What You Need To Know About Standard

Is this the highest price Standard format ever? Which cards are trending up and down from Battle for Zendikar? Which set from Tarkir block has the most cards exploding in value? Chas mines the data so you don’t have to!

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Is this the most expensive Standard format ever?

There have been other pricey formats- Baneslayer Angel and Liliana of the Veil both spent quite a bit of time over $50, and Jace, the Mind Sculptor sold
for more than $100 in its day. Between $20+ fetchlands and $80 Jaces, though, our current format is one of the top two or three most expensive Standard
metagames in the history of the game.

This happened because of a nearly unprecedented confluence of events:

  • Key, Eternal-playable lands in the previous fall set
    . If the fetchlands had been in Battle for Zendikar instead of Khans of Tarkir, they’d be $8-$12 right now instead of
    $15-$30. No one is drafting Khans now, though, and everyone knows that these cards are going to be pillars of Modern going forward. Because of
    that, demand is vastly outpacing supply.
  • Most major, archetype-defining cards in a large, under-opened spring set
    . If the Command cycle and G/W Megamorph pieces had been in Khans of Tarkir instead of Dragons of Tarkir, their prices would be 50%
    lower. Many fewer packs of Dragons were opened, so nearly all the cards from that set are continuing to trend upward.
  • The best card in Standard is an Eternal-playable, core set, two mana, blue planeswalker.
    It’s Jace’s world and we just live in it. This is the perfect storm for creating a $70-$100 card in Standard. Good thing it can’t ever really happen
    again thanks to the elimination of core sets!
  • The fall set was a massive bust other than a single mythic rare
    . The cards from the most recent set are supposed to bring down the price of Standard because drafters continue adding to the supply of top tier
    playables. Instead, people are opening packs of BFZ and hoping to crack…what, exactly, other than expeditions and Gideon?

There is good news on the horizon for those of you hoping to buy into Standard, though. As I mentioned last Monday, the week after the fall Pro Tour is nearly always
Standard’s high water mark for the year. Prices spike as everyone rushes to get a new deck, and then demand starts to fall off toward the end of the year
as most of the casually competitive players stick with their existing decks. If you’re willing to wait a couple more weeks, the overall cost of Standard
should be down 10-20% across the board.

Last week, we highlighted specific decks from Pro Tour Battle For Zendikar and talked a little about cards that might spike due to increased demand. Now
that we’ve got some time under our belts, price trends have started to emerge. There are still some cards where the jury is still out-Archangel of Tithes,
for example, was a three-of in the only 9-1 Standard deck at the Pro Tour, but the price has yet to go up because the deck didn’t make the Top 8 and wasn’t
featured on the livestream. For the most part, though, the cards that will be in demand over the next several months have made themselves known.

Note: I am writing this before yesterday’s Standard $5,000 Premier IQ at #SCGSTL or the Grand Prix Quebec City results are in, so it’s possible that a new
deck or two has emerged. This rarely happens the weekend after a major Standard Pro Tour, especially since the Open Series format at SCG St. Louis was
Legacy, but it is possible. I suggest taking a quick look at those decklists after you finish reading this article.

At any rate, since the format just turned over, it’s really important to have a sense of which Standard cards are hot right now and which are dropping due
to a lack of demand. This is fairly easy information to find-if you’ve looked at enough decklists of you’ve played in FNM for the past couple of weeks, you
probably know it intuitively-but having it in one place can really hammer it home. Polluted Delta and Sunken Hollow both see play in the new Standard, but
which card is rising in price and which one is falling? What’s going on with Tasigur and Hangarback Walker? Are any cards from Battle for Zendikar
safe? Let’s add it all up and find out.

Battle for Zendikar – Trending Up

An important note before we continue: most of the cards in my ‘trending up’ section are there because of their performance at the Pro Tour. Most of these
cards have probably already peaked (likely sometime early last week) and should decline a bit from this point on. It’s still worth thinking about them
separately from the cards that are trending down, though-these cards should remain expensive and in demand far longer, even if they do begin to lose some
of their value almost immediately.

