Chicken Little
I’m on the outside looking in. This Standard format seems to have slipped away from me somehow. When did B/G Constrictor suddenly become unplayable? Why is Four-Color Saheeli more popular than the Jeskai Control version? Why is Walking Ballista in these Mardu Vehicles decks?
I don’t know and I honestly don’t care. The only redeeming factor of the current Standard format is that the games are usually pretty interactive, tough to navigate, and usually pretty fun. But I can only cast Gideon, Ally of Zendikar or Felidar Guardian so much before a sharp pain starts to creep in right behind my eyes. But is this Standard format broken? Does anything need to be banned? Probably not. After the last round of bannings, a lot of people were pushed away from playing the format. More bannings will just lead to more of that sentiment, making Standard too dangerous to touch. Why spend $400 on a deck when your marquee card is going to be useless in five weeks’ time?
And that’s the really scary part. I own a huge portion of the entire Standard format on both Magic Online and in paper. At the drop of a hat, my collection could effectively lose hundreds of dollars in value as my deck(s) become worthless; yet for the health of the game, and to rectify certain mistakes, it might be a necessary evil. If it were up to me, someone would have been fired over the text of Felidar Guardian. Instead, the damage that the Saheeli Rai combo is doing to the Standard format is being pushed onto us, the consumers. If Saheeli Rai gets banned (more like Felidar Guardian because it’s only uncommon), people are going to be angry, and fewer people are going to want to play Standard.
For some reason, there is a huge gap in the happiness of the Standard player and the happiness of the Modern player, and I think that is directly related to how banning cards works in Magic. In Modern, many of the cards getting banned are only seeing play in one or two decks…out of the literal dozens of decks available for play. When Golgari Grave-Troll got banned, those devoted Dredge players weren’t all that unhappy. They knew it was too good, and they had expected it for over half a year. After all, it was banned with the inception of Modern, so those players who picked up Dredge did so knowing there was a chance it would be banned again. Plus, the deck is still mostly functional, albeit a good bit weaker.
But that only affected a small percentage of Modern players. That’s the big difference between banning cards in Standard versus banning cards in a bigger format. If you ban Felidar Guardian, you’re effectively nullifying an entire deck that about 1/3 or 1/4 of the population is playing. When Standard is a format with two to four playable decks, banning anything is going to alienate a large percentage of the field. Before Reflector Mage, Smuggler’s Copter, and Emrakul, the Promised End were banned, the last cards cut from Standard were Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Back then, there weren’t too many playable strategies other than CawBlade, so people expected it. The deck was so good that everyone playing it expected something to happen and weren’t surprised by it at all. Plus, those cards were sure to see playing in older formats.
When you ban a card like Felidar Guardian (effectively killing Saheeli Rai in the process), or even Reflector Mage, you’re tanking an entire Standard deck that is very unlikely to hold any value outside of Standard. And when you start doing that often (twice in two months, to be clear), you are going to lose a significant portion of your player base simply due to the fear of their favorite cards or decks getting sniped from the format.
All of this is to say that I don’t think anything should be banned from Standard. Yes, the Saheeli Rai combo is probably going to get hit, and it shouldn’t have seen print in the first place, but it plays a vital role in keeping other busted stuff in check. Just the threat of the Saheeli Rai combo is cannibalizing all the other combo decks in the format. After all, why would you play Aetherworks Marvel when you could just do the same thing with Saheeli Rai and actually win the game?
The past year has been a pretty awkward time for Standard, and I think much of that has to do with the direction they’re taking. By printing overly powerful cards, consistent three- to five-color manabases, and making mistakes in design and development, they’re putting a lot of pressure on us to cope. And they’ve been doing this for a long time. On occasion, some of those Standard formats have been pretty great. At other times, you see two or three decks rise well above the rest of the field, and we usually have to slog through it for months (years?). I thought that pressure would be alleviated by the twice-yearly rotation schedule, but even that was too much for many of the casual players in the game.
So I ask you, what is your solution? I don’t have a good one, and Wizards of the Coast certainly doesn’t seem to either. The extra banning cycle is a smart move on their part, but one that creates an environment of uncertainty. We’re expecting Felidar Guardian to get the axe, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Aetherworks Marvel got snagged here as a result. We’ve been expecting Gideon, Ally of Zendikar to hit the bin for a very long time. Do you realize just how long Gideon, Ally of Zendikar has been terrorizing Standard? Abzan Aggro, circa 2015. That’s when I started playing Jeskai Black. Barack Obama still had fifteen months remaining in his presidency. And guess what? It’s going to be sticking around until October.
My guess? Felidar Guardian is the only card that goes away. It was a glaring mistake on their part, and banning such an oppressive, easy-to-assemble combo will open up the rest of the format. Hopefully there are at least two or three other decks waiting for Saheeli Rai to take a knee that can compete with the sheer speed and consistency of Mardu Vehicles. If not, then there will probably be something done about that deck once Amonkhet hits the shelves at the end of April.
