Warning: Spoiler Alert!
Now that my strategy guide Next Level Magic has finally been released, I am switching gears for the summer, getting ready for Nationals. The Nationals format this year is, as usual, half Standard and half draft, cutting to a Standard Top 8. There has been a lot of Standard going on lately, but M10 promises to spice things up quite a bit.
The National Championship is a month away, taking place exactly one week after the M10 release. As is always the case with a major tournament happening right after a new release, this means there is a lot of room for a technological breakthrough. Without a Magic Online metagame or GP/PTQ results (at least of the exact same format) there will be an example opportunity for groundbreaking deckbuilders to showcase their skills. This is made doubly exciting by the fact that M10 is the first core set since Beta to feature brand new cards, containing well over 100 Magic cards that have never been seen before.
Since the new card pool that is being unveiled with M10 is so important for preparing for the National Championship, I and many others are keeping a close eye on possible spoiler information, to help us begin thinking about the format to come. I am already practicing with the M10 rules, as it is definitely the type of change that is worth getting used to early on.
I am very excited for the prerelease at which I am Gunslinging (Champion Challenger?) with StarCityGames.com headquarters in Virginia. I will be there the second weekend of July (which also happens to be my birthday), and I’ve got to say that M10 looks like it is going to be a great set, both in terms of power level as well as just plain fun. I am thrilled to see the spirit of Alpha being recaptured, with a renewed emphasis on cards that make the game fun and exciting.
I would like to talk today about some of the cards that have already been spoiled, as well as their possible applications. As always, all spoilers are courtesy of our friends at MTGSalvation.com. It is important to bear in mind that these spoilers are not 100% accurate, but rather based on the best information available, so be careful.
Let’s cut straight to the chase. One of the absolute biggest impact cards in the set (which might also be the most important) is the following:
Instant — R — Deal 3 damage to target creature or player.
That’s right! Lightning Bolt is (allegedly) in M10!
There are always a lot of wild rumors and much speculation, but it would appear that Lightning Bolt, as illustrated by Chris Moeller, is actually in M10, as the name and artwork have been confirmed. Now, given how absurd a card Lightning Bolt actually is, I would say I am only 80% sure it is in M10, despite being told it is 100% in, but still, every evidence I have leads me to believe that it actually is (although it is comical to see the floodgates open on talk of any and every absurd reprint that someone or another is fantasizing about, figuring if Lighting Bolt can be reprinted, than nothing is off limits).
Okay, so let’s talk about this for a minute. First of all, is it actually reasonable to think Lightning Bolt could be in M10? To begin with, the card is obviously the definition of flavorful, elegant, exciting, simple, captivating, nostalgic, and fun. This is the type of reprint that would get people excited, no question about it. On the flipside, Lightning Bolt is so obviously better than other burn spells that there is fear that it would destroy design space, as why would you ever play any other burn spell when you could play Lightning Bolt?
On the whole, however, I think that Lightning Bolt is a simple enough card, and one that contributes enough flavor, that as long as it did not warp the format too much, it could actually be a move Wizards might make. In addition, Burn spells are the type of thing that you could easily want more than four of in a deck, so I don’t think Lightning Bolt automatically obsoletes other burn spells.
The real question is, would Lightning Bolt be “Too Good?”
My initial reaction was “Probably, Right?” Notice, the question mark, however, as even in my first answer to myself, I acknowledged that I wasn’t actually sure why it would be too good, beyond it being deemed too good years ago.
Let’s start by comparing it to its two closest rivals, Shock and Incinerate. To begin with, Shock hasn’t been good in years. I mean, it is playable from time to time, but it has not been anywhere near good in a long time. What about Incinerate? Incinerate is essentially Lightning Bolt for a mana more, as the regeneration clause hasn’t been as relevant lately as it used to be.
