Look, not every metagame is balanced.
In fact, some metagames aren’t even remotely balanced.
That’s just a fact of life. It’s hard out here for a brewer. The mean streets of Kaladesh aren’t for the faint of heart. Maybe they’ll ban Attune with Aether or Rogue Refiner, or something. No use sitting around, waiting for the world to change. This past weekend has given us a lot of results to work with, thanks to Standard Grand Prix on three continents.
Spoiler: Energy was over half the metagame and won two of the events outright.
This isn’t about them, though.
That’s a known issue.
Sure, there are insights to be gleaned surrounding the latest minor tweaks to Temur Energy and Four-Color Energy, helping them reestablish strength above Sultai Energy (which may have just been propped up by the incredible average strength of its pilots).
This isn’t about them.
This is about the variety of Grixis decks, the Approach decks, the Pummeler decks. Given the conspicuous decision not to post Day 2 metagame data, all we’ve got to go on is the Top 16 metagame data from the three GPs. (GP Atlanta actually posted the Top 32 data, but I decided to just use the Top 16 from each prior to looking. It wouldn’t have changed much, though.)
Let’s take a look at the respective Top 16 metagames, weighted by finish. (As always, winner = 6, finalist = 5, semifinalist = 4, quarterfinalist = 3, Top 16 = 2)
|
Archetype |
GP Atlanta |
GP Shanghai |
GP Warsaw |
Top 16 Meta |
|
Four-Color Energy |
29.79% |
14.89% |
27.66% |
24.11% |
|
Ramunap Red |
25.53% |
40.43% |
4.26% |
23.40% |
|
Temur Energy |
14.89% |
23.40% |
27.66% |
21.99% |
|
Approach |
12.77% |
8.51% |
0.00% |
7.09% |
|
Gift |
4.26% |
0.00% |
14.89% |
6.38% |
|
Mardu Vehicles |
8.51% |
0.00% |
6.38% |
4.96% |
|
Sultai Energy |
0.00% |
0.00% |
12.77% |
4.26% |
|
Grixis Thopters |
0.00% |
8.51% |
0.00% |
2.84% |
|
U/B Midrange |
4.26% |
4.26% |
0.00% |
2.84% |
|
G/U Pummeler |
0.00% |
0.00% |
6.38% |
2.13% |
Okay, so there are three pillars of the format, each over 20% of the top tables. Beyond that, there’s a variety of less common strategies, ranging from Approach to God-Pharaoh’s Gift, Thopters to Pummeler.
To start with, let’s take a look at those three pillars:
- Four-Color Energy
- Ramunap Red
- Temur Energy
Hey, wait a minute! Four-Color Energy and Temur Energy aren’t really that different as decks. They have differences, of course, but they have a lot more in common than not. What happens if we collapse the metagame data into like strategies?
|
Archetype |
GP Atlanta |
GP Shanghai |
GP Warsaw |
Top16 Meta |
|
Energy |
44.68% |
38.30% |
68.09% |
50.35% |
|
Red Aggro |
34.04% |
40.43% |
10.64% |
28.37% |
|
Misc. Blue Decks |
21.28% |
21.28% |
21.28% |
21.28% |
Oh, I see.
Just to be clear, in this table, Energy is only including Four-Color Energy, Temur Energy, and Sultai Energy. It does not include G/U Pummeler, let alone the various Minister of Inquiries, Harnessed Lightning, Glimmer of Genius, Aethersphere Harvester, and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner cards among the Red Aggro and Rogue decks. If you want to just count the energy mechanic as a whole, we’re talking well over 90%.
Also, I didn’t even think about it until scrutinizing this list, but the fact that all of the fringe archetypes are blue is at least interesting.
Let’s look at some of this weekend’s heroes attacking the metagame from sweet new directions, trying to prey on a format that in some ways reminds me of when Modern was half Eldrazi Aggro with the rest of the format split between Affinity and “everything else put together.”
Up first, we’ve got Okada Naoya’s fairly rad Grixis Thopters deck with three different Thopter makers, not to mention Aether Swooper making Servos.
What’s more, his list can retrigger the token-makers repeatedly thanks to Decoction Module, which also makes Whirler Virtuoso and Aether Swooper work overtime (and in fact can actually lead to a loop, if you ever get three and a Whirler).
