This month is a watershed in data collection, because for the first time in 2004 I’ve gone a whole month with just one missing decklist (FCG). I know some of you don’t get the major physical stimulation I do from that knowledge, but I’m sure there are some of you that feel the same. I feel vindicated for my efforts to harass and torment the decklist underreporting of the world. This cajolery yielded fruit such as two Frenchie decklists that they still don’t want published, but are in the totals anyway.
One very significant note is that the Waterbury Top 8 lists have not gone up as of me typing this, so I’m bumping that to May. I don’t think adding it in would make any difference to B&R-policy-minded observers, so no worries. (Steve Menendian thinks I should delay the whole metagame article each month until I’m sure I’ve got all the relevant tournaments. I say it’s better to just delay what’s reported late, on the grounds that it doesn’t influence the metagame choices of others until the individual tournament is published. Smmennycakes had some other perspective on my methodology in #TheManaDrain, which I will be addressing in a near-future article.)
April Top 8s
2004-03-28 Milan (71 players)
1. Keeper
2. Rector Tendrils
3. Affinity
4. Hulk Smash
5. Dragon
6. Madness
7. TnT
8. Dragon
2004-03-28 Faraos Cigarer (74 players)
1. U/R Landstill
2. Rector Trix
3. Workshop Slavery
4. Affinity
5. IsoKeeper
6. Modular
7. TnT
8. Ankh Sligh
2004-04-04 Mol (60 players)
1. B/W Nether Void
2. Workshop Slavery
3. U/R Fish
4. Control Slavery
5. Modular
6. Draw7.dec
7. R/W Trinistax
8. Control Slavery
2004-04-04 Pavia (61 players)(Missing #3 FCG)
1. MUD
2. Keeper
3. Food Chain Goblins
4. Dragon
5. TPS
6. MUD
7. U/rPhid
8. 12-land Stompy
2004-04-18 Dulmen (128 players)
1. Control Slavery
2. Hulk Smash
3. IsoKeeper
4. Vengeur Masque
5. U/W Landstill
6. Keeper
7. Charbelcher
8. Workshop Slavery
2004-04-18 Milan (69 players)
1. Affinity
2. TPS
3. Keeper
4. Hulk Smash
5. Madness
6. TPS
7. Rector Tendrils
8. Goblin Sligh
2004-04-18 Washington, DC (82 players)
1. U/R Fish
2. Hulk Smash
3. Dragon
4. 7/10 Split
5. Hulk Smash
6. Landstill
7. Hulk Smash
8. U/R Fish
2004-04-25 Paris (68 players)
1. Workshop Slavery
2. Modular
3. Vengeur Masque
4. TnT
5. TnT
6. TriniStax
7. Walamies
8. TriniStax
2004-04-25 Turin (91 players)
1. Madness
2. Stacker
3. TPS
4. Keeper
5. TPS
6. MonoBlue Control
7. Vengeur Masque
8. Dragon
Nine tournaments totaled (60,61,68,70,71,74,82,91,128 = 705 players; Average of 78 players)
6 Hulk Smash (2,2,4,4,5,7)
5 Keeper (1,2,3,4,6)
5 TPS (2,3,5,5,6)
5 Dragon (3,4,5,8,8)
4 Workshop Slavery (1,2,3,8)
4 TnT (4,5,7,7)
3 Affinity (1,3,4)
3 Rector (2,2,7)
3 Landstill (1,5,6)
3 Madness (1,5,6)
3 Control Slavery (1,4,8)
3 Modular (2,5,6)
3 Vengeur Masque (3,4,7)
3 Trinistax (6,7,8)
2 Fish (1,3)
2 MUD (1,6)
2 IsoKeeper (3,5)
1 Nether Void (1)
1 Stacker (2)
1 Food Chain Goblins (3)
1 7/10 Split (4)
1 Draw7.dec (6)
1 MonoBlue Control (6)
1 Charbelcher (7)
1 U/rPhid (7)
1 Walamies (7)
1 12-land Stompy (8)
1 Ankh Sligh (8)
1 Goblin Sligh (8)
(1) Open or closed universe?
