Standard didn’t just need a good Pro Tour—it needed a great one. It needed a high-profile event where the format was diverse, the gameplay was interesting, and everyone who spent their weekend watching the stream said, “Wow, I can’t wait to play FNM next week.” We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of Smuggler’s Copter, after all, and it’s been a rough road for what has historically been Magic’s most popular format.
Pro Tour Hour of Devastation did feature some fantastic gameplay moments. If you watched the stream, you’re probably feeling pretty good about where the format is right now. But avid stream-watchers are only a small part of the card-buying community, and the fact that five of the Top 8 decks at the Pro Tour were variations on Ramunap Red is not the sort of narrative that’s likely to bring lapsed players back to the format. Many of them are going to scan the Top 8 decklists, shrug, and move on.
Where does this leave us? Big-picture, I still suspect that the Pro Tour was a net positive for players who are currently engaged with Standard. Stream reactions on Twitter and Reddit were fairly positive, with players happy to see red doing well and excited to brew up interesting ways to fight the format’s new best deck. The Ramunap Red staples (we’ll cover them in a bit) all spiked, and they’ll remain fairly high for the foreseeable future. Other cards will start to increase in price as people figure out ways to combat Ramunap Red, too.
But to me, the big question going into the event was this: are the folks who stopped playing Standard this year due to bannings and frustration going to dip back in now, or will they wait until set rotation in September? At this point, the second scenario seems far more likely. And that’s going to limit the short-term ceiling on all of these cards—at least until we learn more about Ixalan.
Diving into Ramunap Red
There’s some interesting variation between the different Ramunap Red decks, but let’s begin with the cards they have in common.
Creatures (26)
- 4 Falkenrath Gorger
- 4 Village Messenger
- 4 Bomat Courier
- 3 Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
- 3 Hazoret the Fervent
- 4 Ahn-Crop Crasher
- 4 Earthshaker Khenra
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (24)
Spells (8)
Creatures (26)
- 4 Falkenrath Gorger
- 4 Village Messenger
- 4 Bomat Courier
- 3 Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
- 3 Hazoret the Fervent
- 4 Ahn-Crop Crasher
- 4 Earthshaker Khenra
Lands (21)
Spells (13)
Creatures (25)
- 4 Falkenrath Gorger
- 4 Bomat Courier
- 2 Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
- 3 Hazoret the Fervent
- 4 Ahn-Crop Crasher
- 4 Soul-Scar Mage
- 4 Earthshaker Khenra
Lands (23)
Spells (12)
First, all five Top 8 Ramunap Red decks are running some number of Hazoret the Fervent and Chandra, Torch of Defiance between the sideboard and the maindeck. Since these are the only two mythic rares you need to play Ramunap Red, it’s no coincidence that they’re the two cards that gained the most value over the weekend. Chandra is close to $40 right now, and Hazoret is sold out at $12 as of this writing.
While these two cards are likely going to peak over the next day or two, I don’t expect their prices to drop very fast or very far. Ramunap Red isn’t a flash-in-the-pan deck, and these two mythics are going to be the financial bottlenecks going forward.
All five Ramunap Red decks in the Top 8 also included a litany of lower-priced rares: Falkenrath Gorger, Bomat Courier, Earthshaker Khenra, and Kari Zev, Skyship Raider. Unsurprisingly, some of these cards also spiked over the weekend as well. Falkenrath Gorger jumped from $1 to $4, and Earthshaker Khenra from $1 to $5. As of this writing, you can still find Bomat Courier for about a buck and Kari Zev for bulk rare prices.
These secondary spikes tend to jump and level off more quickly, since there’s usually enough supply out there to meet demand—especially when the Pro Tour speculators begin selling off their copies a few days from now. If you’ve got any Earthshaker Khenras lying around, you should look into moving on from them pretty soon. If Kari Zev is still under $1 by the time you read this, though, you may want to grab a few sets. Most of these cards will settle in between $2 and $5 for the duration of Ramunap Red’s reign.
