It’s the second day of my Daily Financial Value of Oath of the Gatewatch series! From now until the full set is spoiled, I’ll be posting up regular daily updates with my thoughts about the officially-spoiled cards from Oath of the Gatewatch! In today’s article, I’m going to review the few cards that were spoiled and discuss all of the expeditions in this set!
How I Review
Starting Price: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card, by the time this article was written (usually by midnight on the day of publication).
Future Price – Low: The lowest price I believe this card will hit while it is Standard legal, post-release.
Future Price – High: The highest price I believe this card will hit while it is Standard legal, post-release.
First, the regular cards in the set:
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $1
Future Price – High: $1
Thoughts: Fabricate for planeswalkers. Decent enough to see a lot of casual play and maybe some Standard play (it’s Gideon time!), which saves it from being bulk. Shouldn’t set the world on fire, but should be a solid $1 card for as long as it’s in Standard.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $1
Thoughts: There was a time when Renegade Doppelganger was played, but it quickly fell back to bulk range. I don’t think Eldrazi Mimic has a place in Standard, but I do think there’s a possibility it’s good enough to see play in the Eldrazi Temple Modern deck.
Rarity: Mythic
Starting Price: $10
Current Price: $10
Future Price – Low: $5
Future Price – High: $10
Thoughts: Worse than Dragonlord Ojutai (while Dragons of Tarkir is still in Standard). When there’s board parity (or you’re ahead), this is not a great draw at six mana. If you’re behind, it may not be enough to stabilize the board. Either way – should maintain above-bulk value due to name recognition, being an Angel, and being borderline playable. Shouldn’t make a big splash in Standard though.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $3
Future Price – Low: $2
Future Price – High: $3
Thoughts: It’s a creature-land; it’s not a very good creature-land, but it’s the one we get. Will see some play, but there has to be a Lavaclaw Reaches in every cycle.
Rarity: Uncommon
Starting Price: $2
Current Price: $1.50
Future Price – Low: $1
Future Price – High: $3
Thoughts: This is the second multi-format playable uncommon in this set (the other being Spatial Contortion). I believe that Reflector Mage may end up being the most-played Standard card in this set. In older formats, it works great with Aether Vial and blink effects (Death and Taxes). This may be the second-best Man-o’-War ever printed (behind Venser, Shaper Savant), and it’s only printed at uncommon to boot.
Pick these up now – initial supply is going to keep the price suppressed, but this is going to be a card that you play (or play against) so, so much in Standard over the coming year.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $0.50
Current Price: $0.50
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $0.50
Thoughts: Complete bulk rare.
So in
Pack Value:
2R + 1M (Each rare is printed twice against each mythic) / 96 (84 Rares/12 Mythics) * 36 (36 packs/box).
Mythics of Note ($4+)
Kozilek, the Great Distortion: $12.50
Mirrorpool: $5
Total: $42.50
Rares of Note ($2+)
Needle Spires: $3
Total: $13
2R ($26) + 1M ($42.50) = $68.50 / 96 = $0.71 value per pack or $25.56 per box.
Keep in mind that half the mythics and a majority of the rares have yet to be officially spoiled, so there’s a lot of value left to figure in these packs.
But wait, there’s more!
Oath of the Gatewatch Expeditions
So we’ll split these into two categories: Filter lands, and “Other.”
Here are the starting values of the Filter lands:
Cascade Bluffs: $120
Fetid Heath: $100
Fire-Lit Thicket: $80
Flooded Grove; $100
Graven Cairns: $70
Mystic Gate: $100
Rugged Prairie: $80
Sunken Ruins: $100
Twilight Mire: $100
Wooded Bastion: $70
Total: $920
Other:
Ancient Tomb: $120
Dust Bowl: $80
Eye of Ugin: $80
Forbidden Orchard: $60
Horizon Canopy: $150
Kor Haven: $80
Mana Confluence: $80
Strip Mine: $80
Tectonic Edge: $50
Wasteland: $300
Total: $1080
I feel that the Filter Lands will remain pretty stable in value (as did the Shocklands), so I don’t anticipate any major price movement on those post-release. Of the other lands, I think Ancient Tomb, Dust Bowl, Kor Haven, Mana Confluence, and Tectonic Edge will each lose about 20%-25% of their value in the short term. I think Strip Mine is very underpriced (the FTV version had the same trajectory – started low and then skyrocketed a couple of years down the road), so it is probably a good long-term pickup. The other cards seem to be priced about right.
The total value of the 20 Expeditions in this set equals $2,000 – so they are worth an average of $100 each. Battle for Zendikar expeditions appeared once every 3.5 boxes (or every 125ish packs) based on a large sample size of opening packs. Assuming that the Oath of the Gatewatch expeditions appear at the same rate, expeditions add $0.80 in value to a booster pack ($100 divided by 125 packs).
To adjust the above formula then:
2R ($26) + 1M ($42.50) = $68.50 / 96 = $0.71 value per pack from Rares/Mythics.
$0.80 per pack value from Expeditions.
Total pack value: $1.51 or $54.36 per box
Expeditions are going to be live for preorder in very limited quantities at the time this article goes live, so if you’re interested in them, you can find them here!
Hope everyone has a fantastic New Year celebration, and I’ll see you all on Friday!