The Modern Era
But enough about bannings. The sky isn’t falling. Magic is doing just fine, even if one of the premier formats needs some help. I have full confidence that everything will stabilize soon. With that said, Modern is still going strong, and people seem to like it a lot. The SCG Tour stop in Indianapolis led to a sold-out crowd featuring the Modern format, and the whole shebang was topped by none other than Ad Nauseam, an unexpected strategy to be sure, but one that has a long history in the Modern format.
Creatures (4)
Lands (20)
Spells (36)
It isn’t the fastest deck in the West, but it sure is consistent. And for a combo deck that is killing on the fourth turn with protection, consistency is a must. It isn’t as interactive as some combo decks (think Splinter Twin or Melira Company), but it does fight through disruption pretty well. Discard and counterspells are the main ways to keep it in check, but it has so many dig effects and copies of Pact of Negation that it can fight through both with a bit of luck and skillful maneuvering.
The main drawback to a deck like Ad Nauseam is that it is a full turn slower than most other combo decks in Modern, and it doesn’t have discard effects or (too many) counterspells to interact. Pact of Negation is not nearly as good at playing defense as it is playing offense, and it usually requires a timely Angel’s Grace to pay the heft cost. So if a deck like Ad Nauseam is currently winning large tournaments, what does that say about the format as a whole?
First of all, Modern is traditionally one of the fastest formats in Magic. Many cheap, powerful cards have been printed in the last decade or so, which means every color combination has access to efficient, worthwhile spells at the one- and two-mana slots. For a while, every deck seemed to be goldfishing against the others in an attempt to see who could ignore who the best. Infect versus Death’s Shadow versus Dredge versus Burn versus Affinity versus…you get the picture. It was the goal for each of these decks to kill on the third or fourth turn and pay as little attention as possible to what was happening on the other side of the table.
But now, with Gitaxian Probe getting the same treatment as Ponder and Preordain before it, the delve mechanic is much harder to abuse. Become Immense, once the center of attention in the Modern format thanks to Death’s Shadow and Infect, is now a distant memory. Dredge is also a lot slower without its marquee dredge card. Three major Modern decks in total have been neutered or taken down a peg in the speed department, which puts Modern in an odd spot. Death’s Shadow decks have started to look more and more like Jund, while Infect and Dredge don’t seem to have the same kick they used to. Overall, I’d say the Modern format is moving to a place where decks that can consistently win on the fourth or fifth turn through disruption are more than fine.
So long.
While everyone is busy talking about Death’s Shadow being the best deck in the format, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that it’s just the flavor of the month. Soon it will just be another Modern deck, potentially replacing old-school versions of Jund. I do think the deck is very good, but it is obviously much better when people are less prepared. The next few months will prove whether or not the deck is too good, but my gut is telling me that people just weren’t coming at it with the right cards or strategies. Much like Infect when it first came on the Modern scene, people will become more aware of the strategy and find ways to adapt. Whether that means switching decks or just playing more cards that beat Death’s Shadow and Tarmogoyf has yet to be determined, but I’m confident the shift will happen.
With that said, it is still a deck that people will play, and it is currently at the top of everyone’s radar, so what can we do to beat it? The best answer is likely a deck that can interact with the opponent’s creatures while simultaneously pushing toward a big finish. Whether that means card advantage (think Sphinx’s Revelation) or battlefield advantage (think Collected Company) is up in the air. My gut tells me that a prepared Abzan Company pilot should easy put the brakes on this Death’s Shadow crap. Here’s what I’m thinking:
Creatures (28)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 3 Eternal Witness
- 2 Wall of Roots
- 1 Big Game Hunter
- 4 Kitchen Finks
- 1 Murderous Redcap
- 3 Noble Hierarch
- 1 Qasali Pridemage
- 3 Viscera Seer
- 1 Spellskite
- 2 Melira, Sylvok Outcast
- 1 Scavenging Ooze
- 2 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
Lands (22)
Spells (10)
This list is just a starting point for what we can do to make the Death’s Shadow matchup a little bit better. Big Game Hunter and Fatal Push can help contain their creatures and have a bit of value in other Tarmogoyf matchups. An early Eternal Witness getting back Fatal Push is similar to the Snapcaster Mage into Fatal Push control draws that I talked about last week while playing an important role in helping reassemble the combo in the face of disruption.
You need to be able to play a fair game against Death’s Shadow while at the same time maintaining the ability to combo off against other unfair strategies. In essence, this deck is just a variant of Splinter Twin. We have backdoor ways to kill the opponent out of nowhere (or just gain arbitrarily large life), but we also have a host of cheap creatures that provide pressure and promote synergy. Many of the games this deck wins are on the back of Gavony Township and an onslaught of small creatures. And since many of these creatures provide natural card advantage, traditional spot removal doesn’t really work all that well.
