I have no idea what I’m playing at the StarCityGames.com Invitational this weekend.
Seriously, or more realistically, half seriously. You are better than even money if you guess Delver and Storm, but I’m stuck thinking (or overthinking) this through. I’ve seen the angles needed to beat Delver, and there’s no way I should be Storming into a metagame of all Force of Wills.
I talked about Legacy heavily last week, so I’m going to discuss Standard here. This article is as much me going through the thought process myself as it is sharing my thoughts with you.
Delver
Creatures (16)
Lands (22)
Spells (22)
What’s Wrong:
Threat Density. There are three ways I’ve seen people realistically beat Delver. One is aggressively jamming a specific hard to beat card down their throat, like Huntmaster of the Fells or Geralf’s Messenger. Another is Lingering Souls. Both of these have serious issues, but that isn’t something to be discussed here. Check one section below for answers on both.
The real way people beat Delver is kill everything they have that matters. Part of why Delver is doing so well currently is that this is slightly harder to do so now than it was before. Restoration Angel is not only another three real threats compared to Invisible Stalker, but it adds another category of necessary answers while the answers to Stalker overlapped with those for Geist of Saint Traft. Still, two decks can reasonably just run you out of things to kill them with.
Esper Control is mono-removal and stalling threats that Delver can’t break through before Esper grinds them out. Wolf Run Ramp can also just jam a million sweepers and prevent Delver from getting off the ground in time to race the inevitable Titan.
Regardless, if your opponent shows up with a legitimate plan that involves keeping you from sticking a win condition, it can get rough. The difficulty of this is part of the reason Delver is so good, but it is doable.
Inbred Mirrors. So you sit down for a match and your opponent is playing Delver. Who wins? If you said the better player, that’s a good start.
Games of the mirror tend to go deep. Sometimes someone flips a Delver of Secrets or two and their opponent dies to them and sometimes Geist of Saint Traft goes unanswered, but that isn’t the norm. Postboard these both become much less likely as people start keeping hands that for sure beat a turn 2 Insectile Aberration and bring in Phantasmal Images to Clone kill Geist of Saint Traft.
You also have access to a ton of cards each game due to Ponder. You can easily see half your deck every game. Because of this, each individual sideboard decision you make has a huge impact on game play. Board in two Timely Reinforcements and you will likely have it if you want it.
My point here is that it’s fairly easy to board ridiculous inbred things for the mirror and crush with them. It’s also easy to board poorly and get stuck. While this isn’t an issue of itself as it rewards good decisions, there’s a ton of it that’s just raw guesswork based on your opponent’s decisions. If they board out Mana Leaks and board in Ratchet Bombs and Consecrated Sphinx, you want to match them on the high end and have counters for their Sphinxes. If they left in Leaks and went aggro, the same plan will lose you the game.
Maybe some people can get that read after one game of a match, but I’m not sure I can. If I show up with Delver, I want a direct plan of action in the mirror, and I’m not sure that is readily attainable.
What’s Right:
You can always be the aggro. It doesn’t matter what they are playing; sometimes you just kill them. Geist is the biggest contributor to this, letting you kill people in only a couple hits, but the three power fliers are also another easy route to victory when backed by a few combat tricks.
Why I Would Play Delver:
It’s clearly the best deck. Not the best deck for the event, but the actual straight up best deck. I’m also used to the hybrid-control/tempo style of game Delver is trying to play. I did poorly with the deck at Columbus, but I feel like my judgment with the deck has gotten a lot better since. Odds are I’m playing Delver, and odds are the same applies to almost everyone else. My board is going to be stacked for the mirror.
Zombies
Creatures (22)
- 2 Fume Spitter
- 4 Diregraf Ghoul
- 4 Gravecrawler
- 4 Falkenrath Aristocrat
- 4 Geralf's Messenger
- 4 Blood Artist
Lands (23)
Spells (15)
Note that I’m posting this list not because I know it’s the best, but because it’s the closest to what I would play.