Creatures (14)
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (17)
Spells (28)
Inventor’s Goggles is an excellent improvise and Spire of Industry enabler, as well a way to make all these tokens into bigger threats.
With thirteen Artificers, we also get a fair bit of tempo by buffing our creatures early and without extra mana expenditure.
You know, since it’s a Standard deck.
I would love if this turned out to be the right mix of threats, but that might not be as crazy as it sounds. The Energy decks have access to such a diverse mix of interactive spells. It helps to be able to attack from many different angles.
Speaking of different angles, Sergio Ferry’s Grixis list features a few of the same basic staples that tons of decks use but goes a decidedly more “normal” midrange route.
Creatures (19)
- 3 Whirler Virtuoso
- 4 Glint-Sleeve Siphoner
- 2 Gifted Aetherborn
- 4 Glorybringer
- 1 Vizier of Many Faces
- 1 The Scarab God
- 2 Champion of Wits
- 2 Hostage Taker
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (23)
Spells (16)
Hey, wait a minute…
This is Grixis Energy, isn’t it?
With over a third of the deck removal, this is a midrange deck that is very aware of just how narrow of a field it’s up against.
It’s interesting to me just how many people are playing only a single The Scarab God. Obviously, everyone is aware the card is incredible and warping their strategies because of it, but isn’t the card just so strong that it’s probably right for some number of these people to play a second copy anyway?
Attaboy, Bolas! That’s what I like to see!
Last week’s super-saucy tech is now industry standard as at least a one-of in sideboards across the format.
Interestingly, Sergio’s list wasn’t the only non-energy U/B deck to put up a Top 16 or better finish. Ryo Moriya got there with a similar list, but eschewing Whirler Virtuoso, Glorybringer, Chandra, and Harnessed Lightning for a more consistent manabase and…
In some waits, Ryo’s list is sort of a product of Sultai Energy being bred with U/B Control.
Creatures (17)
- 2 Gonti, Lord of Luxury
- 1 Torrential Gearhulk
- 1 Noxious Gearhulk
- 3 Glint-Sleeve Siphoner
- 4 Gifted Aetherborn
- 2 The Scarab God
- 3 Champion of Wits
- 1 Hostage Taker
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (21)
Spells (20)
Sideboard
One super-cool feature of Ryo’s list is the ability to use Chart a Course or Champion of Wits to discard a Gearhulk, followed by Liliana, Death’s Majesty to reanimate it ahead of schedule.
While Fatal Push and Vraska’s Contempt are nothing unusual, Ryo’s inclusion of Walk the Plank might deserve a second look. Once you’re supporting Gifted Aetherborn’s mana cost, you get Walk the Plank on the cheap.
After all, the last thing you want to do is see an opposing Longtusk Cub on Turn 2 and not have an answer for it. Might there be other places we should be looking to try Walk the Plank again?
Yes!
The other The Scarab God!
Demon of Dark Schemes goes over the top of most strategies while also sweeping battlefields full of Vraska Pirates. I could actually imagine wanting to try Demon of Dark Schemes in more places. Basically, anyone with enough black mana and the ability to produce energy might be interested.
While, I personally enjoyed the various Grixis and U/B decks the most, the highest finishing non-Energy/non-Red deck was Alex Lloyd’s GP Atlanta-winning Esper Approach deck. While GP Warsaw was flooded with Energy decks as far as the eye can see, GP Atlanta had a little more diversity, culminating in a finals showdown between two exotic takes on existing archetypes.
Creatures (1)
Lands (22)
Spells (37)
Lloyd’s update to Approach splashes Fatal Push instead of Harnessed Lightning, giving it access to Vraska’s Contempt in the sideboard and a manabase with eight cycling duals.
As should be expected, Lloyd has a nice selection of alternate victory conditions in his sideboard, and Pull from Tomorrow sort of counts, too.
Lloyd’s finals opponent was none other than Hall of Famer Ben Stark, piloting an exotic build of Ramunap Red with a full twelve (!) Deserts.
Dunes of the Dead makes great fuel for the Ramunap Ruins and Scavenger Grounds, and playing so many Deserts lets him reliably maindeck Sand Stranglers.
Sand Strangler is excellent in the mirror and excellent against Energy. Given that that is three-quarters of the field, I think Stark’s take on Ramunap Red is very exciting.