Type One is having a little trouble demonstrating the theory of Constructed that only a few decks are really viable at a given time. It’s rare to find a segment of Magic history where a competitive Constructed metagame was close to as scattered as this, and I for one think this is a phenomenon indicating that people are playing bad decks for personal reasons. (Or worse, reasons of under-playtesting.) The weird news, though, about being a closed-universe Constructed theorist these days is that there are numbers showing your case and disproving it almost simultaneously. Check this out:
2003-09&10 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 6,8,5,7,8 = 6.8
—–Mirrodin legal
2003-11&12 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 4,7,5,6,8 = 6.0
—–Restriction: Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Lion’s Eye Diamond
2004-Janu. – 26 archetypes (4.4 / T8) 6,8,7,7,7 = 7.0
2004-Febr. – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,7,7,7,7 = 6.8
—–Darksteel legal
2004-Marc. – 34 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,8,8,7,7,6,7,6,7 = 6.9
2004-Apri. – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0
The first way I looked at it (which I posted about on TMD) was to divide the number of archetypes in a given month (or two-month groups as in 2003) by the number of tournaments in that group. This is tilted toward March and April, though, because they each have nine tournaments to five in all the other periods, and as the number of tournaments goes up, there’s a diminishing return on the number of different decks added to the month. (In other words, if you had a thousand tournaments, you wouldn’t expect four thousand decks, so the decks-per-T8 measure is artificially lower in larger samples.) However, this comparison does show a tightening of the number of played archetypes over time.
Unfortunately, the more accurate way is to look at each individual Top 8 and count the number of archetypes, then average it. At the end of each line, you can see how well this went. By the end, I was actually surprised that the recent Washington DC tournament had a mere five archetypes in the Top 8. Other formats would think that mana was pelting their foreheads from heaven if they could be so diverse over such a long period of time. In Type One, however, we recognize the mixed blessing of a diverse metagame. (For starters, your sideboard isn’t big enough. For the rest, I think Smmenen is covering it soon or covered it between this writing and the time it’s posted. I’ll leave him as much of his thunder as possible.)
I’ve been so mystified by this difference from other formats (despite the high pressure to leave out mid-power-level cards because of restricted bombs), that I tried the following analysis-by-percent-appearance of the data since I started this gig.
Average Showing – Monthly Showings (Q4 2003 through April) [Deck Name]
_8.5% – _1.3, _7.5, 12.5, 12.5, _8.5 Hulk Smash
_7.5% – 17.5, _2.5, _5.0, _5.6, _6.9 Dragon
_6.3% – _2.5, 10.0, _5.0, _6.9, _6.9 Keeper
_6.3% – 11.3, _2.5, _5.0, _4.2, _8.5 Storm Combo
_6.1% – _3.8, 12.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2 Madness
_6.0% – _7.5, _0.0, 12.5, _5.6, _4.2 Rector
_5.7% – _6.3, _7.5, _7.5, _2.8, _4.2 Stax*
_4.7% – _5.0, _5.0, _5.0, _2.8, _5.6 TnT
_3.9% – _6.3, _2.5, _5.0, _2.8, _2.8 IsoKeeper
_3.8% – _2.5, _7.5, _5.0, _2.8, _1.4 Stacker
_3.4% – _0.0, _5.0, _5.0, _5.6, _1.4 FCG / Gobvantage
_2.9% – _3.8, _2.5, _0.0, _5.6, _2.8 Fish
_2.9% – _0.0, _5.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2 Landstill
_2.8% – _3.8, _5.0, _2.5, _1.4, _1.4 Goblin Sligh
_2.7% – _1.3, _2.5, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2 Control Slavery
_2.7% – _5.0, _2.5, _5.0, _0.0, _1.4 GAT (includes IsoGAT, Grostill)
_2.4% – _2.5, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _4.2 Vengeur Masque
_2.4% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _5.6 Workshop Slavery*
_1.8% – _0.0, _2.5, _2.5, _1.4, _2.8 MUD / wMUD
_1.6% – _2.5, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0 SuperGro
_1.3% – _0.0, _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0 Oshawa Stompy
_1.1% – _1.3, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4 Sligh
_1.1% – _0.0, _0.0, _2.5, _2.8, _0.0 MadDragon
_1.1% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0 R/G Beatz
_1.1% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _1.4 U/rPhid
_0.8% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2 Affinity
_0.8% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _1.4 Charbelcher
_0.8% – _0.0, _2.5, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0 EBA
_0.8% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _4.2 Modular
_0.8% – _2.5, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4 Monoblue
(Less than 0.5% of a couple dozen – I’m not exaggerating on that – archetypes appeared. These are not listed.)
