Pick A Peck Of Paper Pauper

Many Magic players are hungry for a new Eternal format. With Modern in a weird spot until the Eldrazi are either banned or solved and Reserved List prices going crazy, many of us are frustrated with our current options. All that energy is shooting off in a half-dozen interesting directions right now: “no-ban Modern” tournaments, a renewed interest in competitive Commander, and the “no-Reserved List Legacy” communities building up on Facebook and Reddit.

The best idea currently gaining traction involves a format that already exists. It’s one of the few Online-exclusive formats that has found a real audience among both casual and competitive players. It’s a true Eternal format, it has a healthy metagame, and not one of its staples is prohibitively expensive.

Pauper, your time has come. Sounds like a good investment opportunity to me!

What is Pauper?

The concept of the format is simple: if a card has ever been printed at common, you can play it in Pauper. That means a card like Mulldrifter (common in Lorwyn, uncommon in Modern Masters) is legal to play. And yes, you can run either version in your deck.

There is a Pauper banned list, but it’s small. It contains a few engine cards (Cloud of Faeries, Cloudpost, Frantic Search); a few storm cards (Empty the Warrens, Grapeshot, Temporal Fissure); a few dominant build-arounds (Cranial Plating, Invigorate); and, of course, Treasure Cruise. But that’s it! Most of the broken cards in Magic’s history have been uncommons or rares.

Pauper has two major hurdles to clear before I can imagine it taking the paper Magic world by storm. The first is that the banned list is currently based exclusively on Magic Online. Since many of Magic’s oldest sets weren’t released in their proper form online and were instead added via sets like Masters Edition, the Pauper card pool in paper Magic is far larger.

Would Sinkhole have to be banned in paper Pauper? What about High Tide and Hymn to Tourach? It’s unclear how powerful those cards would be, since they’re currently untested, and Sinkhole might also be too expensive for a format designed around affordable deckbuilding. These problems are large and immediate, but they should be solvable with enough testing and strong community leadership.

The second problem is going to be a little harder to solve. Magic Online makes sorting by rarity quite easy—the software will display all you Pauper-legal cards at the click of a button—but the lack of rarity demarcation on older cards makes it much harder to build Pauper decks with your paper collection. Was Urza’s Mine a common or an uncommon in Antiquities? What about Quirion Ranger in Visions? And what happens the first time you play a copy of Trinket Mage from Scars of Mirrodin in front of an inexperienced opponent (it was a common in Fifth Dawn)?

There’s a certain amount of innate knowledge you just have to have in order to play Pauper in paper form, which is a problem that doesn’t happen online. This problem isn’t insurmountable—the more people play Pauper, the less research they’ll have to do—but the steep learning curve is a legitimate reason why paper Pauper hasn’t already taken off.

The Pauper Metagame

Here’s some good news if you want to figure out which Pauper cards to invest in: the metagame is already established, which saves us a whole lot of guesswork. The paper Pauper meta won’t be exactly the same as it is online, of course—not only are there more potential cards in paper Modern, but a few key cards in the online meta (Chainer’s Edict, for example) haven’t been released at common in any paper set, making them ineligible to appear in the paper meta. That said, the online metagame is still the best place to start our journey.

Normally, when I look at decks for investment opportunities, I like to examine the cheapest cards first. Pauper is a different beast, though. Since all these cards have been released at common, each one needs a lot of help to see real financial growth. So how can we septate the winners from the stinkers?

Age is good. If a card was only printed back in Arabian Nights, it’s worth a second look. Single-printing cards of all stripes have potential, and cards that are already expensive due to Legacy, Modern, or Commander play may already poised to make a leap due to those outside factors.

The best way to think about Pauper finance is to examine each deck’s “choke point” cards. No one playing Pauper Affinity is going to have trouble scraping together four copies of recently reprinted Frogmite. But Chromatic Star? Those are already about four bucks each thanks to G/R Tron. If you want to buy into Pauper, start at the choke points and worry about all the other stuff later.

Let’s get to the decks, shall we? These are the twelve lists that each have at least a 4% share of the online metagame, according to mttgoldfish.com. All told, these twelve decks make up about 85% of the current meta. If we’re going to find any underpriced Pauper gems, they’re going to be here.

Affinity (Pauper)

Maxtick

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (18)

Lands (17)

Spells (25)

Sideboard

Affinity is the most popular deck in Pauper, which, I suppose, makes it not too dissimilar from Modern. Atog has to stand in as the Ravager analog here, though the legality of the artifact lands goes a long way toward making this a more effective plan than you might imagine.

