As I said in part one of my set review, Fate
Reforged might the hardest set I’ve ever had to evaluate.
The major returning mechanic, delve, fooled us in Khans of Tarkir with good cards that looked mediocre (Dig Through Time) and mediocre cards that looked
good (Necropolis Fiend). One of the major new mechanics, manifest, is likely to be either significantly better or worse than we all think it is right now.
There are five mythics and five rares each with an odd hybrid ability that is powerful but very situational. Finally, there are quite a few cards in Fate
Reforged that are similar to well-known staples from the past, but which are different in subtle and significant ways.
Because of all this, Fate Reforged feels like a set bursting with financial opportunity. I wouldn’t be surprised if several of the set’s chase mythics turn
out to be compete busts, nor would I raise an eyebrow at a few of the $1 rares hitting $5-$8 at some point. As always, your best bet is to stay on the
bleeding edge of coverage and keep up with the latest news on social media. If you see a sleeper like Wildcall or Mastery of the Unseen start showing up in
4-0 decks on Magic Online, buy in fast and go for the quick flip. There should be at least a few opportunities like that over the next month or two with
Fate Reforged cards.
Until then, I recommend following normal new set protocol and trading away Fate Reforged chase rares as quickly as you can. Most brand new Magic cards are
never more valuable than they are at the prerelease, so if you’re a stats-oriented thinker like me you’ll play the odds and trade your Ugins and Wardens
for Siege Rhinos and Ravnica shocks as soon as you can.
Overall, I am bullish on manifest and B/W Warriors and bearish on the dragons. I think most competitive players are underrating manifest, and I expect that
the threat of unveiling some sweet creature at instant speed will matter more often than people realize right now. I also think that B/W Warriors will get
enough support to make the leap from Limited to Standard. As for the cycle of rare dragons, I don’t think any of them will see competitive play beyond the
smallest of corner cases. If you don’t like manifest or warriors as much as I do or you think WotC will print some sort of Standard dragon enabler, you
should adjust your reaction to my reviews accordingly.
Let’s get into it, then, shall we?
Monastery Mentor – $30
Everyone knows how good Young Pyromancer is, so Monastery Mentor is probably a tier one staple that we’re all going to be sick of playing against by the
time it rotates out of Standard. Since the card is already sold out (as of this writing) at $30 though, I feel like my job as a finance writer is to try
and lay out a rational argument detailing why it might be overrated. If Monastery Mentor isn’t as good as it appears to be, one of the following things is
probably true:
· Red (Young Pyromancer color) is significantly better than white for abusing this ability.
· The CMC hike from two to three is too much for the card to overcome.
Other than that, Monastery Mentor is all upside over Young Pyromancer. The extra point of toughness, the prowess, the fact that the tokens have
prowess-that’s all gravy. I’m going to mostly ignore that stuff here because even if the card is just as good as Young Pyromancer was, it’ll see enough
play to maintain its status as the most valuable card in the set.
Let’s talk about color first. In Eternal play, where Young Pyromancer shines right now, blue would be the best color for a card like this with red
following closely behind. White would probably be a distant fourth after black in Legacy, though I could see a Modern deck running a Jeskai manabase in
order to take advantage of Delver, Gitaxian Probe, and Lightning Helix in addition to Monastery Mentor. Color is a downside, certainly, but it’s probably
not a deal-breaker in the newer formats.
CMC is a much bigger deal, and I expect that the extra colorless in the cost of Monastery Mentor will prevent this card from becoming a Vintage and Legacy
staple. Monastery Mentor might be able to make a case for itself in those formats if Young Pyromancer didn’t already exist, but I doubt people will pay the
extra mana and add a third color just for Pyromancers 5-8. It might be good enough in Modern, but that’s as far back as I can see this card’s influence
reaching.
In Standard, Monastery Mentor doesn’t have actual Young Pyromancer to compete against. Instead, its biggest competition will probably be other aggressive
three-drops like Goblin Rabblemaster and Alesha, Who Smiles at Death. Monastery Mentor requires more effort than Goblin Rabblemaster and makes for a worse
lategame top deck, but it’s significantly better on a crowded board, and its upside is quite a bit higher.
