Blue Control |
6.2% |
|
Abzan Company |
4.6% |
|
Jund |
4.6% |
|
Burn |
3.1% |
|
3.1% |
|
|
Tron |
3.1% |
|
Misc* |
7.7% |
*Misc = Skred Red, Kiki-Chord, Ad Nauseam, Lantern Control, R/G Ponza
Ummm, what?
It’ll be interesting to see what numbers the three Modern GPs hit for Eldrazi decks in Day 2. No matter how broken anything has ever gotten, I’m not sure a strategy has ever been one-third of Day 2 of a Modern GP. I’m guessing Eldrazi will be one-third of all three this time, however.
As lopsided as that above chart is, it takes on a whole new context when you put the Top 32 metagame alongside.
#SCGLOU Modern Metagame
|
Archetype |
Day 2 Metagame |
Top 32 Metagame |
|
Eldrazi |
47.7% |
62.5% |
|
Affinity |
7.7% |
15.6% |
|
Infect |
6.2% |
0.0% |
|
Merfolk |
6.2% |
3.1% |
|
Blue Control |
6.2% |
6.3% |
|
Abzan Company |
4.6% |
0.0% |
|
Jund |
4.6% |
3.1% |
|
Burn |
3.1% |
0.0% |
|
3.1% |
3.1% |
|
|
Tron |
3.1% |
0.0% |
|
Misc* |
7.7% |
6.3% |
When have you ever seen a format where the two most popular strategies are the only ones with winning records?
As obliterated as this format is, there is still a dynamic metagame, in a way that is starting to resemble when the best Legacy combo deck was Survival-Reanimator, the best aggro deck Survival-Beatdown, and the best control deck Survival with Force of Will. Even though the Eldrazi decks are all basically the same core strategy, there is variation among them. Which Eldrazi deck is best?!
Here’s a look at the Top 32 metagame with the Eldrazi decks broken down into their own categories:
Top 32 Metagame
|
Archetype |
Top 32 Metagame |
|
U/W Eldrazi |
34.4% |
|
Affinity |
15.6% |
|
Bant Eldrazi |
9.4% |
|
U/R Eldrazi |
6.3% |
|
R/G Eldrazi |
6.3% |
|
Misc* |
28.1% |
*Misc = Colorless Eldrazi, Eldrazi Tron, Merfolk, Kiki-Chord, Jund, Scapeshift, Blue Moon, Skred Red, and U/W Control
If these numbers persist, U/W Eldrazi is clearly way beyond too good. If a Modern deck is 20% of Day 2 for prolonged periods, it’s probably got a ban headed its way. A third of the field, though? That is just nuts.
U/W Eldrazi is just too much. It puts massive pressure on the other four major archetypes:
? Affinity
? Bant Eldrazi
? U/R Eldrazi
? R/G Eldrazi
And that’s to say nothing of how hard it is for fringe decks like Colorless Eldrazi or rogue brews like Eldrazi Tron!
I’d like to take a look at the new builds of Eldrazi decks (we call them “decks”); but first, for context, here’s the metagame for the other 33 players in Day 2, the bottom half:
|
Archetype |
Day 2 – Bottom Half |
|
U/W Eldrazi |
15.2% |
|
R/G Eldrazi |
12.1% |
|
Infect |
12.1% |
|
Merfolk |
9.1% |
|
Abzan Company |
9.1% |
|
Jund |
6.1% |
|
Burn |
6.1% |
|
Tron |
6.1% |
|
Affinity |
0.0% |
|
Misc* |
18.2% |
*Misc = Temur Eldrazi, Bant Eldrazi, Scapeshift, Ad Nauseam, Lantern Control, R/G Ponza
See! Look at how diverse and balanced some of the metagame is!
Some quick observations:
? U/W Eldrazi put eleven people in the top half, and just five in the bottom half.
? R/G Eldrazi was the only major Eldrazi archetype to underperform on Day 2 (which makes sense, since it’s typically behind against other Eldrazi decks).
? Infect did horrendously on Day 2, and despite being the third most-popular macro-archetype, it failed to cash.
? Every single Affinity player ended up in the top half!
So, you’re saying this is a two-deck format, after all?
Yeah, I’m sure the Affinity decks will hold up nicely in a two-deck format!
