Modern Masters II

Today’s article is the financial analysis of a set that hasn’t actually been announced yet.

It’s possible, I suppose, that Modern Masters II won’t happen. Perhaps ‘Grand Prix TBD’ on May 28-31 of next year,
which I’ve been told “will showcase an exciting new Magic set” is actually a red herring for some crazy new multiplayer format. Perhaps the Legacy Masters
rumors have some veracity to them, despite the fact that Mark Rosewater recently doubled-down on keeping the reserved list, and no one would be satisfied with a
halfway-neutered Legacy Masters set without dual lands. Perhaps the sun will explode between now and April.

I doubt it though. If I had to throw money down on there not being a second Modern Masters set released this spring, you’d have to give me odds better than
50 to 1 before I put down any money. Modern Masters II is coming, and I think it’s time we take a serious look at what it might contain.

As a refresher, let’s take a look at what the original Modern Masters set contained:

Of the fifteen mythic rares, eight of them were designed primarily for competitive play: Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf, Vendilion Clique, Elspeth, Knight-Errant, Sword of Fire and Ice, Vedalken Shackles, and Progenitus.
Two of them, Sarkhan Vol and Sword of Light and Shadow, saw very little play in Modern and were added as an appeal to casual players. You could argue
that Shackles and Progenitus belong in this category as well since neither saw a lot of Modern play at the time either.
Five of them, the Kamigawa dragon cycle, saw no Modern play and were added mostly as Limited bombs.
Of the 53 rares, only about half were heavily played in Modern. The set contained a not-insignificant number of Commander-only staples (Jhoira of the
Ghitu, Grand Arbiter Augustin IV, Doubling Season) and a few Limited bombs like Molten Disaster and Skeletal Vampire.
There was no rare land cycle.
The commons and uncommons somehow managed to include 90% of all the expensive non-rare cards in Modern while still mostly supporting a series of awesome
Draft themes. I don’t know how WotC did it, but they threaded the needle perfectly, managing to reprint all of the needed commons and uncommons while still
delivering an all-time great Limited set.
Modern Masters was billed as a limited release, and finding packs for MSRP was very difficult. All of the stores near me either ran a box lottery or
jacked up the price. Currently, boxes of Modern Masters sell for $350 and up, which is $14-$15 per pack.
Modern Masters was initially conceived and pitched by WotC as a way of reprinting cards from Mirrodin through Shards of Alara only. Zendikar is
considered the beginning of the current MTG growth spurt, and Aaron Forsythe told his readers that he wanted to get staples from before that boom into
circulation in order to help juice the growth of the format.

This last point is where I’d like to begin the discussion of Modern Masters II. Even if some of the cards are the same – and they very likely will be – WotC will want to include some new cards as a way to drive hype and increase sales. Since they can’t go any further back in time without changing the parameters of what Modern is, my guess is that they’ll look forward at least a couple of years.

Will we see cards from Zendikar, Worldwake, and Rise of the Eldrazi in MMII? Almost certainly. In fact, I expect these cards to make up the bulk of new
Modern Masters additions.

Will we see cards from Scars of Mirrodin, Mirrodin Besieged, and New Phyrexia? My guess is yes. Scars block has several expensive Modern staples in it, and
this feels old enough to support at least a couple of reprints without causing a feeling of deja vu.

Will we see cards from Innistrad, Dark Ascension, and Avacyn Restored? This is the real question, especially when it comes to Liliana of the Veil,
Snapcaster Mage, and Delver of Secrets, three major Modern staples. Here’s why I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll see Innistrad cards in MMII:

Liliana of the Veil would be the clear flagship reprint from Innistrad block, and she’s going to be the promo for the Regional Pro Tour Qualifiers this
year. I highly doubt WotC will undermine those with a second Liliana reprint at the same time.
There aren’t quite enough double-faced cards to make it a subtheme in a reprint set. As we learned when Innistrad was printed, you can’t just jam them
into packs; you have to print them on a special sheet and place them in a separate slot in the pack for drafting. MMII would have to make double-faced
cards a Limited theme if they wanted to reprint Delver, which means they’d have to stack the set with at least fifteen or twenty different double-faced
cards. Problem is, there are only 33 double-faced cards in the history of Magic. Unless WotC wanted this aspect of MMII to play out exactly like Innistrad,
they’ll hold off until after at least one more set with double-faced cards is released.
Aside from the cards I’ve mentioned above, which Innistrad cards would you be excited to open in MMII? Geist of Saint Traft was also recently reprinted, and beyond that you’re looking at cards like Craterhoof Behemoth and Avacyn, Angel of Hope. Those cards can wait for
MMIII, which will also assuredly happen in two more years.