Anyone expecting Monastery Mentor to shake up every form of Constructed Magic like Young Pyromancer did is likely to be disappointed, but I still expect it
to be a tier one Standard card and a tier two Modern card. I’m not buying in at $30 regardless-very few cards can maintain that price tag for long, and
there’s still a small chance we’re all completely wrong about this guy-but if I had to pick the card that will be the most valuable Fate Reforged mythic in
six months, it’d be Monastery Mentor.
Warden of the First Tree – $10
My immediate reaction to Warden of the First Tree was, “Oh, hey, look! It’s Figure of Destiny! I want nine of these!” Figure has always been one of my
favorite cards, and when I sold most of my collection around Shards of Alara, I made sure to keep my well-worn set of Eventide Figures.
I also don’t want to be the goober who underestimates a 1-CMC mythic rare. The only other 1-CMC mythic that’s ever been printed was Dragonmaster Outcast,
and Warden seems way better at first glance. If this card sees half as much play as Figure of Destiny did back in the day, we’d be looking at a $25 price
tag easily. Since the pre-order price of Warden is just $10, you’d be stupid not to buy in, right?
I’m not so sure. First of all, Warden of the First Tree costs G to play. Notice anything about its text box? That’s right-no green mana symbols anywhere.
If you want to curve out with Warden, you’re going to have to be running enough green to consistently turn 1 this and enough white and/or black to hit the
abilities when needed. That’s not an easy manabase to assemble.
Beyond that, the overall mana requirements and benefits are significantly less powerful this time around. Figure was great because you could level him up
while still bolting something or playing another one-drop on turn 2. This guy gets bigger faster-he attacks for three on turn 2, which is very much a
relevant thing-but the cost is higher.
The midgame difference is even worse. Figure of Destiny allows you to make it a 4/4 on turn 3, while Warden of the First Tree requires you to drop four
mana into it for no immediate benefit. At this point, you’ve sunk seven very valuable early turn mana into a 3/3 with trample and lifelink that can be
blocked or bolted with impunity. Figure only cost you five mana to get to the same point, remember, and if you didn’t get bolted in response to the
activation of its second ability, you got a much more resilient creature out of the deal.
It’s true that Warden of the First Tree’s third ability is more powerful since it can be activated more than once, but if you’re swinging in with a giant
thing that isn’t dying, you’re probably winning the game regardless.
Warden of the First Tree actually reminds me less of Figure of Destiny and more of Student of Warfare. That guy also had exacting mana requirements (albeit
in a different way), and he also came out on turn 1 and attacked for three on turn 2 before requiring a ton of mana to become lategame relevant. Student of
Warfare was a solid playable in its day, but it wasn’t a format-defining powerhouse like Figure of Destiny was.
In the end, I think of Warden of the First Tree less as a Figure of Destiny and more as a complement to Fleecemane Lion. Playing this as an aggressive
creature that can attack for three on turn 2 makes a lot of sense, and there will be times when either the lifelink or the chance to go huge with this will
be incredibly relevant. Warden of the First Tree will likely see some competitive play, but if you’re expecting this to play out the same way Figure did, I
think you’ll be disappointed. I’m holding off on the $10 pre-order price, because I think it’ll drop once people realize it isn’t as good as they think it
is. There should be a nice little trough where buying in is possible, and if you’re an Abzan Aggro player that’s when I’d grab a personal set.
Brutal Hordechief – $10
Just to get the immediate comparison out of the way, I don’t think that Brutal Hordechief will be as good as Hellrider was. Not only did Hellrider have
haste, but its damage could be redirected to pick off planeswalkers. Both of those things made the card a huge and immediate threat, while Brutal
Hordechief is going to have to stick around for a turn before doing its thing.
