The Kamigawa Block Constructed PTQs are in progress. We have several weeks worth of PTQ results, plus the results of two Grand Prix, and the format is shaking out. I’ve noticed that the decks seem – at least to me – to be really heavy in chaser rares. That could be a real effect, or could be because I am trying to get the cards online. Time for some research.
I pulled up the Tier One decklists from the last half dozen Block Constructed seasons. Then I counted rares. However, that wasn’t really enough. Some rares are trash, some are chase rares, but most are middle of the road. Likewise, some uncommons are actually worth money (e.g Fact or Fiction, Sensei’s Divining Top and Eternal Witness) while others are left on tables across the nation after drafts.
I created five categories – chase rares, rares, junk rares, chase uncommons and uncommons. I didn’t bother counting junk uncommons, commons and basic lands – all of those are generally available pretty much for free. No point in counting them.
Defining the difference between chase rares and regular rares is actually not that easy – and the numbers vary over time. Cranial Extraction was a chase rare; now it is closer to a typical rare. Tooth and Nail was once a trash rare, but it moved to chase rare status, and now is dropping back. In other cases, the line between chase rares and regular rares blurred, for example – Tendo Ice Bridge now, or the pain lands in Apocalypse, so I ended up splitting the cards – counting four Tendo Ice Bridges as two chase rares and two normal rares.
Next, I weighted the categories. I did not use actual prices, because I don’t have data on what the cards cost during the blocks and because card prices have all escalated a bit since Masques block. Instead, I used the following weighting:
Chase Rares: 8
Normal Rares: 5
Junk Rares: 1
Chase Uncommons: 4
Normal Uncommons: 0.5
Simply multiplying the number of cards in each category by their weighting gives a single, numeric score for each deck’s rarity. Averaging the scores for all the tier one decks in the block gives the block score.
Here are the tier one decks, including the relevant cards. I used GP Top 8 decklists, in most cases.
If nothing else, this is a walk down memory lane. I just wish I could remember all the names for these decks – especially for Invasion block.
Kamigawa Block Constructed:
Gifts:
Chase Rares: 3 Kagemaro, 4 Sickening Shoal, Kokusho, Ink-Eyes.
Rares: 4 Tendo Ice Bridge, 3 Gifts Ungiven, Meloku, Myojin of Night’s Reach, Goryo’s Vengeance, 4 Nezumi Shortfang (or 2 Godo, Tatsumasa, the Dragon’s Fang and Umezawa’s Jitte), Cranial Extraction, 2 Kodama of the North Tree.
Notable uncommons: 4 Tops, Hideous Laughter, 1 Hana Kami,
Score: 174
White Weenie:
Chase Rares: 4 Umezawa’s Jitte, 3 Shining Shoal, Pithing Needle.
Rares: 4 each Eight-and-a-Half-Tails, Isamaru, Celestial Kirin, Hokori, 3 each Orb of Dreams, Opal-Eyes, 1 Eiganjo Castle.
Chase Uncommons: Manriki-Gusari
Uncommons: Hand of Honor, Otherworldly Journey, Charge Across the Araba
Score: 220
Yaso Control:
Chase Rares: 4 Meloku, 2 Pithing Needle, 4 Jitte.
Rares: 4 each Disrupting Shoal, Jushi Apprentice, Threads of Disloyalty, 3 Azami, 2 each Journeyer’s Kite and Keiga, 1 Time Stop, 4 assorted rare lands.
Uncommons: 4 Hinder, other stuff.
Score: 197
Black Hand:
Chase Rares: 4 Jitte.
Rares: 4 Sickening Shoal, 3 each Yukora, Cranial Extraction, Hero’s Demise, 2 Ink-Eyes, 2 Shizo, 1 Tomb of Urami.
Chase Uncommons: 3 Manriki-Gusari.
Uncommons: Hand of Cruelty, Nezumi Graverobber, Ogre Marauder, Hideous Laughter. O-Naginata
Score: 178
Mirrodin Block Constructed:
(Note: Chase rares during block were Arcbound Ravager, Chrome Mox and Blinkmoth Nexus. Arc-Slogger and Solemn Simulacrum didn’t quite hit that price level, as I recall. Tooth peaked later in the season at least partly due to Standard.)
Affinity:
Chase Rares: Arcbound Ravager, Glimmervoid, Blinkmoth Nexus.
Rares: Moriok Rigger.