Anyhow, it makes sense that three of the above cards are on the Battle for Zendikar list. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar proved itself on camera at the
Pro Tour and is the clear breakout card of the set. Dragonmaster Outcast and Radiant Flames were sideboard workhorses all weekend long as well. I expect
Gideon to be stable at $35-$40 for the next few months. Dragonmaster Outcast should settle in around $4.99, and Radiant Flames will be a $2-$3 card at
least.

Oblivion Sower was almost completely absent from the Pro Tour, but demand for the card is still strong. Part of it is the Travis Woo effect-he’s been
hyping it up for the past couple weeks, and lots of players like to build the decks he’s working on. The other part is that it had been doing well in
ramp-ish builds prior to the Pro Tour. Right now, I’m selling Oblivion Sower until I see if it can do anything in the post-PT metagame. Until it does, I
see it falling toward the $3-$5 range.

Battle for Zendikar – Trending Down

Yeah, this is basically the entire rest of the set. This is pretty typical of a large fall set right after the Pro Tour, though usually not to this degree.
Many people were holding their extra rares and mythics until afterward, and now they’re all hitting the market at the same time. The result? Prices will
tumble over the next several weeks.

Barring another shift in the metagame, we’re going to see most of these prices drop by at least 50% by the start of November. Drana, Liberator of Malakir
will be $7-$10. Ulamog will hold a little more value and end up at $10-$12. Ob Nixilis will be $8-$9, but Kiora will end up a little bit lower at $6-$7.
Undergrowth Champion will drop to $6. The better Battle lands will be $5-$6, and the lesser ones will be $3-$4-no one needs a full playset of these, so
they won’t hold their value as easily as the shocks or fetches. Most of the rest of these cards-even the mythics -will drop down to the $1-$3 range.

This won’t happen to all of these cards-two or three of them will find a home in a very good deck and will spike accordingly. There’s a difference between
buying low and sitting on a hot potato, though, and I’m dropping every single Battle for Zendikar card on this list as quickly as I can. The time
for buying back in will come in mid-December or so.

Magic Origins – Trending Up

The three best flipwalkers are on the ‘trending up’ list, but all three have very different price charts. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy spiked to $80 prior to the
Pro Tour, and its outstanding performance last weekend was enough to keep the price from dropping. I expect the card to stay between $70-$80 going forward
because it’s so important in so many different decks.

Liliana, Heretical Healer spiked during the PT weekend before dropping off a little when U/B Aristocrats didn’t make Top 8. I expect we’ll see her drop
back into the $25ish range before long, but the U/B deck is both fun and explosive, so I don’t think we’ll see her back down to $15 again for a few months
at least.

Nissa, Vastwood Seer was a major piece of many of the under-the-radar decks at the PT. It was a three-of in that Archangel of Tithes G/W Megamorph build,
and Sam Black ran four of them in his 8-2 Bant Tokens list. The card didn’t really spike last weekend, but it has spent the past week slowly trending up. I
expect Nissa to be at least $30-$35 before she finishes peaking. This is the Standard card I’m trading for most aggressively right now.

Hangarback Walker only dropped in price because of the event deck, but its strong showing at the PT gave it a price floor at about $15. It’s started to
rebound a little, and I’d expect it to be stable at $15-$20 until the format moves on or the event deck sells through.

Abbot of Keral Keep shouldn’t drop as long as Atarka Red remains tier one. It’s a playable card in Modern, too, so it can certainly hold an $8-$9 price tag
as long as its Standard deck continues to perform.

Managorger Hydra didn’t do much at the Pro Tour, but it has been seeing more tournament play recently. It’s also a big casual favorite. Don’t ignore the
fact that this card keeps rising-snag a few copies before it ends up as a $5-$6 rare.