Still, credit where credit is due. Affinity did great at the Pro Tour and overperformed at every step of the way this past weekend, including taking home the trophy. Here’s the winner’s list:
Creatures (25)
- 4 Arcbound Ravager
- 4 Ornithopter
- 1 Master of Etherium
- 2 Steel Overseer
- 3 Memnite
- 2 Etched Champion
- 4 Signal Pest
- 1 Spellskite
- 4 Vault Skirge
Lands (17)
Spells (18)
Not a single Affinity deck ran even one Thought-Knot Seer? The headline would have worked so much better!
Austin’s deck is slanted for the realities of the world we live in. He trims things like Etched Champion (not great against Eldrazi) for maindeck Dispatches to go along with his playset of Galvanic Blasts. He also reduces his reliance on Steel Overseer because of its vulnerability to Gut Shot as well as Dismember. He also tries to steal some wins with Ensnaring Bridges out of the sideboard. Obviously, everyone is sideboarding in artifact hate, but it can win a game by itself and it even dodges Stony Silence, as does Ghirapur Aether Grid.
I’m proud of the Affinity deck. No one could be thrown into this format and be expected to come out with a winning record. They have done good work. They kept it interesting. They are providing a distraction, though some would say they are the heroes.
Okay, now that we have the playable non-Eldrazi decks out of the way, let’s dive into the Eldrazi ones. Without question, we should start with the defining deck of the format, Andrew Tenjum’s U/W Eldrazi deck that quickly gained notoriety when he 8-0’ed the Swiss of the most recent MTGO PTQ. This weekend, it was the most popular deck by a mile (more popular than all other Eldrazi decks combined, in fact), and it still overperformed dramatically, including putting multiples in the Top 8 (one of which was piloted by Tenjum himself!)
Here’s the list Andrew piloted to a Top 8 finish:
Creatures (28)
- 4 Drowner of Hope
- 4 Endless One
- 4 Eldrazi Skyspawner
- 4 Eldrazi Mimic
- 4 Eldrazi Displacer
- 4 Reality Smasher
- 4 Thought-Knot Seer
Lands (25)
Spells (7)
Sideboard
Tenjum’s list has the same Endless One, Eldrazi Mimic, Matter Reshaper, Thought-Knot Seer, and Reality Smasher package as everyone else. Like the PT-winning list, it uses blue for Drowner of Hope and Eldrazi Skyspawner as well as Stubborn Denial in the sideboard.
Drowner of Hope builds of Eldrazi beat non-Drowner of Hope builds in general. At the end of the day, drawing a good curve and some Eldrazi lands matters most, and these decks have so much overlap that it is very easy for any one game of Eldrazi semi-mirrors to go either way.
The Drowner has a big impact on the battlefield and can create major tempo swings that radically control the battlefield. Remember, you don’t have to discard a card to tap the Reality Smasher with Drowner of Hope!
Eldrazi Skyspawner gives the deck more fast beatdown that capitalizes on the Eldrazi lands. Flying is invaluable for racing in the semi-mirror and the Eldrazi Scions are crucial for combating Blood Moon (as are Flooded Strands, which can fetch Island or Plains and let you still play a real game despite no Wastes).
The highest-finishing Eldrazi player was actually finalist Kent Ketter, piloting a nearly identical list, save for a Vesuva in place of the third Rest in Peace in the sideboard.
Tenjum’s twist is replacing Tao’s Eldrazi Obligators and Vile Aggregates with Eldrazi Displacer and Path to Exile, a move I am 100% a fan of for where the metagame has gone.
Eldrazi Displacer is just absurd, now that Lightning Bolt is in fewer than 10% of decks, particularly at the top. It’s another hard-hitting threat to come down on turn 2 with an Eldrazi land, but it also completely takes games over if the game goes long. It’s nice being able to pay three mana to kill an opposing Endless One, no matter how big it is.
It’s not as easy, but you can get extra chances at lands by blinking opposing Thought-Knot Seers when you are empty-handed. Targeting other opposing creatures is still effectively like Drowner of Hope copies five through eight.
However, when combined with Drowner of Hope, you start make two to four tokens (and an Icy Manipulator or two) every turn until the game ends (which usually doesn’t take long). Even if they try to get out of it, you can always sacrifice three Scions to blink the Drowner again, protecting it from Dismember or other removal (which of course, means they have to target the Displacer, and they probably can’t beat the Drowner, anyway).
Drowner is certainly not the only creature worth blinking, with the Skyspawner as an additional token-maker and Thought-Knot Seer gaining the ability to soft-lock people by hitting all their draw steps (which is good against sorcery-speed trumps like Damnation). You can also pump your Eldrazi Mimic by blinking one of your other Eldrazi that was blocked and make all sorts of fancy plays like that. Finally, if you get a second Eldrazi Displacer onto the battlefield, they can protect each other as long as you always have an emergency stash of mana.
