Do you peek?
The question in question is about whether you should peek at your next few cards after choosing to take a mulligan (or after the end of a game). Do you look, and if so, do you let what you see influence future decisions?
Really, it all comes down to math. Let’s say I am in a spot where I have a hand that is great if I topdeck my one out (to the point where I estimate a 90% chance of victory if I topdeck it), but awful if I do not. Let’s also suppose I have an 80% chance of topdecking that out.
My chances of topdecking the out and then winning the game are 72%, whereas the chance that I will fail to topdeck the out are 20% and the chance of drawing the out and then losing the game are 8%.
72% chance of victory if you keep. Do you keep, or do you mulligan?
Simple – you only mulligan if you expect a better-than-72% chance of victory with your next hand. Otherwise, 72% is the best you’re going to get, and you’d better keep it while you still can.
These are all very nice, neat mathematical calculations that are all based on numbers you will never in your life have precise access to. Looking at only your opening hand, you will never actually know what your odds of victory are, and frankly, if you even managed to guess it to within ten percent of correct, I would be really impressed. There are just way too many variables.
So let’s say you’re playing with a deck like… oh, I don’t know, let me just pick one totally at random… how about All-In Red? Let’s say you’re playing with AIR, in an actual tournament match of Magic: the Gathering, and you want to answer a question like “What are the chances I can topdeck a Ritual effect and a threat in either of my first two draw steps?”
One way to answer this question is to go through your decklist in your mind, subtract out the cards in your hand, tally up all the outs in question, and work out the drawing-without-replacement combination mathematics on your score pad. If you are able to do all this quickly enough to not have a judge called on you for Slow Play, then I heartily endorse this method; go ahead and pat yourself on the back and disregard the next paragraph.
For the remaining 99% of us, you are going to have to give it your best guess. This guess will be informed by all the similar situations that have come up in testing, and in other tournament games you have played. How many times have you kept a similar hand and actually drawn the outs? If you’ve tried enough times, you will at least have a reasonable idea of what your chances are.
Peeking can help inform these situations. If you have committed to taking a mulligan already because you think the math is against you, looking at the top few cards can serve as a data point – and nothing more – to inform future decisions.
Of course, this shortcut can be horribly misused. If you play it all wishy-washy and say “last time I mulliganed, I should have kept!” and then keep the next time a similar situation comes up, lose, and then say “last time I kept, I should have mulliganed!” and switch your strategy back, you’re doing yourself far more harm than good. In that case, I recommend you stop peeking and seek counseling.
All-In Red
There are two things I’d really like to try out in All-In Red. The first is Arc Slogger over Empty the Warrens. Engineered Explosives is practically ubiquitous in non-aggro decks these days, and Mister Big Slogs (think of him as 3RR for a 4/5 with “when this comes into play, search your library for four Shocks and put them into your hand”) should give AIR a way to actually beat Elves! when it doesn’t hit a super-early Deus of Calamity.
The other thing I want to try has to do with one of the first things I noticed about this deck: it is already playing the maximum amount of red-generating ritual effects in the format. Mana Seism (which surely should have swapped names with Desperate Ritual – I mean, look at what it does) can theoretically generate a heap of mana, but it can’t do it when you’ve only had time for a land drop or two, and its colorless mana won’t help you cast Demigod or Deus besides.
So, having maxed out on ritual effects, the rest of the deck is, by necessity, support cards and finishers. Honestly, I wanted more ritual effects than the maximum number of legal ones in Extended, so I turned to an oft-overlooked card that is ideally suited (as we have seen in Vintage Ichorid) to a deck that is all-in on the first turn or two of the game: Serum Powder.
The most recently successful AIR list was the one piloted by Petras Ratkevicius at Worlds. I hearkened back a bit to Rashad Miller’s list from Berlin, which played only 18 lands and none of the scattered one-ofs like Jitte, Shattering Spree, and Trinisphere. I have nothing inherently against one-ofs, but I frankly do not think this is a deck that gets good mileage out of having them in the maindeck.
Here’s my list:
For a deck like this, the first question to answer is: how consistently can I go off? This is a question most quickly answered by goldfishing.
I’ve never done an article examining a set of goldfishing games before, but there is a great opportunity to answer several different questions at once. The questions:
1) Which is usually better, Arc Slogger or Empty the Warrens – and by how much?
2) How consistently does this deck “go off” – that is, do something broken in the first turn or two?
3) How good or bad is Serum Powder?
Since I am goldfishing and cannot bother a human opponent, I can delve into several different routes of play, such as “what if I had Trinisphere instead of Serum Powder here? Would I still want to mulligan, and if so, what kind of hand would I end up with?” I can also peek at my top cards to start informing future decisions of just how greedy it is to keep a hand that doesn’t have all the goods yet.
