The Extended PTQ season is upon us, and we finally have enough data to do some analysis. I break down the PTQs, online and off, as well as the MTGO tournaments that might help define the upcoming metagame. I’ll finish with some decklists that you may have overlooked.
I’ll start with the PTQ data, of course. I have Top 8 decklists from the five Online PTQs (held on January 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 14th and 17th). I also have data from the paper PTQs in Minneapolis, Seattle, Atlanta, Montreal and Indianapolis. That gives me 80 decks from PTQs.
Here’s the breakdown. I have the number of Top 8 appearances, followed by the percentage of the metagame that represents.
Fast Zoo — 13 — 16%
Tezzeret — 10 — 13%
Scapeshift — 8 — 10%
Faeries — 8 — 10%
Dark Depths — 7 — 9%
Angel Zoo — 5 — 6%
RDW — 5 — 6%
Affinity — 3 — 4%
All in Red — 3 — 4%
Death Cloud — 3 — 4%
Doran — 2 — 3%
Bant — 2 — 3%
Dredge — 2 — 3%
Martyr of Sands — 2 — 3%
Other — 7 — n/a
Some quick definitions are in order.
Fast Zoo covers the Three-Color Zoo, Domain Zoo, and other Zoo decks that do not run Baneslayer Angel. Zoo decks with Baneslayer are in the Angel Zoo category, including those that splash for Bant Charm. Decks that run a significantly higher amount of Blue — mainly for cards like Meddling Mage, Rhox War Monk and counters – are listed as Bant.
Tezzeret decks include the Thopter / Sword combo deck, whether they run no creatures, just a pair of Trinket Mages, or a mix of Mages and Kitchen Finks. The exception are Dark Depths decks that also include the Thopter / Sword combo. Those decks are classified as Dark Depths decks. (Classifying hybrids is always a pain.)
On to easier stuff. If a deck runs Scapeshift, it’s Scapeshift. Doran decks run Doran. Faeries decks have Fae and Bitterblossom. And so forth.
The PTQ results are pretty straightforward, but we really only have two weeks’ worth of data. That’s not much. To fill in, I also looked at the results form online Extended Premier Events and Daily Events. For Daily Events, which run four rounds, I only looked at decks that went 4-0. For the PEs, which are generally larger and have a playoff, I looked at the entire Top 8. That gives me another 170 decks to examine.
Here’s that breakdown:
Faeries — 26 — 15%
Scapeshift — 20 — 12%
Dark Depths — 20 — 12%
Fast Zoo — 16 — 9%
Tezzeret — 13 — 8%
Angel Zoo — 11 — 6%
Affinity — 11 — 6%
RDW — 9 — 5%
Bant — 8 — 5%
Doran — 6 — 4%
Dredge — 5 — 3%
Hypergenesis — 4 — 2%
Hive Mind — 3 — 2%
Smallpox — 2 — 1%
Sullivan Scepter Ascension — 2 — 1%
Elves — 2 — 1%
Martyr of Sands — 2 — 1%
All in Red — 1 — 1%
Living End — 1 — 1%
Other — 8 — n/a
This is just a touch more interesting. The top five archetype decks move around a bit, but they are still the same. I wondered if the fact that I included shorter tournaments had any impact, so I filtered out all the small events. Here are the decks from PE Top 8s, and those that went 4-0 in larger Daily events (large enough to have 5 undefeated decks — which should limit the number of fluke wins).
Scapeshift — 7
Fast Zoo — 6
Faeries — 5
Dark Depths — 4
Angel Zoo — 3
Dredge — 3
The biggest change is that Tezzeret decks disappear, and Angel Zoo decks appear. That’s probably not significant, however. The sample size is really small. On the other hand, the appearance of Dredge might be signification. Dredge is on the list because it put 3 people into the Top 8 of a single PE. However, that PE was just a couple days ago, so it could indicate that Dredge is coming back.
Here’s the entire data set, including PTQs, PEs and online Daily Event winners.
Faeries — 34 — 14%
Fast Zoo — 29 — 12%
Scapeshift — 28 — 11%
Dark Depths — 27 — 11%
Tezzeret — 23 — 9%
Angel Zoo — 16 — 6%
RDW — 14 — 6%
Affinity — 14 — 6%
Bant — 10 — 4%
Doran — 8 — 3%
Dredge — 7 — 3%
Hypergeniesis — 5 — 2%
All in Red — 4 — 2%
Hive Mind — 4 — 2%
Death Cloud — 3 — 1%
Sullivan Scepter Ascension. — 3 — 1%
Elves — 3 — 1%
Smallpox — 2 — 1%
Martyr of Sands — 4 — 2
%
Living End — 2 — 1%
Other — 10 — n/a
If you are wondering about the online metagame, or looking to assemble or refine your playtest gauntlet, this is where to start. Playtest against these decks — at least the first dozen or so — and playtest sideboarded. Just saying.
With this much data, we can also look at how the metagame is changing over time. I broke down the online data by weeks, and calculated the percentage of the metagame for each archetype. (Percentages work slightly better than raw numbers, because some weeks had more events, and therefore larger numbers, than other weeks.)