Path to Exile is just an amazing Magic card anyway, and by overloading on Paths and Dismembers, Tenjum’s build has more ways to recoup tempo for those games where your opponent draws more Eldrazi lands than you (or is on the play).
Oh yeah, white also gives you the best sideboard cards in the format.
Tenjum’s list isn’t the only white Eldrazi deck to show up, however. A Bant variant has emerged, splashing green into the U/W Eldrazi shell for World Breaker. It’s an easy splash anyway, since Tenjum is already playing Cavern of Souls, Flooded Strand, and “off-color” Caves of Koilos.
Creatures (29)
- 2 Drowner of Hope
- 4 Endless One
- 4 Eldrazi Skyspawner
- 2 World Breaker
- 1 Endbringer
- 4 Eldrazi Mimic
- 4 Eldrazi Displacer
- 4 Reality Smasher
- 4 Thought-Knot Seer
Lands (25)
Spells (6)
Sideboard
Creatures (28)
- 3 Drowner of Hope
- 4 Endless One
- 4 Eldrazi Skyspawner
- 1 World Breaker
- 4 Eldrazi Mimic
- 4 Eldrazi Displacer
- 4 Reality Smasher
- 4 Thought-Knot Seer
Lands (25)
Spells (7)
Sideboard
Neither list really does it for me, though. I guess I’d have to see how big of a deal the World Breakers turn out to be, but I kind of like Drowner of Hope better here anyway (particularly now that everyone has Path to Exiles for days).
By the way, notice just how many anti-artifact cards these decks have. Nobody is confused about the need for Affinity hate, and it’s only going to increase in intensity.
The third most-played Eldrazi deck was just the Team East West Bowl PT-winning deck, sometimes with no change from the way Jiachen Tao and Andrew Brown played it in Atlanta.
Creatures (33)
- 4 Drowner of Hope
- 4 Endless One
- 4 Eldrazi Skyspawner
- 2 Ruination Guide
- 4 Vile Aggregate
- 4 Eldrazi Mimic
- 3 Eldrazi Obligator
- 4 Reality Smasher
- 4 Thought-Knot Seer
Lands (24)
Spells (3)
If this version is going to survive, it needs to evolve. It needs more and better weapons against Affinity, and it needs more ways to win creature wars, since it’s down Path and Displacer. Personally, I think it’s a lost cause, and while it was the most dominant build at the PT (being particularly effective against the CFB/FtF colorless build), the format has moved on.
Rounding out our gauntlet, we have R/G Eldrazi, a deck that has a non-trivial amount of Tron genes in it:
Creatures (22)
Lands (24)
Spells (14)
Normally, these Eldrazi decks are going to have Eldrazi Temple or Eye of Ugin in their opening hand 65% of the time, not counting mulligans (which dramatically increase the odds, since we mulligan aggressively to them).
Ancient Stirrings represents a major consistency boost, letting us find Eldrazi Temple or Eye of Ugin by the first turn about 74% of the time (which means fewer mulligans, since we can keep a ton of Ancient Stirrings hands).
Frankly, I am kind of surprised the Bant decks go to the trouble of playing green but don’t run Ancient Stirrings. Here, they help us stack multiple Eldrazi lands so much that we can actually play a pretty mean “Tron” game, including running four maindeck World Breakers as “fatties” that also trigger the Kozilek’s Returns (that Ancient Stirrings happens to be able to find).
This build is particularly well-suited for beating up on Affinity, thanks to the instant-speed sweeping of Kozilek’s Return and overloading on Ancient Grudges, Natural State, and World Breaker (not to mention actual Lightning Bolt).
Sadly, it loses to U/W Eldrazi in the head-to-head, making it a tough place to be at the moment, at least without some major innovation. Kozilek’s Return is a great plan, but it is hard to set the whole thing up in time.
While those were the five most successful decks at #SCGLOU, it’s worth taking a quick look at a couple of other Eldrazi decks, helping round out the strategy. First, the CFB/FtF Colorless Eldrazi aggro deck:
Creatures (26)
- 4 Simian Spirit Guide
- 2 Spellskite
- 4 Endless One
- 4 Eldrazi Mimic
- 4 Reality Smasher
- 4 Thought-Knot Seer
- 4 Matter Reshaper
Lands (23)
Spells (11)
Sideboard
Fast, deadly, consistent, powerful, the colorless build is ideal for Old World metagames but isn’t optimized for Drowner of Hope fights, and Chalice of the Void isn’t as good as it used to be. That we don’t have many reliable sources of colored mana greatly limits us in how much we can evolve the archetype.