That said, I believe that Brutal Hordechief will make an impact in Standard. A five-point life swing on an empty board isn’t nothing, and this guy plays
well with existing powerhouse cards like Hordeling Outburst. The fact that this is a warrior is relevant as well, and I expect any iteration of Standard
B/W Warriors to run at least two or three of these at the top of the curve. Brutal Hordechief’s activated ability might not matter in two out of every
three games, but when it is good it should be absolutely excellent.
If Brutal Hordechief’s play is limited to the top of the curve in one deck, it should settle closer to $6 than $10. If it ends up as a four-of in multiple
builds, we’re taking about a $15 card. I’m not a buyer at $10 regardless, though it’s very possible that this will be one of the mythics in the set that
holds it value the best after the pre-order period ends.
Shaman of the Great Hunt goldfishes very well, but I’m not convinced it’ll do what you want against an actual opponent. The haste is excellent, but a 4/2
can be blocked and killed by almost anything. You still get +1/+1 tokens on whatever does make it through though, so most of the time Shaman of the Great
Hunt will do something even in death.
Is that enough? I’m not sure yet. A 4/2 with haste that can take over a game by itself and absolutely has to be blocked is no slouch, but I feel like there
will be more synergistic options than this available to you most of the time. Shaman of the Great Hunt passes the ‘powerful in a vacuum’ test with flying
colors, but at $8 I want to know for certain that this card will see play, and I can’t say for sure at this point. I’m staying away.
Flamewake Phoenix – $5
If you’re looking for another home for Brutal Hordechief besides B/W Warriors, perhaps Flamewake Phoenix is the answer? The ferocious on this is going to
be harder to trigger than the ability on Chandra’s Phoenix, but the payoff is greater-instead of merely getting the card back to your hand, you just have
to pay a single R and you’ve got your Flamewake Phoenix back in play and attacking. This card is tailor-made for G/R Monsters, and that’s an archetype that
has been very solid for quite some time now. There’s very little upside in buying in at $5-the ceiling for this card is probably in the $8 range-but I
would be absolutely gobsmacked if this card doesn’t make some sort of impact.
Like many cards in Fate Reforged, Tasigur, the Golden Fang is quite good. His mana cost is aggressively priced, and he’ll be coming down for two or three
mana most of the time. Of course, Tasigur’s ability has to be relevant if he’s going to see play in Standard-Hooting Mandrills isn’t a format staple, after
all, and the extra point of toughness isn’t enough to swing the balance by itself.
On the whole, I think Tasigur’s ability does enough to bump him over the edge into playability. The fact that he can be activated at instant speed is
great, and he can take over the game by himself in a board stall. The self-mill aspect keeps the gas flowing, but it also prevents you from delving away
all the crap from your graveyard and setting up the exact spell return you’re hoping for. Tasigur can’t be counted on as a combo piece, but he’s still a
reliable card draw engine.
I’ve seen a lot of hyperbole on both sides with this guy (one Reddit post claims he rivals Tarmogoyf in power level, another claims he’s a bulk rare), but
I’m a Tasigur moderate. I expect him to show up as a two-of or three-of in some B/G Whip of Erebos/midrange builds and stay in the $2-$4 range. It’s okay
to buy a few personal copies at $3, but he’s not a great spec target if you’re expecting huge gains.
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death – $3
Alesha, Who Wandered in From Kamigawa is quite powerful, though she’s hurt but the glut of excellent options at the three-drop slot these days. You’re
probably going to want to run this in a deck where the ‘tapped and attacking’ clause is a benefit instead of a drawback, though I’d be remiss if I didn’t
at least mention that Alesha can bring back a Hornet Queen all by herself. A 3/2 with first strike for 2R isn’t heinously below curve, so the fact that she
can bring back random Seekers of the Way and Goblin Rabblemasters should be enough to at least warrant consideration in the current Boros and Jeskai
builds. There also might be some sort of neat Modern Reanimator combo with this that I’m not seeing yet.
