Just as I opened the year, so I’m now exploring the most prominent, large tournament results of February Type One. January was filled with”atomic” (Bazaar and Workshop) aggro, and now we’ll see a rebound of other categories, most notably control in the form of Hulk Smash.
Normally I define”large tournament” as fifty or more people, but when I finally couldn’t wait any longer to start the decklist-crunching, there were only four such tournaments’ results available, even including a belatedly-posted Barcelona event from January. Luckily, there was a highly competitive forty-two-person New England tournament available to round out the results with a fifth event. (Not to mention that North America was lacking representation this month.) Just when I finished all of the data work, of course, I got two more big events from the weekend of the 28th and 29th. Redoing all the data wasn’t appealing, even to me, so those two (Milan and Copenhagen) will appear in a month.
2004-01-18 Barcelona (52 players)
1. Rector Tendrils
2. Gobvantage
3. Gobvantage
4. Slavery (non-Workshop)
5. BUGR Hulk Smash (no LD)
6. MUD (mono-Brown)
7. SuperGro
8. Rector Trix
2004-02-08 Pavia (53 players)
1. Stax
2. Keeper
3. TPS
4. TPS
5. Rector Tendrils
6. Madness
7. Vengeur Masque
8. Iso-GAT
2004-02-08 Dulmen (93 players) (Missing #3)
1. MadDragon
2. BUG Hulk Smash (1 LD)
3. Dragon
4. KrOathan Keeper
5. Goblin Sligh
6. BUG Hulk Smash (1 LD)
7. UR Stacker
8. Stax
2004-02-15 Turin (74 players) (Missing #6 and #1)
1. Iso-GAT
2. Stax (w/ Mindslaver)
3. Rector Tendrils
4. RUG Madness
5. Mono-Brown Stacker
6. TnT
7. IsoKeeper (Urw)
8. Rector Tendrils & Trix
2004-02-15 New Hampshire (42 players)
1. Slavery
2. TnT
3. Dragon
4. UR Landstill
5. BUGR Hulk Smash (no LD)
6. BUGR Hulk Smash (no LD)
7. RUG Madness
8. IsoKeeper
5 tournament totaled (42,52,53,74,93 = 62.8 players average)
5 Hulk Smash (2,5,5,6,6)
5 Rector Tendrils/Trix (1,3,5,8,8)
3 Stax (1,2,8)
3 Madness (4,6,7)
2 Slavery (1,4)
2 Gobvantage (2,3)
2 Keeper (2,4)
2 Dragon (3,3)
2 TPS (3,4)
2 TnT (2,6)
2 Iso-GAT (1,8)
2 Stacker (5,7)
2 IsoKeeper (7,8)
1 MadDragon (1)
1 UR Landstill (4)
1 Goblin Sligh (5)
1 MUD (6)
1 SuperGro (7)
1 Vengeur Masque (7)
10 control (5 Hulk Smash, 2 Keeper, 2 IsoKeeper, 1 UR Landstill)
9 combo (5 Rector, 2 TPS, 2 Dragon)
8 aggro (3 Madness, 2 TnT, 2 Stacker, 1 Goblin Sligh)
6 prison (3 Stax, 2 Slavery, 1 MUD)
4 aggro-combo (2 Gobvantage, 1 MadDragon, 1 Vengeur Masque)
3 aggro-control (2 Iso-GAT, 1 SuperGro)
Lessons From the February Results
1) Rector And Dragon Occupy The Same Combo Niche
One of the nice things about January was that it had next to no combo. So naturally, February brought a resurgence of the graveyard combo decks as soon as the level of hate waned just slightly. The similarities between Rector and Dragon are many, though they are still very different decks. Each needs to get an enabling creature into the graveyard, and then if an effect resolves (triggered ability for Rector, animation enchantment for Dragon) the deck either goes infinite (Dragon) or does the practical equivalent (Yawgmoth’s Bargain).