Incinerate still sees a fair amount of tournament play and is a solid card, but few would argue that it is actually “good.” I mean, some times you just want a burn spell, so there you go, but it is not particularly strong itself, compared to the escalating power of the creatures that have been printed, such as Doran, Putrid Leech, Mistbind Clique, Bloodbraid Elf, Kitchen Finks, Noble Hierarch, Plumeveil, Broodmate Dragon, Cloudthresher, Wren’s Run Vanquisher, and Boggart Ram-Gang.
Okay, so it would seem pretty clear that there is room for a burn spell more powerful than Incinerate. Just how big a difference is between 1 and 2 mana?
To begin with, let’s look at 2 versus 3 mana. Counterspell versus Cancel does a pretty good job of summing up the difference a mana can make, and the difference between 2 and 3 is not even as big as the difference between 1 and 2. To get a feel for the difference between 1 and 2, look at Kird Ape versus Elvish Warrior in Extended, or Thoughtseize versus Distress (and remember that Kird Ape and Thoughtseize each have a “drawback” and are still many times better than Elvish Warrior and Distress).
So it would seem that knocking off a mana from Incinerate would make a pretty big difference. How would this really play out? Well, just look at the creatures that people play these days:
Tidehollow Sculler, Boggart Ram-Gang, Wren’s Run Vanquisher, Scion of Oona, Mutavault, Loxodon Hierarch, Kithkin (in general), Qasali Pridemage, Rafiq of the Many, Countryside Crusher, Sygg, Meddling Mage…
… Mistbind Clique, Spellstutter Sprite, Kitchen Finks, Reveillark, Mulldrifter, Plumeveil, Broodmate Dragon, Cloudthresher, Bloodbraid Elf, Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender, Rhox War Monk…
As you can see, there is a pretty good divide between things that Lightning Bolt beats profitably and things it does not, which is certainly the most interesting balance. This means that it is likely that Lightning Bolt would not be “too good” (like the Necropotence reprint in 5th) but at the same time not awful (like the Erhnam Djinn and Sengir Vampire reprints in Judgement and Torment).
Putrid Leech is possibly the most interesting card to be impacted by M10, as I think that there will be countless opportunities for players on either side of that battle to gain advantages through good play. Do you pump the Leech or not? If you pump and they have the Bolt, they blow you out. If you don’t pump and they don’t have the Bolt, it is like you are playing Grizzly Bears just because they can bluff you with a single Red mana. If you don’t pump and they have the Bolt, they are taking two a turn and wasting a Red mana every turn. This seems like an exciting conflict that will be revisited again and again.
Okay, so Lightning Bolt does not just obviously obsolete every creature in the format, as Swords to Plowshares would. What about as a burn spell? Well, as a burn spell, Lightning Bolt is hardly more disruptive to a format than Lava Spike. While Lava Spike is certainly Extended playable, it is only made this way because of the critical mass of Lava Spikes in the format. In addition, the Lava Spike deck may be somewhat playable, but it is rarely (if ever) actually good.
No, the more generally powerful application is as a cheap removal spell that gains tempo but also threatens to dome the opponent for a reasonable amount. As such, Lightning Bolt actually seems believable, if a little scary because of how aggressive it is and how much of a power creep it implies (it does make it tough for other cards to ever get played over it for a similar role).
How would one actually use Lighting Bolt in the new Standard? Well, there are a variety of applications, the most obvious of which is just replacing Incinerate with Lighting Bolt in every dedicated Red deck. This is just about the most obvious idea ever, however, so perhaps it is more interesting to look at what decks would use Lighting Bolt that did not use Incinerate. Remember, there was once a day when people would play cards like Lighting Bolt in their deck without it being a burn deck or a weenie-burn deck.
Having a cheap removal spell that is never totally dead, and even has nice applications against Planeswalkers, while being powerful enough to stick in a non-burn deck, is exciting. Naturally, my thoughts went straight to 5CB. The high tempo play might fit nicely, helping make up for time spent playing tapped lands. The interaction with Sygg is not to be overlooked. Even Incinerate is always on my list of cards to consider, and knocking a mana off the price tag is probably enough to get me in.
