[CEDitor’s Note: The original version of this article incorrectly stated Ojutai’s Command could bounce a creature. This has been corrected. Our apologies.]
Zero Esper Dragons decks in the top 8? Surely, that’s the story, right?
…
Grand Prix Paris continues the recent trend of all Abzans ascending. Three of the top five decks from the weekend were Abzan decks that are beginning to
cover basically every single point along the spectrum that runs from Abzan Aggro to Abzan Megamorph to Abzan Control.
Perhaps more interestingly, Esper Dragons was not one of the top five. Oh, it was one of the five most popular decks in the tournament, no
question, it’s just that it didn’t have the best day 2.
Oh yeah? That’s how it is? Esper Dragons is the next Caw-Blade, then one week of no top 8s and it’s yesterday’s watertrash?
Okay, first of all, what the hell is watertrash? But never mind that. Esper Dragons was never Caw-Blade, come on. Besides, nobody’s
saying it’s not a good deck anymore. It’s literally a pillar of the format. It’s just that the format has evolved, and the strategies people are playing
are all better equipped to beat it.
I think the real question is, “What comes next?” The format has been completely taken over by Abzan, and there isn’t a clear way to break out of the cycle.
The best performing deck over the past several weeks has consistently been Abzan Aggro. Abzan Aggro’s “worst matchup” is Abzan Control. What’s a player to
do?
The following is a breakdown of the GP Paris metagame. The top 16 metagame is weighted by finish, and the final column is the average of the day 2 metagame
and the top 16 metagame, giving us an idea of how important each deck is to test against, to be prepared for, if we want to win the event.
GP Paris 2015 Metagame
Decks with a higher success in the top 16 than their day 2 metagame presence generally overperformed on day 2. Likewise, if a deck’s top 16 percentage is
lower than its day 2, it performed below average on day 2.
There’s a lot of interesting insights in this chart. For instance, basically every breed of Jeskai has been getting killed since the advent of Dragons of Tarkir. The archetype has steadily declined, continuing to lose week after week. Finally, the archetype appears to be nearly dead.
Likewise, the tree of life lies withered for G/R Dragon decks, which appear more bark than bite when they would leave the metagame at the first sign of
Elspeth threatening to chop them down. Some decks can evolve, like Abzan and the various blue decks, Mardu, and G/W. The G/R Dragons deck, however, appears
to have stagnated. It helped set the pace, but now, everyone seems to have edge over it.
Remember when R/W Aggro was a deck? See the decline of Jeskai.
What about Bant Midrange/Megamoprph/Devotion/Whatever?
“Why you shouldn’t play Bant Megamorph.”
-Gerry Thompson
Does it even count as a quote when it’s the title of his article?
And like that, GerryT put the archetype to rest. I’m not saying he’s wrong. He’s actually totally right. Why do you think Craig Wescoe gave up on the deck
after helping pioneer it?
It’s outdated. The G/W Co-Co deck does what the Bant deck aspired to do. Besides,
the format has really warped around Dragonlord Ojutai. With everyone so focused on beating the card, it’s less good of a splash than it used to be.
I think it’s getting harder and harder to draw useful lines between the various shades of Abzan. Obviously, it’s easy to come up with heuristics like:
- “Deathmist Raptor” means Abzan Megamorph.
- Rakshasa Deathdealer means Abzan Aggro.
-
Elspeth means Abzan Control (or Midrange, because maybe you divide Abzan Midrange and Abzan Control based on whether or not they play five mana
sweepers main, who cares?).
The thing is, all of these decks are blurring at the edges. We’ve already been seeing Den Protectors in Abzan Control. Is it really necessary to divide
Abzan Control from Abzan Megamorph because of Deathmist Raptor? It’s an awesome card, but it’s not like it turns the deck on its head. Cards that are good
against Abzan Control are still good against Abzan Megamorph, for the most part. It’s just that Deathmist Raptor has some strengths, and there are some
strategies that are effective against it.