Dragon has many more opportunities to be disrupted than Rector, since it not only goes through the process of removing all its permanents multiple times, but has two different permanent types that can be destroyed to end or forestall the loop. And when the loop is broken by someone who understands the stack, it ends in the Dragon player’s entire board disappearing. Rector’s counterbalancing weakness is a much smaller number of ways to start the loop, a defect that it addresses through a mass of traditional combo Draw-7s. Also, because Academy Rector is hardcast before being sacrificed, while Worldgorger Dragon imposes no such burden, the Rector deck holds much more mana, particularly from Dark Rituals.
Another way to examine their similarities is to look at the cards they both fear: Stifle, Swords to Plowshares, Coffin Purge, Tormod’s Crypt. This clarifies that they’re actually very similar decks in principle, even though they approach their problems differently.
2) Hulk Smash is good-like-Family-Guy good
Steve Menendian just told us why Tog is amazing (so amazing we don’t even notice the other cards which might theoretically be receiving a reference from”Tog”), and so it is. It barely edged out Rector on tiebreakers for the top spot in the results, but is so obviously more resilient to hate that it can be safely labeled”the best deck.” The versions that succeeded this month bear out the theory that Hulk doesn’t want mana disruption, as only two of them had a lone Strip Mine each.
Also, there is no clear answer to the question of using Red, as three did and two didn’t. This is likely to be a metagame factor like so many things, since both BUG builds were in the same Top 8, and two BUGR versions were in the same tournament, with no coincidence of the two types.
3) Aggro-combo has strong potential
Previously I’ve classified Mask decks as aggro and Gobvantage decks as combo, but the MadDragon deck that won Dulmen (tossing together the power of Madness with a surprise combo kill from Worldgorger Dragon) finally convinced me to add a distinct category for the borderline decks. It remains to be seen if this was simply a win for the element of surprise or if MadDragon has enduring merit for its hybrid strategy.
The recent Food Chain Goblins primer by Joshua Silvestri a.k.a. Vegeta2711 on The Mana Drain highlights the growing prominence of this deck category, and its clearest exemplar, the Goblin Recruiter/Goblin Ringleader combo. (For those not in the know, once Recruiter sets up a series of Ringleaders and other appropriate Goblins, Food Chain lets you cast them serially until you’re left with a hasted squad of lethal Piledrivers.)
So far, the tournament success of the archetype has been from non-Food Chain variants, but many players think the Food Chains are an improvement. Without the Chain, I noticed that both Gobvantage decks this month only used one Ringleader, and my read on this (as someone who has never played this version) is that it’s just too hard to get the mana for more than that. Particularly in light of its decent chances against Hulk, Goblins should stay on the radar for quite a while.
Mask decks continued to hover at the lower bound of performance, and Vengeur is still the only type to display results, while the mono-Black Spoils Mask deck introduced by Steve Menendian hasn’t appeared. The abundance of artifact removal is still holding these decks down.
4) Prison Is Better With Blue
Just like with everything else, adding Blue makes Prison decks do better, as demonstrated by Stax and Slavery far outperforming MUD. I directly relate this to the inconsistent draws Prison decks are notorious for: a problem ameliorated by Blue card drawing. Slavery builds in particular illustrate this with their use of Thirst For Knowledge and”Draw-7’s” to quickly accumulate the best lock components from the deck. (Control Slavery replaces Draw-7s with Brainstorm.)
5) Wasteland has Waned
With a mere 39 Wastelands this month (January had 82 in the same number of tournaments), it’s worth pointing out why such an important card isn’t seeing the same heights of play as before. First, neither Rector nor Hulk ran it. That’s a quarter of the field winning without taking the mana denial route, just between those two. Of the six categories of decks I delineate above, only Prison consistently employs the card (I anticipate Hulk will drift into a new combo-control category over the next months for this reason: if it’s too fast to need Wastelands, it’s not very controlling). The declining presence of super-broken Bazaar decks also discouraged Wastelands from meeting their most important targets. Decks with Workshops can be beaten without attacking their land, but an unchecked Bazaar of Baghdad is”game over, man, game over.”
