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Going Infinite – Jace, Survival and Other Exciting News

Monday, November 8th – In the world of MTG finance, information is king. The key is determining which information is useful and which information is not.

In the world of MTG finance, information is king. The key is determining which information is useful and which information is not. Obviously, decklists and recommendations from the pros are good pieces of information to consider, but what about other seemingly innocuous stuff? Have you considered the financial impact of the newly revamped tournament series? This week I want to talk about a couple pieces of MTG news that are of financial interest. Let’s start with the new revamped StarCityGames.com Open Series.

StarCityGames.com Open Series = More Awesome

If you haven’t checked out the details for the new Open Series, go and do that now; you can read the announcement and watch the video introduction
here.

Isn’t that insane? For the first time ever, I’m seriously considering putting the card dealing on the back burner to get serious about playing competitively. The StarCityGames.com Open Player’s Club really makes this tournament series stand out, and the opportunities to make money are plentiful.

So, why would I mention this? Is this just a commercial for the upcoming Open Series? No way — you should know by now I don’t do commercials. This bit of news should get you thinking about supply and demand.

When there’s more money on the line, there’s more justification to spend money on cards. If I’m even thinking about throwing my hat into the competitive ring, you can imagine what the PTQ grinders are thinking! They’re probably wiping the saliva off their keyboards as we speak. This means that the demand for Standard and Legacy cards is going to increase. This will translate to opportunities to gain more value and another year of trying to decide what to invest in and what to dump. My hopes for next week’s article is to talk about the card pools for each format, but this week I only want to talk about two cards. Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve received a lot of questions about two specific cards, specifically regarding their longevity and strategy for investing in them. I want to give you my thought process on these two cards and my recommendations for investing in them.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor

As a player, I love me some Jace, the Mind Sculptor. As a dealer, I have mixed feelings. If I have a Jace, there’s no doubt that I’ll get value for it. If someone offers to trade me one, I’d be stupid not to trade for it, but I don’t want to stock Jaces. If I do trade for one, I try to move it as soon as I can. This is me being cautious; that’s how I am. I like sure bets, and I don’t like hanging out in the danger zone just to make a couple of bucks. Let’s talk more about Jace and see if we can’t make more sense out of my hesitation to stock him.

Jace is becoming the gold standard for Magic cards. When I’m trading for a Black Lotus, the first question that I get is, “Do you have any Jaces?” I always respond, “Beleren?” Yes, my smart-assery never ceases. Did you notice that the question was not “Do you have any Tarmogoyfs?” and not “Do you do you have any Underground Seas?” This level of reverence that Jace is being given is just mind-blowing. I’m not saying that he doesn’t deserve it, but this pricing phenomenon begs the question, “How long can this go on?” Some people asked that same question, before they decided to “wait for the price to drop.” Guess what guys? That’s not happening.

Jace isn’t going down right now. He’s going to go higher before he goes lower.

I’ve been monitoring eBay, and a few months ago, Jaces could still be had for between $60 and $70; now the norm is between $70 and $80. There are even some people who are willing to drop a hundo on the blue menace. Check out
this completed auction!

Jace is on the rise, and there are only two things that can reverse this pattern.

The only thing that can reverse Jace’s upward pricing trend is if he gets banned or reprinted. These two things are unlikely, but in the event that one of these things does happen, we can expect to see his current price chopped in half. That’s what makes me nervous. I don’t want to be the guy holding the bag with fifty Jaces in my binder if something should go wrong. This is what happened to me with Tarmogoyfs and Dark Confidants when the new Extended news hit. This is why I don’t like stocking Jaces because his value is too complex.

Complex Value

When a card’s value is complex, a slight change in one of the layers can affect the price in a big way. Let’s look at why Jace is worth what he’s worth.

  • He’s a powerhouse in Standard.
  • He’s played in Extended.
  • He’s played in Legacy.
  • He’s a powerhouse in Vintage.
  • He’s a planeswalker, which brings collectible and casual aspects.

  • He’s in cubes.
  • He’s in EDH decks.

Now imagine that he gets banned in one of those formats. Then the demand from that audience ceases to exist, and some of their copies go back on the market which increases supply, which will lower the price. The same logic can be applied if there’s a reprint. It can also be applied to something that’s sure to happen: when Jace rotates out of Standard, his demand will decrease, and his price will drop.

If you look at a card like Underground Sea, it’s less complex.

  • It’s the cornerstone for Legacy mana bases.
  • It’s the cornerstone for Vintage mana bases.
  • It’s out of print.
  • It’s in cubes.
  • It’s in EDH decks.

The reserve list protects this from a reprint. It’s also only played in two formats, which protects it from losing value due to rotation. This value is less complex and more dependable. When I invest over $50 in a card, I expect a dependable value. This is why I don’t invest heavily in Jace. So, what am I saying?

I shared a lot of thoughts on the value of Jace for two reasons:

1) To show you how I think. It’s this kind of thinking that makes me flexible to changes.

2) To give you a game plan for investing in Jace.

Let’s summarize the game plan.

  • If you need Jaces to play Magic now, get them. Stop waiting, or you’re going to pay more.

  • Don’t invest heavily in extra Jaces; his value is complex, and he’s sure to lose value in the future.

  • Keep watch for a banning or reprint, and be ready to ship your Jaces, just in case.

Let’s shift gears to Legacy and talk about the second elephant in the room, Survival of The Fittest. This deck has been dominating the tables at the last few StarCityGames.com Legacy Opens. We’re all a little gun-shy ever since the swift banning of Mystical Tutor earlier this year, and everyone’s wondering if Survival is next on the chopping block. I don’t think so.