*: One January deck classified as Workshop Slavery, upon reexamining the decklist, is more of”Stax with two Mindslaver,” and was moved to count as such. Another was called Stax and yet was actually a Workshop-Mana Drain–Isochron Scepter deck (which, by the way, still makes no sense).
First of all, you can see how ridiculous that is. I’ve been looking at some Regionals stuff (which may or may not end up in an article; SCG has writers who cover that pretty well and I don’t like to rehash topics), and while there’s a bunch of Standard decks that appear in minute percentages of the qualifying slots, there are mostly decks you can count on one hand that are worth paying significant attention to. Going by the above table, there’s no possible way to express serious confidence in your gauntlet until you get down to the 2% average-appearance line. Otherwise you leave out important decks like Slavery. And for as long as that table is, there are plenty I’ve left off with even smaller pie shares.*
*: Suicide, Void, Oath, Secret Force, Snake-Tongue, White Weenie, 12-land Stompy, The Rock, BUG Funk, Zoo, Terravore LD, Walamies, Ankh Sligh, The Shining, Old School Expulsion, Reanimator… (sixteen right there, staggeringly enough)
Personally, even though there’s plenty to be said about Mana Drain distorting the environment, I think everything should be left alone just to give the overpowered decks more time to hammer into bad players’ heads that they should be playing something broken, not something weak and silly. It seems odd to hope for reduced diversity, as this type of free-for-all is the subject of frequent wet dreams by rogue deckbuilders, but really, it’s not realistic when people are winning with bad, underwhelming aggro. I’m fine with the theory that Vintage is inherently more diverse than Standard or even Extended, but I shouldn’t have to list upwards of thirty archetypes just to be remotely thorough.
(2) There’s always room for Type One.
In March, I had nine 50+ player tournaments because almost half were from February. This time, seven of nine were from the actual month of April, a marked increase which shows no sign of waning. For as much growth as the format has had since Oscar Tan and his generation (he’s what, five years older than me?) started forcing everyone to notice it, we’ve still got room for more.
(3) Pip’s Watch List
Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr.
_2.8, _3.4, _3.1, _3.0 – 27 Yawgmoth’s Will
10.4, _8.5, 10.2, _9.3 – 84 Mana Drain
_7.8, _6.4, _4.7, _8.9 – 80 Mishra’s Workshop
_5.2, _7.4, _6.3, _6.3 – 57 Cunning Wish
_1.6, _5.6, _4.0, _4.7 – 42 Dark Ritual
_2.4, _3.4, _1.3, _3.8 – 34 Thirst for Knowledge
_6.4, _4.0, _4.0, _3.6 – 32 Bazaar of Baghdad
_3.0, _3.2, _3.4, _2.1 – 19 Intuition
_2.2, _3.8, _3.0, _2.1 – 19 Psychatog
_1.6, _0.0, _3.0, _1.3 – 12 Elvish Spirit Guide
The French – possibly under mind controlling influences from the Workshop-decklist-producing supercomputer Matthieu Durand a.k.a. Toad -managed to sneak twenty-four Workshops into the results in one lonely Top 8. Most of them were in aggro decks, so I don’t take the”most Workshops ever” as a bad sign at all. Nothing stands out as dangerous, especially with the lack of a high-performing deck making the environment unworkable. This is the last one of these reports before the June 1 DCI announcement, and I can safely say nothing deserves to get axed.
As usual, here is the full list of played cards. This month, I managed to save a lot of time counting thanks to automation from Jeek, the script monkey.
(Missing 1 Food Chain Goblins list.)