6) No Restriction Material In Sight
Of the various cards that have been submitted for potential restriction in the past, none was present in more than a third of the metagame, and certainly none has displayed a dominating danger.
44 Mana Drain
37 Cunning Wish
33 Chalice of the Void
32 Mishra’s Workshop
28 Dark Ritual
20 Bazaar of Baghdad
19 Psychatog
18 Academy Rector
17 Yawgmoth’s Will*
16 Intuition
4 Illusionary Mask
0 Spoils of the Vault
* Restricted, but suggested for Banning.
In terms of the most high-risk cards on this unofficial watch list, Dark Ritual did considerably better than in January, but both Workshop and Bazaar were less prominent.
And now for more exciting data, the complete tally of cards in the thirty-seven available decklists.
Total Card Appearances (missing 1 Dragon, 1 Iso-GAT, 1 TnT)
30 Island
29 Mountain
9 Forest
3 Swamp
2 Plains
34 Mox Sapphire
32 Black Lotus
32 Mox Ruby
30 Ancestral Recall
30 Mox Emerald
29 Mox Jet
28 Mox Pearl
27 Sol Ring
26 Time Walk
19 Demonic Tutor
19 Strip Mine
18 Vampiric Tutor
17 Mystical Tutor
17 Yawgmoth’s Will
16 Tolarian Academy
16 Mana Crypt
15 Library of Alexandria
14 Mana Vault
11 Memory Jar
10 Lotus Petal
9 Balance
9 Timetwister
8 Tinker
7 Fact or Fiction
7 Mind Twist
7 Wheel of Fortune
7 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
6 Necropotence
5 Enlightened Tutor
5 Gush
3 Burning Wish
3 Frantic Search
3 Grim Monolith
3 Mind’s Desire
3 Regrowth
3 Windfall
1 Braingeyser
1 Crop Rotation
1 Fastbond
1 Fork
1 Lion’s Eye Diamond
1 Mox Diamond
1 Stroke of Genius
104 Force of Will – Highest Blue card
71 Brainstorm
63 Underground Sea
62 Volcanic Island
61 Polluted Delta
60 Red Elemental Blast – Highest Red card
49 Tormod’s Crypt – Highest artifact
44 Mana Drain
42 Tropical Island
40 Accumulated Knowledge
39 Wasteland
37 Cunning Wish
37 Fire / Ice – Highest Gold card
35 Duress – Highest Black card
33 Chalice of the Void
32 Mishra’s Workshop
31 Stifle
30 Flooded Strand
28 Dark Ritual
28 Goblin Welder
28 Wooded Foothills
23 Gemstone Mine
23 Rack and Ruin
23 Tangle Wire
22 Blue Elemental Blast
22 Naturalize – Highest Green card; compare to 9 Seal of Cleansing, 8 Disenchant
20 Bazaar of Baghdad
20 Pernicious Deed
20 Smokestack
19 Cabal Therapy
19 Psychatog
18 Academy Rector – Highest White card
18 Deep Analysis
18 Squee, Goblin Nabob
18 Taiga
17 Blood Moon
17 Coffin Purge
17 Thirst for Knowledge
16 Basking Rootwalla
16 Intuition
16 Misdirection
16 Mishra’s Factory
16 Sphere of Resistance
16 Wild Mongrel
15 Lightning Bolt
14 Gorilla Shaman
14 Juggernaut
12 Goblin Lackey
12 Goblin Piledriver
12 Metalworker
12 Survival of the Fittest
12 Tendrils of Agony
11 Artifact Mutation
11 Chain of Vapor
11 Hurkyl’s Recall
11 Pyroblast
11 Swords to Plowshares
10 Careful Study
10 City of Brass
10 Pyrostatic Pillar
10 Scrubland[/author]“][author name="Scrubland"]Scrubland[/author]
10 Triskelion