For the purposes of this exercise then, I’ll only be looking at adding cards from Zendikar and Scars of Mirrodin blocks as possible MMII additions. This
fits nicely with the two-year window between the release of MM and the anticipated release of MMII. I wouldn’t be surprised if WotC informally follows
these guidelines going forward, releasing a MM set every two years that includes two additional years’ worth of highlighted reprints.

So we’ve got a time frame. Which cards might we actually see in Modern Masters II? Let’s start at the top by analyzing the heavy hitters WotC might decide
to include as flagship mythics. Here are all of the cards currently legal in Modern that are at least $40 retail, in descending order:

Now let’s remove the cards from MMI, lands that are part of a cycle, and the Innistrad stuff. The leaves us with the following potential new MMII mythics:

I actually think Noble Hierarch and Fulminator Mage have a solid chance of being reprinted at rare instead of mythic in MMII. Both were printed at rare the
first time around (though Fulminator was in a pre-mythic set), and neither have a strong mythic feel to them. I could be wrong on this point, but WotC
didn’t shy away from printing cards like Cryptic Command and Arcbound Ravager at rare in the first Modern Masters set. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few
powerhouses slip in at rare this time around as well.

I think the Eldrazi are the most likely marquee inclusions. Emrakul is an important Constructed card, Ulamog and Kozilek are iconic Commander mythics, and
WotC has been hinting for months that we’ll see the Eldrazi again at some point over the next few sets. I wouldn’t be shocked if the RoE Eldrazi are
re-released this spring in Modern Masters in conjunction with a new batch of annihilators in Standard.

If you want to make a grouping of five colorless cards, the easiest two additions are Mox Opal and Karn Liberated. Both are strong Modern stapes with some
casual appeal as well.

We’ll see at least one mythic rare of each color too, of course. Linvala, Keeper of Silence is the easy choice for white, replacing Elspeth, Knight Errant.
I would be absolutely shocked if this doesn’t happen. If you want to think outside the box a little, Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite and Iona, Shield of Emeria
are potential inclusions as well.

In blue, I doubt they’ll bump Cryptic Command up to mythic because it was a rare in the first Modern Masters set. Snapcaster Mage is out because it’s from
Innistrad, and I don’t think they’ll print anything that recent. That leaves Vendilion Clique as the most likely choice for the blue mythic slot, though I
wouldn’t be surprised if they go with something a little more casual this time around. Bribery is the obvious choice if WotC goes that route.

Black is tough because there are several great choices. If they don’t run back Dark Confidant, I think we’ll see either Bitterblossom or Damnation get this
slot. Bitterblossom seems most likely since it plays well with the Modern Event Deck. Damnation also has the better shot at being printed at regular rarity
since its color-shifted brethren are all non-mythic. It’s possible that WotC is still busy pretending that Damnation isn’t a thing though -it was an easy
inclusion in this year’s From the Vault set, but it was snubbed there.

Red is tough to predict because there just isn’t much to choose from. Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker could show up again, though he’s not as exciting as he was
two years ago. The next three most expensive red cards in Modern are Blood Moon, Splinter Twin, and Goblin Guide, all of which were printed at rare in
recent sets. I don’t even know where you go after that. Dragonmaster Outcast? Magus of the Moon? Through the Breach? Braid of Fire?

I would be surprised if Tarmogoyf isn’t the marquee green card again. It’s still above $200, so WotC can print a bunch more of these before the market
comes down to the point where it isn’t the chase mythic in any set where it is printed.

Predicting the last five mythics is tough. Will WotC go with another casual cycle, or will the Eldrazi end up standing in for the Kamigawa dragons this
time around? I wouldn’t be shocked if Sliver Legion and Crucible of Worlds end up in the mix somehow, and it’s possible that they’ll run back Sword of Fire
and Ice and Sword of Light and Shadow – the new art was instantly iconic, so it’s possible they’ll want to work that back into their marketing for MMII.

I also doubt that Modern Masters II will be the first set in a long time without planeswalkers. Karn Liberated is the obvious call, but I think we’ll see
at least one more. Assuming they want another gold card, the choices are basically down to Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas or Ajani Vengeant. Otherwise, they’ll
have to do two mythic rares per color, in which case we might see Elspeth, Knight Errant again or one of the Jaces.

Chips down, here’s my prediction for the mythics of Modern Masters II:

Do you need to sell any of these cards before they’re (possibly) reprinted? Nope. Don’t forget that many of the mythic rares in the first Modern Masters
set actually went up in price as renewed interest in the format drove demand. While I don’t expect that to happen this time around – Modern is an
established format, so there won’t be as many potential converts – I doubt that the price for any MMII mythic will drop enough to warrant a panic-sell.
It’s not the mythics you need to worry about, it’s the rares.

