If you felt ripped off by the fact that Scourge only had four dragons in it, Dragons of Tarkir is the set for you. Dragons are oozing out of every nook and
cranny of this expansion, and you’re going to find them staring back at you from the back of your booster pack fairly often. There are fifteen of them at
rare or mythic, and that doesn’t even count the cards that make dragons, kill dragons, interact with dragons, or are otherwise related to our new scaly
overlords.
This is great for the long-term value of the set. Dragons are popular, and many of the random rares in Dragons of Tarkir will end up being worth more than
the price of a booster pack at some point in, say, 2020. In the meantime though, the abundance of dragons in this expansion isn’t a good thing. As Syndrome
reminded us in The Incredibles, “when everyone is super, no one will be.” At least with Scourge, opening a dragon felt like an epic experience. In
Dragons of Tarkir, it will likely be met with disappointment outside of a draft. Standard only has room for one or two playable giant fliers, if that. In
Commander, it’s safe to ignore all but the best 30-40 dragons ever printed. The rest of these monsters are going to be flying off toward the bulk box for
at least a year or two. Financially, Dragons of Tarkir is far from a bust-there are cards on this spoiler sure to appeal to every psychographic-but at
first glance, it appears to be one of the weaker large sets in recent history.
This week, I’ll be taking an in-depth look at the set’s mythic rares. Next week, I’ll cover all the rares and relevant uncommons. Let’s start with the
buzziest card in the whole set, an exciting new planeswalker with a price tag to match:
Narset Transcendent – $49.99
You might not have noticed, but the gang up in Seattle has gotten pretty good at balancing planeswalkers recently. Over the last few blocks, the majority
of ‘walkers have seen play as two-ofs or three-ofs in a tier one Standard deck. None of them have warped the format, but very few ended up being completely
unplayable either. Ashiok, Elspeth, Xenagos, Kiora, Sorin, Sarkhan…they’ve all had their month in the spotlight before the format moved on.
I’ve read several articles comparing Narset Transcendent to Eternal stapes Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Liliana of the Veil, but I don’t see it. Both of
those planeswalkers can come down and immediately end a threat or begin generating card advantage. Both have ultimate abilities that end the game outright.
Narset’s big advantage is that she starts at an absurd loyalty total, giving you a realistic shot at activating her ultimate if the board is locked up. Her
-2 ability is quite good too, provided you’re dropping her on turn 5 or 6 and you’ve got another spell in your hand ready to go. These are points in
Narset’s favor, but don’t mistake her for one of those win-con planeswalkers who can do it all. You can’t just throw Narset into a control shell and ride
her to victory-she’s strictly a support card.
I do think that Narset will find a home in Standard, probably as a two-of or three-of in a U/W or Jeskai shell. I’m not even close to declaring her Modern
or Legacy playable though, and I can’t see why people are shelling out $200 for a playset. $30 is the absolute long-term celling here, and I think a
$15-$20 price tag is the most likely outcome. If you open Narset at the Prerelease, trade her away immediately.
Sarkhan Unbroken – $29.99
Along with almost everyone else, my initial reaction to Sarkhan Unbroken was to dismiss him out of hand. Three colors of mana to cast? Big Timmy
casuals-only ultimate ability? Yawn, snooze, move on. Then I remembered that Siege Rhino is a three-color card, and that one’s fairly playable. So what
might a Sarkhan Unbroken deck look like in Standard?
To me, the whole thing hinges on Rattleclaw Mystic. Flip a mystic on-curve on turn 4, drop Sarkhan Unbroken-you don’t even need to have all three colors of
mana on your lands at this point!-and make a 4/4 dragon to block with. Then you can sit back and draw cards with Sarkhan all you want. Unlike Narset,
Sarkhan can end the game all by himself. Emptying your deck of Stormbreath Dragons is pretty good, of course, but even just drawing cards and making 4/4
dragons should be enough most of the time. I’m not saying Sarkhan Unbroken is better than Narset Transcendent-If given even odds, I’d bet on Narset having
the greater impact in Standard-I just think that they’re closer in power level than most people believe.