Game 1:
Serum Powder
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Desperate Ritual
Blood Moon
Demigod of Revenge
Demigod of Revenge
This hand is completely different depending on whether you are on the play or on the draw.
On the play, turn 1 Blood Moon is exponentially more devastating than on the draw; even the decks that are ostensibly resilient to it (Swans, etc.) cannot fetch out a basic on turn 1 when the Moon is out before their first turn. Also remember that Elves! plays a highly unpredictable quantity of Basic Forests; since Berlin, I have seen as many as 16 and as few as 3, so you can absolutely shut down the Mono-Green deck with a first-turn Moon. I have a Powder available for a free mull, but I definitely would not take it here if I were on the play.
(Peeking says that my next two draws were Mountain, Seething Song, for the turn 3 Demigod.)
However, on the draw, this is a much riskier hand. If the opponent has a Spell Snare, turn 1 Blood Moon is right out the door, and if he has a Mana Leak thereafter, the hand absolutely falls apart. Too risky when I have Powder access.
If I were on the draw, I would have taken a Powder into:
Mountain
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Rite of Flame
Simian Spirit Guide
Magus of the Moon
Deus of Calamity
Notice how similar – and yet crucially different – this hand is from the last one. For one, since I am on the draw, I can topdeck another accelerant to enable first-turn Deus. For another, depending on my opponent’s first-turn play, I can either deploy first-turn Blood Moon (Spell Snare-proof since I am not relying on Desperate Ritual) or second-turn Deus, depending on which seems better. Even better, I have three real mana sources to work with, so I am not far off from hardcasting Deus if I go the Blood Moon route. I would keep this, on the draw.
Now let’s say I had Trinisphere rather than Serum Powder on the draw. I certainly still mulligan there, but instead I would go to six and see:
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Rite of Flame
Seething Song
Blood Moon
Here, my outs are pretty straightforward. Any non-Song, non-Mox accelerant gives me turn 1 Blood Moon, and any big creature can be cast on turn two. I’d keep this.
(Peeking tells me that the top two cards were Seething Song and then Trinisphere.)
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw, and Serum Powder was far better than an alternative such as Trinisphere. Empty versus Slogger did not come up.
Game 2:
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Simian Spirit Guide
Blood Moon
Deus of Calamity
Empty/Slogger
In this hand, Empty is essentially four mana for two lousy 1/1s, so I would certainly prefer Big Slogs here. All this hand has going for it is turn 2 Blood Moon, and nothing to do on turn 3. I’ll ship it back.
A peek at the top card reveals Seething Song, so I actually had a turn-two Deus coming if I had kept. Bummer.
The next six:
Serum Powder
Simian Spirit Guide
Simian Spirit Guide
Seething Song
Seething Song
Deus of Calamity
Would you keep this? A no-lander?
I would definitely keep. Here are my outs: 18 Mountain, 4 Chrome Mox, 4 Rite of Flame, 4 Desperate Ritual, 2 Simian Spirit Guide – I have a 60% chance of drawing one of these, and as soon as I do, I have Deus mana. If I do that turn 1, my hand is unreal. If I do it turn 2, it’s still fine. If I do it turn 3, it’s mediocre – but still potentially better than what I’d get from a five-card hand. These odds are perfectly acceptable to me.
I keep, and the top card is Desperate Ritual. Ding!
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw, and Slogger was definitely better than Empty. Serum Powder did not come up.
Game 3:
Mountain
Mountain
Blood Moon
Magus of the Moon
Empty/Slogger
Deus of Calamity
Deus of Calamity
This hand is an obvious disaster. Ship it back for:
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Blood Moon
Blood Moon
Serum Powder
Seething Song
Time to take a Powder! If Serum Powder had been something like Trinisphere here, I would be stuck with the uncomfortable decision of keeping a real turd of a hand or going to five, which I will explore later. Instead I get a new six:
Mountain
Mountain
Seething Song
Blood Moon
Demigod of Revenge
Demigod of Revenge
This is easily the best hand I’ve seen so far, although it’s still poor. If I topdeck any accelerant but Seething Song, I can have Demigod on turn 2, and another topdecked mana source will give me Blood Moon on turn 3 to wash it down. This is the type of hand that I would consider an above-average five-card hand, meaning that I expect to do worse if I mull to five. I will keep.
Peeking says that if I’m on the play here, I topdeck Mountain and have no action until turn 3, but if I’m on the draw, I hit Simian Spirit Guide in time and can play turn 2 Demigod, turn 3 Blood Moon.
Any way you slice it, though, this hand and those draws mean I fold to a Mana Leak. On the play, I have no action until turn 3, and on the draw, I have only turn 2 Demigod.
If I’d gone to five, I would have had:
Mountain
Mountain
Desperate Ritual
Simian Spirit Guide
Seething Song
… all with two lands on top – literally no action at all.