What’s making it really confusing is when Deathmist Raptor + Den Protector gets incorporated into Abzan Aggro. For instance, taking GP Paris winner Amand
Dosimont’s Abzan Aggro deck and compare it to Top 8 competitor Jasper Grimmer’s “Abzan Megamorph.” First, the champ:
Creatures (21)
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 4 Anafenza, the Foremost
- 2 Wingmate Roc
- 4 Rakshasa Deathdealer
- 4 Siege Rhino
- 2 Warden of the First Tree
- 1 Surrak, the Hunt Caller
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (25)
Spells (12)
Creatures (24)
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 3 Anafenza, the Foremost
- 2 Wingmate Roc
- 4 Siege Rhino
- 2 Warden of the First Tree
- 1 Hidden Dragonslayer
- 4 Den Protector
- 4 Deathmist Raptor
Lands (26)
Spells (10)
Come on, man! These are basically the same deck!
f
It sounds like people are saying the most important thing to hear about an Abzan deck is whether or not it features Deathmist Raptor; and in my mumbling (sic) opinion, focusing on that drowns out the signal. The noise annoys boys like me who want to see what decks and tech are best to be.
Siege Rhino is the best card. It gives people a lot of incentive to play decks that are those three colors. What’s most useful to me is knowing how many of
those people play Rakshasa Deathdealer and how many play Elspeth, Sun’s Champion. Deathmist Raptor info is nice too, but if I get to know one thing about
an Abzan deck, I want to know if it’s aggressive or controlling.
I’m not sure what the solution is, but I’m starting to feel like maybe all the Abzan decks shouldn’t be lumped together with a note about how many of them
are aggro and how many are control. Remember, the control decks often play Fleecemane Lion and sometimes even Rakshasa Deathdealer in the sideboard. The
aggro decks often transform a little into more controlling builds. Basically, they all come from the same family of decks, and right now, those decks are
about evenly split between aggro and control.
Let’s try merging the Abzan decks together and condensing some of the other information down a bit:
Okay, now we’re starting to see a picture emerge. The various shades of Abzan are far and away the most popular macro-strategy, yet they overperform by a
lot. That’s impressive. All three major Abzan archetypes performed above average in the top 16 metagame.
That’s the picture that is starting to emerge from your condensed chart…?
Look dude, Abzan completely dominating the format is the picture that emerged. One piece of supporting evidence happens to rely on the previous
information. Why do you gotta give me such a hard time?
Someone’s gotta call you out on your b
ull
****.
What the hell?! Can we even say that? This is a family site!
My point is just that Abzan defines the format. It’s got the most good cards, and it has so much room to adapt and beat whatever it wants (though not
everything all the time… probably).
The other big story is the continuing ascent of G/W Aggro, which has been doing a pretty good job of proving it has a legitimate claim to tier 1 status.
This only further increases my interest in playing Elspeth. Elspeth is great against Abzan Aggro, good in the Abzan mirror, and is generally looking
awesome in the format.
One thing I see when I look at this chart is a whole lotta decks where Self-Inflicted Wound is good. Seriously, all the Abzan decks, G/W Aggro, Esper
Dragons; Self-Inflicted Wound is good against nearly three-quarters of the field. Is it crazy to maindeck it? Two-mana removal is sweet, and it does seem
to hit more people than Ultimate Price does.
I’m not saying you have to be all-in on Suicide Black or something…
Creatures (26)
- 4 Tormented Hero
- 2 Mogis's Marauder
- 4 Pain Seer
- 4 Gnarled Scarhide
- 4 Bloodsoaked Champion
- 4 Mardu Shadowspear
- 4 Pitiless Horde
Lands (22)
- 22 Swamp
Spells (12)
Sideboard
I’m just saying, you can maindeck one or more Self-Inflicted Wounds, possibly in Abzan Aggro, where you’re also going to appreciate the two points of life
loss.
Want to know two great creatures to Self-Inflicted Wound?
