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Financial Value Of Gatecrash V

Ben Bleiweiss shares his financial expertise on Gatecrash cards, with insight into their preorder trends. He discusses Mind Grind, Stolen Identity, High Priest of Penance, & more.

Welcome to the second week of my daily Financial Value of Gatecrash articles! There were a small number of new cards spoiled on Monday and a few cards that jumped in price over the weekend. Let’s dive right into the spoilers!
New Cards
Mind Grind

Starting Price: $3

Thoughts: People often ask, “How do you arrive at the preorder prices for cards, when they haven’t been released yet?” Part of the answer is seeing how auctions have done on eBay during the first few hours of sale. Another part of the answer is checking the comparable values of cards that have similar effects to the newly spoiled card. For example:

Mind Funeral: Uncommon, $5
Glimpse the Unthinkable: Rare, $20

These are the two closest comps to Mind Grind. Unlike both Glimpse and Mind Funeral, Mind Grind hits all opponents, making it extremely powerful in casual/Commander play. The main drawback to Mind Grind is that you cannot target yourself—but the majority of value for the above two cards is to casual players who love the mill strategy, so I expect Mind Grind to maintain value based on precedent.

Stolen Identity

Starting Price: $2

Thoughts: Normally I’d set a six-mana clone effect at $1, which is the upper end of bulk rare pricing. There are two reasons I have set the bar higher on Stolen Identity.

  1. 1. Stolen Identity can copy artifacts and creatures. Most cards of this sort can only copy creatures.
  2. 2. I’m very much a fan of the cipher mechanic. In Constructed, I believe you will often be able to connect once with one of your cipher-encoded creatures before your opponent deals with that creature. I’d read this card as “UU4, Sorcery: Put a copy of target artifact or creature into play. Repeat this effect.” Double-clone for six mana seems very strong and is a reason to tap out on turn six if you’re playing a midrange deck.
Dimir Charm

Starting Price: $0.50

Thoughts:
I’m not a huge fan of this Charm, but there’s been a lot of buzz around every Charm that has been spoiled from both Return to Ravnica and now this set. To note: This combines Envelop, Swat, and a kind-of Ponder on either player (sans drawing a card). I expect the foil version to command a premium, but I don’t see the non-foil version hitting over $0.50.

Urban Evolution

Starting Price: $0.50

Thoughts:
I also am starting Urban Evolution at $0.50, but I think that it has upward potential. The effect is very strong in Commander and may be good enough to push into Standard. It’s just one mana off of Harmonize, and the secondary effect (Explore) is not normally attached to a mass-card drawing effect.

Recap of Spoiled Cards
Clan Defiance

Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $4

Thoughts: Clan Defiance continues to sell strong, but I think $4 is the cap of where it will reach during the preorder period.

High Priest of Penance

Starting Price: $2.50

Current Price: $4

Thoughts:
We started the High Priest at $1.50, and it sold very quickly. I raised it to $2.50, and other vendors were buying us out 20+ copies at a time. Current eBay finishing prices are at $16-$20 a set, so I put our price at the low-end of current market value. It still is doing well, and so I would keep an eye on the High Priest to have further growth.

Mystic Genesis

Starting Price: $1.50

Current Price: $1

Thoughts:
Down to bulk rare range, due to slow presales so far. At least a few people got their Preorder Price Guarantee triggered!

Previous Editions of Financial Value of Gatecrash

First mentions of cards are listed below. However there are also updated prices and specuation in each edition.