What’s Wrong:
No two-drops. This has been a known issue with the archetype, but it’s often hard to apply pressure with Zombies because of this giant hole in the mana curve. There are games you get to play a second one-drop on turn 2, but that is running better than expectations. The other 70% or so of games, you will have to hope a 2/x or nothing is enough to pressure them before a Geralf’s Messenger shows up.
Blood Artist technically is a two, but it doesn’t actually immediately increase your clock like a normal two-drop would in combat. Treacherous Pit-Dweller is cool, but the drawback is too much against Delver with Dismembers. Highborn Ghoul is the only realistic attacker, and it is at best uninspiring.
This is part of why I like the red splash so much. Going all the way back to testing for Pro Tour Dark Ascension, we had a burn heavy Zombies list that played out much like a red deck. Just a 2/x on turn 1 is enough pressure when your hand is eight or more points of burn.
Without this reach Zombies is going to play out more like a White Weenie deck, and winning games where you don’t get far ahead on board are hard to close out. Messenger makes this fairly easy, but without that card it gets more difficult. Lots of hands will have a wasted turn early where you don’t play something that can actually kill them, which leads to my next point.
Lots of filler. Look at the power level of your cards that aren’t named Geralf’s Messenger. Now look at those two cards.
I’m not saying every deck doesn’t have this issue. It’s just significantly more pronounced here. Without Messenger, the deck would form a barely playable aggro deck. With Messenger, you have four of a card that punishes people hard just because you drew it. Interacting profitably with a Messenger is almost impossible. Interacting profitably with a Diregraf Ghoul is easy.
You only have four Geralf’s Messengers. Your opponents have reliable decks, unlike the Tempered Steel days where you could just jam four auto-wins and win the other half of your games with 56 ham sandwiches. Better hope you draw your good ones every game.
Things I Like:
You have extremely fast starts. You can have your opponent at twelve life when they untap for their third turn, facing down nine power of nearly unkillable attackers.
You also have absurd amounts of reach to back these starts up with. Well, not every list does, but mine would. Enough with these other removal spells; I want Brimstone Volley. Targeting you.
Why I Would Play Zombies:
If I just want to bash in faces and expect few Celestial Purges, I would play Zombies. More specifically, if I wanted to be pure aggro but not have Delver’s issues with Solar Flare. Zombies isn’t unreal there, but Flare has more of an issue with Messenger than any Delver card.
Note: Interestingly, the same issue with Zombies having a bad curve is why I don’t like W/B Tokens. Lingering Souls is great; spending your two slot on a card that doesn’t advance the board on its own is not. I’m not actually considering that deck enough for it to be its own section, but it’s worth bringing up why I wouldn’t play it.
Wolf Run Ramp
Creatures (17)
- 4 Solemn Simulacrum
- 1 Birds of Paradise
- 1 Acidic Slime
- 3 Inferno Titan
- 4 Primeval Titan
- 4 Huntmaster of the Fells
Lands (26)
Spells (17)
Poor hands and worse mulligans. Four land drops, two ramp spells, and a Titan is seven cards out of ten or eleven seen by turn 4. Not all your cards are mana. Once you add sweepers, it’s easy to draw hands that come up a mana or two short. In general, your keepable hands are also very specific. Mulligan once and your odds of coming up short on land drops drastically increases. And that’s just talking about land drops. You can also be missing a threat or the ramp or sweepers to get to six.
Sure, in return you get a very high top end on power level, but this deck is just rolling the dice every round. If you want to do that you can, and I know I have in the past, but you should be aware of what you are getting into before you start.
Note that this is different than the issues Valakut had. Valakut was enough of an upgrade from Inkmoth Nexus that you could ignore a lot more things and cut interaction for more redundancy on nut draws. Threats have also gotten better than they were post-Stoneforge Mystic. Delver of Secrets heads up against Squadron Hawk: who races better? Add these two together, and Valakut could safely ignore enough threats that it wasn’t worth watering the deck down to try and interact. Instead, you accepted losses to things like Hero of Bladehold or Splinter Twin that you had no easy answers to.
