Daily Financial Value of Magic Origins – June 23rd

With spoiler season for Magic Origins finally in full swing, Ben Bleiweiss is here to analyze the financial prospects of the set’s rares and mythics as they are officially spoiled – today’s update includes a card that shares an awful lot in common with one of the Power Nine!

Welcome to the second official day of spoiler season for Magic Origins! There are a ton of new Rares and Mythics that were spoiled last night and today – and many of them are very powerful for Standard play. Let’s dive straight into the reviews, because there’s a lot to talk about!

How I Review:

Starting Price
: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.

Current Price
: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.

Future Price – Short Term
: The price I believe this card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic Origins.

Future Price – Medium Term
: The price I believe this card will be at by the time the next set (Battle for Zendikar) comes out.

Future Price – Long Term
: The price I believe this card will be at a year from now when the first set of the second block of next year is released! (The one that is the block AFTER Battle for Zendikar block).

Dark Petition

Rarity: Rare

Starting Price: $2

Current Price: $3

Future Price (Short Term): $2

Future Price (Medium Term): $1.50

Future Price (Long Term): $2

This will be a huge casual card, but will this be good enough for Standard? Sidisi, Undead Vizier ended up in the $2 range (though it started around $5). With Sidisi, you end up with a 4/6 Deathtouch creature, Diabolic Tutor, or both. With Dark Petition, you’re ending up with either Diabolic Tutor or Diabolic Tutor plus Dark Ritual.

Objectively, I’d say Sidisi is the more powerful card. Within the confines of gameplay, having that three extra mana (which many black control decks will have, thanks to playing lots of spells) is a huge swing – you can likely both get the answer you want and cast it the same turn. Dark Petition might end up being an important part of black control decks, especially if the environment slows down with returning Eldrazi in the next block.

Day’s Undoing

Rarity: Mythic

Starting Price: $20

Current Price: $25

Future Price (Short Term): $30

Future Price (Medium Term): $10

Future Price (Long Term): $10

The immediate question is: have we been here before with Time Reversal? Is Day’s Undoing more Power Nine or more complete flop? I think that in this case, Wizards has finally, FINALLY found a really powerful card that is a worthy successor to both Wheel of Fortune and Timetwister. The cost is the same, the “End the Turn” restriction isn’t that bad if you drop your hand quicker than your opponent (see Windfall), and if you’re playing U/R Burn, playing this turn 4+ means you’ll still have mana up for things like direct damage or countermagic. Heck, even in U/G Ramp, it’s not unreasonable to cast this on turn five or six and still have mana up to cast Collected Company on your opponent’s turn.

In Eternal formats, I already see a buy-out underway for Quicken. Being able to draw seven at the end of your opponent’s turn could be nuts, but I’m not a fan of combos like this that are so dependent on getting a two-card combo off before you even start the rest of your combo.

In casual play, I can’t even imagine how back-breaking this is with Notion Thief. Because the turn ends immediately, you’d end up with 14+ cards in your hand depending on how many players are in the game – and your opponents would have none (though you will have to discard down to seven).

I’m always reluctant to recommend picking up a high-dollar card like this when a lot of what it might be trading in on is nostalgia, but I think there are so many instances where you come out ahead of your opponent on card advantage (they lose their hand, and you can come out way ahead on cards from them), that this card will be playable across virtually every format in Magic.

Displacement Wave

Rarity: Rare

Starting Price: $1

Current Price: $1

Future Price (Short Term): $0.75

Future Price (Medium Term): $0.75

Future Price (Long Term): $1

This card is a huge player for Commander. I’m not sure how good it is for Constructed play though, especially since it’s a sorcery.

Flameshadow Conjuring

Rarity: Rare

Starting Price: $1

Current Price: $1

Future Price (Short Term): $1

Future Price (Medium Term): $1

Future Price (Long Term): $1

Typically cards of this type end up either being bulk rares. I want to say that Flameshadow Conjuring is pushed really, really hard (Only {R} to activate), but I’m not sure what deck would run this card without having to build your entire deck around it. I’d put this on a “watch” list because the cost is so low compared to other cards with this effect, but I don’t think it was pushed far enough to be Constructed playable.

Honored Hierarch

Rarity: Rare

Starting Price: $10

Current Price: $20

Future Price (Short Term): $25

Future Price (Medium Term): $15

Future Price (Long Term): $10

I’m not sure I’ve seen a one-drop in recent memory which is so powerful if you actually play it on turn one and so useless if you draw it any turn afterward. If you play Honored Hierarch on the first turn in Standard, I’d say the chances are good that you can force the issue of having a 2/2 Vigilant Birds of Paradise on turn two. I’d also say that if you draw Honored Hierarch on, say, turn three or later, you’re going to end up with a 1/1 vanilla creature with very little chance of an upside.

Let’s be clear – this isn’t Noble Hierarch or Birds of Paradise. You are not assured getting mana acceleration out of Honored Hierarch, or pumping your other creatures from an Exalted trigger. I think that Honored Hierarch is going to be one of the chase Rares of the set, but will end up being a flop compared to the hype by the time Battle for Zendikar comes out.