You’ll notice I opted to leave out Renegade Rallier. I’m not a fan in this particular strategy. After playing against the version of this deck featuring Renegade Rallier on multiple occasions, I don’t think it needs more “value creatures,” and the alternate combo with Saffi Eriksdotter just doesn’t seem worthwhile. There could be an argument to play one copy over one Eternal Witness, but there just aren’t enough powerful early threats to bring back. If it could revive Kitchen Finks, I’d definitely reconsider.
But Abzan Company isn’t the only strategy that can put a hurtin’ on Death’s Shadow. Bant Eldrazi has put up some surprising numbers against it over the last few weeks. Any deck that deals itself a ton of damage is going to have a tough time overcoming the sheer speed of an early Reality Smasher, but there are a lot of other reasons why Bant Eldrazi is well-positioned against this Death’s Shadow deck. For one, their main sources of removal all kill Death’s Shadow and Tarmogoyf. The backup plan of Lingering Souls is also invalidated by the trample of Reality Smasher, all while dodging most of the removal that Death’s Shadow pilots are currently playing. With Fatal Push on everyone’s mind, Reality Smasher seems very good right now.
But the Bant Eldrazi deck also has a lot of good topdecks, which is important when your Death’s Shadow opponent will likely hit your hand with a discard spell or two. Ancient Stirrings not only lets you keep land-light hands, it also gives you more virtual threats as the game progresses. In the case that you’re both in topdeck mode, Ancient Stirrings is just about the best possible draw. While the early mana accelerators are vulnerable to Tarfire and Fatal Push, those cards are only there to help you race the faster decks in the format. If Death’s Shadow is playing the game of ripping your hand apart, you should have plenty of time to find an answer to their threats, or even just more threats that they should have trouble dealing with.
While I haven’t played much with Bant Eldrazi in the last few months, I have watched it in action quite a bit. The things you can learn by watching high-pressure matches of Magic are often more valuable than what you learn while playing the matchup yourself. Instead of only seeing one half of the equation, you’re able to get a better feel about what’s happening, which leads you to making better decisions down the line. That information can help you with in-game decisions, mulligans, and even building your deck before the tournament starts.
Creatures (25)
- 1 Birds of Paradise
- 4 Noble Hierarch
- 4 Drowner of Hope
- 4 Eldrazi Displacer
- 4 Reality Smasher
- 4 Thought-Knot Seer
- 4 Matter Reshaper
Lands (24)
Spells (11)
This version is fairly close to Dan Musser’s list, with one major exception: Matter Reshaper over Eldrazi Skyspawner. I’ve noticed that the colored mana requirement can be a little rough on opening sequences featuring Ancient Stirrings, but I also think that Matter Reshaper is just a better card at the moment. Both play defense fairly well, but I value the extra card that Matter Reshaper provides over the mana boost and extra body of Eldrazi Skyspawner. Flying isn’t exactly clutch at the moment either.
Aside from that, I love the maindeck Blessed Alliance. Being able to “donate” extra life points to your opponent is pretty hilarious against Death’s Shadow, but it is also rare that you’re being attacked by more than one or two creatures at a time in the current Modern format. With how strong Engineered Explosives seems at the moment, I felt it ideal to add another to the sideboard, as well as adding a few more ways to interact with opposing combo decks in Stubborn Denial.
I’ve never liked Rest in Peace in the deck over Grafdigger’s Cage. Being cheaper and easier to find via Ancient Stirrings, not to mention solving most of the same problems (while helping against Collected Company decks) makes the Cage infinitely more valuable in my book.
The single Oust is a nod to Death’s Shadow as a virtual fifth copy of Path to Exile. Plus, giving your opponent a few points of life could lead to some nifty two-for-one blowouts against Death’s Shadow. I haven’t thought about it too much, but there is a chance that Oust is actually better than Path to Exile in the current metagame, but I think the downside of giving your opponent a few points of life matters too much in other matchups where you need to race.
Everything else should be self-explanatory.
The Season Finale
There aren’t a ton of events coming up after this weekend, and I’m expecting a bit of an upheaval in Standard after the banning announcements on Monday. What gets banned (or unbanned, maybe?) remains to be seen, but I’m confident that they’re going to do something to even out the format. I haven’t seen a format this “solved” since Mono-Black Devotion, Mono-Blue Devotion, and Esper Control from Return to Ravnica and Theros.
What cards do you think they will ban, if any? Will the bannings make things worse? Will people quit Standard altogether and just invest in Modern? Will Angela and William finally kiss?
Find out…next week, on The Sky Is Falling!