Chase Uncommons: Aether Vial
Uncommons: Atog, Viridian Shaman
Score: 123
Big Red:
Rares: Arc-Slogger, Blinkmoth Nexus, Solemn Simulacrum, 3 each; Forge[/author]“]Pulse of the [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author], Flamebreak.
Uncommons: Slith Firewalker, Shrapnel Blast, Magma Jet, some Fireball or Grab the Reins.
Score: 121
G/R Freshmaker:
Rares: Solemn Simulacrum, Arc-Slogger, sometimes Molder Slug.
Uncommons: Eternal Witness, Fireball, Viridian Shaman, Magma Jet, Oxidize, Creeping Mold.
Score: 106
Tooth and Nail:
Rares: Tooth and Nail, Solemn Simulacrum, 3 Mindslaver, 2 each: Duplicant, Rude Awakening, 1 Each: Platinum Angel, Triskelion, Mephidross Vampire, Sundering Titan, Leonin Abunas, Darksteel Colossus
Uncommons: Eternal Witness, Cloudpost. Oxidize, Sylvan Scrying.
Score: 136
Onslaught Block Constructed:
R/W Slide:
Chase Rares: Akroma’s Vengeance, Eternal Dragon, Exalted Angel.
Rares: Starstorm, 3 Decree of Justice, 2 Decree of Annihilation.
Uncommons: Lightning Rift, Astral Slide, Spark Spray, Silver Knights, 2 Temple of the False God, Wing Shards
Score: 176
Goblins:
Chase Rares: Siege-Gang Commander, Goblin Piledriver, Goblin Sharpshooter.
Rares: Clickslither, Stabilizer, Starstorm, 3 Sulfuric Vortex, 2 Goblin Goon.
Uncommons: Goblin Warchief, Gempalm Incinerator, 3 Goblin Burrows
Score: 205
Bad Form:
Rares: 4 Starstorm, 3 Form of the Dragon, 2 Rorix.
Uncommons: Lightning Rift, Gemplam Incinerator, Temple of the False God, Spark Spray, Thoughtbound Primoc, Menacing Ogre.
Score: 54
Odyssey Block Constructed
Mono-Black Control:
Chase Rares: Nantuko Shade, Mutilate, Braids, Cabal Minion, also Mirari, Tainted Pact.
Uncommons: Chainer’s Edict, Cabal Therapy, Diabolic Tutor, Cabal Coffers.
Score: 160
U/G Madness:
Chase Rares: none.
Uncommons: Arrogant Wurm, Wonder, Aboshan, Cephalid Emperor, Circular Logic, maybe Quiet Speculation.
Score: 31
W/G Madness:
Chase Rares: none.
Rares: Anurid Brushhopper, Solitary Confinement, Bearscape, Glory, Sungrass Prairie
Score: 67
Invasion Block Constructed (This section is admittedly a bit more sketchy simply due to the passage of time)
U/G/B:
Yavimaya Coast, Llanowar Wastes, Undermine, Spiritmonger, Pernicious Deed, Fact or Fiction, Mystic Snake
Score: 192
U/B/R:
Undermine, Fire / Ice, Urza’s Rage, Void, Shivan Reef, Fact or Fiction, 2 each Tsabo’s Decree, Yawgmoth’s Agenda,
Score: 156
U/W Beats:
Meddling Mage, Spectral Lynx, Absorb, Fact or Fiction, Caves of Koilos, 2 Unnatural Selection
Score: 124
Desolation Angel:
Caves of Koilos, Fact or Fiction, Vindicate, Spectral Lynx, 2 each: Rout, Yawgmoth’s Agenda, Desolation Angel,
Uncommons: Dromar’s Charm, 8 tap lands.
Score: 123
W/B/R:
Caves of Koilos, Blazing Specter, Spectral Lynx, Vindicate, 3 each Urza’s Rage, Goblin Trenches, Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]
Uncommons: Flametongue Kavu, Addle, Urborg Volcano, 2 Slay.
Score: 123
Star Spangled Slaughter:
Chase Rares: Meddling Mage, 3 Urza’s Rage.
Rares: Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author], Shivan Reef, Lightning Angel, Prophetic Bolt, Fire/Ice, 2 Skizzik, 2 Rakavolver, 1 Goblin Trenches, 2 Ghitu Fire,
Score: 197
Masques Block Constructed:
Rebels:
2 Mageta the Lion, 4 Parallax Wave 3 each: Blinding Angel, Wave of Reckoning, Chimeric Idol, 1 each: Rath’s Edge, Kor Haven
Score: 94
W/G Rebels:
Parallax Wave, Saproling Burst (26 commons maindeck, plus 24 basic lands.)
