Hello everyone, and welcome back to my daily series of financial articles about Theros! There were a ton of cards spoiled this past weekend during PAX and even more spoiled today by Wizards on Dailymtg.com! Let’s just dive straight into discussion about the cards.
How I review:
Starting Price: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price—Short Term: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Theros.
Future Price—Medium Term: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Born of the Gods) comes out.
Future Price—Long Term: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the next fall set is released (name unknown!).
And now for the new rares and mythics!
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Artisan of Forms |
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Clones that don’t immediately clone aren’t generally very good. Artisan of Forms is no Phantasmal Image. Unlike many other heroic triggers, this one may not do anything at all. Bulk rare.
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Bident of Thassa |
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
The Theros Prerelease promo. Coastal Piracy never made much of a splash. This is an improved version of Coastal Piracy, and I don’t think it will make much of a splash again. Add that it’s the Prerelease promo (which will add a gazillion copies to circulation) and I see the Bident sticking to bulk rare value for most of the next year.
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Chained to the Rocks |
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Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $3 Future Price (Medium Term): $4 Future Price (Long Term): $3 |
I anticipate Chained to the Rocks having a roller-coaster ride in value. The two most obvious targets for this card are Sacred Foundry and Plateau—I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chained to the Rocks on these two lands more often than it lands on a Mountain! This is one of the first cards I’ve seen that is best in Modern—Boros is a much stronger deck in Modern than in Standard, and Wasteland removes Chained from the Rocks too often for Legacy play. Since Modern season isn’t until January, I see this dipping over the next couple of months, jumping up again from January to April, and then tanking in value as Sacred Foundry gets set to rotate out of Standard next fall.
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Curse of the Swine |
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Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Bulk rare. Pseudo-wraths like this one almost never work out. I was surprised by the demand on this card at $1. It’s still selling strong at $2, but I don’t believe this is sustainable.
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Daxos of Meletis |
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Starting Price: $4 Current Price: $4 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $2 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
I’ve heard this compared to Geist of Saint Traft, but the strongest part of Geist was hexproof. This is no Geist; it’s another in a line of 2/2 creatures for three that has an ability if you hit but does not have (real) evasion or ability to survive removal. See also Dimir Cutpurse, Augury Adept.
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Elspeth, Sun’s Champion |
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Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $25 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
Six mana is mostly the kiss of death for the value of a planeswalker. Garruk, Caller of Beasts is the rare exception because Garruk’s second ability can often read "win the game." None of Elspeth’s three abilities are that good. Elspeth will be popular with casual players and is good in a slow format but likely won’t make a splash in any serious Constructed formats.
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Gift of Immortality |
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $2 |
Will follow the "good" trajectory for popular casual cards that don’t see tournament play—it will drop to $1 and slowly climb back up to $2 as the supply dries out once the format is no longer drafted/redeemed on Magic Online.
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Hammer of Purphoros |
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
One of the benefits of never taking time off work during spoiler season is that I get to read a lot of people’s reaction to cards as they are spoiled. This is not Fires of Yavimaya. What made Fires of Yavimaya great was Saproling Burst, and what made it good was Flametongue Kavu. This is more Wand of the Elements, and that card did not make a splash. I just don’t see this being a big player in Standard at a six-mana cost for your first 3/3 hasty creature.
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Heliod, God of the Sun |
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Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $15 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
Let’s discuss planeswalkers. I widely recognize the planeswalker effect during the preorder period. People go nuts buying into the hype of planeswalkers, and more often than not the planeswalkers end up halving in value (or worse) a couple of months after release.
I believe that the cycle of Theros Gods are going to also fall into this trap. They are big, splashy, never-done-before-type creatures that hit all the right notes between casual/competitive play, flavor attraction, and big numbers. But are they good?
Let’s look at Heliod. Imagine Heliod was not a creature. How would you evaluate this card?
Cleric-Making Dude 3W
Legendary Enchantment
Indestructible
Creatures you control have vigilance.
2WW: Put a 2/1 white Cleric enchantment creature token onto the battlefield
I know that if I looked at that card, I’d think $1 bulk rare that has some appeal to casual players. Here’s the $1,000,000 (or $10 in the case of card value) question: will you ever end up with a 5/6 creature attached to this enchantment? Let’s imagine it without the need for devotion but as an always-on creature.
Heliod, Doesn’t Need Worshipping 3W
Legendary Creature – God
Indestructible
Other creatures you control have vigilance.
2WW: Put a 2/1 white Cleric enchantment creature token onto the battlefield.
5/6
Much better, especially just as a French vanilla 5/6 indestructible creature for four mana (the other two abilities are not as relevant at that point).
My bet is that devotion will hit often enough in Commander play to keep the price on the God cards high, but I just don’t see devotion turning these Gods on very often in Standard unless there’s something coming in the spoilers that is designed to play well with these Gods.
Last note: The mythic Eldrazi from Rise of the Eldrazi are very comparable to the Gods in this set. They tanked short-term (except for Emrakul, who saw tournament play) but eventually went nuts in value as supply of ROE dried up. There will be a LOT more copies of the Gods in circulation than the mythic Eldrazi, but I expect the trajectory to be similar (just on a smaller scale).