Choke Point Cards:

· Chromatic Star – $4.09

· Springleaf Drum – $1.29

· Ancient Den – $2.15

· Tree of Tales – $0.49

If you want to buy this deck, start with these four cards. Chromatic Star is hot thanks to G/R Tron, and Modern Affinity has caused Springleaf Drum to bounce back up to $1.29 despite just being printed in Born of the Gods. While most of the artifact lands have seen a couple of reprints in Commander and duel decks, Ancient Den and Tree of Tales haven’t been reprinted since Mirrodin. This makes them the most likely members of the cycle to see a major jump if Pauper takes off.

Temur Tron (Pauper)

Luspa

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (13)

Lands (18)

Spells (29)

Sideboard

Pauper is cheaper than Standard and Modern, certainly, but it’s not free to play—this deck will set you back about a hundred bucks, which is on the high end for the format. Most decks will cost you closer to $40 or $50—not bad for an Eternal format, right?

Again, the pre-Eldrazi Modern metagame is a good starting point when thinking about this deck. Temur Tron borrows a lot from G/R Tron in Modern, though its finishers are slightly less inspiring. The philosophy is the same, though: get a set of Tron lands onto the battlefield, generate absurd amounts of mana, and close out the game.

Choke Point Cards:

· Ancient Stirrings – $4.09

· Expedition Map – $2.35

· Chromatic Star – $4.09

· Firebolt – $0.49

Another Modern-lite deck, another set of Modern staple commons. The first three cards on this list all see play in R/G Tron, which is why they’re already so expensive. Firebolt is a bit of a dark horse here; it’s been reprinted a few times, but only in very limited sets like Duel Decks: Jace vs. Chandra. If Pauper takes off, this might be one of the cards whose price tag will benefit the most.

Mono-Blue Delver

Billster47

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (20)

Lands (17)

17 Island

Spells (25)

Sideboard

What should you do when all the mana fixing in your format is mediocre at best? One option is to play a mono-colored deck. I can’t remember the last time outside of a draft that I just sleeved up a bunch of basics and said good enough. That’s what Mono-Blue Delver does, though, and there’s a good reason for it: Spire Golem has affinity for Islands, making it a strong late-game threat that allows you to keep all your reactive mana up.

Choke Point Cards:

· Delver of Secrets – $1.85

· Ponder – $1.15

· Preordain – $1.29

· Snap – $2.99

· Gush – $1.49

· Spire Golem – $0.15

Quite a few of these cards have potential if paper Pauper becomes a thing. Delver of Secrets is a solid Modern deck away from being a $3-$4 common regardless, and it’s going to be very hard to reprint. Ponder and Preordain are incredibly powerful spells, but they’re held back by the Modern banned list; if Pauper takes off, these cards might as well. Ditto Gush, which is so good that it’s even banned in Legacy.

Snap might be the most interesting card on here, though. As a spell from Urza’s Legacy with the “free” mechanic, it’s unlikely to ever see print again. It isn’t played very much outside of this deck, though, and I suspect the recent jump to $3 is a result of shrewd Pauper speculation. These can still be found in bulk collections, so get digging if you want to play Mono-Blue Delver.

Last, Spike Golem is just $0.15 right now and has only been printed in Darksteel and Duel Decks: Jace vs. Chandra. If Snap is worth $3 based on this deck, Spire Golem should hit a buck, right?

Mono-Black Control (Pauper)

pproteus

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (15)

Lands (21)

17 Swamp
4 Barren Moor

Spells (24)

Sideboard

Remember: Chainer’s Edict isn’t legal in paper Pauper. Sinkhole and Hymn to Tourach both seem sweet in this shell, though, so I doubt mono-black Pauper mages will complain too much about the loss of one of their premium removal spells.

Choke Point Cards:

· Chittering Rats – $0.49

· Unearth – $1.19

· Wrench Mind – $1.39

· Oubliette – $14.99

After spending quite a while in the $10-$13 range, Oubliette was bought out recently and is tough to find under $30 right now. This is why you need to know about Pauper finance, even if you aren’t planning to play. There are at least a couple of people out there who are already making these kinds of buys, and you need to know why.

After Oubliette, the most interesting cards in this deck are single-printing staples from Urza’s Legacy and Mirrodin block. If you want to build Mono-Black Control in Pauper at any point, I’d snag a playset of each right away. Just don’t forget that you might have to shell out $40 each for Sinkholes as well.

U/B Delver (Pauper)

123Pwned

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (10)

Lands (18)

Spells (32)

Sideboard

This is a much more removal-heavy version of the Mono-Blue Delver deck. There’s less of an emphasis on tempo play, fewer counterspells, and Gurmag Angler takes the place of Spire Golem. This is the sort of casual control deck I used to love playing back in my old kitchen table Magic days, and I’m glad a list like this still has a place in today’s game.