It would seem that there will be a push towards more decks that are either friendly two-color, a regular three-color shard, or five-color. Without the painlands (primarily the enemy painlands), it is looking more and more like the manabases that are possible will greatly dictate the color combinations played.
As you have surely heard, painlands are not going to be in M10, instead being replaced by a new cycle of five friendly-color duals.
As I said, there will be one for each of the friendly color combinations, and for the most part, these seem much better than the outdated painlands, though it should be noted that the best painlands were often Llanowar Wastes, Caves of Koilos, and Forge[/author]“]Battlefield [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author] (and Underground River).
The new dual lands are definitely pretty powerful, but lend themselves much more to two- and three-color decks, rather than the four- and five-color monstrosities that Vivids promote. The fact that they are essentially a giant free-roll in two-color decks is obvious, but interestingly, they work very effectively at making dedicated three-color shard decks. For instance, imagine the following manabase:
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Murky Tidewater (The U/B dual that needs Swamp or Island)
4 Arcane Sanctum
2 Mystic Gate
2 Sunken Ruins
6 Island
2 Plains
2 Swamp
It is exciting to imagine the direction this type of deck building could take us. Faeries gets a pretty straightforward upgrade to its manabase, as now its Underground Rivers are painless, but what about other two-color manabases?
Red/Green:
4 Rootbound Crag
4 Fire-Lit Thicket
10 Forest
6 Mountain
While not particularly exciting, at least these looks like the foundation of a fairly reliable two-color manabase with almost no drawback, as long as you stick to a friendly combination. The leap to full-on Shard is not a large one, though, and I suspect that three-color decks will grow more and more popular. For instance:
Jund Blood, Post M10 Prototype
4 Putrid Leech
2 Sygg, River Cutthroat
4 Boggart Ram-Gang
4 Kitchen Finks
2 Anathemancer
4 Bloodbraid Elf
1 Briarhorn
2 Broodmate Dragon
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Jund Charm
2 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Bituminous Blast
4 Savage Lands
4 Rootbound Crag
4 Desolate Cairns
4 Twilight Mire
4 Swamp
4 Forest
1 Mountain
This list is pretty straightforward. It still doesn’t look sexy enough to have me wanting to put down the Cryptic Commands, but it is a starting point. The main problem is the lack power. Lighting Bolt is a nice high tempo play, but that doesn’t mean it will make up for the raw power of cards like Cryptic Command or Cruel Ultimatum. Bloodbraid Elf and Bituminous Blast are certainly powerful, as are Putrid Leech and Bolt, but what does this deck really have that its opponent won’t have? I guess the theory is consistency, but I think it could really go for another four-drop.
You may notice that I am beginning to move away from Anathemancer (at least main) and that is not just a result of current deckbuilding trends (people actually accounting for his existence, both with regards to their manabases and with regards to their hate, like Puppeteer Clique). I also think that M10 will continue the push towards decks with 8-16 basics. It just seems like Anathemancer may slightly diminish in value as a result of the new incentives people have for playing basics.
Duress is rumored to be in M10, and to be honest, it makes sense, though I am pretty sure it will not be as insane as people remember. First of all, you have to remember that Duress wasn’t actually insane to begin with, and was merely good because of the types of overpowered spells people played during Urza Block. In addition, creatures were not as good back then, ensuring that Duress would hit most of the time. Thoughtseize is generally a stronger card, and even Thoughtseize doesn’t see universal use.