Starfield of Nyx

Rarity: Mythic

Starting Price: $10

Current Price: $10

Future Price (Short Term): $15

Future Price (Medium Term): $5

Future Price (Long Term): $5

Starfield of Nyx’s power level is directly relatable to how long Theros is Standard-legal. As of right now, I would pretty much ignore the Opalescence clause (turning your enchantments into creatures) and focus on returning enchantments to play.

The incorrect comparison for this card is Replenish. Replenish was designed to bring back multiple cards at once, so you could basically win upon casting Replenish right away. Instead, I’d compare this card to Debtors’ Knell – a grindy card (typically played in W/B or Mono-Black) that would garner massive card advantage as the game went on. Starfield of Nyx costs two less mana than Knell and also is easily splashed. As I mentioned with the Theros Block comparison, there are so many Enchantment creatures in Theros Block worth getting back, that even if you never bring back an actual non-creature enchantment, this functions as a Debtors Knell in actual effect. For instance:

Heliod, God of the Sun Thassa, God of the Sea Nylea, God of the Hunt Erebos, God of the Dead Purphoros, God of the Forge Athreos, God of Passage Ephara, God of the Polis Iroas, God of Victory Karametra, God of Harvests Keranos, God of Storms Kruphix, God of Horizons Mogis, God of Slaughter Pharika, God of Affliction Phenax, God of Deception Xenagos, God of Revels Aegis of the Gods Agent of Erebos Boon Satyr Brain Maggot Chromanticore Courser of Kruphix Doomwake Giant Eidolon of Blossoms Eidolon of Rhetoric Eidolon of the Great Revel Fate Unraveler Herald of Torment Nyx Weaver Nyx-Fleece Ram Underworld Coinsmith

I can very much see a grindy White/X (Black? Green?) deck that dumps cards in the graveyard and then plans on using Starfield of Nyx to slowly gain massive card advantage for the rest of the game. I don’t think Starfield is fast enough to work in Modern or older formats, but I do think it’s an extremely viable strategy in Standard – especially since most of the cards above are ones that are already playable in Standard without being recursed each turn.

Tainted Remedy

Rarity: Rare

Starting Price: $1

Current Price: $1

Future Price (Short Term): $2

Future Price (Medium Term): $1.50

Future Price (Long Term): $2

See also Everlasting Torment and False Cure. As long as there are powerful Standard decks that run multiple creatures that gain life when they enter the battlefield (be it Siege Rhino, Thragtusk, or Kitchen Finks), there will be a place in the metagame for a card that not only shuts those creatures down but turns them into a liability. Should pick up steam once it starts seeing solid sideboard play in Standard and potentially Modern!

Changes Since The Last Article

Languish: From $5 to $7.50. Going rate on the market. Seems to have been acknowledged as a playable Wrath variant by the community from the get-go.

Liliana, Heretical Healer: From $20 to $25. People seem excited about playing with her plus Collected Company.

Nissa, Vastwood Seer: From $15 to $20. Might go even higher, a lot of demand for Nissa so far.

Pia and Kiran Nalaar: From $2 to $3. Despite being an Intro-pack Rare, the power level on this card may outweigh the extra supply that is going to be out there.

Pack Value

To determine the value of a booster pack, I’m going to start with the following formula:

(2R + 1M)/121

That isn’t enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don’t really amount to “real” value if you’re looking to trade with other players. So I’m omitting the value of any rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).

12 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!

Dark Petition: $3
Dwynen, Gilt-Leaf Daen: $2
Honored Hierarch: $10
Languish: $7.50
Pia and Kiran Nalaar: $3
Total Rare Value: $25.50

6 out of the 15 Mythic Rares have been spoiled!

Avaricious Dragon: $10
Day’s Undoing: $25
Kytheon, Hero of Akroas | Gideon, Battle-Forged: $25
Liliana, Heretical Healer | Liliana, Defiant Necromancer: $25
Nissa, Vastwood Seer | Nissa, Sage Animist: $20
Starfield of Nyx: $10
Total Mythic Value: $115

So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:

(2R ($25.50) + 1M ($115) )= $166

$166/121 = $1.37 value per pack, or $49.32 per box.

Based on the cards spoiled today, the value of a box of Magic Origins is nearly double where it was yesterday! There are still a ton of cards to be spoiled, so I expect that the box value will be at $100+ shortly.

Also, many retailers have reported that the initial allocations for Magic Origins are significantly lower than for previous set releases. Many are reporting that their numbers from distributors are being cut by 33%-50% against the amount of boxes shipped for Dragons of Tarkir. If this ends up being the case across the board, we may be looking at set-release demand that exceeds the ready supply for Magic Origins. I think over time there will be enough boxes to meet (and exceed, to a degree) demand, but that supply may not be there until a month after the set is initially released.

See you all tomorrow!