Things I Like:
You legitimately go over the top of Esper. I’ve watched the matchup play out a ton, and I have no idea how Esper ever beats Wolf Run. This is even truer since the Esper decks started cutting Curse of Death’s Hold to lock out Inkmoth Nexus. Tamiyo and Sun Titan are big threats, but a Primeval Titan is still bigger, as is a Devil’s Play.
It also punishes decks that don’t do a lot to fight it. The things that beat Delver don’t match up with those that beat Wolf Run. The only real exception would be just killing them, and even then Wolf Run is heavy on sweepers to answer with.
Why I Would Play Wolf Run Ramp:
If I was confident enough in my Legacy deck. If I knew I just needed a solid amount of wins and wouldn’t have to hit the variance jackpot to go x-1, I would just coast Wolf Run to an acceptable Standard finish.
Esper Control
Creatures (7)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (26)
Spells (23)
Jeremy’s list is here over Belfatto’s because of the number of planeswalkers. They probably aren’t actually as good as I think they are, but they mop up random decks very well.
What’s Wrong:
No nut draws:
Turn 1 Delver, turn 2 flip.
Turn 2 Rampant Growth, turn 3 Solemn Simulacrum, turn 4 Primeval Titan.
Turn 1 Gravecrawler, turn 2 Tragic Slip your guy and play Diregraf Ghoul, turn 3 Geralf’s Messenger.
Turn 1 Ponder, turn 2 Go for the Throat, turn 3 ummm, turn 6 make a Sun Titan?
Things just aren’t what they used to be for big control. I fondly remember the recent days of answer all your spells from turns 1 through 6 and slam Cruel Ultimatum, or the more recent days of answer all your spells from turns 1 through 5 and slam a Grave Titan.
Esper first of all doesn’t have the same sort of curve of answers. Part of this is Forbidden Alchemy being your three-drop and not actually refilling your hand. You don’t start pulling ahead on advantages until later and only trade, allowing for easy burn out similar to Wolf Run if you actually curve.
Second, this deck doesn’t have an actual threat to curve into. Tamiyo and Gideon are close, but as mentioned above they are lackluster against the biggest threat in the format. Sun Titan returning Phantasmal Images is huge, but that is a long game threat that you can’t slam on turn 4.
What I Like:
The Delver matchup. As much as my friends have said otherwise based on their experiences, this deck has all the removal you need to compete with Delver. Given this format and the general bias of the SCG Invitational towards blue and the best deck, need I say more?
Why I Would Play Esper Control:
If testing Delver against it makes me want to throw my Restoration Angels across the room, I will play Esper. If it isn’t that lopsided, I’ll stay away. As it was last year, I’d rather win 60% of my Delver matches on skill in the mirror and be Delver elsewhere than win 65% of my Delver matches on deck choice and be The Rock elsewhere.
Note: The same logic applies to the U/W midrange decks as it does with Esper, only I don’t think they are remotely as good against Delver without the black removal.
Birthing Pod
Creatures (30)
- 3 Llanowar Elves
- 1 Solemn Simulacrum
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 1 Acidic Slime
- 2 Borderland Ranger
- 1 Aether Adept
- 1 Frost Titan
- 1 Inferno Titan
- 1 Wurmcoil Engine
- 1 Phyrexian Metamorph
- 1 Deceiver Exarch
- 1 Tormentor Exarch
- 3 Phantasmal Image
- 4 Strangleroot Geist
- 2 Huntmaster of the Fells
- 1 Vorapede
- 1 Zealous Conscripts
- 1 Wolfir Silverheart
Lands (23)
Spells (7)
What’s Wrong:
The card Birthing Pod isn’t actually good against Delver. The payment of life and investment without added board presence makes you extremely soft to Vapor Snag. The people playing this deck at Grand Prix Minneapolis were boarding it out in that matchup, and without the card you are just a pile of random cards.
