The first thing I tend to do when analyzing a new set is to lump each card into one of three categories:
- Obvious format staples
- Time will tell!
- Obvious unplayables
Cards in the first bracket tend to start high-generally in the $15-$30 range-because they have the allure of necessity driving the price up. Most of the
time, cards in this category drop as supply increases. Once in a while, however, you end up with a Voice of Resurgence or Mutavault situation where the
initial hype underestimates how good the card ends up being in the metagame. This is also the category where the most high profile spec busts reside
though-think Temporal Mastery, Time Reversal, and Aurelia’s Fury. If a card starts at $10 or higher and I’m not certain that it will see play in a top
deck, I can’t ever recommend it as a strong buy.
99% of cards in the ‘unplayable’ bracket never amount to anything, but this is also the place where real sleepers lie in wait. With a pre-order price of
just fifty cents, Hellrider, Spellskite, Jeskai Ascendancy, and Wolfir SIlverheart began their life here. Of course, their signal was buried in the noise
of five thousand bulk rares that have never amounted to anything. These specs can pay off big, but they’re often a great way to lose your money two or
three dollars at a time.
Cards in the middle bracket are where most people do their pre-order speculating. This bracket contains cards like Pain Seer, Hammer of Purphoros, Mantis
Rider, Wingmate Roc, and Narset, Enlightened Master that seem like they could either be fantastic or unplayable depending on how things play out.
Sometimes, all it takes is actually playtesting a game or two with a confusing card in order to see what its true power level looks like. Other times, the
metagame needs to break in a certain way for a card to succeed.
These middle bracket cards are sexy buys because four or five of them emerge from every single set as powerhouse rares or mythics. Problem is, their
downside is much greater than cards from the first category. If you pre-ordered your set of Wooded Foothills for $25 each, you still got value out of them.
If you pre-ordered Surrak Dragonclaw at $15 instead, you probably watched your investment go straight to zero.
So far, Fate Reforged seems to have a higher than average number of these middle bracket rares. Part of that is due to the set’s complexity, which is
higher than average. Several of the set’s mechanics, delve and manifest, are also quite difficult to analyze in a vacuum. There are also a lot of
conditional cards in the set; Magical Christmasland rares that are fantastic when deployed under optimal conditions but mediocre without the right support.
Some of these cards will hit in Standard, and a few of them might hit big. Most of them will be forgotten though.
The last set where pre-ordering large quantities was a true home run was Avacyn Restored. The best thing to do with Fate Reforged is read everything you
can about the set, follow along with the live streams of the first major tournaments of the new year, and pull the trigger when you have a sense how
impactful each card will be in the first days of Khans/Reforged Standard.
That said, there sure are some tempting specs in this set, aren’t there? Let’s start with the most exciting card I’ve seen in quite some time:
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon – $30
Two writers far more qualified than myself, Patrick Chapin and Ari Lax, have each written an entire article about Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.
While Chapin is a little more bullish, they both reach a similar conclusion-Ugin is powerful enough to see play in Standard, but his drawbacks will keep
him from becoming a powerhouse across all formats. While his –X ability is incredibly strong, it’s hard to wipe the board and then use Ugin himself to
establish control. Most of the time, Ugin will be used as an All is Dust that can occasionally stick around to ghostfire some stuff before getting killed.
Financially, there’s a little more to Ugin than that. From a flavor and marketing perspective, Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is the flagship card of the set, a
fact that has often led to a premium from the casual side of the player base. His crazy ultimate should appeal strongly to the kitchen table crowd as well.
The fact that Ugin is colorless matters a lot too-he’s worth considering as a one-of or two-of in virtually any control brew as well as in every Commander
deck. Add that to the fact that he’s a second set mythic and I doubt he’ll fall below $16-$18. I liked him a lot more at his initial pre-order price of
$25, but at $30 there’s very little upside left.