That said, Duress is going to be a sweet sideboard card that may have some nice maindeck applications. It will be especially refreshing that Duress is going to be easy to come by, as opposed to Thoughtseize. The lack of lifeloss is also not irrelevant, such as in a Faeries deck or against a Red deck. In fact, it is interesting to think about Faeries players wanting to play more than 4 Thoughtseize type effects, though with Underground River being replaced by Murky Tidewater, it would seem that it is even more difficult than before to reliably Duress/Thoughtseize the opponent’s Bitterblossom on turn 1. Still, I wonder if the option to play 5-8 Duress/Thoughtseizes (after sideboard) is enough of an incentive to play more Swamps in a new Faeries deck…
It is exciting to think about the advantages of Duress, such as how well it combines with Cryptic Command late game to kill Planeswalkers, or the synergy with Jace (ensuring it is not a dead card later), or the synergy with Vendilion Clique/Meddling Mage/Runed Halo/Thought Hemorrhage. Still, the creatures are so good these days, it seems hard to imagine a reasonable number of match-ups where it is just going to suck so much to be unable to take Cloudgoat Ranger or Reveillark or Bloodbraid Elf or Putrid Leech. We’ll see… Either way, it is a nice card to have in the format.
Acidic Slime was already previewed on MagicTheGathering.com, so this one is 100% confirmed, and I can honestly say it is one of my favorite cards in a while. I think it is pretty good, sure, but I just enjoy the flavor and the feel of it. I love two-for-ones, I love utility spells, and I love random creatures with random abilities that I would normally not get to play with in Constructed.
First of all, you have to remember that Creeping Mold was a solid card in its day, at 2GG for the same effect, without the guy. I think that Creeping Mold wouldn’t be particularly exciting today, but it is still a reasonable card.
Then we look at the 2/2 Deathtouch. This would normally be decent in Limited at 4, and while this type of guy would normally not see play in Constructed unless it was absurdly undercosted, it actually benefits a lot from the higher cost and the card advantage.
Acidic Slime is not just a Creeping Mold and a guy, as the Deathtouch will often allow the Slime to “trade-up” by taking down a Putrid Leech, a Ram-Gang, a Vanquisher, a Colossus, or Doran. You may normally not want to pay for Deathtouch, but since you are getting the body for so little cost, but on a mid-game spell, it actually ends up making it difficult for many opponents to not give up value.
Acidic Slime seems like a nice way to stick answers into a deck for cards that are normally not worth specifically targeting, like Glorious Anthem, Mutavault, Windbrisk Heights, Loxodon Warhammer, and Tidehollow Sculler. Also, I am excited at the proposition of Reveillarking this guy back. That said, he doesn’t actually accomplish what Lark seems to need, nor does he address the real problem permanents (Planeswalkers, Tokens, and Card advantage creatures like Bloodbraid Elf and Kitchen Finks), nor is he fast (in a format that has no shortage of expensive good cards).
All in all, though, I love that this guy exists, and I think he has plenty of applications. I have always had a soft spot for Basilisk, and it is cool to see a tournament playable version made. That is just plain fun.
The last card I want to talk about today is Ball Lightning. Ball Lightning is one of the most feared plays a Red Mage has ever had access to, and there is the potential for a bit of a shake-up when it is reprinted in M10. Many a theorist has said that getting hit by a Ball Lightning usually equates to losing.
On the flipside, however, Groundbreaker appeared in Planar Chaos and hardly made an impact. Had the times changes that much? Of course, savvy players realized that Groundbreaker suffered greatly from being Green, as Green may be a fine color, but it is not the color of Burn, which is the strategy that most appreciates Ball Lightning’s services.
A new Red deck built for speed will probably be one of the new baselines for Standard (as it often is), though it will likely turn out to be Tier 2 once people tune their decks correctly. Here is a starting point:
Red Deck Wins
Patrick Chapin
4 Tattermunge Maniac
4 Figure of Destiny
4 Hellspark Elemental
4 Jund Hackblade
4 Ball Lightning
4 Boggart Ram-Gang
4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Colossal Might
4 Flame Javelin
4 Rootbound Crag
4 Fire-lit Thicket
4 Savage Lands
10 Mountain
I know it is just a rough draft, but that is a pretty scary list, if you ask me. What are people going to have to do to evolve?
Now, let’s move onto another format… Vintage.
