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Positive EV – Discussing Draft #4: Bant, White Aggro, and Five-Color in Conflux

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Wednesday, May 6th – In the fourth part of the excellent Discussing Draft series, Manuel Bucher and Olivier Ruel move onto their Top 20 card lists from Conflux, across a number of archetypes. Today, it’s the turn of Bant, White-based Aggro, and the all-popular Five-Color Control. Antoine Ruel also weighs in with his own White-based Aggro list…

Welcome to the fourth part of our article series. Parts 1-3 can be found here, here, and here. Today we are going to discuss Bant, Aggressive White Decks, and Five-Color Control in Conflux. Here we go!

BANT

Manuel:

1 — Aven Squire
2 — Celestial Purge
3 — Path to Exile
4 — Rupture Spire
5 — Rhox Bodyguard
6 — Aerie Mystics
7 — Wild Leotau
8 — Ancient Ziggurat
9 — Armillary Sphere
10 — Gleam of Resistance
11 — Aven Trailblazer
12 — Sylvan Bounty
13 — Valeron Outlander
14 — Esper Cormorants
15 — Lapse of Certainty

Oli:

1 – Aven Squire
2 – Path to Exile
3 – Wild Leotau
4 – Rupture Spire
5 – Aerie Mystics
6 – Ancient Ziggurat
7 – Celestial Purge
8 – Valeron Outlander
9 – Rhox Bodyguard
10 – Aven Trailblazer
11 – Gleam of Resistance
12 – Esper Cormorants
13 – Rhox Meditant
14 – Skyward Eye Prophets
15 – Sylvan Bounty

Manu: So you don’t count Celestial Purge as a top removal spell when you are Bant?
Oli: I think the card is worth a second spot against Grixis and Jund, but between twelfth place and nowhere against the others. Seventh seemed like a good compromise. Why do you like it that much?
Manu: I think it is very good against Esper as well, as you want to kill the early troublemakers like the Tidehollow Strix (or, when you open with Green creatures, Zombie Outlander). And if you are Bant, you have a very high chance of facing three decks that use Black and Red cards during the draft.
Oli: I agree that the card is rarely bad, I just don’t think it is great versus enough decks. I totally agree that it is good versus Esper for instance, but I’m not sure… Assuming you play three times against Esper, it would be in my Top 10… barely.
Manu: What kind of non-Black creature do you usually have to kill against Esper? The only one in my mind is Esper Battlemage.
Oli: Well, it is the only common or uncommon I can think of that you actually have to kill, except maybe Tidehollow Sculler. You can kill all the other ones with trades or pump spells. Oooh… Tower Gargoyle. My bad… and that one’s definitely black
Manu: What about Tidehollow Strix, Puppet Conjurer and Zombie Outlander?
Oli: Strix is no big deal, it only takes a trade, but if I don’t have many flyers, the other two are pretty annoying. But what is the average number of Outlanders plus Conjurers plus Tower Gargoyles plus Scullers an Esper deck has? One? One-point-five, maybe?
Manu: So Path to Exile wouldn’t make your second place either, if you’re playing Esper three times?
Oli: Once again, I think the card is good in the matchup, and I’ll be glad to draw it. No, Path is excellent against any Green decks, but it is only good in the late game versus Esper as you don’t want to help them fix their mana too quickly. But I get your point; maybe I overrated Path a bit and underrated Purge. The cards are just a thousand miles away from Oblivion Ring as far as pure power is concerned, which make me be a little harsh with Purge. But as you don’t have many removal spells in this archetype, you have to pick them a little higher than what they’re really worth.
Manu: And I especially like Purge in Bant because you cut off many non-Red/Black cards. That’s why I have it slightly over Path. But if I passed lots of targets which I can’t kill with Purge, I’ll pick the Path over it as well.
Oli: Not only is Bant an unstable deck, it also has problems dealing with guys, pushing you to pick the very few removal spells available over the good creatures. This is one of the many reasons why I don’t like that archetype at all.
Manu: Next up, Wild Leotau, I like the card a lot, but I think that Rhox Bodyguard is more necessary in a Bant deck, as it is a Tempo card and has the keyword Exalted, which is very rare in Conflux.
Oli: Rhox Bodyguard definitely is great in the archetype. I put Wild Leotau this high assuming I have a strong Green base (at least 40% Green cards, or several fixers), otherwise I pick the Bodyguard over it.
Manu: What about Aerie Mystics, which you have higher than the Bodyguard… Do you think he delivers more for the deck?
Oli: To be honest, as Bant has been bad for me every time I’ve drafted it, I don’t have much experience with that card. I only have the feeling it seems really strong.
Manu: And Armillary Sphere doesn’t deserve a high spot?
Oli: I love the card in control, but not so much in aggro. I mean, if I run an aggro deck, I don’t want to lose two turns of precious tempo. I like land cyclers more as the loss of time is less significant.
Manu: True, I should be more open-minded in the Armillary Sphere versus land cycler question, I just always assume the Sphere is better. Next time I definitely pick the land cycler over it in Bant.
Oli: Manu?
Manu: yes?
Oli: Next time, just don’t draft Bant!