Here’s a question for you. You ever face someone that opened on:
Turn 2: Fleecemane Lion
Turn 3: Savage Knuckleblade
Now, there’s something you don’t see every day…
Creatures (22)
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 4 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 3 Rattleclaw Mystic
- 4 Mantis Rider
- 4 Savage Knuckleblade
- 3 Seeker of the Way
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (24)
Spells (13)
Sideboard
With a manabase only Nassif could love, Yohan is on some serious Marvel vs Capcom type of time, crossing over a number of stars that generally don’t get to
fight together. The manabase is pushing it, but it’s at least in the realm of believability. Personally, I’d want slightly more colored mana, particularly
since half the tapped lands need us to fetch a Plains on turn 2, which can make Savage Knuckleblade a little more like Awkward Awkwardblade…
*sigh*
I generally love finding ingenious ways to mash up powerful cards, but there’s another cool piece of tech in this list.
Ojutai’s Command is particularly well-suited to Yohan’s deck, as he is often keeping four mana up to represent Collected Company. If you cast your Siege
Rhino, you could be walking into a two-for-one. If you don’t, Collected Company advances the board in a big way.
The thing is, it’s not like Ojutai’s Command isn’t getting a two-for-one anyway. They can save one of their creatures from a removal spell and get back one
of their many two-drops. They can effectively counter a Stoke the Flames and draw a card. They got options.
Besides, two Dromoka’s Command, two Valorous Stance, and three Stoke the Flames is not the most removal in the world. Ojutai’s Command helps two ways,
countering creatures and drawing a card. The Elspeth also helps, of course, and as mentioned above, is just generally awesome in the format.
Now, I’ve heard a lot of people jump on this list for only playing 22 creatures. How can you play Collected Company and only 22 creatures?
Well, first of all, it’s not like Elvish Mystic is a very impressive hit out of those decks, which is part of it. This list has a bit more “big-win”
Collected Companies than most, as Fleecemane Lion, Savage Knuckleblade, Mantis Rider, and Goblin Rabblemaster are all very serious flips. Yohan’s list is
actually going to reveal at least two of the bombs per Collected Company over half the time!
Yes, this list is only going to reveal two creatures to Collected Company 72.4% of the time, but even when you only flip one (which is 94.5% in this list),
at least you got a one-for-one, and sometimes the flash matters. Besides, that’s part of the “fail state,” the cost you pay for the three-quarters of the
time you get a Bloodbraid Elf worth of value.
And honestly, does this look like the manabase of a man scared of percentages?
One of the most popular decks on day two, though a bit of an underachiever by the numbers, is a relatively recent phenomenon, a new breed of Mardu, Mardu
Dragons:
Creatures (18)
- 4 Stormbreath Dragon
- 4 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 2 Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury
- 4 Soulfire Grand Master
- 4 Thunderbreak Regent
Lands (25)
Spells (17)
Just as Abzan decks exist so that we can play Siege Rhino, so to do Mardu decks exist so that we can play Crackling Doom.
Six mana is so much for a deck without card draw, helping contribute to playing Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury over Dragonlord Kolaghan.
While I typically like Kolaghan better in Hordeling Outburst decks, I love that Kolaghan stacks with the other Dragons. If you play a Thunderbreak Regent
on four and dash Kolaghan on five, that’s twelve right there, to say nothing of the +2s Kolaghan might hand out to your earlier plays.
Plus Kolaghan has natural Elspeth protection!
Seriously, though, Elspeth is where I want to be. Where to put her, though? At the end of the day, every time I try to sketch out an Elspeth deck, it
always seems to want to turn into a Siege Rhino deck or a Dig Through Time deck. Here’s a look at the highest finishing Abzan Control, aka Siege Rhino +
Elspeth deck.
Creatures (15)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (26)
Spells (15)
This list is mostly just a minor update to the Abzan Midrange deck Lucas Siow used to win GP Toronto last weekend. The happy medium between traditional
Abzan Control and Abzan Megamorph is a controlling build with one sweeper and three Den Protectors.
Den Protector alongside Fleecemane Lion gives us lots of ways to play something on two against aggro while also giving us lategame power against midrange
decks. The Den Protectors are also great for letting us reuse our one-ofs when the game goes long.
I love the one Crux of Fate main now, as G/R Dragons has mostly gone away, which was the biggest spot to prefer End Hostilities. Having access to a hard
sweeper adds a big dimension to this strategy right now, as does one enchantment removal (Dromoka’s Command) and one Sorin.