I’d also like to take another moment to plug Tiny Leaders, a new Legacy-ish Commander variant with 50-card
highlander decks with no card above a CMC of three. Alesha sure seems tailor-made for Tiny Leaders, doesn’t she?
Alesha has the power to be a strong $5-$8 card, but if she doesn’t see much play, she’ll likely end up stagnating around $1.50-$2. She’s a pretty decent
gamble at $3 though, and I’ll be looking to buy in cheap if early returns aren’t promising. Alesha is one of those cards that might drop off early before
finding a home and spiking down the line.
Mardu Strike Leader – $2
My first instinct was to compare this to Goblin Rabblemaster, but they’re very different cards. Rabblemaster can come down in a pre-combat main phase and
make an attacking Goblin right away, giving you three creatures to attack with the following turn. With Mardu Strike Leader, you’re either dashing this to
try and slam in some pressure or you’re dropping it and hoping it’ll survive to attack the following turn.
If Warrior tribal becomes a viable Constructed deck like I expect it will though, Mardu Strike Leader will be a part of it. Once you’ve got Chief of the
Edge and/or Raiders’ Spoils in play, this guy is capable of doing a ton of damage out of nowhere. I’m not a buyer at $2 because this is likely to drop to
bulk fairly quickly if Warriors doesn’t come together right away, but the potential for this to be a $3-$4 format staple is certainly there.
Torrent Elemental – $2
Misthollow Griffin never did much, and I doubt Torrent Elemental will break this ability wide open. Torrent Elemental is obviously good at attacking in
Limited, but no one’s paying five mana for a 3/5 flier with this ability in any Constructed format, weird exile clause or not. If tapping your opponent’s
board during your combat phase was worth this much, after all, Icy Blast would see more play. Future bulk mythic.
Ghastly Conscription – $2
Ghastly Conscription feels like a ‘slip through the cracks’ card to me. At 5B, it might have been fringe playable in Standard as a weird sort of finisher.
At 7BB you have Rise of the Dark Realms, a far superior Commander finisher. This card exists somewhere in between, and I don’t think it’s going to catch on
in either competitive or casual environments. Some Commander decks might want it as a fourth or fifth choice mass reanimation spell, but that won’t keep it
from being a bulk mythic.
Monastery Siege – $2
If Monastery Siege had been printed during Mirrodin or Champions of Kamigawa, Commander playability would have pushed it to $5-$6 by now. The ‘Dragons’
mode on this card is excellent for turtling down and sending random kill spells in another direction, and the ‘Khans’ mode is the perfect way to smooth out
an otherwise poor draw. Despite Monastery Siege being a solid casual card though, I’d be shocked if it doesn’t drop to $1 or even $0.50 and stay there for
quite some time. With the print runs being as large as they are these days, cards like this rarely have a shot to climb above bulk for years after they’re
printed.
Dromoka the Eternal – $1.50
There was a time when a 5/5 flier for five mana with a relevant ability would have been unthinkably good. That time is not 2015. If you’re attacking with
enough dragons to make the bolster ability on this good, you’re already winning. This card isn’t even in a color combination that casual dragon players are
going to want to run. Future bulk rare.
Silumgar, the Drifting Death – $1.50
No way we could get this one at five mana, huh? Silumgar, the Drifting Death is incredibly hard to kill, and with all the sweet 1/1 tokens running around
these days, I wouldn’t be surprised if U/B Control jams a couple of these in its sideboard now and again. It doesn’t kill very quickly though, and U/B
isn’t going to have much acceleration or any other competitive dragons to play with this. Even if Silumgar fulfills its marginal upside, I can’t see the
price going too far above $2. More likely, this will drop to bulk and stay there.
Atarka, World Render – $1
In competitive play, creatures at the top end of ramp decks generally need to do more than attack for a lot the turn after they’re summoned. If someone is
able to build a really good dragon ramp deck that can use Atarka as a combination finisher/alpha strike enabler, Atarka card will see play, but not in
great enough quantities to keep it out of the $1-$2 range. Casual demand should keep this dragon out of bulk for the long haul, but you should have the
chance to pick up a copy in the $0.50 range at some point.