WHITE AGGRO

Manuel:

1 — Aven Squire
2 — Path to Exile
3 — Celestial Purge
4 — Wild Leotau
5 — Valeron Outlander
6 — Lapse of Certainty
7 — Might of Alara
8 — Nacatl Savage
9 — Ancient Ziggurat
10 — Aven Trailblazer
11 — Gleam of Resistance
12 — Rhox Bodyguard
13 — Aerie Mystics
14 — Rhox Meditant
15 — Gluttonous Slime

Olivier:

1 – Aven Squire
2 – Wild Leotau
3 – Valeron Outlander
4 – Rhox Bodyguard
5 – Path to Exile
6 – Celestial Purge
7 – Aven Trailblazer
8 – Gleam of Resistance
9 – Might of Alara
10 – Lapse of Certainty
11 – Ancient Ziggurat
12 – Rupture Spire
13 – Aerie Mystics
14 – Gluttonous Slime
15 – Nacatl Savage

Manu: You don’t seem to appreciate removal in this deck.
Oli: Indeed, I want to kill my opponents on turn 6 to 8 when I play this archetype. As the opponent usually is forced to block, pump spells are about as good as removal spells here. I think Sigil Blessing, for instance, is a lot better than Purge or Path; even Might of Alara is almost as good as them.
Manu: I almost agree, only that the deck is usually vulnerable to pingers (and Puppet Conjurer).
Oli: Basically, when I play WG, my plan is for them not to have/draw Pyroclasm effects, and not to run too many one-toughness guys (except for both Squire) so I don’t simply die to pingers. Then, I can focus essentially on having the fastest deck possible. When I manage to do that, I usually go at least 2-1. But of course, when I lose, it’s mostly to mass removal. That’s why I put Nacatl Savage pretty low in my rating. In my opinion, the card is worth first or second place versus Esper, and it’s not in the Top 15 versus everything else.
Manu: I have it a lot higher, because in my opinion a lot of two-drops are crucial for the deck. Obviously if I already have plenty, I pick other cards higher. That’s also why I have Lapse of Certainty so high; if I can open with one-drop into two-drop, this is the best card ever.
Oli: I usually have enough two-mana guys, and don’t want my deck to be vulnerable to pingers. Otherwise, I pick it much higher of course.
Oli: Indeed… Not only is Lapse really good in this archetype, it is actually a good reason to run it, as you always get one or two from picks 8 to 14. You are guaranteed one or two “free” playables, which is extremely precious when you decide to go for two colors.
Manu: So you only have it as low as a 10th place because you always get it late?
Oli: Yes. The card is worth a higher spot, but usually I have to choose between Trailblazer and Lapse on pick 3. Do I really want to pick the counter when I can have both if I pick the flyer?
Manu: Of course not.
Oli: One last thing… I mentioned last week that I often splash Red in this archetype, though I don’t have a single Red card in my Top 15. It’s simply because nothing is worth a splash. I did, however, sometimes splash Viashino Slaughtermaster. The guy is everything a splash shouldn’t be: a cheap creature, fragile, and not very good on its own. However, if you’re short in playables and/or have several fixers, it is extremely synergic with every single card in your deck.
Manu: I hadn’t considered that thus far, but that’s very interesting. It makes Rupture Spire a lot better.
Oli: Yes, that’s why I have it. You don’t want to slow your deck, but if you have to splash it’s better than a basic land.