Last, Soul-Scar Mage and Collective Defiance made enough appearances to be worth noting. Collective Defiance is rotating soon, and it hasn’t really spiked as a result of the PT, but you can probably trade your copies fairly easily in the coming days. Soul-Scar Mage is little more interesting, and it’s worth watching to see if this is the Ramunap Red variant that gains the most traction over the coming days.
The Other Top 8 Decks
Shintaro Kurata’s B/R Aggro deck isn’t that much different from Ramunap Red. It uses most of the same rares, and it even runs a full four copies of Ramunap Ruins.
Creatures (25)
- 2 Eldrazi Obligator
- 4 Falkenrath Gorger
- 4 Bomat Courier
- 2 Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
- 3 Hazoret the Fervent
- 2 Soul-Scar Mage
- 4 Earthshaker Khenra
- 4 Ammit Eternal
Lands (23)
Spells (12)
Ammit Eternal might see a small bump, but the risk is too high and the upside is too low for me to advise you to buy them at current retail. I might trade for a few copies just in case. B/R Aggro did have the best Day 2 Conversion percentage at the Pro Tour, though the sample size was pretty small.
Creatures (20)
- 2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 3 Tireless Tracker
- 4 Grim Flayer
- 2 Verdurous Gearhulk
- 4 Winding Constrictor
- 1 Rishkar, Peema Renegade
- 4 Walking Ballista
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (23)
Spells (12)
Creatures (23)
- 3 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
- 4 Relentless Dead
- 4 Diregraf Colossus
- 4 Cryptbreaker
- 4 Lord of the Accursed
- 4 Dread Wanderer
Lands (24)
Spells (13)
Samuel Pardee’s B/G Constrictor build and Yusuke Sasabe’s Mono-Black Zombies build are both pretty similar to decks that have been kicking around the format for months. There aren’t any cards in here that we didn’t know about beforehand, so there weren’t really any spikes.
While the high finish at the Pro Tour means that cards like Relentless Dead and Liliana, the Last Hope aren’t going to fall off a cliff anytime soon, it’s worth remembering that many of these cards are going to rotate in less than two months. You might want to take advantage of this small hype window and sell ASAP if you’re not planning to play a bunch of Standard between now and late September.
The Disappointments and the No-Shows
Two weeks ago, it looked like W/U Monument, U/R Control, and Mardu Vehicles were going to be pillars of the new Standard format. If the Pro Tour was any indication, we might have been counting our chickens a little too soon.
Only seventeen players brought W/U Monument to the Pro Tour, and it had a poor conversion percentage of just 41%. Since so many of this deck’s cards are rotating in September and it seems so poorly positioned in the metagame right now, I’m expecting these prices to collapse fairly quickly. I’m selling all of these cards ASAP, even if I have to take a loss.
U/R Control and Mardu Vehicles were at least among the most-played decks on Day 1, and both had a conversion rate above 60%. These decks are likely to remain popular for the time being, especially U/R; people are going to play the best control deck in a given format, even if it’s not that great. I still expect cards like Torrential Gearhulk, Hour of Devastation, Gideon of the Trials, and Heart of Kiran to start dropping in price, though.
In the days leading up to the Pro Tour, rumors were flying about W/U God-Pharaoh’s Gift being the surprise hit of the tournament. In addition to its namesake card, the deck uses Cataclysmic Gearhulk, Angel of Invention, and Champion of Wits to do some pretty fun and impressive stuff.
In a world where Ramunap Red was everywhere, this deck might have made it. Unfortunately, it landed with more of a blip than a splash. The good news is that most of these cards aren’t going to rotate, and I wouldn’t be shocked if something similar to this shows up in some later iteration of the format. It’s also a whole lot better at local stores, where players aren’t prepared to beat it. In the meantime, though, I’m selling these staples. The current prices are based on an expectation of performance that just didn’t happen.