Unfortunately, this whole conversation is fairly useless from a practical finance perspective. Even if a crazy Temur deck emerges that can cast Sarkhan
with regularity, $30 is the maximum value he can maintain over the long haul. He’ll be limited to a single deck regardless, he’s not Modern playable, and
you couldn’t really ask for a narrower card in Commander. My guess is that Sarkhan stabilizes at $15 if he sees play, $8-$10 if he doesn’t. This is another
easy ‘sell’ call for me.
Dragonlord Atarka – $9.99
The snap comparison here is Bogardan Hellkite, but the lack of flash on Atarka limits her usefulness considerably. You’re either hoping to ramp up to seven
or run Atarka in some kind of Jund Whip shell. I doubt that Atarka replaces Hornet Queen as a finisher in any sort of reanimation or devotion build, though
it might find a home regardless simply due to the sheer amount of card advantage packed in a single dragon.
Much like Sarkhan Unbroken though, Atarka is going to be a one deck pony in even the best case scenario. When I look at potential breakouts, my first
thought is toward flexibility. Tasigur and Courser of Kruphix spiked because they see play in so many different decks, for example. That will never be the
case with Dragonlord Atarka, so I’m staying away. Long term, this has the look of a $3 mythic.
Ojutai Exemplars – $9.99
There are two things that people continuously underestimate when designing or analyzing cards: mana discounts and versatility. The former has given us
powerhouses like Gush, Palinchron, Mental Misstep, and the aforementioned Tasigur. The latter is one of the biggest reasons why blue is the best color
historically, getting to do Jace and Cryptic Command things while the green mage sits around with a hand of 6/6s for seven.
From that perspective, it seems like Ojutai Exemplars are being underrated. While you certainly wouldn’t pay 2WW for a vanilla 4/4, all three of the
abilities on this card are very good. In fact, you’re rarely going to be in a position where none of them will impact the board. This is also the sort of
versatile creature that can go in multiple different decks, making it an interesting potential spec target.
Four mana though? Four mana is a lot for any creature, much less one without any natural form of evasion, resilience, card advantage, or an
enters-the-battlefield trigger. It doesn’t quite do enough to be the top end of the curve on an aggro deck, and midrange decks already have Siege Rhino.
I’m keeping a watchful eye on Ojutai Exemplars, but I’d guess it’s more likely to be $4 than $20 in a month. There’s too much risk to buy in at $10, though
it’s possible this is one of those cards that will blow people away in testing and become a staple. Pay close attention during the first week or two of
Standard events after Dragons of Tarkir becomes legal.
Shorecrasher Elemental – $7.99
What will it take to resurrect Mono-Blue Devotion? Shorecrasher Elemental is a nice replacement for Nightveil Specter in the three-CMC spot, but the deck
is still sorely lacking in decent two-drops. Frostburn Weird has never been missed more, even though this guy does feel somewhat like a spiritual
successor.
With Siege Rhinos running around and no evasion on this card, Thassa, God of the Sea is going to be more important than ever in Mono-Blue. The deck is
probably going to be less powerful and significantly less versatile than it was last year, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be playable. The fact that
Shorecrasher Elemental is an elemental helps too. Thanks, Master of Waves!
Could Shorecrasher Elemental see play out of the sideboard in other control matchups? It’s possible, but I don’t quite get the Aetherling comparisons
running around. Shorecrasher Elemental isn’t that hard to kill, and even its protection ability returns it to the battlefield face down, forcing you to
unmorph it. I can’t imagine this card making much of an impact beyond the world of devotion decks.
Even though I do think that Shorecrasher Elemental will lead to somewhat of a Mono-Blue resurgence, I’m still bearish on the prices of all of these cards.