Verdict: Fails to go off until turn 3 on the play (probably too slow), goes off with Mana Leak vulnerabilities on the draw. Powder was much better than Trinisphere, and Empty versus Slogger did not come up.
Game 4:
Mountain
Simian Spirit Guide
Rite of Flame
Seething Song
Magus of the Moon
Deus of Calamity
Demigod of Revenge
Okay, so sometimes you just draw the textbook nuts. Your choice of first-turn Magus, Demigod, or Deus depending on how frisky you’re feeling. Obvious keep.
Verdict: Stone cold nuts. Nothing matters.
Game 5:
Serum Powder
Mountain
Mountain
Rite of Flame
Simian Spirit Guide
Blood Moon
Empty/Slogger
On the play, this is an easy keep due to turn 1 Blood Moon.
On the draw, I would probably keep, provided the wildcard is Slogger. I have two Mountains and Serum Powder, which means if I open with (on the draw) turn 1 Blood Moon and then draw two more lands (or a land and an accelerant, or just a Seething Song) over the next couple turns, I will have turn 4 Arc Slogger at the latest, allowing me to mop up. Empty, however, would be pretty much garbage at that point, and the fact that I could decline to go for the first-turn Moon in order to Empty up four Goblins (or six, or eight – that is, if I topdeck a Rite, Seething Song, Mox, or Desperate Ritual, and then a second one) on turn 2… does not excite me. They still all die to Engineered Explosives, and will not help me one lick against Elves!
All things considered, I’d keep this even on the draw, provided Empty is Arc-Slogger. I would have topdecked Mountain and then Seething Song, allowing turn 1 Blood Moon and turn 3 Arc-Slogger. Savage.
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder did not come up.
Game 6:
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Chrome Mox
Rite of Flame
Desperate Ritual
Blood Moon
Blood Moon
Here is a fresh conundrum. I obviously have turn 1 Blood Moon… but then nothing else. In these situations, my mana composition becomes very important. On the play, I would play Mountain, Mox imprinting Blood Moon, Mox imprinting Desperate Ritual (Rite is Spell Snare-proof), and Blood Moon. This would leave me with only a Rite of Flame in my hand, but three reusable mana sources out. To score some action, I would only need to topdeck one mana source and one big creature before my opponent did something gross like cast Engineered Explosives for zero and explode my Moxen, or find some basics.
I actually like my odds there better than my odds with six cards, so I would keep this. As it turned out, my first threat was seven cards down; on the draw, I would have had turn 1 Blood Moon, turn 6 Deus of Calamity. Would that have been enough to win? I’m not sure.
Let’s see what my six-card hand would have looked like:
Serum Powder
Mountain
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Seething Song
Seething Song
Wow, the only valuable card in this hand is Serum Powder. I guess I’ll use it. The next six:
Mountain
Mountain
Rite of Flame
Seething Song
Empty/Slogger
Deus of Calamity
So I have my choice of turn 2 Deus or turn 2 Slogger. (Yet again Slogger would be preferable to six goblins.) It’s worth noting that the Serum Powder removed two Seething Songs and a Mox from my deck before I shuffled up to draw this hand, so this Seething Song was one of only two left in my deck. Pretty lucky.
If Serum Powder had been Trinisphere, I might have kept the Mountain–Mountain-Mox-Song-Song-Trinisphere hand rather than going to five if I were on the play, but it would have been shaky. After all, turn 2 Trinisphere with three durable mana sources and a Seething Song in hand needs only a topdecked fatty to be in business. However, the fatty has to come before the opponent starts working around the Trinisphere; if he hits a third land, suddenly you are vulnerable to all manner of countermagic. (As it turned out, the Demigod was three cards down – maybe too late, maybe not, depending on the matchup.)
On the draw, I definitely would have shipped it for these five:
Mountain
Mountain
Simian Spirit Guide
Empty/Slogger
Empty/Slogger
The stone awfuls. Real glad I had Serum Powder there!
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder was better than Trinisphere.
Game 7:
Mountain
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Simian Spirit Guide
Rite of Flame
Seething Song
Seething Song
If you accidentally keep this hand, your best shot is to think for awhile, then play Mountain, Mox, Song, and just say “look, do we have to play this out?” Maybe they’ll scoop!
Back in real life, ship that garbage back for:
Mountain
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Chrome Mox
Rite of Flame
Demigod of Revenge
In other words, more garbage. The absolute earliest you could cast that Demigod would be turn 3, and you’d have nothing to follow it up with. Your only hope is to topdeck Blood Moon, and that’s a really low probability. (I peeked; you wouldn’t have.) Instead, I’d ship for:
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Blood Moon
Seething Song
Empty/Slogger
This is much better. A topdecked accelerant (other than Seething Song) yields either turn 1 Blood Moon or turn 1 or 2 Empty/Slogger, depending if the topdeck occurred on turn 1 (which could only happen if you were on the draw) or on turn 2.