Cards That Might Spike as People Fight Ramunap Red
Tom Ross believes that Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet is the best card in Standard versus Ramunap Red. The only problem? Oath of the Gatewatch rotates in just a few months, and Kalitas still retails for $9. We might see a short-term spike, but I wouldn’t go too crazy unless you’re really good at quick flips.
What kind of shell might Kalitas show up in? Again, Tom Ross points to a W/B Tokens brew that’s specifically tuned to fight Ramunap Red. Again, too many of these cards are going to be rotating soon for me to get very excited, but I do like the fact that the deck runs four copies of Anointed Procession. Even at $7, that card has an absurdly high floor due to all the casual demand that it continues to have. If it ends up in a top-tier Standard list, it could hit $15.
Looking beyond that, Adrian Sullivan recommends Sweltering Suns as solid sideboard tech in a world full of tiny red creatures. This was the sweeper of choice for a while, but people had been moving back to Kozilek’s Return.
Might those numbers swing back the other way? The current price is too high for me to recommend buying in, but there might be a small increase if the format’s next great control brew ends up running several copies in the main deck.
Jim Davis suggests Cryptolith Rite as a way to fight back against Ramunap Red. Vizier of the Menagerie was a sexy pick for breakout card of the event, and this is the sort of shell where that card shines. Only three players sleeved it up at the Pro Tour, though, so we didn’t really get a chance to see how well it competes on a larger scale…yet. Keep a close eye on the SCG Tour over the next couple of weeks.
It’s also worth taking a look at the results from this MTGO PTQ, which took place the morning after the Pro Tour Top 8 was announced. Zero copies of Ramunap Red showed up in the Top 8 of this event, with Mono-Black Zombies, B/G Energy, B/G Constrictor, G/R Ramp, and even Mono-Black Eldrazi showing what might be the next evolutionary step in the current Standard format!
Black’s efficient removal spells and green’s high-toughness early creatures measure up well against Ramunap Red, and none of these decks are that far out of line from strategies that we know are successful in Standard right now. While I don’t expect Ramunap Red to disappear entirely—it really is that good—I expect the field to slow it down to the point where it is merely one good deck among many.
This Week’s (Other) Trends
In Standard, the biggest spikes either had to do with U/W God-Pharaoh’s Gift (before the Pro Tour) or Ramunap Red (during the Pro Tour). We’ve covered this pretty extensively, so there’s not much more to say.
Azusa, Lost but Seeking saw a major spike last week thanks to Bant Company’s success at the SCG Team Constructed Open in Atlanta. This deck has been somewhat on the outs for a bit, so there are a lot of cards that might see a bump if the metagame is shifting back toward Collected Company. It’s not a bad time to snag copies of Noble Hierarch and Voice of Resurgence, for example.
Mindmoil was a bulk rare last week, but now it’s up to a pretty stable $6 thanks to The Locust God in Commander. This is a solid card that was primed for a buyout, and I’m not surprised that it finally happened. Even though the impetus for the buyout was likely speculator-driven, the supply is low enough and the demand is high enough that I expect the new price to stick. Coastal Piracy also spiked last week, also thanks to The Locus God, but it’s a clunkier card with lower upside. I expect it’ll drop back toward $2 before long.
The Scarab God is continuing to cause spikes as well, with Lich Lord of Unx tripling in price last week. Can you believe that this former bulk rare is at $15 now? I expect it’ll end up settling in the $8-$10 range once the hype dies down, but boy howdy does Lich Lord of Unx need a reprint.
Over in Legacy, Urza’s Bauble (!) spiked, perhaps because of some renewed interest in a Bomberman-type strategy. There are a lot more of these kicking around than Mishra’s Baubles, and I’m still not quite sure who is actually buying them other than speculators. Sell into the hype if you can, but I’m not sure there’s any hype actually left.
It’s also worth noting that Drop of Honey’s price hasn’t dropped since the spike a few weeks back. In fact, its price continues to increase. There just aren’t that many copies of the cards from this era, and just a tiny bit of movement can sent any of them into the stratosphere.