Does Ugin have a shot at being a $40 Eternal card like Karn Liberated? I doubt it. You can’t play him solely off a full Tron set like the seven-cmc All is
Dust or Karn, he doesn’t help whatsoever against Affinity, and his overall power level feels lower. Ugin is an obvious format staple in Standard, but if
you’re expecting to get years of Eternal play out of your purchase, you’d be best served looking elsewhere.
Soulfire Grand Master – $20
By herself, Soulfire Grand Master is a 2/2 with lifelink for two – that’s going to be worse than Seeker of the Way most of the time, but it’s certainly not
embarrassing or unplayable. If she were forced into a Jeskai tokens deck with only her base stats, she’d still help to win some amount of games.
Soulfire Grand Master’s second ability requires instants and sorceries that deal damage. In Standard, that means Lightning Strike, Jeskai Charm, Magma Jet,
and/or Stoke the Flames. In Modern, that could mean anything from Lightning Helix (gain six!) to Lightning Bolt. If left unchecked, Soulfire Grand Master
can gain you 8-10 life over a couple of turns without too much trouble. That’s not irrelevant in a racing situation. She does require you to play a certain
kind of (usually red) card, but it does not require you to warp your whole deck around her.
Soulfire Grand Master’s third ability is where things get kind of crazy. It requires you to have six or seven mana and a good cheap spell to work, which
probably means that you’ve got the game under control already. The fact that you get a finishing ability like that attached to a respectable creature is
what really counts though, and it’s certainly possible to build some kind of crazy looping Time Warp thing if you really want to.
Financially, I am a little nervous about recommending a Boros card. It wasn’t long ago that cards like Legion’s Initiative and Aurelia’s Fury were spoiler
season darlings that didn’t come close to paying off. And make no mistake, Soulfire Grand Master is a multicolored card-you aren’t running her in a generic
white deck, or really anything without a high number of burn spells. If you’re buying in at $20, that means you believe that she’s on the same power level
as Voice of Resurgence-a staple in multiple Standard decks as well as in Modern. I think it’s more likely she’ll be a four-of in just one very good
Standard deck, which should mean a price closer to $15. I’d give her a 25% chance of becoming a very valuable multi-format staple and a 25% chance of
busting entirely. Because of that, I recommend staying away for now even though she as the best chance of becoming a pantheon-level Eternal card of any
card I’ve seen so far in Fate Reforged.
Temporal Trespass – $6
One of the overarching messages in my Khans of Tarkir set review was that we were all probably undervaluing delve, and that it was possible for one or more
of the set’s delve cards to end up dominating Standard. Then I proceeded to recommend against buying Dig Through Time. So yeah, I may not be the best
person to evaluate Temporal Trespass.
That said, I have a hard time believing that this card will be good outside of Commander. Even if we assume that it will be easy to delve 8, three blue
mana is a lot-most games, it’s the rough equivalent of 2UU. That’s still a discount off the retail price of a Time Warp, but it’s certainly no Treasure
Cruise. Cards in your graveyard are a limited resource too, and if given the choice between an extra turn for UUU or three cards for U, the extra cards are
the better deal most of the time. Because of that, I have a hard time seeing this being played over Treasure Cruise in either Standard or Modern.
Can Temporal Trespass be played alongside Treasure Cruise and/or Dig Through Time? Perhaps, but it would require a dedicated delve deck. Sultai Reanimator
can get cards into the graveyard at a pretty fast rate, but that deck runs three colors of mana and the triple-blue on this is likely a shade too cute.
Temporal Trespass’ best hope might come if Treasure Cruise is banned in one or more Eternal formats and there’s less competition for the graveyard as a
delve resource. It’ll also be a nice Commander staple, which should keep the price at $4-$5 over the long haul. I don’t like this card at $6 retail, but I
doubt it’ll drop below $3 even if it doesn’t see much play simply because people love their Time Warps. Heck, even Temporal Mastery is back above $5 these
days.