Muck like Atarka, Ojutai comes close to winning you the game if you get it into play and can immediately hit your opponent with a bunch of dragons. Of
course, if you can do that, the game is already well at hand. Frost Titan didn’t see much play the last time he was in Standard, and Ojutai is much worse
unless you’ve already got a bunch of other dragons around. He isn’t in the popular casual dragon colors either. Future bulk rare.
Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest – $1
The upside on Shu Yun is tantalizing. If I attack into your four-toughness blocker with Shu Yun, you’re open to a heck of a blowout if you block. And if
you don’t? Hope you’re okay taking eight damage this turn. Things get even crazier if you attack with multiple creatures alongside Shu Yun, especially if
your opponent is at a low life total. They have to play around the double strike coming from anywhere, and you’ll be able to force them into some pretty
awkward blocks.
Blue isn’t generally the base color in an aggro deck, and there’s a heck of a lot of competition at the three-drop slot. Even Mantis Rider isn’t seeing
much play these days. If Shu Yun were $3, I’d be telling you to stay away. At $1, there’s some real potential here. Worst case, I wouldn’t be surprised if
he ends up in W/U Heroic. I’m a (cautious) believer.
Wildcall – $1
Wildcall isn’t quite Green Sun’s Zenith, but it does a passable enough imitation in Standard that I’m willing to bite at $1. Worst case, you’re paying X
mana for an X/X creature – not great, but certainly not awful in a ramp deck that wants the versatility to play speedbumps early and threats late. Will the
2/2 be able to manifest itself into something great often enough to make this a staple? I’m not sure yet, but with even a little bit of library
manipulation this card becomes fantastic. I’m betting it’ll find a home as a four-of somewhere.
Is it just me, or is this card fantastic in a control shell? Paying four mana for a 2/2 token isn’t amazing, but the fact that it can be done at instant
speed helps, and it’s quite possible that we’re completely underrating how good manifest is. These tokens have to be respected more than an average 2/2,
remember, even in a mostly creature-free deck.
If you do run this in a deck with a decent number of creatures, the lifegain ability here is more than incidental. Gaining five or six life a pop is more
than enough to re-buy the tempo you’ve lost by playing with a slow card like this, and at some point, the card advantage you’re generating should be enough
to take over the game. At just $1 per copy, this is a near-bulk gamble I really like.
Citadel Siege – $1
Citadel Siege reminds me of the time I pre-ordered several dozen copies of Martial Law at fifty cents each the week before Return to Ravnica dropped. This
card is better and more versatile, but I don’t think the current Standard environment is any more amenable to an effect like this. That might change if we
end up with Eldrazi in the spring set, but for now I’d expect this to drop toward bulk fairly quickly.
Crucible of the Spirit Dragon – $1
How cool would it have been had this card just tapped for two mana of any color that could be used to cast dragon spells? In that world, I could imagine a
five-color dragon deck actually becoming a thing in Standard, and you’d better believe I’d have tried to make it work for the next few months.
As it stands, I can’t imagine Crucible of the Spirit Dragon seeing any competitive play. That may change if the next set brings some kind of absurd dragon,
but I can’t see any of the Fate Reforged crew being good enough to warrant this. On the causal side, I’ve found that many players actively dislike the
storage lands for one reason or another, so I can’t see this being more than a bulk rare going forward.
Supplant Form – $1
Supplant Form is good in Commander, often setting an opponent back a full turn while netting a token in the deal. It isn’t going to end up in all of my
blue decks, but I’ve got a home for it in a few of them. Future bulk rare, but the foils should trade well.
Rally the Ancestors – $1
I’m sure someone is already working to break this in Modern, where you can use it to bring back Goblin Guide, Goblin Bushwhacker, Hellspark Elemental, etc.
as a nice little Boros finisher. I can’t see anything like that happening in Standard though, so supply will assuredly outpace demand here. Future bulk
rare.