Again, we asked Antoine Ruel for the Top 15 list for his UW Aggro deck. Here it is.

1 – Path to Exile
2 – Aven Squire
3 – Vedalken Outlander
4 – Faeire Mechanist
5 – Esper Cormorants
6 – Esperzoa
7 – Lapse of Certainty
8 – Aven Trailblaizer
9 – Gleam of Resistance
10 – Parasite Strix
11 – Traumatic Visions
12 – Unsummon
13 – Court Homunculus
14 – Celestial Purge
15 – Darklit Gargoyle

FIVE COLOR CONTROL

Manuel:

1 — Armillary Sphere
2 — Drag Down
3 — Path to Exile
4 — Grixis Slavedriver
5 — Rupture Spire
6 — Wretched Banquet
7 — Celestial Purge
8 — Traumatic Visions
9 — Volcanic Fallout
10 — Fiery Fall
11 — Absorb Vis
12 — Fusion Elemental
13 — Voices from the Void
14 — Dark Temper
15 — Paragon of the Amesha
16 — Matca Rioters
17 — Gleam of Resistance
18 — Worldly Counsel
19 — Fleshformer
20 — Skyward Eye Prophets

Olivier:

1 – Armillary Sphere
2 – Drag Down
3 – Rupture Spire
4 – Volcanic Fallout
5 – Fusion Elemental
6 – Voices from the Void
7 – Path to Exile
8 – Grixis Slavedriver
9 – Traumatic Visions
10 – Fiery Fall
11 – Matca Rioters
12 – Paragon of the Amesha
13 – Wretched Banquet
14 – Absorb Vis
15 – Celestial Purge
16 – Dark Temper
17 – Aven Trailblazer
18 – Shard Convergence
19 – Fleshformer
20 – Wordly Counsel

Manu: I have Volcanic Fallout a bit lower, as it really depends how the deck appears. If I am already deep in Red, I pick it a lot higher.
Oli: Totally agreed. Usually, a Five-Color Control deck is either Grixis-based or Esper-based. In the first instance, I think the card is worth between 2nd and 4th place, while in an Esper-based deck it is around 10th place. But this comment doesn’t only apply to Fallout, as most of the picks depend on your deck’s strongest colors and number of fixers. For instance, I place Fusion Elemental and Voices from the Void very high, but if I am a little short of fixers, I will place them around 10th to 12th place
Manu: I completely agree there. I could easily see myself picking Fusion Elemental over Grixis Slavedriver. But most of the time I don’t have already the perfect mana, which makes the Slavedriver really good for me. It’s a high quality threat which is really easy to cast.
Oli: I usually do that, or suppose I will be able to do that, even if I have to take landcyclers a little too highly, but I can actually see another reason to pick the 4/4 over the 8/8. Very often, people can’t use the Elemental, so you have a chance to see it wheel if it’s in the pack you opened or in the first booster you received, and if it’s in a good pack. I’ve received it from pick 6 to 10 countless times.
Manu: True.
Oli: And this is also the reason why Skyward Eye Prophets and Worldly Counsel are low in my rating. They are very good, but they always wheel.
Manu: One interesting difference: Wretched Banquet. For me this is one of the best removal spells in the archetype.
Oli: The more removal you have, the better it gets. But even though it’s a paradox, the more removal spells I have, the less I want to pick it high, as when I have great spells I usually am short in fixers. And once again, it’s a card that often wheels.
Manu: Sure, it gets better with every removal spell you already have, but it is the card I always want to see in my opening hand. And I don’t mind at all drawing it later on.
Oli: That’s true, as far as tempo is concerned; a one-mana spell removal is excellent.
Manu: And you can often squeeze it in on the same turn as an Obelisk.
Oli: Which compensates the “Time Walk” effect of the mana fixer, another good point indeed. I should pick it a little higher, but I won’t pick it much higher as, once again, it often comes back when you pass it in the early picks. I also wanted to say, even though it is not in our Top 20s, that I appreciate Yoke of the Damned a lot. The card wheels pretty late, it’s great with Dark Temper, and pretty good with removal spells in general.
Manu: Yoke of the Damned might be a bit slow sometimes though. But it is far from unplayable.

That’s it for this week! Thanks for reading.

Oli & Manu