Creatures (19)
- 4 Bomat Courier
- 2 Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
- 3 Glorybringer
- 1 Hazoret the Fervent
- 3 Soul-Scar Mage
- 3 Sand Strangler
- 3 Rampaging Ferocidon
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (12)
Spells (26)
Whoa, there’s actually a lot more going on here than meets the eye. There’s just a single Hazoret the Fervent, leaving room for…
Hell yeah!
Treasure Map is still an underrated card, and while it may look odd alongside Bomat Courier, this list is deceptively midrangey. Having all that extra material can really help make sure we’ve got enough raw material to power through the late-game.
It’s not the first time we’ve seen this, but Cut // Ribbons without black is a decent way to be able to kill opposing Glorybringers with a little more flexibility than just loading up on Chandra’s Defeats. After all, games in this format have a funny way of ending up with a bunch of 4/4s involved…
While Red was a quarter of the field (at least in the Top 16), there was a pretty decent spread of red decks. For instance, Alexander Privalov’s Mardu Vehicles decks is only nominally a “Mardu deck.” It’s really just a red aggro deck splashing black for Unlicensed Disintegration and Fatal Push and white for Toolcraft Exemplar and Veteran Motorist.
Creatures (24)
- 2 Pia Nalaar
- 2 Bomat Courier
- 4 Scrapheap Scrounger
- 4 Toolcraft Exemplar
- 4 Inventor's Apprentice
- 3 Veteran Motorist
- 2 Walking Ballista
- 3 Hazoret the Fervent
Lands (16)
Spells (20)
Sideboard
The loss of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar has left a giant hole in these decks, and that hole is more and more commonly being filled by Hazoret the Fervent or Chandra, Torch of Defiance. That said, there are still a couple of high-profile sideboard cards made possible by the double splash.
The Pro Tour was a breakout event for Dusk // Dawn, serving as a powerful sweeper against Longtusk Cub, Rogue Refiner, Bristling Hydra, and Glorybringer. Obviously, if the game goes long, it can also be a potent tool for grinding out Energy players with lots of Harnessed Lightnings and Abrades.
Toolcraft Exemplar, Heart of Kiran, and Pia Nalaar all duck under the sweeper, and Hazoret is indestructible. This leaves Scrapheap Scrounger (which could eventually come back anyway) and Veteran Motorist (which we definitely want to cut against Energy anyway).
So far, we’ve seen all sorts of decks that are wildly pre-sideboarded for the Energy matchup in a variety of unusual ways. What about an unusual Longtusk Cub / Rogue Refiner deck, using many of the same powerful cards, but coming with a slightly different gameplan, seeking to make some of the anti-Energy game plans worse?
Creatures (21)
- 4 Longtusk Cub
- 4 Bristling Hydra
- 4 Electrostatic Pummeler
- 4 Servant of the Conduit
- 4 Rogue Refiner
- 1 Rhonas the Indomitable
Lands (12)
Spells (27)
This list is very much a blend of Temur Energy and R/G Pummeler, but stripping the red cards of both halves. Instead of red removal, it puts flying pants on its Pummelers and sends them to the air.
Because nothing says “healthy format” like One with the Wind (or Spectral Flight) being good, haha. The flying aspect of these Auras is great for building a giant threat to race with, and we do get extra mileage out of the stat boosts thanks to Pummeler doubling and then doubling again.
Sideboard Swamp, you say?
Whatever could it be for?
No.
No.
No.
I hope all those people that said the Cartouches were never going to show up are taking a good hard look in the mirror. It’d be great if more of the Trials actually showed up, if you ask me.
As for Cartouche of Ambition, lifelink and stats are very important for racing, and the -1/-1 counter offsets some of the potential risk of investing a card in an Aura. Still, our primary plan is to protect our investment with Blossoming Defense or Dive Down.
While Blossoming Defense is fairly widely played, Dive Down means we’ve got more one-mana hexproof tricks than anyone.
The Situation
Yeah, this format is busted and hopefully Rogue Refiner or Attune with Aether gets banned, but you’ve gotta hand it to this past weekend’s players. They came up with a lot of different decks that made for a very different quarter of the field not playing Energy or Red from what we saw in previous weeks. Maybe with just a little juice taken out of the Energy deck, we could see a diverse metagame bloom with a lot of cool, previously fringe interactions being explored more fully.
What do you feel would gain the most from Attune with Aether and/or Rogue Refiner out of the format?