Survival is one of the great archetypes of Legacy, and I don’t think WotC is in the business of removing entire archetypes from a format. Typically, if a deck becomes too powerful, WotC tries to reduce its speed or consistency. A good example of this is the fact that they banned Mystical Tutor rather than Entomb (again) and/or Tendrils of Agony. If you look at the new Survival decks, you can see that two new cards add to the deck’s consistency and speed.

The Survival archetype recently gained Fauna Shaman and Vengevine. I think that this is the first place that WotC would look when considering a ban for Survival if it became a problem. Fauna Shaman adds consistency to the deck, and Vengevine adds raw power. In my opinion, if anything were to be banned in Legacy, it would be Vengevine, since he can’t be shut off with Pithing Needle, and he requires a very small mana investment to get the engine going.

If Vengevine did get banned, what would that mean for Survival of the Fittest? I’d expect a slow decline from its current price, down to around its pre-Vengevine price of $30-35. The decline would be slow because people would still try to make the deck work without Vengevine, and it might take down some wins, but I doubt that it would still be as powerful as it is now. If Survival of the Fittest gets banned, then it’ll probably drop to about $15-20. It’s still popular in EDH and cubes.

My recommended game plan for Survival of the Fittest is if you don’t have them, don’t buy them until after the next banned and restricted announcement. If you have them but don’t use them, sell them now so that you can capitalize on the price spike.

While I’m on the topic, people have also been asking about Loyal Retainers. This is a Portal Three Kingdoms (P3K) card which is used in some Survival builds (the ones with white). This card’s price isn’t married to the success of the Survival decks. It was a 100-or-more-dollar card before it was “hot,” and it will continue to be up there. It carries a high price tag because it’s from P3K, and it’s playable. Even the unplayable P3K cards carry pretty hefty price tags. If you’re thinking about investing in one, it’s important to know the value hierarchy of the different languages for P3K. English carries the highest value, followed by Japanese, and Chinese is worth the least. This is because the print runs were higher in the Asian countries. If you’re looking to pick one of these up on the cheap, wait until after the next banned and restricted announcement, and pick up a Chinese one. If you need one for competitive Magic now, then go for an English one. This will open your options up when you go to resell it later.

There are a lot of cards that I want to talk about for Standard and Legacy, but I’m going to save them for next week. This week I just wanted to cover the two hot topics. I also wanted to talk about another tidbit.

MTGO Precons

Wizards of the Coast announced that they’ll be releasing entry-level preconstructed Legacy decks on Magic Online; check out the
forum post.

These were
originally announced for November 8th, but they’ve since been moved to a
TBD status.

The forum post says that these decks will sell for $29.99. Let’s look at the decks and then we’ll talk about what this means for certain MTGO singles.

Boltslinger

This is your typical burn deck. There are obviously some things that can be added to make it better, but the deck seems pretty strong for a precon!

Creatures
4 Goblin Guide
4 Hellspark Elemental
4 Keldon Marauders

Spells
4 Fireblast
4 Flames of the Blood Hand
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Magma Jet
1 Price of Progress
4 Chain Lightning
4 Lava Spike
3 Rift Bolt

Lands
20 Mountain

Sideboard
3 Price of Progress
4 Pyrostatic Pillar
4 Pyroblast
4 Relic of Progenitus

The total value of this deck is currently 60.56 tickets. The key cards to look at in this deck are Goblin Guide and Price of Progress both weighing in at 4.5 tickets. You can expect a drop in the price of these two cards. I’ve already noticed that people are dropping Goblin Guides on my Bot. If you have these cards, you might want to sell them now and then pick them up after the release of the new decks.

Exiler

This is a version of an old, “gimmicky” Legacy deck. It’s the Mangara combo deck in a White Weenie shell. I feel like they should’ve gone in the W/U Tempo direction, but that would’ve required Wastelands, so it’s understandable that they opted for the cheaper version.

Creatures
3 Serra Avenger
4 Flickerwisp
3 Jotun Grunt
3 Ethersworn Canonist
4 Benevolent Bodyguard
1 Weathered Wayfarer
4 Mangara of Corondor
3 Stoneforge Mystic

Spells
3 Oblivion Ring
4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Aether Vial
1 Bonesplitter
1 Umezawa’s Jitte

Lands
3 Flagstones of Trokair
3 Karakas
2 Mishra’s Factory
14 Plains

Sideboard
2 Aura of Silence
4 Kor Firewalker
1 Ethersworn Canonist
3 Silence
4 Relic of Progenitus

The total price of this deck is $69.62. The key cards to look at in this deck are Stoneforge Mystic, which is currently selling for 8.5 tickets and Karakas (3.75) and Umezawa’s Jitte (3.25). This means big trouble for the price of Stoneforge Mystic.  If you have any of these three cards, I recommend that you sell them as soon as you can, at least the Stoneforge Mystics. Then re-buy them after the deck’s release.

The idea of these decks is something that MTGO investors should keep in mind. Who knows what the next versions of these decks will hold? It also shows that WotC really wants to make Legacy happen on MTGO. Keep an eye out for what’s going to be in Master’s Edition 4. I get the feeling that there will be some Legacy stables that will increase in value based on what’s in MED4. For those who don’t care about MTGO, you should think about what this means for the “Event Decks” that will be released in paper. 

Next Week on Going Infinite…

That’s all I have for this week. Next week we’ll talk about each format and the cards that you should be watching. This is especially important for Extended; we’ll get a jump on the market and make some buys, while everyone else is thinking about Standard. See you then. Thanks for reading!


Jonathan

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