I know that the recent changes to the Vintage Restricted List (Thirst for Knowledge restricted; Entomb, Crop Rotation, Enlightened Tutor, and Grim Monolith unrestricted) are not going to solve everything over night, but I do think that those are important steps towards trying to save the format.
Many people point to the restrictions of Brainstorm, Ponder, Merchant Scroll, Gush, and Flash as the turning point in the format, but I feel very strongly that the real problem is Time Vault.
First there were Black Lotus and Ancestral Recall and it put a strain on the format, but it was okay. Then there were Tinker and Yawgmoth’s Will, and it began the downward descent. The strain began increasing on the format, as it started meaning that restrictions didn’t even matter, and that a new card drawer or tutor would always replace the old ones that got restricted.
Now there is a fifth true power card, Time Vault. Time Vault is behind only Ancestral Recall and Black Lotus (in my opinion), and is the only reasonable way to win in Vintage. The format cannot take Time Vault, Ancestral Recall, Black Lotus, Yawgmoth’s Will, and Tinker forming a core of all decks, and we are reaching the point where it is becoming clear that you could restrict every single Blue card not named Force of Will and it wouldn’t even matter.
Sure, Mana Drain is still out there, but honestly, you wouldn’t miss it that much if it was gone. Time Vault is the straw that has broken the camel’s back. There is no more room for Vintage to work with just a restricted list, at least not by restricting more. Restrict everything but Force of Will and it won’t matter, the Time Vault Blue deck will be the best. Restrict everything including Force of Will, and Time Vault will still be the best, it will just be much faster.
There is nowhere to go with more restrictions, so the only solutions left to us are:
1) Unrestrictions — This is the ideal step for now and Entomb, Crop Rotation, Enlightened Tutor, and Grim Monolith are perfect, as they are not merely ascetic, like Dream Halls and Personal Tutor, but rather strong cards that might help open up some competition. I also like unrestricting only 4-5 cards at a time, as it gives people a chance to appreciate each way without too much interference from other waves.
2) Changing the rules of Vintage — I am not sure what you would change them to, whether it involves larger decks, not being able to play ALL of the best restricted cards, or what, but no matter how you slice it, this change would be VERY ugly and probably would not feel good. I recommend against it, at least until the powers that be are VERY sure that it would be more fun as well as good for the format.
3) Printing new cards that more directly target Vintage — In my opinion, this is without question the best solution long term, though it takes at least a year to implement. It would be so easy to have such a positive impact on the format with minimal space used if they only tried.
For instance (and Wizards obviously has 100% rights to these ideas, I claim no responsibility, and if they simultaneously develop similar or identical ideas, it is not necessarily because of reading them here, but rather great minds thinking alike):
Corrosive Ooze
Creature — Ooze
3GGG
Trample
When Corrosive Ooze enters the Battlefield, destroy target non-creature permanent. During an opponent’s upkeep, if they took the previous turn as well, you may put Corrosive Ooze into play from your hand, then end the turn.
5/5
Dark Deal
Sorcery
B
Target player looks through your library and exiles up to three cards. Then look through that player’s library and exile up to three cards. Both players shuffle their libraries.
Divine Dichotomy
Enchantment
1W
Players may not attack or block more than two creatures. Players may not play more than two spells in a turn. If a player controls two or more artifacts, artifacts they control cost an additional two to play. If more than two cards go to a player’s graveyard in a turn, remove that player’s graveyard from the game.
Innovate
Instant
U
Draw two cards, then put a card from your hand on top of your library.
I think that one could design a couple of cards with more of an eye towards Vintage that would still be very interesting in other formats as well. I particularly like Innovate, as that would have been my invitational card last year, and I think it would capture all of the fun of Brainstorm, with less of the obnoxiousness. I also like Corrosive Ooze (or some card featuring a similar mechanic) as it is engineered to actually help the Time Vault problem, as well as having other interesting applications and exploring new design space.
Thanks again to everyone who has written to me with feedback on Next Level Magic, it is much appreciated. See you guys next week!
Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”