Choke Point Cards:

· Delver of Secrets – $1.85

· Ponder – $1.15

· Thought Scour – $0.99

· Deprive – $0.79

· Mental Note – $0.25

None of these cards are terribly expensive right now, making this a great deck to pick up. That isn’t to say that none of the cards in this deck are any good, of course. Thought Scour sees a bunch of play in Grixis Control, and Deprive shows up in the Modern Delver decks now and again. Since both cards are still under a buck, they’re worth taking a gamble on.

Digging deeper, Mental Note is another intriguing possibility if Pauper takes off. It’s only really used in this deck, but it’s just a quarter and it was only printed once, back in Judgment.

Goblins (Pauper)

VenomousLegion

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (35)

Lands (20)

20 Mountain

Spells (7)

Sideboard

This Goblin deck is pure aggression. Small Goblins, efficient burn spells, and a couple of Fireblasts combine to finish off the game.

Choke Point Cards:

· Fireblast – $1.49

· Goblin Cohort – $0.15

· Goblin Sledder – $0.15

· Mogg Conscripts – $0.15

Fireblast has been reprinted a few times (most significantly in Premium Decks: Fire and Lightning) but the supply is finally starting to dwindle. The other three cards I’ve highlighted are single-printing Goblins that have some growth potential if Pauper events start to pop up. Mogg Conscripts is the most interesting of the three. It was only printed once, way back in Tempest, so the available supply of these is especially low. I’d get a set or two ASAP.

Kuldotha Jeskai (Pauper)

The Bimdezzy

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (14)

Lands (22)

Spells (24)

Sideboard

Kuldotha Jeskai is a three-color tempo deck. Between Ichor Wellspring and the artifact lands, you’re almost always going to have a target for your Kuldotha Rebirth. After that, it’s just a matter of using your removal judiciously and attacking them with your undercosted fliers.

Choke Point Cards:

· Galvanic Blast – $0.99

· Ancient Den – $2.29

There’s not a lot of hidden value here. Galvanic Blast is a buck because it’s used in Modern Affinity, so it might see another small jump in price regardless of Pauper. We talked a little about Ancient Den before, and this is another reason why it should be a priority pick-up for you if you want to get into the format.

Burn (Pauper)

Ultimatrunks

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (4)

4 Keldon Marauders

Lands (18)

16 Mountain
2 Forgotten Cave

Spells (38)

Sideboard

I’m not sure how much Burn we’d actually see in a paper Pauper metagame. Out of every deck we’ve looked at so far, it’s the cheapest to build online and the most expensive to build in paper. That said, if you’ve already got a Legacy burn deck kicking around, you can modify it for use in a Pauper tournament without too much trouble.

Choke Point Cards:

· Chain Lightning – $17.99

· Lava Spike – $4.29

· Rift Bolt – $3.99

· Fireblast – $1.19

· Needle Drop – $0.35

Most of these cards are only expensive because of burn decks in Legacy and Modern. I can’t imagine Pauper making much of an impact on a premium card like Chain Lightning one way or the other.

Needle Drop is kind of interesting, though. It was only printed once, in Lorwyn, and it’s a four-of in this deck. I like it at $0.35.

U/R Delver Fiend (Pauper)

kircheisen

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (12)

Lands (18)

Spells (30)

Sideboard

This is the third Delver variant we’ve seen, and it can kill out of nowhere with a massive Kiln Fiend or Nivix Cyclops. If you’re looking at the world through a cynical lens, Pauper feels like yet another format dominated by same-y Delver tempo decks. That’s not really true, though. Each of these decks attacks the format in an entirely different way, and lumping them together under the Delver umbrella has more to do with how we categorize decks than anything else.

Choke Point Cards:

· Delver of Secrets – $1.85

· Kiln Fiend – $1.19

· Gitaxian Probe – $4.99

· Ponder – $1.15

· Preordain – $1.29

· Gush – $1.49

Gitaxian Probe isn’t optional in this deck. It’s a crucial part of your win condition, so you’re gonna have to pay up for them. $5 for such a recent common is steep, but it sees so much play in Modern that you might as well pick up a set if you think you’ll need them for one reason or another. Just be aware that it’s likely to show up in a Modern Masters or Eternal Masters set sooner or later, and Pauper’s popularity won’t make an impact on its price regardless.

Mono-Green Stompy (Pauper)

Penguin11

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (27)

Lands (16)

16 Forest

Spells (17)

Sideboard

Can you believe that Rancor was actually common!? It’s true! The powerful aura was printed at common in both Archenemy and Urza’s Legacy. I doubt this deck would work without Rancor; there are lots of aggressive and resilient creatures at the bottom of the curve, but they need extra oomph to break through most of the time.

