Financial Value Of Gatecrash I

Thoughts: Titans proved that six-mana creatures are playable if they have a good enough effect. I believe Aurelia is at the threshold of tournament playability in Standard—she attacks for six the turn she comes into play (since she gives herself a second attack phase), and she works well with the Boros keyword ability. The relentless assault ability has always been on the precipice of playability, and Aurelia pushes it as hard as it’s ever been pushed before. If it’s not going to be good here, it’s probably never going to be good on a card without breaking.

Thoughts: Eight mana pushes Borborygmos to the twin realm of casual play and reanimator target. He may be good in Commander, but in Constructed the extra five mana isn’t worth an extra damage-a-land over Seismic Assault for Modern/combo. I expect him to come down in price to the $3-$4 range shortly after set release.

Thoughts: There was not enough Return to Ravnica printed to meet initial demand on the set. This caused all of the tournament-playable cards in R2R to spike in price, and most have slowly tapered off since, as supply meets demand. I expect the same out of Gatecrash—I still do not believe Wizards has found the proper level of supply vs. demand for preorder product—but I do not believe it will be as severe as what happened with Return to Ravnica. I believe all five of the shocklands will hold value at $15 for a few weeks after release and start dropping to the $10-$12.50 range about a month out. The price difference depends on which color decks end up seeing Standard play and which decks do well in Modern (we will be entering a Modern season!). Unlike the first go-around, scarcity will not play a role in price. There was less Dissension out there than Ravnica and Guildpact, leading to a higher price for Breeding Pool and Hallowed Fountain. I don’t think this is the case for Return to Ravnica or Gatecrash, so the pricing of these shocks will be solely on merit.

Thoughts: Seems like it’s going to make one heck of a token card but otherwise does not seem to be very exciting for competitive play. As an Angel, should have appeal to casual players, but not enough to keep it from dropping to the $2-$3 range around release.

Thoughts: Seems solid but unspectacular. Cheap enough to see play and can net card advantage—but you’re likely never getting the ultimate ability to go off. I see Domri settling in the $10-$15 range after the initial release shortage eases up.

Thoughts: I don’t think you’re ever going to be hard-casting this spell, but there are plenty of ways to cheat it out—Sins of the Past seems like one particularly juicy way to Enter the Infinite in Modern. Omniscience had Show and Tell to propel it in Legacy—I don’t believe there’s anything as easy to cheat out as a sorcery (keep an eye on Dream Halls, just in case!).

Thoughts: All five Return to Ravnica rares that were also Prerelease cards have had a suppressed value because of all of the extra copies floating around. I see no reason for there to be an exception to this for Gatecrash cards of the same ilk; Fathom Mage should see a lot of casual play but is likely too fragile for Constructed play.

Thoughts: Should drop to $2 once the Prerelease versions flood the market. I’m not super-excited about a 3/3 flyer for four mana, given the precedents of Angel of Jubilation, Bloodline Keeper, Dungeon Geists, Emeria Angel, Misthollow Griffin, and Sangromancer. Other comps at this cost are Hellrider and Olivia Voldaren—and both of those cards immediately could impact the board the turn they enter the battlefield. Firemane Avenger really needed haste to push it over the top from “borderline” to “good.”

Thoughts: See Breeding Pool.

Thoughts: A bulk mythic rare. Should drop to the $1.50 – $2 range post-release.

Thoughts: Starting as a bulk rare but could get juicy depending on how quickly casual players grok onto it. Reminds me of Rings of Brighthearth—that card took a couple of years to make a real price jump, but once it did, it stayed there. I’m not buying three-card combos with Captain of the Mists and Gilded Lotus for Constructed play, though.

Thoughts: I’m really not a fan of bloodrush as a mechanic that has Constructed potential, but I of course reserve full judgment until all of the cards with bloodrush are spoiled. I do think that Gruul got a Limited-centric mechanic for a second straight Ravnica cycle.

Thoughts: See Breeding Pool; though the first time around Sacred Foundry was the least-valuable shockland. I believe that between Standard and Modern play, this will not be the case this time around.

Thoughts: See Breeding Pool; but one of the stronger Modern shocklands, right at the start of a Modern PTQ season.

Thoughts: Great for casual play and will be a Commander staple. However, costs one too many or is +1/+1 too small for serious Constructed play.

Thoughts: See Breeding Pool.

Thoughts: The biggest winner for the cipher mechanic is Invisible Stalker, especially since there are no longer elemental swords to go around. I don’t think Whispering Madness is that good of a card (like other Windfall variants, it’s just not fantastic without a super-fast combo deck to go along with it), but the cipher mechanic has a lot of potential to be game-breaking in Standard. Will likely drop down to $1, but I am very hopeful about other cipher cards hitting a higher watermark in price.