Knight of the White Orchid has started showing up in G/W lists, but there are several printings of this card, limiting its upside. It might hit $3-$4, but
its ceiling should remain low.

Magic Origins – Trending Down

These cards might not have done much at the Pro Tour, but they don’t have as far to fall as the Battle for Zendikar cards. Each of them
might drop by 10-15% over the next month, but there’s no urgency to sell here. In fact, we’re getting close to the point where all five of these cards are
worth buying as a long-term investment. Day’s Undoing and Goblin Piledriver are especially good bets to see prices go up a year or two from now, and
Exquisite Firecraft is (at least somewhat) playable in Legacy.

Dragons of Tarkir – Trending Up

It was a very good week for Dragons of Tarkir as nearly every high profile card in the set saw play at the Pro Tour. The key cards for G/W
Megamorph, Esper Control, Esper Dragons, and Atarka Red are all here, and all of them have seen at least a slight price increase over the past week.

Dragonlord Ojutai might not have had as good an event as some people hoped for-copies were selling for $50 on site before the event-but it did well enough
in the control decks that the price has stabilized in the $30 range. The non-Silumgar commands continue to trend upward, and the G/W Megamorph cards are
all still trading well. Even Narset Transcendent, which has never really made much of an impact in Standard, has begun to rise in price a little as people
continue to try and build around the U/W planeswalker.

We’re not quite at the point where it makes sense to run out and start cracking Dragons of Tarkir boxes, but if you have any packs lying around,
you should try to draft them and sell the singles as soon as you can. This is certainly going to be the set’s high water mark, though most of these cards
should maintain a large portion of their value for as long as they’re Standard legal.

Dragons of Tarkir – Trending Down

  • None

Very few marquee cards from Dragons of Tarkir didn’t make the ‘trending up’ list, and none of the ones that haven’t shown growth have shown any
signs of dropping in price. Yet again, Dragons of Tarkir has proven to be the most powerful and resilient expansion in years.

Fate Reforged – Trending Up

Ugin may have only been a two-of in a couple of decks at the Pro Tour, but it’s a key card in those control archetypes. It also sees play in Modern G/R
Tron and in many Cube and Commander lists. I don’t expect it to see much more upward movement, but I doubt it drops much, either-even when rotation comes
around. Monastery Mentor is much the same way-it’s a better card in casual and Eternal formats than in Standard, but it shows up enough to keep the value
slowly ticking up.

Soulfire Grand Master was a small part of one of the very good Jeskai decks at the Pro Tour, so it saw a small bump last week that seems to have leveled
out. Wild Slash did a little better-the card is an Atarka Red mainstay, and it’s hard to find them under $2 this week. Make sure you’re not sitting on a
pile of these in your bulk.

Fate Reforged – Trending Down

Both of these prices continue to drop because of the BFZ event deck. With Hangarback Walker trending up and Warden of the First Tree holding steady, the
value had to bleed off somewhere. Even though both of these cards see play, the other cards in that deck see more. If Tasigur continues to fall, it’s going
to be a savvy pickup at some point thanks to its value in Eternal formats.

Khans of Tarkir – Trending Up

One of the Magic finance writers whom I most respect, Corbin Hosler, wrote an interesting article last week suggesting that it might be time to sell your fetchlands. His argument is worth considering-prices are high
right now because people need fetchlands to play Standard, not because of their Eternal value. Are Polluted Delta and friends going to drop over the next
few months as Standard demand wanes?

My guess is that if they do fall, it won’t be by much. Demand will soften, but I doubt too many people will sell off their fetchlands in response. The
memory of $100 Scalding Tarns is just too fresh. Prices may drop by 10%-15% across the board, and buylists will certainly be less aggressively interested
in taking these off your hands, but I doubt the retail value budges all that much off current highs. Selling extras is fine if you’ve got 10-12 of each
kicking around and you want to re-invest, but I’m holding my personal playsets through rotation.