The rares are much harder to predict, unfortunately. Modern Masters I gave us seven per color in addition to nine gold cards, five artifacts, and four
lands. There are dozens of potential inclusions in each color, so I’d like to focus on the cards that would make the biggest financial ripples were they to
be reprinted:

White

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some kind of Soul Sisters-esque Limited subtheme for white, which would allow both Ranger of Eos and Serra Ascendant to
be reprinted for both Constructed and Limited play. Leyline of Sanctity is also about as close to an auto-include as you can get for this section
considering how important it is in Modern right now. We might even see a Leyline cycle in MMII with Singularity and Void making an appearance as well.

Blue

I expect Cryptic Command to show up again, especially after it spiked despite being included in the last Modern Masters set. Hurkyl’s Recall is another
card I think we’ll get, and it might even make sense in Limited if a card like Mox Opal shows up at mythic rare. There may be a metalcraft subtheme going
on in Draft, much like how Affinity was included in MMI.

Black

Black will need to have one of Damnation or Bitterblossom show up at rare for it to have a shot at something exciting below mythic. Beyond that, we’re
looking at Death Baron, Goryo’s Vengeance, or Grave Pact for value, all of which can help enable a cool Limited strategy or two depending on which
direction WotC goes in. I doubt we’ll see all three – Goryo’s Vengeance isn’t making the cut without other arcane spells, for example, and we won’t see
Death Baron with no other zombies.

Red

Goblin Guide and Splinter Twin are two obvious inclusions, and I assume we’ll get both of them here. I don’t think we’ll get both Blood Moon and Magus of
the Moon though, but one of them should show up. Magus is the more likely addition since Blood Moon was in MMI.

Green

Green’s power level in Commander means that there are a ton of potentially lucrative reprints here. Scapeshift and Birthing Pod feel like the best bets in
terms of cards that will actually impact Modern, but I have a strong feeling that we’ll see Seedborn Muse and Oracle of Mul Daya as well.

Gold

Fulminator Mage is an obvious chase card in gold, and Wilt-Leaf Liege was seeing a lot of play a few months ago when Modern Masters II was (probably) being
finalized. I don’t think Glimpse the Unthinkable is coming back unless there’s a mill subtheme for Draft though, and Glittering Wish is almost assuredly
not in the set because Jeskai Ascendancy wasn’t a thing when this list was most likely created.

Artifact

Any number of these cards could be reprinted at mythic, so it’s unclear which powerhouse artifacts will show up at rare. Spellskite and Oblivion Stone have
been Modern staples the longest, so they’re the most likely to be included. Gauntlet of Power and Extraplanar Lens play really well with the Commander 2014
decks that were just released, so they’re my pick as casual inclusions.

Land

Grove of the Burnwillows
Horizon Canopy
The Zendikar Fetchlands
Filterlands
The Worldwake Manlands

I don’t think they’ll burn off the excitement of the Zendikar fetchlands in a set that is already going to sell out instantly. I have a feeling we might
see filterlands in Standard again soon too. The Worldwake manlands are a much more intriguing call though. It’s about time for those to come back, either
in Modern Masters II or in the final core set next summer. My prediction is that we’ll see the cycle of five show up here, though it’s possible they’ll
just reprint the blue ones in addition to Grove and Canopy.

At any rate, these are the cards that are potentially worth selling in advance of Modern Masters II. Mana Reflection, for example, is a $20 rare right now.
If it shows up in MMII, it’ll drop to $5. The same is true for Modern cards that are only valuable due to scarcity and price memory – Cryptic Command will
stay relatively high if it’s reprinted because it shows up a lot. Ensnaring Bridge won’t, because it’s a very niche card.

I expect there to be a price resurgence in Modern at some point between now and MMII spoiler season, so I wouldn’t sell quite yet. Eternal prices are
usually at their height in February and March, and it’s always easier to sell into hype than at the bottom of the end-of-year market.

If you don’t think that seasonal leap will happen or you simply want to get ahead of the curve though, you should start adding these cards to your trade
binder at the very least. Other than my personal decks and collection, I don’t want to be holding any Modern legal rares earlier than Innistrad block
through May or June of 2015. The mythics are worth holding since they’re harder to reprint and shouldn’t fall off as much even if they do come back, but
most of these rares should be moved sooner rather than later.

What about commons and uncommons? Modern Masters I has kept the price for most of these cards low, with a few key exceptions:

I expect we’ll see most of this list printed alongside Kitchen Finks, Path to Exile, Electrolyze, and many of the holdover staples from Modern Masters. The
Merfolk are the least likely to make the cut since they’ll have to play well in Limited, and Forked Bolt might be too recent a staple to garner inclusion.
Otherwise, get ready for $0.50 Serum Visions and $2 Remands.