Thassa and Master of Waves nearly tripled in price, which is about at their ceiling if the deck does well. Since we’re still just speculating about
playability at this point, they’re easy ships for me. As for Shorecrasher Elemental, he could hit $10-$12 if devotion makes a comeback, but he’s a $3
mythic if it doesn’t. That’s not a gamble I’ll ever take, but if you’re dead set on building the deck yourself, buying in at current retail is fine.
Dragon Whisperer – $7.99
I might change my mind once I play a few games of Dragons Limited, but Formidable seems like a mechanic that I’m going to hate. It’s far too win-more to
build around in Constructed, and it’s going to create really stupid situations in Draft and Sealed where someone hits an arbitrary amount of power on the
board and then just gets to win the game.
The Formidable ability is probably the cause of Dragon Whisperer’s mythic rarity, but the reason to like this card is the fact that it’s a scalable
two-drop that can fly over a G/W or Abzan ground stall. The two red mana symbols in the top right corner are pretty important too, and it’s worth noting
that Dragon Whisperer plus an active Purphoros gives you that crucial eighth point of power all by themselves. This isn’t going to replace Eidolon of the
Great Revel anytime soon, but red decks can usually find room for another solid two-drop regardless of what else is legal in Standard. I figure that’ll be
the case here as well.
Dragon Whisperer has a nominal floor of about $5 and a ceiling in the $16-$17 range. I’m staying away as a speculator, but $8 isn’t a bad buy for anyone
who wants to build red devotion to play with on day one. The pre-order premium isn’t too bad here, and you’ll probably be able to get out with just a
nominal loss if the deck doesn’t end up working out.
Dragonlord Dromoka – $7.99
Much like the other mythic dragons, good luck ever beating Dragonlord Dromoka in Limited. Nice Baneslayer, bro.
I can see Dragonlord Dromoka coming in out of the sideboard against removal-light decks, but I never bet on creatures that don’t do anything when they
enter the battlefield and die to pretty much all removal. There are already dozens of creatures with these qualities on their resume’, and very few of them
ever make much of an impact in Constructed play. There are cases when you’d rather have Dromoka in play than Hornet Queen or Whisperwood Elemental, but
they’re rare.
Casual demand should keep Dragonlord Dromoka in the $4-$5 range though. This shuts down the kinds of decks that kitchen table mages tend to loathe, and it
really does have a solid mythic feel to it. I don’t think that Dromoka will ever do much in competitive play, but it should hold most of its value over the
long haul regardless.
Dragonlord Silumgar – $7.99
Silumgar is my favorite card in the new Elder Dragon cycle. It’s true that he’s just as killable as Dromoka-maybe more so, since he doesn’t shut down your
opponent’s instant-speed spells-but I wouldn’t sleep on just how powerful his ability is. Stealing creatures is good, but stealing planeswalkers is very,
very, very good. Worst case, you get a free crack at a small plus or minus ability. Best case, you get to swing the game with a stolen ultimate. Anyone
who’s ever played with Zealous Conscripts is nodding slowly right now.
Control Magic and Sower of Temptation are all-stars at four mana. Silumgar costs six, but you get a 3/5 flying deathtouch dragon and the option to steal a
planeswalker for your troubles. It’s possible that this is just too expensive to see extensive play, but I doubt it. Worst case, Silumgar is an amazing
Commander card that’s also a two-of out of the sideboard of whatever U/B Control deck ends up developing.
I doubt casual demand will let Dragonlord Silumgar go too far below $5-$6, and Constructed demand could push this above $10. If you want a copy of Silumgar
for yourself, trading for it at the Prerelease is probably fine.
Shaman of Forgotten Ways – $7.99
Creatures that have value in the early going while threatening to win the long game are among Magic’s most valuable commodities. Any time an opponent has
to use their removal on one of your accelerators after you’ve emptied your hand is a point in your favor.