The rest of the cards on this list put up a solid showing at the Pro Tour. Anafenza is much better positioned in Abzan now, and Wingmate Roc is an all-star
in multiple decks. These two cards in particular should maintain most of their regained value thanks to their mythic rarity.

It’s also worth paying attention to the three uncommons that saw the biggest gain last week-Monastery Swiftspear, Abzan Charm, and Become Immense. As Khans continues to retreat into the rearview mirror, these cards have a greater chance of increasing in value. It also helps that two of them see
significant play in both Modern and Legacy. Make sure you don’t have any hiding away in your bulk!

Khans of Tarkir – Trending Down

Dig Through Time is still suffering from its Eternal bans, but it’s a powerful enough card in Standard that I could see a return to double digits if Esper
Control really mounted a comeback. Ditto See the Unwritten-if the ramp deck never materializes, this is a $2 mythic waiting to happen, but there’s still
some strong upside if the metagame evolves in the right direction.

Hardened Scales was another Open Series favorite that no-showed the PT. Casual interest should keep it at $2-$3, but it can’t maintain a price tag near $5
without competitive play. Ghostfire Blade is interesting from a Modern Affinity perspective, but it should drop back to bulk before long if it doesn’t
start to see more play in Standard.

Other Weekly Trends

– Hasbro had their 2015 Q3 earnings call, and we learned several interesting things about how Magic performed this year:

* Origins was the best-selling summer set in the history of the game. Good job on those flipwalkers, WotC!

* From a raw dollar figure amount, Magic revenue actually declined in Q3. This is notable, because it basically never happens.

* However, this decline (at least according to the folks on the earnings call) is almost entirely attributable to the falling value of the euro in relation
to the dollar. When currency conversion is factored out, Magic earnings grew compared to Q3 of 2014.

* Hasbro continues to stress the importance of MTGO and their desire to financially support a robust digital platform for Magic: the Gathering.

I wish we had a better sense of how big Magic’s growth was compared to 2014 once all the currency conversion is factored out because minimal growth would
be very telling. Q3 of 2015 included Magic Origins and MM2015 instead of M15 and Conspiracy, so I’d expect sales to be
up big thanks to the relative popularity of those two sets. If they weren’t (which is what it sounds like), it might speak to a peak in the player base. It
might also be explained by rising production costs, which will eventually force WotC to raise the MSRP of a pack above $3.99. Might that happen next year,
with no Modern Masters set to pick up the slack?

Magic growth has been pretty slow for the past two years regardless, so I wouldn’t be worried about these figures in terms of the game’s overall health.
It’s business as usual during the 2013-2015 player base plateau (as opposed to the crazy bull market from 2010-2013).

– In the world of Eternal cards, someone bought out all the foil copies of Trinisphere. It’s a great card in Vintage Workshops decks, but I can’t see the
new high price sticking around. Someone will re-stock the From the Vaults copies around $15, and the price will drop from there. Sell into the spike if you
can.

– Otherwise, Modern is in its usual offseason mode. Lotus Cobra seems to be creeping upward, which is at least slightly interesting, but everything else is
stable or slowly falling. I wouldn’t buy in until mid-December, but now is a great time to start targeting Modern cards in trade-especially if you’re
ditching Standard staples that are flying high thanks to the PT.

– I wouldn’t start buying the Zendikar expeditions yet, by the way. Prices keep dropping by $5-$10 each week, especially on the more expensive cards. I’ll
let you know when they start to bottom out.

That said, I would start thinking about buying foil full art basic lands, especially if you want to own, say, 30 copies of a single Mountain or Island.
Much like the best tokens, these tend to start rising in price after the first big glut of packs is opened and the overall supply starts to dwindle. You
might still be able to find good deals a month or two from now (the fact that Oath of the Gatewatch will have foil full art lands helps),
but you might have difficulty finding a dozen or more of the same picture in the same place.