76 Island
39 Forest
30 Mountain
15 Swamp
3 Plains
56 Mox Sapphire
56 Black Lotus
56 Ancestral Recall
52 Sol Ring
51 Mox Jet
50 Time Walk
50 Mox Pearl
49 Mox Ruby
47 Mox Emerald
40 Mana Crypt
38 Strip Mine
35 Demonic Tutor
28 Tolarian Academy
28 Mana Vault
27 Yawgmoth’s Will
25 Vampiric Tutor
23 Library of Alexandria
21 Memory Jar
21 Tinker
20 Timetwister
20 Mystical Tutor
19 Fact or Fiction
16 Lotus Petal
14 Wheel of Fortune
16 Mind Twist
13 Balance
10 Necropotence
9 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
8 Windfall
7 Frantic Search
7 Enlightened Tutor
7 Crop Rotation
6 Stroke of Genius
6 Mind’s Desire
5 Moxen
5 Lion’s Eye Diamond
5 Gush
4 Entomb
4 Burning Wish
4 Grim Monolith
3 Yawgmoth’s Will
2 Voltaic Key
2 Time Spiral
2 Mox Diamond
2 Fork
2 Chrome Mox
1 Fastbond
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Channel
1 Black Vise
184 Force of Will – Wins the Prize… again!
139 Brainstorm
119 Polluted Delta
109 Wasteland
108 Volcanic Island
105 Underground Sea
86 Red Elemental Blast – Highest Red
84 Mana Drain
82 Rack and Ruin
80 Mishra’s Workshop
72 Chalice of the Void – Highest Artifact
70 Goblin Welder
66 Stifle
63 Fire/Ice – Highest Gold
62 Tormod’s Crypt
58 Duress – Highest Black
57 Trinisphere
57 Cunning Wish
56 Flooded Strand
51 Tropical Island
47 Naturalize – Highest Green
46 Blue Elemental Blast
45 Triskelion
42 Dark Ritual
40 Accumulated Knowledge
39 Squee, Goblin Nabob
36 Wooded Foothills
35 Tundra
35 Survival of the Fittest
34 Thirst for Knowledge
33 Null Rod
32 Bazaar of Baghdad
31 Tangle Wire
31 Misdirection
31 Metalworker
30 Mishra’s Factory
29 Swords to Plowshares – Highest White
28 Juggernaut
27 City of Brass
26 Xantid Swarm
26 Taiga
26 Glimmervoid
26 Arcbound Ravager
23 Standstill
23 Hurkyl’s Recall
23 Ancient Tomb
22 Smokestack
22 Pyrostatic Pillar
22 Pyroblast
22 Pernicious Deed
22 Gorilla Shaman
21 Mindslaver
21 Blood Moon
20 Sphere of Resistance
20 Gemstone Mine
19 Psychatog
19 Maze of Ith
19 Intuition
19 Coffin Purge
19 Chain of Vapor
19 Birds of Paradise
18 Tendrils of Agony
18 Skullclamp
18 Defense Grid
18 Deep Analysis
17 Worldgorger Dragon
17 Decree of Justice
16 Scrubland[/author]“][author name="Scrubland"]Scrubland[/author]
16 Platinum Angel
16 Animate Dead
15 Skeletal Scrying
15 Seat of the Synod
15 Necromancy
15 Faerie Conclave
15 Disenchant
14 Nevinyrral’s Disk
14 Karn, Silver Golem
14 Counterspell
14 Arcbound Worker
13 Oxidize
13 Gilded Lotus
13 Cabal Therapy
12 Windswept Heath
12 Wild Mongrel
12 Thoughtcast
12 Shivan Reef
12 Rebuild
12 Quirion Ranger
12 Phyrexian Dreadnought
12 Orim’s Chant
12 Illusionary Mask
12 Frogmite
12 Elvish Spirit Guide
12 Disciple of the Vault
12 Cloud of Faeries
12 Basking Rootwalla
12 Arcbound Crusher
12 Academy Rector
12 Anger
11 Volrath’s Shapeshifter
11 Spiketail Hatchling
11 Powder Keg
11 Myr Enforcer
10 Sundering Titan
10 Lightning Bolt
10 Hydroblast
10 Ground Seal
10 Grim Lavamancer
10 Energy Flux
10 Curiosity
10 Artifact Mutation
9 Su-Chi
9 Petrified Field
9 Ophidian
9 Future Sight