Problem is, neither of the two abilities on Shaman of Forgotten Ways is all that great for 2G. I like that it has a relevant 2/3 body, but the fact that
you can’t use the generated mana on sorceries, instants, planeswalkers, abilities, or enchantments really hurts the Shaman’s chances of seeing play. In
addition, I don’t know how often the Formidable ability will actually be useful. One game in fifteen? One game in twenty?
Shaman of Forgotten Ways is incredible in Commander though, and that should keep the price at $4-$5. We’re also talking about a $25 card if Shaman of
Forgotten Ways ends up replacing Courser of Kruphix in post-rotation green decks too. I don’t think that’s very likely, and I expect the card’s demand to
stay purely in the casual realm, but if this starts showing up as a four-of in winning tournament lists, I’ll be buying in at current retail as quickly as
I can.
Deathmist Raptor – $6.99
Deathmist Raptor keeps trending up, and I can see why. Unlike most of the cards on this list, Deathmist Raptor has a home already waiting for it in G/W
Devotion. The deathtouch allows this card to trade off with any bigger non-flying threat, and the fact that the deck already runs four copies of Mastery of
the Unseen and four copies of Whisperwood Elemental means that bringing these back from the graveyard is relatively easy. Beating a deck that can bring 2-3
of these back at once is going to be pretty difficult.
Could Deathmist Raptor find other homes too? A lot of that will depend on how playable the 2/1 megamorph cycle ends up being. The green one is a
pseudo-Eternal Witness, so it’s not crazy to believe that we might actually see Deathmist Raptor in multiple winning decks.
If Deathmist Raptor does end up as a four-of in G/W Devotion, it should hover in the $10-$12 range. If it ends up in multiple decks, we’d be looking at a
$15-$20 mythic. If neither pans out, it’ll fall to $2-$3. I’m not buying in as a speculator, but if you’re already running four Whisperwood Elementals in
your primary Standard deck and you’re itching to try this out, pre-ordering at retail is fine.
Dragonlord Ojutai – $5.99
When I started writing this article, Dragonlord Ojutai was selling for $3.99 and I was ready to gush for a couple of paragraphs about why he made for such
a good buy. Alas, $5.99 is much closer to fair value, so my comments will have to be a little more tempered.
Ojutai might not do as much as the new Silumgar, but having hexproof while untapped cures a whole lot of ills. You can play Ojutai without having to worry
about it getting killed before your next combat phase, at which point you’ll have enough mana to theoretically keep it protected. If you can start getting
in hits with Ojutai, you’re in a very good place – getting to Impulse once a turn is going to be hard for anyone to come back from.
Ultimately, Ojutai feels like a stronger Prognostic Sphinx to me, and that card has seen a good deal of Standard play over the past year. Ojutai might not
be a tier one finisher, but it’ll show up as a two-of or three-of in whatever U/W or Esper Control deck materializes. I doubt we’ll see Ojutai fall too far
below the $5-$8 range during its time in Standard, so buying a copy or two now is fine.
Dragonlord Kolaghan – $3.99
I don’t understand why you’d print an ability that’s worthless in Commander on the first cycle of actual elder dragons in many years. If you’re not making
a card like this for the format formerly known as Elder Dragon Highlander, what’s the point?
In terms of Standard playability, Kolaghan feels like the weakest of the cycle. Her abilities compare unfavorably to Stormbreath Dragon, who brings just as
much pain for 3RR. Could we all be underrating Kolaghan’s ten damage ability though? Taking a hit from this, untapping, and killing it when you’ve already
got a copy of your removal spell in the graveyard is a great way to take sixteen damage from a single creature, after all. I do think that
Kolaghan might find life out of the sideboard against decks that want to play around with their graveyard, but the fact that you can delve away the
offending spells make it likely that Kolaghan simply picked the wrong block to try and make an impact. Unless something changes, I’d bet Kolaghan will drop
to $2-$3 shortly after release.