It may seem silly to think about Modern Masters before the set is even announced, but as anyone who was sitting on a pile of Wurmcoil Engines a few weeks
ago knows, you can’t wait around for reprints to happen before you act. While it might be too early to sell everything here, it’s not too early to make
shrewd trades with the future of Modern in mind. I know I’ll be looking to get out of many of these cards before the market is flooded and getting today’s
fair value is no longer possible.

This Week’s Trends

The big news on Friday was the announcement that StarCityGames is changing the Open Series. Here are the biggest aspects of that announcement:

Doubling(!!) the main event payout from $10,000 to $20,000.
Adding a Day 2 to the main event, similar to a PT or GP.
Lowering the Sunday event’s payout from $10,000 to $5,000 per tournament.
Adding an additional Sunday event so that Modern and Legacy are always represented.
Raising the Saturday entry fee to $50, but lowering the Sunday entry fee to $30.
Re-introducing byes to Saturday events.
Eliminating byes and flattening the payouts for Invitationals.
Adding additional vendors at select Opens.
Consolidating the SCG Live Commentary team.

First, let me say that I am writing this segment as someone who was not involved in any of the SCG Organized Play discussions. This is purely an outsider’s
take on things, and since some of the louder people on the internet are shouting that this means the end of Legacy, I’d like to take a measured look at
what these changes actually mean before we all begin to panic.

There are nineteen Opens scheduled from December through June. Three of them (Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Worcester) will be Legacy, and two of them
(Columbus and Baltimore) will be Modern. This is a bummer for us out here on the west coast – LA is a good Legacy town, I swear! – but it does mean that
about a quarter of the $20,000 Opens will feature Legacy or Modern. That is not an insignificant amount of play and coverage.

Second, these Opens are suddenly a much bigger deal. $20,000 is a massive weekend payout, and the addition of a second day was likely necessary to meet
growing demand. With all three formats in play each weekend, additional vendors, juiced prizes, a Day 2 cut, and tons of side events, SCG Opens are now
basically Grand Prix. This is awesome news for tournament grinders. You probably weren’t missing the Open when it came to your city anyway, but at this
point it’s a complete must-attend.

Aside from Legacy die-hards who will have a tough decision to make if they make Day 2 of the main event, most of the people who show up to play Modern and
Legacy will still have a high stakes competitive outlet in which to do it each time the Open comes to town. 5k tournaments were the norm a few years ago,
and Legacy can survive having one of those each week plus a 20k event every month and a half or so.

The biggest issue in my mind is that there will be less Twitch coverage of Legacy and Modern, as SCG will be covering Day 2 of Standard on 75% of Sundays
now. This will be fine as long as Standard is interesting, but it may hurt during months when Magic’s most popular format grows stagnant. It’s possible
that a small group of players were only attending Legacy Opens because of the 10k prize structure and the chance to be seen on a live-stream, but I doubt
most players will care all that much. Legacy will continue on buoyed by those who truly love it, much as it always has.

Honestly, I think that Legacy has a better shot at a long and healthy future when it is promoted but not forced down players’ throats. If you want to
actually kill Legacy, make it a monthly Grand Prix format and give it a Pro Tour. Volcanic Island will hit $800 and everyone you know will be priced out of
the format. With smaller events every weekend and a big tournament every few months, Legacy should remain a stable format without an unsustainable growth
curve. Value-wise, I still like dual lands and other reserved list staples as slow long-term risers. Smaller niche cards are worse long-term holds, and I
don’t really want to be holding them long term unless they’re in a deck of mine. Legacy should remain strong, but I doubt the next five years will have the
same crazy price growth of the last five.

Speaking of Eternal formats, power may be primed for another spike based on what was going on at GP New Jersey. I’ve been banging the ‘get your power now’
drum for months, and it just keeps rising. You’ve been warned.

We still aren’t at the bottom of the Standard market yet, and it’s crazy how much movement there’s been. A wide-open format like this one simply can’t
handle a bunch of $20+ cards. It’s not great for those of you with large collections, but it’s awesome if you’re looking to buy in. Make sure to see if
your favorite retailer or LGS is running a Black Friday sale this week – you can probably grab a bunch of staples at a serious discount.

The one card in Standard trending upward? Hero of Iroas. Omniscience is also spiking a little after making a good showing at Grand Prix New Jersey. That
card is a fine pick-up at anything under $10.

Still need Conspiracy singles for your cube or your Commander deck? I’m pretty sure we’re close to the bottom of the market for those. Grab your Council’s
Judgments and Mirari’s Wakes over the next month or so.