I’m also a fan of Arashin Cleric alongside Drown in Sorrow to smash the red aggro decks. I am not as big a fan of the Ajani, however. Maybe we can make
room for another Read the Bones there.
Ajani’s great. It even finds Den Protector now! Have you considered maybe just being less incompetent?
The manabase is totally reasonable, although I would cut a Caves of Koilos for the fourth Temple of Silence. I respect wanting to have your lands enter the
battlefield untapped, but Temples are just so good, and drawing two painlands can be a real… ehrm… annoyance.
As mentioned above, the other appealing place to put Elspeth is in a Dig Through Time deck. I like a lot of what’s going on in Reid Duke’s list.
Creatures (4)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (27)
Spells (26)
- 2 Last Breath
- 2 Divination
- 4 Dissolve
- 1 Perilous Vault
- 2 End Hostilities
- 4 Dig Through Time
- 2 Valorous Stance
- 1 Ojutai's Command
- 4 Anticipate
- 4 Silumgar's Scorn
Sideboard
There are a lot of things to like about this list besides the smooth manacurve and abundance of permission.
Dragonlord Ojutai, Elspeth, Sun’s Champion, and Dig Through Time are three of the best cards in Standard. This deck gets to use all three and finds them
more often, using the full playset of Anticipates, as well as a couple Divinations.
Divination is frequently underrated! When cards like Thoughtseize are popular, Divination shines. Besides, this is a deck that really needs to play a land
on each of the first five turns. Even with 27 land and 4 Anticipates, we’re only 78% to drawn five of those by turn 5 on the play.
With 31 of our cards producing mana or typically producing mana, Divination is basically a mana source for the purposes of getting up to five. Going from
31 hits to 33 hits brings us up to 85%, a pretty big improvement. Additionally, we have Dig Through Time, Dissolve, and Temple of Enlightenment to aide
this goal.
Speaking of Temples, I am not sold on the three Mystic Monasteries. I typically don’t mind “off-color” tri-lands as additional duals for two-color control
decks; however, I am not so sure we need this much white mana.
21 sources of blue? That’s a lot, but Silumgar’s Scorn is a totally defensible reason. Given that we’ve only got four Dragons, Scorn is going to be on
Force Spike mode fairly often, at least early, so we really need to be able to play it on turn 2 and get it out of our hand.
Seventeen sources of white, however, along with a playset of Anticipates and two Divinations in a deck that doesn’t need double white until turn 5? That’s
a lot.
Reducing the total white count in the deck from seventeen to sixteen reduces our chances of hitting double white on turn 5 by about 1%. It also reduces our
chances of having a white source on turn 2 by about 1%. In exchange, we get to play with another Temple! I am not sure where we want to draw the line, but
if I were playing a deck like this, I would try one Temple of Epiphany in place of a Mystic Monastery and see how that feels.
I like the use of a ton of cheap sideboard cards. While U/W doesn’t always have the best of it on turn 2 in its maindeck, one of its big strengths is just
how great the two-drop interaction gets out of the sideboard. The one “expensive” card I would want to consider making room for is the second Perilous
Vault. I just love it against slow, midrangey decks, whether they have Whips or Masteries, Lions or Raptors.
The maindeck Perilous Vault is basically this build’s catch-all. “Where is the Ugin? The Pearl Lake Ancient?” This list is more focused on brute forcing
people with power rather than being able to solve all possible problems.
I’m not normally a big Ojutai’s Command maindeck guy; however, the format has really gone in a direction that is pretty favorable for it. It’s a fantastic
option against Dragonlord Ojutai, and even countering a Siege Rhino is a big game. Against red aggro, an extra four life goes a long way, to say nothing of
bouncing a Rabblemaster or getting a Nyx-Fleece Ram back. If we were going to play a second, it would have to be in place of a Divination, I think, but I’m
not sure I’d want to make such a swap.
Whether it’s Abzan Control, U/W Control, or some new Elspeth deck that hasn’t been invented yet, this weekend, I would play Elspeth.
Wait. Elspeth deck that hasn’t been invented yet? What does that look like…?