Descent of the Dragons – $3.99
Any deck running Descent of the Dragons is also going to have four copies of Hordeling Outburst, Battlefield Thaumaturge, and Hour of Need, right? It’s
almost too perfect. While I doubt that strategy will break out beyond the second tier of playability, Battlefield Thaumaturge is kind of a spicy spec
target at $0.49 each. I’m in for a playset.
Beyond that, Descent of the Dragons has an outside shot at breaking through as a permanent overrun in some kind of tokens deck. The lack of haste will
probably prevent this from ever becoming a thing, but I kind of like the idea of turning my whole board into 4/4 fliers while also negating my opponent’s
big control threat. I’m not dismissing Descent of the Dragons entirely, but its most likely path is toward bulkdom.
Risen Executioner – $2.99
Risen Executioner has the look of yet another unplayable finisher, but it’s always worth paying extra attention to $3-and-under mythic rares. You’re not
going to make much money if your $8 spec target hits, but at $3 you’re in the money if Risen Executioner turns out to be a hidden gem.
So let’s break this sucker down. 2BB for a 4/3 that can’t block is a pretty terrible deal. It doesn’t attack through a Siege Rhino, and control decks
generally want their midgame control creatures to be able to block and trade. The fact that you can replay this from your graveyard is the crucial piece of
text here, and the drawback (having other creatures in your graveyard) is easy enough to avoid if you’re running a handful of delve spells. Risen
Executioner interacts pretty well with Necromancer’s Stockpile and Waste Not as well. You’re probably not turning that brew into a tier one deck with this
guy, but it certainly slots in fairly nicely.
Long term, Risen Executioner should hold a non-bulk amount of demand as a zombie lord. Death Barons are always easy to trade, and Risen Executioner is
going to be a must-play in casual zombie tribal going forward.
Is that enough to keep Risen Executioner out of the bulk pile? Probably not, but recursive threats tend to be somewhat underrated. This is one of those
cards I’ll probably grab four or five sets of at $1 per card in a few weeks just in case.
Clone Legion – $1.99
In Commander, nine mana gets you a kicked Rite of Replication. With that card, you have the option of buying a normal Clone for 2UU or getting five copies
of the best thing on the battlefield for 7UU. While Clone Legion might give you a better army than Rite in some cases, I can’t imagine any blue deck
running the latter over the former. Some brews might run both, of course, but the number of nine-drops that have become Commander staples is vanishingly
small. I’d rather spend my time casting things like Insurrection, Time Stretch, or an Eldrazi Titan. Demand for Clone Legion is going to be sparse, and
this is easily the worst mythic rare in the set.
This Week’s Trends
– Standard demand over the past few days has focused almost entirely around two pairs of cards-Thassa, God of the Sea and Master of Waves as people dream
on Mono-Blue Devotion, and Whisperwood Elemental and Mastery of the Unseen as folks build G/W Devotion. All four are still trending slowly upwards, and I’m
selling into hype.
– See the Unwritten doubled this week on Battle for Zendikar hype. I hope you bought in last week like I told you to! The card is still hovering around $4,
and I’m expecting it to jump past $10 as soon as the first new Eldrazi Titan is spoiled. Right now, I’m holding all of mine, and I’m getting ready to buy
back in again if the price falls off some over the summer as people get impatient.
– Casual dragons everywhere continue to sell out and spike. Scion of the Ur-Dragon, Hellkite Tyrant, Scourge of Valkas, Dragon Broodmother, Karrthus,
Tyrant of Jund, and even Dragonmaster Outcast are spiking as casual players build dragon-themed Commander decks. Check your local shops and pick up any
dragons that feel underpriced.
– Last week, I predicted that Snapcaster Mage would be a $50 card by the beginning of summer. Right now, I’m fairly sure it’ll be a $50 card by the end of
this month. Liliana of the Veil and Splinter Twin are also still slowly rising due to Modern demand.