Choke Point Cards:

· Nettle Sentinel – $1.89

· Rancor – $4.99

Again, we’re left staring at two cards that see the bulk of their play in more popular formats. Nettle Sentinel is a mainstay in Elves, and Rancor shows up in Legacy and Modern Infect. Both seem like likely inclusions in Eternal Masters, so I’d be at least a little wary of buying in now.

G/W Hexproof (Pauper)

barabara

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (15)

Lands (18)

Spells (27)

Sideboard

There’s no Daybreak Coronet in Pauper, of course, but G/W Hexproof is still a powerful and resilient strategy in this format. Without Chainer’s Edict around as a catch-all safety valve, I’d imagine its share of the metagame will increase, too. This is one of the Pauper decks I’m most interested in building for myself.

Choke Point Cards:

· Slippery Bogle – $2.89

· Rancor – $4.99

· Utopia Sprawl – $2.29

· Ancestral Mask – $0.69

Slippery Bogle is expensive because of Modern Hexproof, but that doesn’t make it a bad buy. I’m not sure it’ll be reprinted anytime soon; between the hybrid mana cost, the weird creature type, and the oppressiveness of hexproof, it will require a very specific context to come back.

Utopia Sprawl is another solid buy. It’s the sort of beloved causal card that could take off if it actually found a home in tournament Magic. Ancestral Mask is the long-shot buy. It was only printed once, way back in Mercadian Masques, and it’s another one of those weird auras that kitchen table players love.

U/B Teachings (Pauper)

hadesblade

Test deck on 03-07-2016

Casual

Creatures (4)

4 Sea Gate Oracle

Lands (24)

Spells (34)

Sideboard

Let’s end our journey through Pauper with a control deck from the old school. There are only four creatures in the build, which most often kills via a single Curse of the Bloody Tome. Other versions are a little more creature-heavy, and this deck is sometimes lumped in with the U/B variants of Delver.

Choke Point Cards:

· Evincar’s Justice – $0.15

· Mystical Teachings – $0.49

· Deprive – $0.79

· Condescend – $1.25

None of these cards are very hard to get right now—a refreshing change for a blue control deck, no? If you’re looking for a sleeper, though, Evincar’s Justice is my pick. Just like Mogg Conscripts, the last time it was printed was back in Tempest. It doesn’t take much for cards from this era to increase in price.

So. Is investing in paper Pauper worthwhile? I wouldn’t go out and buy 500 copies of anything, but you can pick up a playset of almost every key card in the format for about the price of a booster box. If you think you can drum up enough local interest for a tournament or two, I can’t think of a more fun return on investment in all of Magic.

It’s also an excuse to go deep-diving through the bulk hiding in the back of your closet. How many of these format staples do you have mixed in with your draft chaff? Quite a few, I’d bet!

This Week’s Trends

The Shadows over Innistrad spoilers are rolling out, and it’s looking like Zombie tribal decks will have a real shot at Constructed playability. Risen Executioner is sold out at $3, and it’s a very safe buy anywhere near that price point. I wouldn’t go too crazy, but it could end up as a $7-$8 card in a solid Standard deck. It’s also another reason to get your playset of Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet ASAP.

Remember when I told you how undervalued Chandra, Flamecaller was last week? No longer; she’s currently sold out at $20, a price tag I expect to stick, considering how much play she’s currently seeing in Standard. Nissa, Voice of Zendikar also continues to rise. She’s still a pretty good buy at $15.99, and I expect her to join Chandra at the $20+ mark sooner or later.

Why is Nissa so hot right now? Part of it has to do with the G/W Hardened Scales deck that showed up to play on the circuit last week. I may have been too hasty when I said that the Hangarback Walker era was over. Take a look at this list from the StarCityGames.com Standard Classic last weekend:

G/W Hardened Scales

Brian Ward

3rd Place at Star City Games Classic on 02-28-2016

Standard

Creatures (23)

Planeswalkers (3)

3 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar

Lands (25)

Spells (9)

Sideboard

I’m not sure how deep I’d go on any of this stuff, since Standard rotation is just over a month away, but if you have any of these cards lying around, you’ve got a couple of weeks to trade them away at a nice little profit.

Casual watch: Origins mythic Alhammarret’s Archive is on the move, slowly rising from $2.50 to about $4.50. It might not seem like much, but it’s a small-set mythic that could easily crack $10 a year from now. I’d grab a set ASAP. Other Origins cards have also started to rebound after a long tough; even Goblin Piledriver is on the move due to casual interest and long-term speculation.