9 Exalted Angel
9 Duplicant
9 City of Traitors
9 Chill
9 Bayou
8 Pentavus
8 Mogg Fanatic
8 Land Grant
8 Impulse
8 Gaea’s Blessing
8 Fiery Temper
8 Daze
8 Chain Lightning
8 Bloodstained Mire
8 Arrogant Wurm
7 Verdant Force
7 Roar of the Wurm
7 Pyrokinesis
7 Price of Progress
7 Phyrexian Negator
7 Oath of Druids
7 Morphling
7 Echoing Truth
7 Berserk
6 Violet Eruption
6 Uktabi Orangutan
6 Sword of Fire and Ice
6 Solemn Simulacrum
6 Scald
6 Memnarch
6 Isochron Scepter
6 Goblin Vandal
6 Flametongue Kavu
6 Dance of the Dead
6 Arcane Laboratory
6 Ambassador Laquatus
5 Vault of Whispers
5 The Abyss
5 Sylvan Library
5 Sphere of Law
5 Rushing River
5 Meltdown
5 Lightning Greaves
5 Great Furnace
5 Genesis Chamber
5 Firestorm
4 Waterfront Bouncer
4 Tinder Wall
4 Teferi’s Response
4 Sylvan Safekeeper
4 Skyshroud Elite
4 Sinkhole
4 Shrapnel Blast
4 Shattering Pulse
4 Seal of Cleansing
4 Scrivener
4 Savannah
4 Rushwood Legate
4 Rogue Elephant
4 River Boa
4 Rancor
4 Propaganda
4 Plateau
4 Nantuko Shade
4 Myr Retriever
4 Jackal Pup
4 Incinerate
4 Hidden Stag
4 Hidden Gibbons
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Goblin Cadets
4 Giant Growth
4 Ghazban Ogre
4 Ensnaring Bridge
4 Druid Lyrist
4 Diabolic Edict
4 Cursed Scroll
4 Circular Logic
4 Circle of Protection: Red
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Bounty of the Hunt
4 Annul
4 Ankh of Mishra
3 Well of Knowledge – WTF of the Month
3 Viashino Heretic
3 Siege-Gang Commander
3 Shadowmage Infiltrator
3 Seal of Removal
3 Sacred Ground
3 Rootwater Thief
3 Reckless Charge
3 Ray of Revelation
3 Phage the Untouchable
3 Oblivion Stone
3 Mind’s Eye
3 Merchant Scroll
3 Lim-Dul’s Vault
3 Leonin Abunas
3 Illusions of Grandeur
3 Goblin Goon
3 Emerald Charm
3 Dwarven Miner
3 Dust to Dust
3 Donate
3 Diminishing Returns
3 Darksteel Colossus
3 Damping Matrix
3 Brain Freeze
3 Barbarian Ring
3 Arcbound Stinger
3 Abeyance
2 Wonder
2 Withered Wretch
2 Winter Orb
2 Wall of Roots
2 Voidmage Prodigy
2 Vindicate
2 True Believer
2 Terminate
2 Talisman of Dominance
2 Smother
2 Riftstone Portal
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
2 Nether Void
2 Moment’s Peace
2 Moat
2 Meddling Mage
2 Masticore
2 Mana Leak
2 Living Wish
2 Karplusan Forest
2 Goblin Sharpshooter
2 Gilded Drake
2 Geth’s Grimoire
2 Genesis
2 Elf Replica
2 Crash (inferred from”Crush”)
2 Compulsion
2 Careful Study
2 Bind
2 Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]
2 Badlands
1 Viridian Zealot
1 Viridian Shaman
1 Unsummon
1 Underground River
1 Tradewind Rider
1 Spoils of the Vault
1 Spike Weaver
1 Sliver Queen
1 Renounce
1 Pulse of the Fields
1 Primitive Justice
1 Meditate
1 Karplusan Forest
1 Humility
1 Gigapede
1 Gemini Engine
1 Flash Flood
1 Elvish Scrapper
1 Elvish Lyrist
1 Ebony Charm
1 Divert
1 Dismiss
1 Deconstruct
1 Darksteel Citadel
1 Boneshredder
1 Aura Fracture
1 Armageddon
1 Arcbound Overseer
1 Adarkar Wastes
That’s all for now, faithful reader.
Philip Stanton
a.k.a.”Dr. Sylvan”, Moderator on TheManaDrain.com
prstanto at uiuc.edu