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Hundred-Handed One |
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Starting Price: $1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Super flavorful. I think that the ability on monstrous is making people undervalue Hundred-Handed One as a strictly casual card (99 creatures? ha ha!). I see a 3/5 vigilance creature for four mana, and that’s a really large body for white to have in Standard. I’d suggest picking up a playset because if worse comes to worst it drops to total bulk price and you’re out $2 on the playset.
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Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx |
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Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $12 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $5 |
I’ve seen this compared to Gaea’s Cradle. Gaea’s Cradle didn’t need an activation cost—it just tapped for mana. The more apt comparison is to Cabal Coffers. Unfortunately, it’s much easier to get multiple Swamps into play than to play multiple B (or whatever color) of permanents on the board. I think that Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx will be tried in Constructed formats, but I don’t see which deck this slots into or how it reliably produces more mana than it costs to activate. I think it’ll hold long-term value for casual play but there will be too many copies out there printed to keep it as a higher-dollar card due to tournament play.
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Nylea, God of the Hunt |
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Starting Price: $5 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $10 Future Price (Medium Term): $6 Future Price (Long Term): $10 |
See Heliod, except Nylea’s stats are less impressive on a green creature and Nylea’s activated ability is worse than putting creatures into play.
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Polis Crusher |
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Starting Price:$1 Current Price: $1 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
If the majority of good creatures in Standard end up being enchantment creatures or the main removal ends up being enchantment removal (see Chained to the Rocks), Polis Crusher might be a sleeper hit. Remember, even without monstrous, it’s a 4/4 creature with trample (and a protection from ability) for four mana. That’s a fine body to see play.
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Rageblood Shaman |
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Starting Price: $2 Current Price: $2 Future Price (Short Term): $1 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Hurloon Minotaur that pumps other Minotaurs. I reserve total judgment on this one until we see what other Minotaurs exist on Theros, but this doesn’t have me excited on the prospects of this tribe.
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Reverent Hunter |
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Starting Price: $1.50 Current Price: $1.50 Future Price (Short Term): $2 Future Price (Medium Term): $1 Future Price (Long Term): $1 |
Turn 1 mana Elvish Mystic makes this a turn 2 3/3 creature for three mana. In my day, we called that Trained Armodon. That’s not very exciting. Turn 2 Kalonian Tusker (3/3) makes this a turn 3 4/4. This I find a little more interesting because you’re not giving up a card (the Elvish Mystic) to accelerate into a bland vanilla creature. I think Reverent Hunter’s best upside is this scenario (or one that involves a turn 1 creature that can attack, like Dryad Militant) but it’s very conditionally large.
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Thassa, God of the Sea |
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Starting Price: $17.50 Current Price: $17.50 Future Price (Short Term): $20 Future Price (Medium Term): $15 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
Of the three Gods already spoiled, Thassa is the most powerful. Blue doesn’t get 5/5 creatures at three mana, so Thassa’s body is huge. Unlike Heliod and Nylea, both of Thassa’s abilities are relevant and easy to activate. I see Thassa being the all-star chase mythic of this set because it’s useful both constructed and casual even sans becoming a 5/5 creature.
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Thoughtseize |
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Starting Price: $20 Current Price: $25 Future Price (Short Term): $30 Future Price (Medium Term): $20 Future Price (Long Term): $20 |
See Mutavault. Mutavault debuted in M14 at $15, jumped to $20, and is slowly inching back down to $15. There are going to be a lot more Thoughtseizes in circulation (Theros) than Mutavaults (M14). Look at the Return to Ravnica shocklands—they were $20-$40 for the original Ravnica block versions pre-reprint, and the majority of them are in the $10 range for the reprinted version. I expect everyone and their mothers to be getting their hands on four Thoughtseizes for Modern and Standard play, but I also expect there to be enough supply to drive the price downwards over the next year. Thoughtseize is that good, but supply will meet demand.
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Titan of Eternal Fire |
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Starting Price: $0.50 Current Price: $0.50 Future Price (Short Term): $0.50 Future Price (Medium Term): $0.50 Future Price (Long Term): $0.50 |
Finally, a bulk rare that needs no explanation!
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Underworld Cerberus |
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Starting Price: $10 Current Price: $10 Future Price (Short Term): $10 Future Price (Medium Term): $8 Future Price (Long Term): $6 |
I’m not sure what deck you’re going to want Underworld Cerberus for right now, but it’s essentially a 6/6 unblockable creature with an upside ability (no graveyard targeting) and a potential upside/downside ability (return all creatures) for five mana. That’s Titan territory, so the question is "will Cerberus see play?" My answer is yes, but I don’t think we have enough pieces of the support puzzle for the deck that would support Cerberus to make a full judgment call. For now, I’m basing my price speculation as the format exists post-rotation without other cards/sets spoiled. I’ll likely revisit Underworld Cerberus towards the end of this article series to see if it has an obvious home in Standard.
Thank you all for reading, and I’ll see you all tomorrow for the next round of preview cards!
- Ben Bleiweiss
- General Manager, StarCityGames.com