January 1st through Jan 7th
Faeries — 15%
Scapeshift — 12%
Angel Zoo — 10%
Dark Depths — 10%
RDW — 9%
Fast Zoo — 7%
Bant — 7%
Tezzeret — 6%
Affinity — 4%
Doran — 3%
All in Red — 3%
Death Cloud — 1%
Smallpox — 1%
Dredge — 1%
Hive Mind — 1%
Martyr of Sands — 1%
HyperG — 1%
Living End — 1%
Other — 3%
January 8th through Jan 14th
Faeries — 16%
Fast Zoo — 13%
Scapeshift — 13%
Dark Depths — 11%
Tezzeret — 10%
Affinity — 7%
Angel Zoo — 4%
RDW — 4%
Doran — 3%
Bant — 3%
Hypergenesis — 3%
Death Cloud — 2%
Dredge — 2%
Hive Mind — 2%
Sullivan Scepter Asc. — 1%
Martyr of Sands — 1%
Other — 2%
January 8th through Jan 14th
Dark Depths — 16%
Faeries — 13%
Fast Zoo — 10%
Scapeshift — 8%
Tezzeret — 8%
Affinity — 5%
Dredge — 5%
Doran — 3%
RDW — 3%
Bant — 3%
Death Cloud — 3%
Smallpox — 3%
Elves — 3%
Martyr of Sands — 3%
Angel Zoo — 2%
Sullivan Scepter Asc. — 2%
Living End — 2%
Other — 8%
Much of the metagame appears pretty static. The top decks are — for the most part — the same. However, some changes are visible. The Baneslayer Zoo decks seem to be losing ground; going from 10% of the metagame early to barely present. Maybe Kibler’s deck has had it. Dark Depths has been trending the other way, and is steadily moving up the rankings, until it finally overthrew the Fae in the final week.
I also see a lot of unusual decks appearing in the rankings — especially in the 3-1 slots. The format seems extremely diverse, so I would not be too surprised to see pretty much anything in the first couple rounds of a PTQ.
Here are a few examples.
I played against Sergio with this deck in the tournament practice room one night. I had just put together Adrian’s Scepter deck, and was trying it out — and Sergio destroyed me. I stole one game, but it was very close. The other two games were not close. I was surprised to see the deck that night, but not surprised to find it going 4-0 in a Daily Event. Mystical Teaching appears to be back.
Mystical Teachings
Sergio_Dominaria (4-0)
Extended Daily #867683 on 01/15/2010
2 Calciform Pools
1 Dreadship Reef
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
7 Island
1 Marsh Flats
2 Misty Rainforest
3 Mystic Gate
1 Plains
2 Scalding Tarn
1 Tolaria West
1 Watery Grave
1 Crovax, Ascendant Hero
1 Dralnu, Lich Lord
2 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Venser, Shaper Savant
4 Ancestral Vision
1 Condescend
3 Cryptic Command
2 Engineered Explosives
1 Extirpate
4 Mana Leak
3 Mystical Teachings
4 Path to Exile
1 Pulse of the Fields
2 Rewind
4 Spell Snare
Sideboard
2 Celestial Purge
1 Condemn
1 Crovax, Ascendant Hero
1 Day of Judgment
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Hurkyl’s Recall
1 Pulse of the Fields
1 Ravenous Trap
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Shadow of Doubt
1 Tormod’s Crypt
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Wrath of God
I knew I was in trouble when he cast Pulse of the Fields game 1.
Here’s another interesting deck. Blightning is so annoying in Standard that I have been watching for it in Extended. Here it is. I have no first-hand experience with this deck, but it might be worth testing. I suspect I will try it out. I have the cards.
Dark Burn
DanielMoura (4-0)
Extended Daily #847820
2 Blinkmoth Nexus
1 Blood Crypt
4 Great Furnace
2 Mountain
2 Mutavault
3 Scalding Tarn
4 Sulfurous Springs
4 Vault of Whispers
4 Dark Confidant
4 Goblin Guide
4 Keldon Marauders
4 Vampire Lacerator
4 Blightning
2 Burst Lightning
2 Incinerate
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Magma Jet
3 Shrapnel Blast
3 Thoughtseize
Sideboard
4 Bloodchief Ascension
4 Deathmark
4 Dragon’s Claw
3 Extirpate
Here’s another deck I wanted to feature, simply because I can’t quite figure it out. I almost listed it as a Shapeshift deck, but it does not run Shapeshift. It does run Valakut — and pairs that with Prismatic Omen. (Yes, I had to look it up, too, and I wrote a preview article on the card.) Prismatic Omen makes all of your lands basics of all types. That means that any land can trigger Valakut — even other Valakuts. Beyond that, the deck has a bunch of aggro-control elements. Does it work? No idea — but it looks interesting.
Prismatic Omen
JWay (4-0)
Extended Daily #867685 on 01/15/2010
1 Breeding Pool
1 Hallowed Fountain
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Forest
4 Snow-Covered Island
1 Steam Vents
1 Temple Garden
4 Tolaria West
4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Vendilion Clique
4 Condescend
1 Electrolyze
1 Engineered Explosives
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Mana Leak
4 Prismatic Omen
3 Remand
4 Spell Snare
Sideboard
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Condemn
1 Intervention Pact
4 Negate
4 Path to Exile
1 Tormod’s Crypt
1 Vesuva
Prismatic Omen. Well, if you don’t have any, they are cheap. I wonder if I’ll have time to throw this deck together online. Could be fun.
A few more decks that I noticed, but will just mention.
First, a Blazing Shoal deck, piloted by zelezny1, made Top 8 of a PE. Apparently, Blazing Shoal works well with Goblin Guide. The deck also packed Fury of the Horde — a pitch card that gives you a second attack phase. For details, look for the eighth place deck in the Online Premier Event on January 16th.
The “other” category, above, included a Gifts Rock deck, one White Weenie build, and two Reveillark decks. Two other decks have also done well — combo Elves with Eldrazi Monument and Smallpox. Both of these decks appeared in small numbers, but both appeared, repeatedly, in recent events. They may be on their way up.
That’s all I can pull out of this data. If I actually get the chance to play Extended, I may have more info. For now, though, I have to get back to work.
PRJ
“one million words” on MTGO