Score: 41
Muddy Waters:
4 each: Bribery, 2 each: Kor Haven, Tooth of Ramos, Wave of Reckoning, Jeweled Spirit, Blinding Angel, 1 each: Predator Flagship, Misdirection
Uncommons: 2 Foil, 3 Thwart, 1 Aura Fracture, 2 Dominate. (20 commons.)
Score: 101
Averaging the result by block, here’s what we get:
Masques Block Constructed: 79
Invasion Block Constructed: 150
Odyssey Block Constructed: 86
Onslaught Block Constructed: 145
Mirrodin Block Constructed: 121
Kamigawa Block Constructed: 192
So, the short answer is that Tier One Kamigawa block decks are more rare-intensive than past blocks. It isn’t just Jittes – even the decks that don’t play Jitte, like Black Gifts or Heartbeat, play a lot of Legends and Legendary lands, not to mention Meloku.
Of course this evaluation is somewhat subjective, but I tried different weightings of value for chase rares, regular rares and chase uncommons. None of those really changed the results significantly. One thing that could change the results would be to use current prices and values, rather than those that applied during the block. That would be a mistake. Kor Haven and Wave of Reckoning were valuable rares back during Masques Block, but they are pretty much worthless now. The point was that to play in those blocks, you had to have the cards at that time – waiting until the prices dropped usually meant waiting until the block was long over.
To some extent, the inflation of this block can be blamed on artifacts and lands. Sensei’s Divining Top and Jitte are colorless, and can be played in any deck that wants them. Likewise, every deck in Kamigawa Block that is more than one color wants Tendo Ice Bridge – meaning that the rare is in high demand.
I tried to find correlations that could explain the relative rankings. To a limited extent, I think the prices reflect how tightly tied to a single color or colors the decks were. Masques block had no good color fixers, so five-color good stuff decks were not possible. That meant that the competitive decks played more commons and uncommons. Invasion was more multicolored – but the rare painlands were almost all chase rares, so that brought up the price. Kamigawa is another block where five-color good stuff is a powerful deck – but that really doesn’t explain all the results.
It also isn’t control versus beatdown. The two most rare intensive decks are both beatdown decks. Number one is Kamigawa Block White Weenie. The second most rare intensive was Onslaught block Goblins, with Siege-Gang Commander and friends. That doesn’t necessarily mean much – the cheapest decks in the survey were also beatdown decks: W/G Rebels and U/G Madness.
So where does this lead us? I’m not sure. I do know that it seems harder than ever to win with rogue decks. The problem – as often the case in very strong metagames – is that there is a powerful control deck (Gifts, with the ability to recur Wrath of Kagemaro) and a very strong and fast beatdown deck with solid disruption (WW, with Hokori, Winter Orb Drinker.) That means that any rogue decks have to be able to deal with WW’s pressure, and outrun Gifts. Doing either one is difficult – doing both is almost impossible.
Hondens had the ability to do that – at least, it did a few weeks ago. Hondens was creatureless, so Gifts had many, many dead cards against it. WW was not running any extra enchantment removal (other than Kami of the Ancient Law and Celestial Kirin, of course.) Hondens could win against unprepared decks, and made a couple T8s – and at least one finals (Hi, Edd.) More recently, however, I have seen WW with Nikko-Onna in the sideboard, and Gifts decks adding some additional enchantment removal, because Night of Soul’s Betrayal is rough on the Hana-Kami recursion engine. A little more hate may knock Hondens back out of contention.
Beyond Hondens, though, there doesn’t seem to be much room for a bargain deck to compete. Black Hand is primarily uncommons, but the deck does require a playset of Jittes, at least three Yukoras and some assortment of Sickening Shoals, Cranial Extractions and so forth. Black Hand without the Jittes is really just a good draft deck – and is not fast enough to outrun Gifts.
I keep trying to build “entry-level” KBC decks, but decks like R/U splice, Aggro Red and so forth just don’t cut it. Back in Masques Block, you could play a competitive, almost rare free deck. You didn’t need 4 copies of a hugely expensive card, and other rares, to compete. The same was true in Odyssey block – 4 Mongrels, some Wonders and Arrogant Wurms and you were good to go. Even in Mirrodin block, Freshmaker was reasonably affordable. Kamigawa Block is not, and attendance at the PTQs is dropping.
Is there a connection? It seems likely. Should Wizards think about that? Seems like a good idea.
Of course, part of the reason attendance is dropping is that the field has only a couple massively dominant decks. Wizards should think about that, too.