As it turned out, the topdecks were Serum Powder, then Mountain – meaning on the draw, you could have turn 2 Empty/Slogger or Blood Moon, but on the play you would have to wait for turn 3.
Also, yet again I would prefer Slogger to Empty – six Goblins on turn 2 or 3 is just not as impressive as a 4/5 plus four Shocks.
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder did not come up.
Game 8:
Serum Powder
Serum Powder
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Demigod of Revenge
Garbage, but for the Powders! Ship it back for:
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Simian Spirit Guide
Simian Spirit Guide
Desperate Ritual
Empty/Slogger
Deus of Calamity
This is an instant keeper. Turn 1 Deus or Slogger, to taste, with zero cards left in hand. All in, boys! Again, I would rather have turn 1 Arc-Slogger than turn 1 six Goblins.
Had Powder been Trinisphere, the mull to six would have been:
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Blood Moon
Deus of Calamity
Have to ship that back… instead, see:
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Blood Moon
Demigod of Revenge
Demigod of Revenge
Not bad, for five. Topdecked Mountain yields turn 2 Blood Moon, topdecked non-Song accelerant yields it turn 1. Turns out the draw is Mountain. Turn 2 Blood Moon might get you there against the right deck.
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder was much, much better than Trinisphere would have been.
Game 9:
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Empty/Slogger
Demigod
Right out. The next six:
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Blood Moon
Magus of the Moon
Empty/Slogger
Er, turn 3 Blood Moon? We’re headed to the land of Five:
Mountain
Mountain
Rite of Flame
Seething Song
Deus of Calamity
Turn 2 Deus, and Spell Snare proof! (Topdeck is Mountain, so no hope for turn 1 on the play.) Quality five-card hands like this are tough to find with this deck, as all the pieces need to line up just right – but they certainly can, from time to time.
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw – despite a mull to five! Neither Serum Powder nor Empty versus Slogger came up.
Game 10:
Mountain
Mountain
Mountain
Chrome Mox
Rite of Flame
Seething Song
Blood Moon
This is basically a rehash of the Game 6 hand; you have turn 1 Blood Moon and nothing else. This is Spell Snare-proof, though, and has four durable mana sources, so I would keep it on the play or on the draw. The topdecks would have been Magus of the Moon, Seething Song, Magus, Blood Moon, Empty/Slogger. In other words, nonbasic lands are Mountains this game. No, seriously, they are Mountains. You might think you will stop them from being Mountains, but you would be wrong, because nonbasic lands will be nothing but Mountains this game. Then Slogger would come down because, once again, Empty would be garbage.
Verdict: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw, and neither Serum Powder nor Empty versus Slogger came up.
Takeaways
Here are the ten “verdicts” for the questions I was interested in investigating:
Game 1: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw, and Serum Powder was far better than an alternative such as Trinisphere. Empty versus Slogger did not come up.
Game 2: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw, and Slogger was definitely better than Empty. Serum Powder did not come up.
Game 3: Fails to go off until turn 3 on the play (probably too slow), goes off with Mana Leak vulnerabilities on the draw. Powder was much better than Trinisphere, and Empty versus Slogger did not come up.
Game 4: Stone cold nuts. Nothing matters.
Game 5: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder did not come up.
Game 6: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder was better than Trinisphere.
Game 7: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder did not come up.
Game 8: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw. Slogger was better than Empty, and Serum Powder was much, much better than Trinisphere would have been.
Game 9: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw – despite a mull to five! Neither Serum Powder nor Empty versus Slogger came up.
Game 10: Definitely goes off, on the play or on the draw, and neither Serum Powder nor Empty versus Slogger came up.
Here are the takeaways from all this:
• AIR went off on the play in 9 out of 10 games, and 10 out of 10 games on the draw. That’s plenty consistent if you ask me.
• Arc-Slogger looked better than Empty the Warrens in 5 out of 5 games where it came up.
• Serum Powder was better than Trinisphere (or any other three-mana “threat” I could reasonably imagine playing in that slot) in 4 out of 4 games where it came up.
AIR is not at all a tricky deck, so it is very unlikely I will play it this season. However, it is the deck I think will be second-most likely to be woefully underestimated this season (after Elves!) and I wanted to give its goldfishing capabilities a whirl to make sure I was not myself underestimating it.
Final verdict? This is a very consistent, very powerful deck. Expect turn 1 Blood Moon or turn 2 scary fatty (or turn 1 scary fatty) almost every single time from this deck. Be prepared.
See you next week!
Richard Feldman
Team :S
[email protected]