Let’s talk a little bit about manifest. In green-based decks that are going to want to run something like Whisperwood Elemental, you’re going to get to
manifest an actual creature about a third of the time. The rest of the time, you’re getting a 2/2 that is never going to be more than that. There’s some
value in the uncertainty though-we’re used to playing with a set number of morphs in Draft, but in Constructed Magic you’re going to have to respect the
potential of any manifested card to be Siege Rhino or something. That makes blocking decisions very difficult for your opponent. Manifest can also act as
card advantage with non-creature permanents, because you can flip them over for their casting cost and they’ll simply stop being creatures but stay in
play.
Manifest is significantly better in casual and Eternal formats due to the increased amount of library manipulation. Cards like Sensei’s Divining Top and
Sylvan Library certainly play nicely with manifest, as do blink effects like Flickerwisp. You can manifest an Emrakul and flip it over with Ixidor, Reality
Sculptor for 2U or for free with Skirk Alarmist too.
It’s worth noting that enters-the-battlefield abilities don’t trigger when you flip over a manifested thing though. That’s bad if you were hoping to
manifest your Terastodon or something, but it breathes new life into forgotten cards like Phyrexian Dreadnought. There’s certainly some potential for a
Legacy deck here.
Whisperwood Elemental won’t be the manifest card to cross over into Eternal formats though-it’s a five-drop 4/4, and that’s rarely even good enough for
Standard. That said, don’t sleep on this guy. If he isn’t killed immediately, he’ll make a 2/2 at the end of your turn and another one each turn after
that. (And don’t forget – all of these 2/2s have significant upside.) Beyond that, you can sac this at any point to get at least a single 2/2 out of the
deal. Against a removal spell, you can get at least one manifested creature as well as the potential for a favorable combat step. Whisperwood Elemental is
both powerful and resilient, and it could easily see significant play in Standard with a price tag somewhere in the $6-$12 range.
Soulflayer – $3
Chromanticore, anyone? This guy is potentially a two-mana Baneslayer Angel, but in order to get there you have to build your deck almost entirely around
him. If you’re not running Chromanticore, you’re probably hoping to exile things like Pharika, God of Affliction, Hornet Queen, or even Sagu Mauler. That
might be viable, especially in a Golgari or Abzan midrange shell where this can come out at any point in the game and be a deal-with-me-now threat for just
two mana. The $3 price tag is frustrating because this card is a total boom-or-bust spec-we’re either talking about a $0.50 bulk rare or an $8-$10 format
staple with very little room in between. I’m not buying any copies myself, but if you showed up from the future with news that Soulflayer was the most
impactful card in Fate Reforged, I’d certainly believe you.
Frontier Siege – $2
The first thing you might miss about this card is that it gives you a tantalizing four mana a turn – two in each of your main phases. That means
that you get two mana back the turn you play it, providing you drop it onto the board during your first main. That’s great in Commander, especially if
you’re running someone like Omnath who can help bank your mana into one big play each turn.
Is that a good enough return for Standard? Possibly. This is certainly something that a G/R Monsters deck could want, especially if we get another solid
dragon or two. Low on mana? Ramp up to six or seven. Got a handful of Stormbreath Dragons? Use them as removal spells. I like this mostly as a long term
causal spec though-grab it at fifty or seventy-five cents this spring or summer and sell it for a couple of bucks in a year or so.
Crux of Fate – $2
End Hostilities hasn’t proven to be great, though it does see some play regardless. Crux of Fate is equally conditional, and its efficacy will depend on
how many dragons end up being Standard playable. If every deck has a few of them running around, Crux of Fate will be awful. If there aren’t any dragons,
Crux of Fate will be perfectly fine and a solid $2-$4 playable rare. If the best dragons are in black and you can build around this as a one-sided wrath,
Crux of Fate could be an archetyp-defining card. This isn’t going any lower than a buck regardless, so buying in at $2 is perfectly fine if you want to
build around it.
Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury – $1
Kolaghan is a marginal card in some Bladewing the Risen-based dragon Commander decks, but he has no real application beyond that. Future bulk rare.