That said, Zach Voss actually made some major advances to the Colorless Eldrazi strategy, so much so that we probably need to give it a category all its own:
Creatures (23)
- 4 Oblivion Sower
- 2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
- 4 Endless One
- 1 Kozilek, the Great Distortion
- 4 Eldrazi Mimic
- 4 Reality Smasher
- 4 Thought-Knot Seer
Lands (24)
Spells (13)
I don’t know if I can get into zero Matter Reshaper, but this build is definitely the Eldrazi deck that goes the biggest. Both Kozilek, the Great Distortion and Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger are hanging out at the top of the curve, and Oblivion Sower helps us get there (and particularly loves this new world with so few fetchlands and so many Eldrazi lands). Let me tell you, Eldrazi Mimic loves its two big siblings.
Spatial Contortion is actually very clever here. Between it and Dismember, Voss is actually pretty decent at keeping Eldrazi Displacer off the table. Eldrazi Temple and Eye of Ugin don’t help cheat the cost, despite what the flavor might suggest. Fortunately, two mana is not a lot to have to come up with.
All Is Dust, on the other hand, is made cheaper by both, since it is Tribal – Eldrazi and receives all the benefits. I am still not sold on the card maindeck, given just how much Eldrazi and Affinity I expect, but it is a lot cheaper and faster than Ugin (whether maindeck or sideboard).
…
While I’m really sure the Eldrazi are going to dominate the three Modern GPs, I have a feeling we haven’t even seen their final form yet.
Why not just build a deck to beat them?
Well, to begin with, the engine, the synergy is so fast and so strong, there’s kind of a cap on how good you can be against Eldrazi, even if your entire deck is built exclusively to beat them. It’s not clear if that’s even possible now, anyway, since there are so many different types of Eldrazi decks.
Besides, even if the format could actually stabilize with 80% of the field playing Eldrazi and 20% of the field playing some deck that beats some of the Eldrazi decks that are too greedy in the mirror (Affinity?), the real world will never get even close to that narrow. If you show up with a hate deck, it had better be fundamentally super-strong (Affinity?); because you are likely going to need to beat many non-Eldrazi decks on Day 1.
You’re also going to have to get past at least a couple of non-Eldrazi decks on Day 2 as well if you want to win the whole thing. Even if you were 100% against Eldrazi, you would have worse chances of winning the tournament than an Eldrazi player if you are 35% against the non-Eldrazi decks. You gotta make it out of Day 1!
While it is interesting to take a brief journey into the world of madness we currently find ourselves in, this format gets old really quickly. Most of the decks have most of the same cards. The swings from who draws Eldrazi lands is brutal. The games are decided too quickly. The games play out the same way too much. Most of the sweet cards people love to play Modern to play are not even remotely viable, since the entire format is one giant inbred abomination from hell.
Eye of Ugin is probably the one to go, as it fuels the most extreme and degenerate draws, such as multiple creatures in a turn (netting four or more mana in value) and turning Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth into a “double-land” itself (by letting the Eye of Ugin tap for mana, in addition to reducing cost). It’s also a legendary land, which makes the format even weirder and more brutal, and Eldrazi Temple is a better flavor fit.
On top of all of this, removing Eye of Ugin would take away the inevitability that these Eldrazi decks enjoy when they reach a state where all their draws are threats or mana to fuel Eye of Ugin finding more threats.
What will be the highest finishing deck at GP Detroit, besides Eldrazi or Affinity? And will it be a random one-off, or is there a new challenger waiting in the wings?
Because at the moment, the metagame has mostly crumbled to Affinity, Anti-Affinity-Eldrazi, and Anti-Eldrazi-Eldrazi. With so few enemies left to worry about, Anti-Eldrazi-Eldrazi might be able to pick up enough Affinity hate to make the format Eldrazi, Anti-Eldrazi-Eldrazi, and Anti-Anti-Eldrazi-Eldrazi.
Unless, of course, someone shows up with an ingenious fast combo deck and steals the show when everyone is looking the wrong way!
…
…
…
The deck is still getting banned the first chance WotC gets, though. I just think people are underestimating how good the deck is going to be, even after the ban…