Birthing Pod also seems miserable against Zombies. Let’s just get this card online turn 4 and pay life to lose our creature to a Tragic Slip. Yay!
What I Like:
Huntmaster of the Fells is the man. Well, not entirely, but close enough. He doesn’t beat a Restoration Angel, but he is pretty good against the rest of what Delver does. This deck makes lots of Huntmasters.
Similar to Wolf Run, this deck attacks from a completely different angle than Delver. While you are still board based, removal is much less relevant against your six-drops and Birthing Pods. You also have an actual engine to grind with if your opponent wants to attrition you out of win conditions like they would Delver.
Why I Would Play Pod:
Given the expected metagame I wouldn’t; the deck loses too hard to Delver. Still, Pod is promising against everything else. Maybe it’s just the danger of cool things kicking in, but keep an eye on this one.
G/R (and Naya) Aggro
Creatures (24)
- 4 Llanowar Elves
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 1 Acidic Slime
- 2 Phyrexian Metamorph
- 4 Strangleroot Geist
- 4 Huntmaster of the Fells
- 2 Hellrider
- 3 Wolfir Avenger
Lands (23)
Spells (13)
What’s Wrong:
Your cards all suck (except Huntmaster of the Fells). Seriously. Half your deck is mana; the other half all dies to Vapor Snag. Except Huntmaster of the Fells. He does everything. People hate on him because Delver can manage the flip, but if you don’t play into them having a spell on your turn you won’t lose to that. He fights Geist of Saint Traft extremely well, and without that card it is hard for Delver to race the life swing Huntmaster provides.
Your mana curve is awkward at best. When you play a mana creature on turn 1 with G/R, it doesn’t have an immediate pay off. Usually it isn’t doing anything until turn 3 when you are dropping a four-drop. When you don’t have a mana guy, you still don’t do much. 2/1 haste isn’t cutting it in this format.
What I Like:
Huntmaster of the Fells. Seven or eight of them via Green Sun’s Zenith so you avoid the Zombies issue of not drawing your overpowered card.
Why I Would Play G/R Aggro:
I straight up wouldn’t. Zombies at least has a cohesive plan B. This deck just durdles around without a Huntmaster. If you play this deck, you better hope that Sword of War and Peace connects through all those Vapor Snags.
Infect
Spells (26)
- 3 Livewire Lash
- 3 Unnatural Predation
- 4 Mutagenic Growth
- 2 Apostle's Blessing
- 3 Mental Misstep
- 3 Gut Shot
- 4 Titanic Growth
- 4 Wild Defiance
Sideboard
What I Don’t Like:
You can’t beat a blocker. Or a Vapor Snag really. If they get in the way of your big hit, things get ugly very fast. Sixteen infect creatures is not enough to power through combat trades or removal.
Things I Like:
Nothing.
Why I Would Play Infect:
I wouldn’t. I’m bringing this up now not because I ever thought it was a legitimate choice, but because other people have tried to convince me it is. It’s not close; it isn’t. You are short an actually good creature, multiple turns of speed, or real evasion from being anywhere close.
So what does my decision hinge on at this point? Mostly how aggro Zombies matches up against Delver. If I can get a list that bashes hard early enough to push through, I’ll play it. Otherwise, Delver it is. It’s really that simple.
If this sounds disheartening, keep in mind I’ll have limited time this week. It’s very possible I should be playing Wolf Run Ramp or Esper Control but just don’t have the time to feel confident with their place in the format. If you do have the time, don’t be afraid to try them out. Trust me: the Delver mirror is easier than it looks. Just be sure you can answer a Delver early, have a big late game, realize Ponder is the best spell, and board with a plan in mind.
One final note given Luis’ savaging of the World Magic Cup Qualifier this weekend: Hero of Bladehold is still the real deal in Delver sideboards. As I mentioned, Wolf Run Ramp can kill everything you play. They can’t really kill a Hero, and it is easy mode to kill them with it. You can even run it into a Titan and Restoration Angel it Geist style, only your tokens stick around to attack for another four damage