Jeskai Infiltrator – $1
Even if there are going to be some serious manifest shenanigans in Standard, I don’t see Jeskai Infiltrator being the best way to make them happen. A 2/3
for three is seriously below curve, and most of the time you’re going to get a couple of perma-2/2s out of the deal. There’s some marginal card advantage
to be had here, but I think that this is mostly a Limited card. Future bulk rare.
Palace Siege – $1
The problem with Palace Siege is Whip of Erebos. In most iterations of Standard, you can count on your enchantment sticking around for the long haul. In
this one, cards like Erase and Reclamation Sage now have an additional target. That isn’t great, but it does make it possible that this card will drop to
bulk prices early on before seeing a resurgence in play as the format moves on.
At any rate, both halves of this flavorful card reward you for getting into a siege-like situation. If the board is stalled, you can either use the first
half of this card to continually loop creatures or the second half to try and Stab Wound your opponent(s) out of the game. Both abilities are good, and the
flexibility should help make this a marginal Standard playable that is a very solid casual card. There’s a little upside here at $1, and this could be a
$2-$3 card at some point.
Yasova Dragonclaw – $1
I want to like Yasova, but the mana investment here is just too much. A 4/2 for three isn’t great, and her threaten ability is too narrow to be worth the
cost most of the time. Future bulk rare.
Archfiend of Depravity – $0.50
I’m not saying that this is a playable Standard card, but I like it a lot more than most of the cards at the $1 level. A 5/4 flyer isn’t too far behind the
curve for 3BB, and its ability is fairly game-breaking against certain decks. I could see this guy seeing some sideboard play at the very least. Grab a set
at bulk rare prices, but the fact that this is an intro pack rare keeps it from having any real upside.
Shamanic Revelation – $0.50
This is the exact kind of card I am prone to overvalue, so take my recommendation with a Big Mac’s worth of salt. At $0.50, you’ve got a card that should
see a reasonable amount of Commander play and could see some work in Standard if we end up in a token-centric environment. You could do worse as a low-risk
home run swing.
-
Dragonscale General
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare -
Flamerush Rider
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare -
Temur War Shaman
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare -
Sage-Eye Avengers
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare -
Outpost Siege
– $0.50 – Bulk Rare
The Khans of Tarkir Fetchlands
While we’re on the topic of Fate Reforged, let’s take a moment to talk fetchlands. As you may have heard, WotC is Dragon’s Mazing the basic land slot of
Fate Reforged booster packs so that they will all have a piece of draftable mana fixing. Most boosters will contain a common tap land, but a select few
will have one of the five Khans Fetchlands instead. If they appear in roughly similar numbers to Dragon’s Maze, each box should have about two of them. It
is worth noting that while there were ten shocklands, there are only five Khans fetches, so the additional supply of these lands will be significant.
This should lay any speculation about the Zendikar fetches returning in this block to rest. They might show up in Magic 2016 or the fall set, but if the
Zendikar fetches were going to be in Khans block, WotC would have held off the Dragon’s Maze style supply increase until all ten were printed first.
Dragon’s Maze caused the Return to Ravnica block shocklands to drop in price by about 30%, but I doubt the same thing will happen to the Khans fetches. The
fetchlands rebounded in value much quicker than I expected, and the additional supply should be small enough to keep demand satiated without oversaturating
the market. These lands are better across all formats than the shocklands, so demand is naturally a good bit higher.
I expect the additional supply to keep the price of the Khans fetches low for a longer period of time though. Instead of bouncing back toward $20 right
away, these lands could stay in the $8-$15 for a year or more. I wouldn’t dump my fetches before Fate Reforged hits the streets, but I no longer believe it
is urgent to buy a long-term set right away. It’s now quite likely that the best long-term deals will be found over the summer or at set rotation. If
you’re hoarding fetches as a long-term spec, I recommend selling or trading them soon and using the money on cards that have a better chance of paying off
sooner.
I’ll be back next week with another big helping of Fate Reforged goodies. Until then, happy trading!