10 Tundra
9 Bloodstained Mire
9 Goblin Warchief
9 Isochron Scepter
9 Rebuild
9 Roar of the Wurm
9 Seal of Cleansing
9 Shivan Reef
8 Anger
8 Arrogant Worm
8 Berserk
8 Chain Lightning
8 Circular Logic
8 City of Traitors
8 Disenchant
8 Grim Lavamancer
8 Hydroblast
7 Ancient Tomb
7 Annul
7 Barbarian Ring
7 Future Sight
7 Ground Seal
7 Powder Keg
7 Siege-Gang Commander
7 Skirk Prospector
7 Worldgorger Dragon
6 Animate Dead
6 Back to Basics
6 Bayou
6 Defense Grid
6 Energy Flux
6 Grafted Skullcap
6 Karn, Silver Golem
6 Merchant Scroll
6 Mindslaver
6 Null Brooch
6 Platinum Angel
5 Decree of Justice
5 Goblin Recruiter
5 Masticore
5 Maze of Ith
5 Orim’s Chant
5 Quirion Dryad
5 Windswept Heath
5 Wonder
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Carpet of Flowers
4 Damping Matrix
4 Ensnaring Bridge
4 Faerie Conclave
4 Fiery Temper
4 Flametongue Kavu
4 Goblin Goon
4 Grid Monitor
4 Illusionary Mask
4 Illusions of Grandeur
4 Lim-Dul’s Vault
4 Meditate
4 Meltdown
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Nevinyrral’s Disk
4 Null Rod
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Price of Progress
4 Seat of the Synod
4 Sphere of Law
4 Standstill
4 Su-Chi
4 The Abyss
4 Volrath’s Shapeshifter
4 Winter Orb
4 Xantid Swarm
3 Bottle Gnomes
3 Chill
3 Daze
3 Diabolic Edict
3 Donate
3 Gilded Lotus
3 Goblin Grenade
3 Goblin Matron
3 Goblin Vandal
3 Hidden Gibbons
3 Meddling Mage
3 Mind’s Eye
3 Necromancy
3 Oath of Druids
3 Petrified Field
3 Price of Glory
3 Skeletal Scrying
3 Sleight of Hand
3 Vendetta
3 Verdant Force
3 Wall of Roots
3 Werebear
2 Ambassador Laquatus
2 Arc Lightning
2 Compulsion
2 Crumble
2 Dance of the Dead
2 Fireblast
2 Goblin Ringleader
2 Heroes’ Reunion
2 Hibernation
2 Impulse
2 Jester’s Cap
2 Lightning Greaves
2 Mystic Enforcer
2 Overload
2 Pentavus
2 Phyrexian Furnace
2 Pulverize
2 Quirion Ranger
2 Read the Runes
2 Rushing River
2 Smother
2 Solemn Simulacrum
2 Uktabi Orangutan
2 Viashino Heretic
2 Violent Eruption
2 Viridian Shaman
1 Arcane Denial
1 Aura Fracture
1 Badlands
1 Bosh, Iron Golem
1 Brain Freeze
1 Caller of the Claw – Official WTF-of-the-Month
1 Circle of Protection: Red
1 Dismantling Blow
1 Duplicant
1 Dust Bowl
1 Elf Replica
1 Elvish Lyrist
1 Form of the Dragon
1 Genesis
1 Ghastly Demise
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Goblin Tinkerer
1 Holistic Wisdom
1 Krosan Reclamation
1 Morphling
1 Phage the Untouchable
1 Plaguebearer
1 Plateau – It’s official, Savannah is the worst dual land. All the others were played.
1 Power Artifact
1 Ray of Revelation
1 Renounce
1 Sculpting Steel
1 Seedtime
1 Shattering Pulse
1 Shivan Hellkite
1 Sliver Queen
1 Zuran Orb
Special recognition should go to the people who tolerate my badgering for decklists and attendance totals. (I’ve made an amazing pest of myself.) Especially Womprax, the morphling.de slave.
Philip Stanton
a.k.a.”Dr. Sylvan”
prstanto at uiuc.edu