Daghatar the Adamant – $0.75
I wish I could say that I was a Giant Fan of Daghatar the Adamant, but I’d rather give Daghatar a pass and listen to some Adam Ant. Seriously, have you
heard Goody Two Shoes? It’s awesome.
A 4/4 for for isn’t terrible-in green, it’ll buy you a Wildcall-but vigilance isn’t a great Constructed ability, and the counter moving thing is
excruciatingly slow. It’s cute that you can snag counters off your opponents’ stuff, but do you really want to spend three mana for that on most boards?
This is even slow in all but the +1/+1 counteriest decks in Commander. Future bulk rare.
Mob Rule – $0.50
Red isn’t a popular Commander color, but it does have one thing going for it: Insurrection, one of the format’s most powerful game-ending spells. Mob Rule
isn’t on that level, but it’s quite possibly a format staple regardless. I’m certainly going to run it in every R/B or Jund deck that can take advantage of
sac outlets, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it wins some decently large number of games that it is cast in.
Mob Rule is almost certainly not good enough for Standard, but there have been some environments in the past where this would have been a decent trump out
of the sideboard. Best case, we might see this show up in a surprise deck at a GP. Bulk rare, but snag foils for Commander.
-
Arcbond
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare -
Sandsteppe Mastodon
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare -
Scroll of the Masters
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare
This Week’s Trends
– The winter bear market for Standard cards is over. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant, Whip of Erebos, Hero of Iroas, Hornet Queen, Soul of Theros, Siege Rhino,
Anafenza the Foremost, Jeskai Ascendancy, Doomwake Giant, and most of the Theros block Temples are up. Many of the M15 casual spec targets-Urborg, Tomb of
Yawgmoth, Sliver Hivelord, etc.-have bottomed out and started to rise again as well. If 2015 is similar to the past few years, expect cards in all formats
to trend upwards over the next 3-4 months before dropping off again.
– Don’t forget that Duel Decks: Elspeth vs. Kiora is due out next month. If you have copies of either card that you aren’t using right now, trade them away
ASAP.
– Hooded Hydra is up to $2.75 on the back of manifest speculation. If either Whisperwood Elemental or Wildcall become a thing, chances are Hooded Hydra
will be getting in on the fun. There’s $5 upside here if you’re a believer. Speaking of manifest though, what about Master of Pearls? If you’re looking for
a sleeper spec at bulk rare prices, I think this is the one.
– If you think B/W Warriors is going to become a competitive deck in Standard, you might want to consider grabbing a set of Bloodsoaked Champion and
possibly a couple copies of Athreos, God of Passage. Both cards are up slightly on this speculation, as is Caves of Koilos. I like all three as low-risk
buys.
– Gilt-Leaf Archdruid has roughly doubled in price to $3.35, mostly because it has been discussed a bit on Reddit as a neat little casual spec. It’s a
unique card from an older set that isn’t likely to be reprinted anytime soon, but the lack of real demand should keep it at or below $5.
– With so many new multicolored dragons showing up in Fate Reforged, it might be time to start buying older casual dragons on spec. Scion of the Ur-Dragon
is the best (only) five-color Dragon commander-it’s sold out at $2.25 and rising quickly. Beyond that, the usual suspects (Utvara Hellkite, Hellkite
Tyrant, Kaalia) are likely to see small bumps.
– Ancestral Visions and Bloodbraid Elf are starting to climb a little on speculation that they’ll be unbanned in Modern. I expect we’ll see Treasure Cruise
go, but I doubt we’ll see either card come back. Stay away.
– I know that some of you are fans of my personal writing, so I’d like to take a moment and suggest that you head over to my personal blog- MyBrainIsAJerk.com-and read my latest story. It’s about the time I spent a full year working for people who were
trying to make a TV drama about a talking fly, and if you want to get a sense of how utterly bizarre the television industry can be, check it out. I’d also
like to encourage you to follow my blog on Facebook, where you’ll never miss a post.